Reply #23: Could have happened, but insignificant [View All]

[Strelnikov_]

At my precinct caucus, in a major university town, 550 people showed up, the demographics between groups was somewhat similar.

The precinct I am in has some students (college town), but is a good mix of professionals, blue collar.

Participation was up from 385 in 2004, and that 166 person increase was sure as hell not all 'college students'. The age distribution at the caucus seemed fairly representative of what I see walking around the neighborhood. If anything, there were LESS student looking types than I would have anticipated, and this was a precinct where the bussed in college students would have been dumped.

- Edwards/Obama groups appeared to be a uniform cross section of the population.

- Richardson/Biden/Dodd groups few less younger/older, appeared to trend a bit more to Professional/Academic.

- Clinton group trended older.

The results:

550 total (385 in 2004) 83 required for viability.

1st/2nd/3rd Round (percentages in paran), Delegates

Clinton……125 (23)…..132 (24)…..147 (27)....5
Edwards….…90 (16)…..117 (21)…..127 (23)…..4
Obama…….162 (29)…...176 (32)…..179 (33)…..5
Biden………46 (8)…….34..
Dodd……….14 (3)……..0..
Kucinich……..7 (1)…….0..
NotCommit….40 (7)……0..
Richardson…..60 (11) .88 (16)…..97 (17)…..3
Gravel…………0……0

550 total final count, so everyone who came moved to a viable candidate.

So, in the end, Clinton and Obama tie (delegates). But the percent differences between Obama/Clinton/Edwards are somewhat similar to the statewide result. Richardson's strong showing in my precinct probably hurt Edwards a bit.

And as for "a lot of people coming in to participate had never been even seen before in the neighborhood" . . . 550 people in my precinct caucus, need I say more.

Also, I was one of those independents. I have voted Dem since my first vote in '80 for Carter. I generally register Independent. It's Iowa, have to cut down the robocalls somehow.

In the days leading up to the caucus, you could sense the Obama momentum. The win did not come out of the blue, and tracked fairly closely to the DMR poll a few days before the caucus.