Reply #40: Great post but I disagree with an important part of it. [View All]

[Buck Rabbit]

The Japanese were being routed in Manchuria by the Soviets and the loss of its biggest offshore army was Japan's greatest blow to continuing the war. The tentative US invasion wasn't scheduled for November if at all. Tentative as it was considered a last resort and had no actual backing by anyone but MacArthur and the Navy was dead set against it. By November the need for an invasion would be mute anyway. The US would have an arsenal of dozens of nukes by then and frankly thousands of Soviet T34 tanks would be running around the Japenese home islands at will.

The Japanese were stunned by the Soviet attack in Manchuria, though the US knew it was coming because FDR had demanded it at Yalta and it was right on schedule, 3 months after the fall of Germany.

So I agree with your post including Truman's incentive for use of the Bombs was to get a piece of the settlement and the central role in the occupation instead of Japan becoming part of the Iron Curtain.

Where I disagree was how he used the bombs. He had time, perhaps a month maybe two, before the Soviets would be firmly on the the Japanese home Islands. In that month he would have several bombs not just two at his disposal. He had ample time to demonstrate the power of the bomb in an offshore blast and if needed the South slopes of Mt Fuji or even true military targets like coastal defense fortifications. At the same time he demonstrated its power he could have demonstrated our humanity in choice of targets. Frankly, it was stupid to not do the offshore demonstration first in case the bomb duded you wouldn't want it to land in the middle of an enemy city.

Once Russia had attacked in Manchuria and proven to be unstoppable by the Japanese military any good excuse to surrender to the Americans instead would be preferred and taken, as happened.