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American consumers crushed by job losses
Retail sales data to show a sixth consecutive month of declines

By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- With almost 2.6 million job losses last year, American consumers, once seen as unflappable, pulled back.

On Wednesday, the government is scheduled to report retail sales for December, and economists expect a record sixth consecutive month of declines. While falling gas prices have relieved consumers to some extent, job losses are pinning down confidence to near-record lows, which translates to weak spending, wrote analysts with CIBC World Markets.

"With the U.S. economy in the throes of its first consumer-led recession since the early 1990s, the 2008 holiday sales season has surely been a dud," according to CIBC. "With so many economic indicators pointing to a horrible fourth quarter no one expects this report to bring anything but bad news. The only real debate is how horrible it will be."

Analysts polled by MarketWatch are expecting a drop in retail sales of 1.7% for December, following a decline of 1.8% in November. Excluding autos, analysts are looking for a decline of 1.9%, compared with 1.6% in the prior month.

"Tumbling household net worth, rising unemployment and depressed consumer confidence continue to have an adverse impact on spending," wrote Bank of America analysts in a research note.

On Friday, consumer sentiment results come out for early January from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey. Although the reading improved in December, it remained at relatively low levels with consumers reporting that lower prices provided some needed relief, but continued job losses and income declines were worrisome. Analysts polled by MarketWatch expect the January data to retreat. ........(more)

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