Reply #4: Here's some analysis for what it's worth.. [View All]

[skooooo]

A Nip-And-Tuck Presidential Fight For Georgia ... Senate Race Likely Headed To Runoff

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/restricted/2008/November%202008/11-03-08/Election_Eve_Poll11319643.php

“The percentage of the overall African-American vote on election day will likely be 30 percent or higher. How do we know this? First, an analysis of the counties where we have seen the most vigorous early voting runs contrary to conventional wisdom – that early voting has been primarily African-American. Some of the most vigorous early voting has been in extreme north Georgia, where there is virtually no African-American population. Rabun County, for example, has very few African-American voters, yet it was one of the highest in early voter turnout. An analysis around the state shows that trend is not unusual. In areas like Fulton, DeKalb, Richmond, Chatham and Muscogee, which have an extremely high percentage of African-American voters, they have yet to even produce the majority of their African-American vote. And with the African-American vote at 35 percent at the conclusion of early voting, that percentage, in our judgment, will drop – but nowhere near to 26 percent and very likely above 30 percent.

“McCain will win Georgia if the African-American turnout is less than 32 percent of the overall vote and if Obama’s percentage of the white vote is 26 percent or less. If the turnout for African-Americans is at or above 32 percent or if Obama carries, say, 28 percent of the white vote, then Obama wins. So this will be a nip-and-tuck race. It will not be a 7-point blow out.