Reply #8: The argument is not about the number of bombs... [View All]

[spin]

but about the safety, reliability and security of the warheads.

Nor is the argument about preventing war with terrorists. Terrorists are not deterred by nuclear weapons. Even if we knew for certain where bin Laden was hiding, we would never drop a nuclear weapon on him. He knows that. Using a nuclear weapon against a terrorist or a terrorist group would be like using a 105 mm howitzer against a rattlesnake in your back yard. You might kill the snake but the neighbors and the authorities would be upset to say the least. Consider how much heat has been generated by the recent Predator Drone attacks on terrorists in North and South Waziristan. Twenty two people died, some were terrorists but many were civilians.

The only purpose of our nuclear arsenal is deterrence. MAD (Mutually assured destruction) was the name of the game. I agree that we never had any intention of occupying the Soviet Union. We did feel there was a possibility of a war in Europe in which the Russians could have won in a short period of time. I'm sure they seriously considered the possibility that we might go nuclear to prevent their advance. Realizing the consequences, they decided not to attack Europe. Not only would Europe have been a been a nuclear wasteland, their homeland would have been obliterated.

So, in my opinion MAD prevented a Third World War. Nuclear weapons might have actually worked as a deterrent.

But if we fail to upgrade our warheads and there is actually a problem with older warheads, the scientists of a opposing nation might realize this. If they seriously believe that the majority of our warheads will be duds but that theirs will work, they may feel confident in confronting our nation or our conventional forces with the threat of nuclear annihilation. We may comply with any demands they make because we lack confidence in our own nuclear weapons performance.

Let's use an Old West analogy. You are an old gunfighter. In you prime years, you were so good that no one in their right mind would challenge you. But you still carry the old black powder pistol that you used years ago. While you keep it loaded, it's been several years since you actually fired it. In fact, you have never reloaded it since you last fired it. The powder might have got damp. You have a serious problem with a man with the more modern Peacemaker revolver. You might just end up in a shootout with him. He knows his revolver is reliable and knows that yours will more than likely go pop rather than bang. Is your handgun and your ability going to deter him? If you're wise you might invest in a new handgun. or at the minimum clean and reload your weapon.

But I was also concerned with the safety of the warheads. I'm not entirely sure what Gates was talking about. If they are not safe could it mean they might explode like some old unstable ordinance from WWII? Plus Gates mentioned security. Does that mean that someone who managed to obtain one might be able to bypass the safety features and use it as a weapon?

We need to keep our nuclear deterrent up to date to achieve deterrence. The object is not to use these weapons, the object is to NEVER have to use these weapons.

We need enough of these weapons to be certain that no enemy can be certain that he can eliminate all of them. If we place all of our nuclear weapons on submarines and the enemy develops the technology to find those submarines and destroy them before we can launch, our deterrence fails. Therefore, we need multiple methods of delivering our weapons. Each of these methods should be capable of delivering an divesting blow. We should also consider developing the most accurate delivery systems possible so that we can reduce the payload of our weapons. We also need to develop warheads which will penetrate far enough to destroy any hardened bunkers the enemy might have. This might require more than 500 warheads, but I agree that 4000 is a bit much.

I often think that the test of a civilization is the ability to avoid destroying itself through warfare. If we can survive this test and learn to use our technology for peaceful purposes, we may someday travel to the stars and meet other civilizations who managed to pass the same test.