Bird flu epidemic could kill as many as 750,000 in Britain: estimate

[truthpusher]

Tuesday March 22, 09:40 PM
-----------------------------
Bird flu epidemic could kill as many as 750,000 in Britain: estimate
-----------------------------
LONDON (AFP) - Hundreds of thousands of people may die and one quarter of the work force could be absent if Britain were hit by a bird flu pandemic, a senior government official said.

"It may be somewhere between 20,000 and 750,000 extra deaths and it may be 25 percent of the population off work," the government official, speaking on a non-attributable basis, told a conference in London.

"That is the shape of the event we are going to have to deal with," he said.

Britain's population is nearly 60 million people, with 28 million working, according to government figures.

Contingency plans already announced by Britain's health department include the stockpiling of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu at a cost of 200 million pounds (380 million dollars, 290 million euros).

more: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/050322/323/fet4l.html

[Trillo]

1. Feel the FEAR yet? nt

[kskold]

6. What if I do?

Okay - what if I do feel the Fear? What do you expect me to do with it?

I can already live for several weeks on the food in my pantry, fridge and freezer if I'm supposed to quarantine myself from the world. I can't flu-proof my job. My boss does publicity for faires - when the flu hits the faires get closed. I'll fall back on my parents' help and regroup from there. There's no vaccine to stand in line for this time - at least not yet.

My "plan" right now is to ignore it until it hits, and deal with it when it does. What are your plans? What are you doing that you think we should be?

Kristen Skold
long-time lurker, occasional poster

[Trillo]

8. This article explains a model that is hypothetical.

If it does happen, if everyone were to self-quarantine themselves, then what would be the effect?

My plans? If it had been 200 or more years ago, I would have headed for the hills, escape to an unpopulated area. Now, that isn't an option in the U.S., which is where I am. The unpopulated areas are all private property or government land that's highly restricted in its use.

If complete self-quarantine were a smart option to follow under a scenario of epidemic, would that en masse action be allowed, for all, by the powers that be? Would the debts that surely would be incurred be waived by the debtors?

If I were to self-quarantine, I would certainly not collect or send any snail mail.

Welcome to DU Kristen.

[pandemic_1918]

76. Real Transmission X 5

If you want real transmission, check out the family of five hospitalized in Haiphong

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=au&ie=UTF-8&filter=0&q=bird%20flu%20haiphong%20vietnam

[pandemic_1918]

83. Pandemic Potential in Haiphong Cluster

The cluster of five hospitalized family members in Haiphong has some clear cut pandemic potential

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&q=bird+flu+pandemic+cluster

[pandemic_1918]

85. Details on Haiphong Five - More Concerns

More detail on Haiphong Five (and more concern)

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&filter=0&q=haiphong+h5n1+transmission+sang

[pandemic_1918]

115. Haiphong Five are Positive - Pandemic Has Started

The official start of the flu pandemic was signaled today when all five family members in Haiphong tested positive for H5N1

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&q=h5n1+haiphong+family+five+child

[pandemic_1918]

108. North Korea Bird Flu Pandemic Potential

North Korea has verified rumors that it has a bird flu outbreak. Political and genetic instability is VERY high, raising pandemic potential

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=in&ie=UTF-8&q=bird+flu+korea+pandemic

[illflem]

2. I've heard estimates of 15 million dead worldwide

but it's BS, vaccines are being developed already.
Just more media fear mongering.

[Avalux]

5. You're wrong

and it isn't fear mongering. It's nature - viruses do these things and we can't successfully stop it. Just the way it is.

[NNN0LHI]

14. I have been warned that we are due for a flu pandemic since 1955

What happened to the West Nile Virus and the deadly swarm of African killer bees that were going to kill millions of Americans? That was all bullshit too. I am more worried about Osama in his scuba gear slithering out of Lake Michigan attacking me here in Chicago with a fucking spear gun. Know what I mean?

Don

[Avalux]

15. I do know what you mean -

but I happen to know a little bit about viruses. I'm in the middle of it every day and a pandemic is indeed quite possible. If you'd like a technical explanation, I'll give you one.

[NNN0LHI]

17. I have a sneaking feeling I am going to get that technical explanation

Whether I want it or not. So go ahead and let me have have it. I have to be honest though and admit that I have toothpicks holding my eyelids open I am so tired right now. Long day today. My cat and two dogs shagged my ass out of bed at 5:30 AM for their breakfast. So if I don't read it tonight I promise I will in the morning. But if you put me through all this and then we still don't have no pandemic I am going to be really pissed. I am only joking about being pissed. :D And thanks in advance for the information. Take care and see you later. :hi:

Don

[Avalux]

25. Info to follow - will pm you later this AM -

:hi:

[Art_from_Ark]

18. Remember the swine flu scare?

It was going to turn into a pandemic, back in 1975

And Legionnaire's Disease was going to be the ultimate potential killer in 1976, lurking in air conditioning systems in hotels across the US of A

Been there, done that

[Media_Lies_Daily]

19. Sigh. We always get one of these posts when avian flu comes up....

As far as the swine flu "scare" goes, Ford needed something to make himself look presidential, so he jumped out there with a typical GOP scare tactic that we should all be familiar with at this point in time. It backfired, big-time, and he looked like a horse's butt. It didn't help Ford that he had pardoned Tricky Dick earlier, either.

Hey, Ford was very good at developing fictional stories...just look at his work for the Warren Commission!

Legionnaire's Disease was never discussed in terms of an epidemic, much less a pandemic.

You don't come even close to "been there, done that". You haven't "been there, done that" unless you caught the flu in 1918 and survived. I had a great-uncle who survived the 1918 Pandemic...he was in a US Army camp getting set to be shipped over to Europe when the Pandemic hit the US...so he definitely qualified for "been there, done that". You don't.

Oh, by the way, the 1918 Pandemic had a lethality rate of less than 5%, but it killed 50 million people worldwide. That means that it had to have infected close to 1 billion people before it simply mutated and moved on to who knows where.

The Avian Flu is killing 70-75% of the people it infects. And since we seem to have encountered the same unwillingness to self-report in Vietnam as we encountered with SARS in China, we don't know where the disease has spread, and we don't know how many may be carrying the disease even as we speak. Since it has a 10-day limit before symptoms begin to present, we have no idea how many people have been exposed to the CURRENT mutation of the virus. Just wait until the virus mutates into something that speads more easily from human to human.

[Art_from_Ark]

27. Been there, done that

means I've heard the hype about the next big threat to my health, whether it's swine flu, or the Spanish flu, or Legionnaire's disease, or hepatitis C, or AIDS, or ebola, or E. coli, or West Nile Virus, or SARS. It's nearly always media sensationalism. Where do the vast majority of outbreaks occur? In 3rd World countries. Why? Because the food is often tainted, the health care systems suck, and the sanitation standards suck.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

32. And everything is just hunky-dory here in the states, right?...

How many people no longer have health insurance? How many people are living so far below the poverty line in America that would never have a chance with a disease like Avian Flu? I bet most of those 50-60 million people think that our health systems suck.

Tainted food? How about all of the chemicals that we now have throughout our food system? Ever hear of the human form of "Mad Cow" disease? Do a little Google search and you might be surprised at the number of people that now have this irreversible, totally fatal disease?

But, hey...thanks for responding in such an intelligent and thoughtful manner. Better luck next time.

[Art_from_Ark]

36. Sure, the American health care system sucks

but it's still nowhere near Third World levels. Sure, American food contains chemical junk, but it doesn't contain the sort of bacterial contaminants that a lot of Third World food does. And the American sanitation system is, overall, far better than what is available in most of the Third World. In short, contaminated environments, contaminated food, and contaminated water make one more suceptible to disease.

Wake me up when the next media-hyped pandemic scare occurs.

:boring:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

82. You better do some REAL homework on those things that you believe....

...don't exist in the States.

Don't worry about being awake when the next Pandemic strikes....you'll be living in the same nightmare as the rest of us.

[NNN0LHI]

29. 1918 Pandemic? Antibiotics were not discovered until 1929

And even though antibiotics are not effective for the treatment of viruses such as the flu, how many of those people died from complications associated with the flu in 1918? For instance how many of those people died from Pneumonia or other maladies associated with having the flu which could have easily been treated successfully with antibiotics in 1918 do you think?

And here you say "The Avian Flu is killing 70-75% of the people it infects. And since we seem to have encountered the same unwillingness to self-report in Vietnam as we encountered with SARS in China, we don't know where the disease has spread, and we don't know how many may be carrying the disease even as we speak."

Now think about what you just posted for a moment. If we don't know as you say "how many may be carrying the disease even as we speak", just how would you conclude that "Avian Flu is killing 70-75% of the people it infects"?

Do you see a little problem with that statement?

Don

[Media_Lies_Daily]

31. You may see a "problem" with my comments, but I confess that I don't....

...have a clue why you profess to be so confused.

I thought that my post was written to be understandable by almost anyone the reads or writes in English. Yes, of all of the people that have been reported to have been infected with the disease, 70-75% have died from the disease. What is it about that statement that you either don't understand, or don't want to understand?

And yes, because of the long incubation period of about 10+ days, people can very well be carrying the disease to another country before they become ill themselves. Again, what is it about that statement that you either don't understand, or don't want to understand?

And finally, yes, I believe that the Vietnamese waited too long to cooperate with WHO, and to begin to find out how far the disease has spread in their country. That would mean, by default, that we don't know how many may be carrying the disease even as we speak, would it not? Additionally, they have recently tested the brain tissue of a child that died last year of an undetermined cause...three guesses what they found? So, what is it about those statements that you either don't understand, or don't want to understand?

And what difference does it make that we now have antibiotics, when we don't know what form the Avian Flu will take when it begins to easily infect humans? The 1918 Pandemic killed 5% of those it infected, and we didn't have antibiotics. The Avian Flu is killing 70-75% of those it infects, and they ARE being treated with antibiotics.

Are you starting to get the picture or do you want to come back at me with another condescending set of comments?

Maybe you're the one that ought to think about what you're posting.

[NNN0LHI]

33. So you DON'T know how many people have been infected by the disease...

...but you DO know the death rate is 70-75% of those infected? How you know that?

Let me give you an example. I would say that I probably have been bitten by a West Nile virus carrying mosquito in the past years. But my symptoms were so mild (sniffles, and a runny nose perhaps?) that I didn't even see a doctor and my own body fought it off with no complications. And that same exact mosquito may have bitten someone else with a lowered immunity level and perhaps died from it.

How many people have had the Avian flu virus and never seen a doctor or were admitted to hospital in Asia? Thousands? Hundreds of thousands? Millions? We just don't know. Do you understand what I am trying to say here?

Same thing with the 1918 Pandemic. How many deaths can be directly attributed to the flu? How many died from complications such as Pneumonia (which can be cured today with a three day regime of antibiotics that were not available in 1918?) or one of the many other complications that people became susceptible to from having the flu? We will never know the answer to this question.

Don

[NNN0LHI]

35. Almost forgot

We also can't discount that in 1918 a 45 year old man was considered elderly, while today a 45 year old man is considered damned near a young boy. There are a lot of variables here that we need to consider before we begin making comparisons to a pandemic that happened in 1918 and flu epidemic that were to occur today. It really is like trying to compare apples to oranges I think. I hope I didn't offend you.

Don

[pandemic_1918]

42. Apples to Apples

Actually, there are more similarities between 1918 and 2005 than dissimilarities. One of the characteristics about 1918 was the suddenness of death. Anecdotal notes on people dying on subway ride and while playing bridge. No antibiotic help there. the case fatality rate for H5N1 is actually about 10X HIGHER than 1918 pandemic flu and that's in hospitals that have available staff. in a pandemic situation, doctors and nurse will be dead or over-run with patients. Many victims in a pandemic never get to a hospital room.

Today the antivirals are limited, vaccine trials are just beginning and the number of bacterial meningitis cases from H3N2 California is strikingly common, especially in students and young adults.

More remarkable is the fact that WHO has no idea where H5N1 is and isn't

http://news.google.com/news?q=bird+flu+cambodia+death&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=nn&oi=newsr

[NNN0LHI]

43. The death rate you provided is based on KNOWN cases of H5N1

Isn't it? How many UNKNOWN cases were there where the person had some minor symptoms such as a runny nose, a cough, and sore throat, but recovered on their own without even seeking medical care? Could that number be in the thousands or even the millions? You don't know the answer to that question. Do you?

So your suggestion that "H5N1 is actually about 10X HIGHER than 1918 pandemic flu" may be only a guess on your part. Isn't that the truth?

Now if you are privy to some scientific evidence suggesting otherwise, lets see it. I am open minded. But on the other hand, if this is based only on your opinion, please say so.

Don

[pandemic_1918]

58. Only The Shadow Knows

You can say all case fatality rates are really lower because of unknown cases (in any disease). Your argument (and WHO's) is nonsense. There was a study of over 600 respiratory cases in Thailand and none had evidence of H5N1 RNA or antibodies.

It's also pretty clear than many fatalities are never tested. In the recent cases, the index case in the central highlands was never tested. Neither was the index case in Cambodia. In fact there are over a dozen familial clusters and most of the time the index case was never tested or initially tested negative. In all cases the index case died and a family member was H5N1 positive (and most of them died also).

Case fatality rates, as normally calculated, is 60-70% (although there is a difference in the north and south this season - in the south, including Cambodia, the case fatality rate is 100% - there are no reported discharges of confirmed cases).

[NNN0LHI]

66. Yea, sure. The World Health Organization is made up of a bunch of idiots

But we are all supposed to believe whatever you say is gospel. Right pandemic_1918? :eyes:

Don

[pandemic_1918]

68. Any Examples of Illness Where All Cases Are Known?

You made the statement. Let's have some facts. You said the case fatality rate was off because of unknown cases. Name an illness where there are no unknown cases.

WHO is working on controlling H5N1 via press release. The case fatality rate nonsense is just more PR.

I backed up my comments with facts.

You just play games.

Do you really think WHO knows where H5N1 is and is not?

[NNN0LHI]

44. So is it Apples to Apples as you suggested pandemic_1918?

Just curious.

Don

[Warren Stupidity]

86. huh?

Care to back up that assertion there that "in 1918 a 45 year old man was considered elderly"? I could be wrong, but I suspect that you will not be able to do so.

[NNN0LHI]

87. Sure. If you need more try Google

http://allfreeessays.com/student/Diseases.html

<snip>At the beginning of the 20th century, people in the United States had an average life span of about 50 years. By the time the century neared its close, average life span had risen to 76 years. Other developed countries experienced similar increases. Much of the credit for these longer life spans, and for the good health that accompanies them, is due to the conquering of diseases, thanks to vaccines, antibiotics, sophisticated surgical tools, and other medical miracles. The challenges ahead include bringing the benefits of this medical knowledge to all peoples of the world, and expanding on current knowledge in order to understand, treat, and prevent the diseases that still confront us.

[Warren Stupidity]

88. You've made a mistake.

Average life span says absolutely nothing about what is 'elderly' and what is not. You have to go to acuarial tables for getting at that information. Average lifespan stats are skewed by childhood and infant death rates. Your claim was that a 45 year old man in 1918 was considered 'elderly' and that is simply not true.

For example, life expectency at age 65 in 1900 was 11.9 years. In 1997 it was 17.7 - an increase of 5.8 years but not a statistic that supports your contention that "a 45 year old man in 1918 was considered 'elderly'".

See an example here:
http://www.efmoody.com/estate/lifeexpectancy.html
scroll down to Indicator 12: Life Expectancy for the breakout by decade and by age.

[NNN0LHI]

89. Depends on what "your" definition of elderly is. Here is the definition

http://www.answers.com/elderly&r=67

eld·er·ly adj.

1. Being past middle age and approaching old age; rather old. See Usage Note at old.

2. Of, relating to, or characteristic of older persons or life in later years.

[Warren Stupidity]

94. fine but

the claim that 45 in 1918 was 'old' because average life expectancy at birth in 1918 was 45 is a misuse of statistics.

Yes we all know what the word 'elderly' means. What you have not established at all, as you cannot, is that in 1918 a 45 year old man would be considered elderly.

[NNN0LHI]

96. If that is your opinion, wonderful. And thank you for your time n/t

[NickB79]

99. The average lifespan was low because of childhood deaths

Not because most adults died by the age of 45. Many, many children died either at birth or while still young due to diseases, but if you made it past your teens, you could often expect to live into your 50's, 60's or even 70's in some areas. The abnormally high death rate for children of the time who lacked vaccines, and women in childbirth lacking medical care skews the lifespan downward and gives a false impression of when people died.

[NNN0LHI]

100. It wasn't all due childhood deaths

There was no medications for high blood pressure, high cholesterol, heart disease, etc. There was no such thing as heart bypass surgery, skin grafts after severe burns, chemotherapy for cancer, kidney dialysis, heart transplants, kidney transplants, lung transplants, or any organ replacements, and about a thousand other medical procedures not available then. You didn't get no physical, or swallowing therapy after having a stroke. You couldn't swallow your food after having a stroke you died. Antibiotics had not even been invented yet. How many people in a America died of tuberculosis at the turn of the century? Cut your hand off at work or on a farm in an accident there were no trauma centers to be rushed to and get no blood transfusions. Cut your hand off and you died. It was common for people to die from gum disease back then. If you had epilepsy like I do there were no medications to control that. Have a seizure or two and you would find yourself in an insane asylum...until you died. Anyone who thinks the increase in life span expectancy was all due to childhood deaths is not dealing with reality.

Don

[NurseLefty]

38. Sure, there can be secondary bacterial infections, BUT

pneumonia that results from a virus is caused by the virus PERIOD, and antibiotics can't do diddly squat for that!
All of the lamenting about the scares over the years: Count yourselves lucky, for two possible reasons: (1) either the virus was not virulent enough to cause a pandemic and/or (2)EFFECTIVE PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES PREVENTED THE SPREAD.
Public health is sorely overlooked in these situations. Is is public health that implements programs to monitor disease (epidemiology), and informs/educates the public/coordinates w/ health care re: containments of infectious disease outbreak. It is the red-headed stepchild in government spending, in spite of the fact that it's fundmental to homeland security!
What is troubling about the avian flu - it mutates rapidly (thus immunization becomes instantly obsolete), and it has an existing history of being lethal in the humans it has infected.
Epidemiologists have said we have been long overdue for a pandemic of this type. If it happens, God help us all. If it doesn't, BE THANKFUL that nature or public health interventions have spared you!

[NNN0LHI]

41. I wasn't talking about pneumonia that results from a virus

I never suggested viral pneumonia was treatable with an antibiotic regime. I was talking about this much more common form of pneumonia described below:

Bacterial bronchitis and pneumonia

This occurs when bacteria causes a secondary infection in the lungs. It is far more common than the pure viral pneumonia mentioned above. It often occurs a few days after the worst influenza symptoms are over, thus appearing to be a "relapse".

Fever reappears along with a cough that produces sputum. Usually one of the following bacteria (Pneumococci, Staphylococci, Streptococci, and Haemophilus influenzae type B) is responsible, and can be treated with an antibiotic.

Some doctors recommend people in high risk groups to be vaccinated against pneumococcal pneumonia as well.

http://www.health24.com/medical/Condition_centres/777-792-811-1873,16586.asp

My point was how many people died this much more common form of pneumonia in 1918? How many of those who died would not have died had antibiotic's or a vaccination been in available 1918? Or perhaps from one of the many other complications associated with having the flu that were not treatable or even identifiable in 1918? Do you agree?

Also if you know, what have the Epidemiologists who you quote who have said "that we have been long overdue for a pandemic of this type" based on? Were their assertions based on some sort of scientific evidence? Or the laws of probability? Or perhaps something entirely different? I have asked this before, but I never seem to get an answer. I would appreciate if you could answer this question. Thanks in advance.

Don

[Silverhair]

48. You may want to educated yourself about the 1918 flu.

I can recommend a very good book: "The Great Influenza" by John M Barry.

Very few of those who died were killed by follow on pneumonia. The 1918 flu selectively killed the most healthy in the population. The greatest fatalities were in the 16-25 year olds, and the greatest in that range were pregnant women. It killed by provoking an extreme over reaction of the immune system, so that the stronger the immune system that you had, the more at risk you were.

Your comments about the reliability of the statistical data are correct however.

[NNN0LHI]

53. Of course the greatest fatalities were in the 16-25 year old range

But we need to keep in mind that the average life span was only 49 years old at the turn of the century. The majority of the active population was between 16-25 years old. And when one became much older than that they were elderly, didn't leave their houses too much, and became inactive, just as many of our 80 year olds are doing today. Except they were without the benefit of everyone owning a car or two like today so therefore they could not get out and about to become exposed to influenza like our elderly do now. Our elderly population wouldn't get out much either if they had to go through hooking up the horses to the wagon anytime they wanted to go somewhere.

I am 50 years old yet I just got back from driving almost 60 miles to go out for lunch. I was just exposed to over a hundred different people in the last couple of hours. How many 50 year olds do you think were doing were that in 1918? Not many, if any. So therefore the majority of the people who would die would naturally have to be in the 16-25 year old range range. They were the ones being exposed to influenza.

In the United States, influenza infections over the past 10 years have resulted in an average of 36,000 deaths and 114,000 hospitalizations each year, and the WHO estimates that the annual average number of deaths worldwide is approximately 500,000.

Now that is the human form of influenza I am talking about there. Now compare that number to the few who have died from the Avian form. I bet more people die from choking on their lunch each year than die from Avian flu. But we don't see any headlines about that.

I agree someone needs to constantly monitor this situation. The WHO does that. But I don't think it does any of us any good to become hysterical about this when we begin to look at the entire picture of whats going on around us. That is all I am trying to say here.

Don

[Silverhair]

54. Your conjectures are wrong.

In 1918, people of ALL ages got the flu, but the deaths spiked in the age group of the healthiest part of the population. Autopsies showed sudden and extreme lung damage. The flu killed by provoking an over reaction of the immune system. There were many cases of people that were healthy at breakfast and dead at noon. Those with lesser immune systems survived the flu, but were miserably sick.

You are making the mistake of assuming that it was equally lethal in all age groups and that contagion was equal in all age groups. Contagion was about equal, but lethality was selective.

Might I suggest reading up on the 1918 flu?

[NNN0LHI]

55. Your theory would only hold true if the older people were to become exposed

My theory is that they did not become exposed so there is no way they could have died from influenza.

Don

[Silverhair]

59. I am relying on actual reports.

Read "The Great Influenza" by John M. Barry. Then get back with me.

What I am saying is NOT theory, it is established FACT. Very well documented FACT. That flu killed by provoking an extreme reaction of the immune system. So otherwise healthier immune systems were the first to die.

[NNN0LHI]

67. Keep in mind that when you say "relying on actual reports" that...

...these "actual reports" came from anyone who said they were a doctor at the time. In 1918 anyone could be a doctor. Didn't need any medical license. I could have read a couple of books and claimed I was a doctor in 1918. So could you have. We could have both been operating on patients in a hospital if thats what we wanted to do back then. We wouldn't have actually had to have any medical training. We could have just started calling ourselves doctors and that would have been the end of that. There would have been no questions asked. Barbers were still removing bullets and doing dentistry in 1918.

Don

[pandemic_1918]

63. Hysteria

If you look at the situation you will get hysterical. If you don't, you won't. WHO has already given details on why a pandemic is inevitable and why it could be as bad or worse than 1918. H5N1 has a case fatality rate 10X higher than 1918 pandemic flu. It has been broadening its host range and now infects several mammalian species. It can grow to high titers in asymptomatic ducks and has become endemic to Southeast Asia.

Vaccine development is just starting and its only on one strain (two isolates that are virtually identical). Antivirals are in VERY short supply and unproven in pandemic conditions. Most hospitals have little surge capacity and can be quickly overwhelmed, especially if health care workers start dying.

Vaccine can't even be made in quantity for H3N2 (and it still kills students via meningococcemia extremely quickly and efficiently).

[NNN0LHI]

64. No. I have already carefully looked at the situation...

...and I will not get hysterical over what I have seen to this point. Thanks and take care.

Don

[pandemic_1918]

69. Name A Scientists

Name one scientist who has seriously looked at bird flu recently and isn't very concerned.

[NNN0LHI]

57. You said "Very few of those who died were killed by follow on pneumonia"

I just did some research of my own which conflicts with your statement and seems to confirm what I have been suggesting may have actually happened. Now I am really confused? Where did you get that information from if you don't mind me asking? Did you get that out of the book you wanted me to read? (I think the snip below is from that book?) Or was that conjecture on your part? Thanks in advance.

Don

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6315717/site/newsweek /

<snip>The 1918 flu—variant H1N1—spread with terrifying speed; in six days at a single Army base, Barry writes, the hospital census went from 610 to more than 4,000. It killed with devastating swiftness: pedestrians literally collapsed in the street; people woke up healthy and were dead by nightfall. It attacked multiple organs in the body, but always the respiratory system first, laying waste to the defenses by which the body keeps pathogens out of the lungs. Most victims succumbed to a secondary infection of bacterial pneumonia, for which there was no treatment in 1918. But in other cases, the virus was fatal in itself. Multiplying explosively throughout the respiratory tract, it provoked an immune response so furious that it devastated the lung's delicate tissues. And it was those deaths that explained H1N1's unique terror. Influenza typically kills the very young and the old, whose immune systems are too weak to fight it off, but Spanish flu killed young men and women in the prime of life.

[Silverhair]

61. I will have to search for the quote.

That is the book. Notice this sentence in the paragraph you have:

"Multiplying explosively throughout the respiratory tract, it provoked an immune response so furious that it devastated the lung's delicate tissues."

It may take some time to find the quotes I need from the book. Don't expect a fast response from me on that one.

[NNN0LHI]

62. There is no rush. Take care and see you later on n/t

[NNN0LHI]

78. Any luck on that search there Silverhair?

Was your statement conjecture or something you read somewhere perhaps?

Don

[Media_Lies_Daily]

81. Why would Silverhair waste his time responding....

...to your rather insulting posts? You appear to have some real issues, and that's based on the fact that this is not the only subject where you have engaged others with insulting remarks.

[Silverhair]

90. Haven't started searching yet. I will.

I have been busy with two things.

I have been doing a lot of posting in a peak oil thread about thermal depolymerization.

I have had to get back to work. DU tends to take up a lot of time and I needed to work. I am self employed playing poker on the internet.

[Silverhair]

91. OK, found it.

Pages 238 to 241.

[NNN0LHI]

92. Thank you. What does it say if you don't mind me asking?

Does the book claim that "Very few of those who died were killed by follow on pneumonia"?

Or does the book claim that "Most victims succumbed to a secondary infection of bacterial pneumonia, for which there was no treatment in 1918"?

And good luck with the job too. I have never been much of a gambler. I found it to be too stressful. I always felt like crap afterwords regardless of whether I won or lost. Gave it up decades ago.

Don

[Silverhair]

93. It documents that the flu killed selectively.

I can't post several pages here. If you really want to read them I can scan them and send them to you. PM me with your email address if you like.

Poker was something I kind of got forced into as an occupation. I used to be a truck driver and played poker at casino as a recreation. I was a math major in college so I understood how probability worked. I bought the books and learned how be good at it, so my recreation became profitable. A few years later I had to give up trucking due to health problems. I lived in Bilox, MS, got a job, and played in the casinos there when I wasn't working. I discovered that I could make more money at poker than I could at a "real job". Now I live outside Dallas and do the same on the internet.

[NNN0LHI]

95. I really don't want you to go through all that trouble for me

I really wasn't concerned about the selectivity aspect of the flu during the Pandemic of 1918-19. I have my own theory on that.

I was just wondering what the answer was to the question that I asked concerning what most people actually died from. Does the author suggest that the majority of people actually died from the flu, or does he suggest that most deaths were due to secondary bacterial pneumonia that was not treatable in 1918-19 due to the lack of antibiotics that were not available back then? If you don't want to answer that specific question it is alright.

Again, good luck with the job and see you later.

Don

[Silverhair]

98. It's an "area under the curve" problem.

That's my term. When the total deaths of all ages are considered, then secondary infections becomes the dominate cause of death. But there is a huge spike in the age distributions of deaths that is in the young and healthy. In that group, it killed directly by over stimulation of the immune system.

Here is a link for the total death rate charted:

http://www.healthsentinel.com/graphs.php?tablename=graphcategories&id=5&event=graphcats_print_list_item

Here is an excellent scientific site on the age distributions of the deaths:

"The original purpose of our study was to examine the unusual W-shaped mortality curve associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic and possibly explain the peak in mortality among individuals aged 20-40 years."

http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/CID/journal/issues/v33n8/001674/001674.text.html

Here is another one. Requires Adobe http://www1.od.nih.gov/oir/DemystifyingMed/HIV/taubenberger.pdf

[NNN0LHI]

102. Silverhair. The second link you provided gives another hypothesis...

...as to why the younger and seemingly more healthy portion of the population appeared to be more susceptible to the Spanish flu. One that I never even considered. Take a look here:

http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/CID/journal/issues/v33n8/001674/001674.text.html

<snip>Schoenbaum, in reviewing the 1918 pandemic, notes that "persons age 2040 accounted for the bulk of the excess deaths" and goes on to say that "compared to this bulge among younger people, the elderly were relatively spared." He explains this mortality pattern with a hypothesis similar to our own, stating, "There may have been some population factors associated with this unusual pattern of morbidity and mortality, the most likely being that the elderly may have been relatively protected by prior exposure to a strain with a similar surface antigen." Our data provide evidence to support this hypothesis.

One possible limitation in these analysis may be the use of yearly data instead of weekly data. Because the 1918 pandemic started in the middle of the year and lasted into 1919, our use of 1917 as the baseline may not have been as accurate as the use of the true baseline of the winter of 19171918. Another limitation resulting from the use of yearly data may be the late reporting of deaths. Glezen has questioned the validity of the use of the prepandemic year as a baseline, because the baseline period may not have been free of influenza activity.

Our reexamination of the mortality data from influenza pandemics in the 20th century pries open the black box of the 1918 pandemic a little further. A complete picture of the contents of the black box and an explanation for the unique pattern of age-specific mortality is still lacking. A seroepidemiologic study of serum specimens collected before the 20th century might shed light on the issue of prior immunity and provide a better understanding of the lack of excess mortality among elderly individuals in the 1918-1920 period.

It appears that the elderly may have been inadvertently immunized from prior exposure to a strain with a similar surface antigen. Now that I find very interesting. I realize that is only a hypothesis, but it sure makes sense to me. I doubt it was the only factor involved here but I would be willing to bet it was at least a contributing factor to some extent. Thanks a lot for that link. It really got me thinking. Now I wonder if the same thing could be happening in Asia with the Avian strain? Makes me wonder if there are many people in Asia who may also be immunized to some extent from the deadly effects of Avian flu from past exposures? Again, thank you. Take care and see you later.

Don

[Silverhair]

103. I noticed that.

However, to me it seems to have some problems. It does not explain why there was a lower death rate among children. They would not have the prior immunity. Further, old folks did get sick with it, they just didn't die like the peak group did. The death rate chart should show a sudden change that would correspond to the age of the youngest survivor of the earlier flu. It think Barry's explanation is the better one as it corresponds with the autopsies and with the preserved samples. We have lots of samples of their tissues that are still around in storage.

Get Barry's book and give it a read. Aside from the flu stuff he gives a lot of information on the politics of the time, and of the medical history leading up to those times. Really informative.

[NNN0LHI]

104. I think I am going to get the book. I heard the last 4 chapters were great

Hard for me to read small print though. I have to close one eye to see up close anymore. Shit. I have the feeling there were a lot of different factors involved here. It must have almost been like the "perfect storm" of influenza. With any luck hopefully we will never see all those factors come together again. Thanks again and see you later.

Don

[Silverhair]

105. Yes, it was the "perfect storm" of influenza

There were indeed multiple factors, most of them governmental screw ups.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

21. What happened to the West Nile Virus? It's gone coast-to-coast, and....

...is killing people every year. Sorry the low numbers aren't impressive enough for you.

And who told you that killer bees were going to kill millions of Americans? Maybe a hundred or two every year but millions? Never saw that number reported in the media or anywhere else for that matter.

And yes, the probability of a pandemic appearing since 1955 has increased with each year that we haven't had one. We are due for another pandemic, regardless if it comes this year, or next year, or fifty years down the road. We're due. Period.

By the way, you'd have better luck running into Osama if you took a White House tour. Know what I mean?

[NNN0LHI]

28. We are also "due" to be hit by another meteor too

A comparable number of people died from West Nile Virus last year as died from lightning strikes in the US. Less than 100.

And what are you basing your assertion that the "probability of a pandemic appearing since 1955 has increased with each year" on. Is that assertion based that on scientific evidence or the laws of probability, or something entirely different?

Don

[Media_Lies_Daily]

79. Based on the tone of your responses in this thread, it is very clear....

...to me that you're more interested in being as rude and insulting as possible as opposed to attempting to have a rational conversation on the subject of Avian Flu.

[chickenscratching]

45. thanks

for the image of osama 'slitering' out of lake michigan in scuba gear.
that's hilarious. :silly:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

107. Didn't they get those killer bees to fly into the Astrodome.....

:shrug:

[NurseLefty]

39. A vaccine is not effective if the virus mutates rapidly.

Such is the case w/ avian flu. For example, w/ this year's flu - it mutated and over 20% of all cases were found to be of the mutated strain. ("California strain"). The last I read is that the CDC has the mutated strain pegged for next year's vaccine.

[Silverhair]

49. Yeah. I got the flu shot, and three months later still got the flu.

California strain I guess. Miserable.

I think our use of vaccines is causing the virus to "learn" how to mutate faster.

[Avalux]

3. 195 Vietnamese being tested for avian flu, report says

Mar 21, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – A Vietnamese newspaper has reported that 195 people in an area affected by H5N1 avian influenza have suspicious symptoms and are being tested for the disease.

If many of the people test positive for H5N1, it could mean that the virus is improving its ability to spread from person to person, thereby increasing the risk of a flu pandemic. Nearly all the human cases of H5N1 avian flu since late 2003 have been attributed to exposure to poultry. Experts believe that one patient, a 11-year-old Thai girl, probably transmitted the virus to her mother and an aunt last September.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/mar2105avian.html

________________


I think it's just a matter of time; a simmering pot about ready to boil.

[pandemic_1918]

23. Transfers to Hue

The transfer of patients to Hue has begun. Many of the 195 won't need hospitalization and may only have human flu. However, the number with bird flu will probably set a cluster record

http://news.google.com/news?q=bird+flu+quang+binh&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=nn&oi=newsr

[Runcible Spoon]

4. I wonder what it would be like...

if the Bush Cabal played up bird flu fear like they have terrorism...would it be worse? Why are they so mum?

[ClarkUSA]

7. If It's So Deadly, Why Haven't Millions Died in Asia Yet?

We've been hearing about this for years. Bullshit crap to take Brits minds off the elections coming up. Can't wait for a bin Laden tape now....oops, that happened
last year.

[fedsron2us]

9. For a pandemic the virus must be both contagious and deadly

The current strain only satisfies one of the criteria. It may mutate into a more virulent form over time. Should a pandemic occur no one really knows what the potential mortality figures might be but the attached link will give you some idea how an outbreak might develop.

http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/pandemics/fluprint.htm#2

It is interesting to note that whilst there have been many scares in recent years over new flu varieties, it is the existing strains which have continued to kill people in the largest numbers.

[OKthatsIT]

10. Its a load of crap, thats why

its very easily contained, even if it does mutate towards human to human.

But the drug companies will love getting their stock quotas for the year in vaccines.

I have a auto-immune disease...taking ANY vaccine is dangerous to my health these days. My doctor put me on her list for that flu shot last fall and I told her she can cease worrying about me until I say so.

AMA is just too addicted to drug companies...you cant really trust their judgement. You've got to be your own physician, do your own research.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

22. "Easily contained"??? Hmmm. Like the 1918 Pandemic?....

Why do you feel the Avian Flu is contained now? Aren't you a little concerned that Vietnam delayed reporting their numbers for several weeks, perhaps longer?

[pandemic_1918]

24. Millions Dying in US

When Millions are dying in Asia, millions will be dying here also. Influenza knows how to get around. California/7 took over the entire country in less than a month (and killed quite a few students in doing so, right here in the US).

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02260503/California_H3N2_Illinois.html

[gristy]

11. Thankfully in Britain...

We're safe here, right? Right? :freak:

[ninty]

12. Could you imagine

the turmoil the world would be in if it actually happened?

[Silverhair]

51. Worldwide economic disaster, followed by wars. NT

[drummer55]

13. OMG and a radioactive dinosaur could kill millions in Tokyo if it show up

and ...
and ...
and ...

fear is a great tool.

[democrat1129]

16. its just birds

[Media_Lies_Daily]

20. And pigs, and jungle cats, and, oh yeah...it's trying very hard to make..

...the jump to people in a form that will be highly contagious.

"Just birds"?? Right.

[unhappycamper]

26. We are still arguing the body count for the 1918 flu pandemic

You'll see numbers from 20 million to 100 million. The average kill rate was under 3%.

It was not unusual for 7/8 of a population in the Americas to die after meeting Europeans for the first time. H5N1 has an estimated kill rate of 70%.

[NNN0LHI]

30. kick

[depakid]

34. The number of clueless Americans continues to amaze me

The GOP's war on education & science over the past 25 years seems to have worked wonders....

The British are actually taking the issue seriously, making rational contigency plans and being honest with their citizens, and yet it seems like every time the issue comes up, some posters chime in with clueless cries of "fear mongering."

News for the clueless:

Public Health officials in countries all over the world are very concerned, and don't issue the sorts of statements we've been hearing lightly.

Being a dumb American may protect you against evils of the metric system and fuel effiiciency standards, but when H5N1 finally breaks out, you'll be singing a different tune.

[kskold]

37. Let me ask again

Let me ask again - if I believe the pandemic is coming, what am *I* supposed to be doing? I followed most if not all the links from this thread, and still have no idea what anyone expects any of us to *do* about this.

I keep hearing variations on "You unbelievers are going to regret it" but no one seems to be sharing what they're doing differently.

Reading everything you can find on the subject is *not* going to protect anyone - not without actions to go along with it. What Actions?

Kristen,
long-time lurker, occasional poster

[NurseLefty]

40. Pay attention to reliable news, and wash your hands.

Believe me - news or not - you will know that people are getting sick around you. Persistent washing of hands, especially when you are in public, is the single best way of preventing the spread of infection. It sounds silly, but it is evidenced-based advice. Viruses can sit on all surfaces - door handles, faucet knobs, etc. You touch any of those, then a few minutes later, you scratch your nose. The virus enters the mucous membranes inside your nose and VOILA! You have the bug!
And, if you know people are sick, stay away from them. Also, get enough sleep and nutrition to bolster your immunity.

[Silverhair]

50. I bought a couple of boxes of face masks.

And a few boxes of those new Kleenex tissues that have a middle layer of some virus killing stuff. They are supposed to be used to couch, blow nose, spit, etc into, but I will use them inside the mask as an extra layer of filtration. May not help, but it won't hurt.

Of course we at my house will become fanatic about hand washing. In fact, we will wash our hands using a disinfectant.

I have started self educating about the flu.

Self quarantine IS an option. In 1918 it took about 6 weeks for the flu to burn through a locale. The more contagious it is, the faster it uses up victims.

[chickenscratching]

46. all i know is.

too bad we've protected ourselves from bacteria and disease to the point of fucking with our immunity levels.
so if an epidemic WERE to happen, we'll have less of a fighting chance.
but that's a whole other issue.

[Name removed]

47. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kittykitty]

52. Pay Attention! Check this site daily to keep an eye on the progression of

The Avian Flu, and all other diseases!

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1000

The global electronic reporting system for outbreaks
of emerging infectious diseases & toxins,
open to all sources.
ProMED-mail, the Program for Monitoring
Emerging Diseases, is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases.Edit: spelling

[D-Notice]

56. It's gone down!

A few weeks ago they were saying 2 million...

Guess us Limeys've got a lot healthier in 2 wk...

[DS1]

60. Eh, more jobs for me

/capitalist
/sarcasm

[ElectroPrincess]

74. Hey DS1 ?

I love your ass! <giggles>

Hey! I meant "The DU Donkey" you sickies! :hi:

[DS1]

75. It's my Underground Ass, err Dem

;-)

[chlamor]

65. Combine this w/Ebola

Anthrax and the aforementioned killer bees and that should wrap this one up, but I know of a real live plague that kills thousands every day.

[FourStarDemocrat]

70. I notice that the UK seems to be preparing, while the US is not...

Barely a statement of concern of late from any government official. I thought the Bu$h administration was supposed to bring us a 'culture of life'...so where's the warnings and preparations here??

[NNN0LHI]

71. Wait until the elections next year. Then you will see the fear mongering

CNN is cuing up the "be scared of the influenza" music as I write this.

Don

[FourStarDemocrat]

72. Yeah, that and they'll wait until they squeeze out every shred of ...

sensationalism in the Schiavo story before they run news on something that can affect millions of lives.

[NNN0LHI]

73. And they will fill the time in between the two stories with shark attacks

Boo.

Don

[NNN0LHI]

77. This is so damn important that the WHO...

...has not even had an update on the status of the Avian flu virus in over two weeks. Yea, I am really worried about this.

Don

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

[Media_Lies_Daily]

80. Maybe the WHO doctors are busy doing REAL work instead of....

...preparing reports that people like you would ridicule anyway.

[NNN0LHI]

84. Update: Bird flu death rates probably exaggerated, says expert

http://www.newstarget.com/005889.html

Bird flu death rates probably exaggerated, says expert; early reports say the virus kills 90 percent of those infected

Early reports say a bird flu virus that has broken out across Asia kills up to 90 percent of those infected. But at least one expert says that figure is probably way off. He says the death rate figures do not take into account a growing number of minor cases that never get reported. He also notes that a flu pandemic that killed 20 million people in 1918 had a death rate of just 2 percent.

While early reports of the deadliness of human avian influenza suggested that about 90 percent of the victims died, there are growing signs that the disease's true death rate is much lower - although still high enough to kill many millions of people if the worst fears about its spread come to fruition.

The death rate for garden-variety flu for children, the elderly or those with weakened immune systems is less than 1 percent in developed countries.

The death rate for bird flu is dwindling because it is easier to count people who die than those who become infected and have minor symptoms, or none at all.

This phenomenon of sub clinical disease - essentially a mild case of the bird flu - seems to be occurring with more frequency than previously appreciated.

For instance, the virus was detected in a healthy 81-year-old man in Vietnam and in a few others who barely knew they had been ill.

more

[depakid]

97. Some of this is factually incorrect

Influenza case fatality rates, for example, in a nasty A-strain are usually closer to 5% in developed countries.

Another point- there isn't any evidence AT ALL for sub-clinical disease in H5N1.

Furthermore while some of the statements about survellience and monitoring not counting those who presented with milder symptoms may seem to make sense from an epidemiological standpoint- there's no evidence to back them up, either- so they're just bare assertions- and the counterassertion- that milder forms of influenza account for the milder forms of disease noted- is at least equally (if not- from what's actually observed historically in practice- much more) valid.

A lot of this was taken from a NY Times article about 10 days ago, and does not reflect the prevailing thought among public health officials either here or abroad.

[NNN0LHI]

101. Cambodia confirms village bird flu outbreak

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2005/March/theworld_March689.xml§ion=theworld

PHNOM PENH - Cambodia on Saturday confirmed an outbreak of bird flu at a village near the Vietnamese border but cleared one suspected human case of the deadly disease.

Two samples out of 31 from poultry in Keatha Vong Leu village tested positive for the H5N1 virus although the outbreak had been contained after 139 chickens and ducks were culled, Agriculture Minister Chan Sarun said.

“The two samples of chickens tested positive for the H5N1 virus. We received the results from the Pasteur Institute yesterday (Friday) at 5:00 pm (1000 GMT),” he told AFP.

Meanwhile Hon Sopheap, an 18-year-old from the same village suffering bird flu-like symptoms, tested negative for the virus, the head of the health ministry’s infectious disease department Ly Sovann said.

“The results for the 18-year-old man came out late Friday and showed he is not carrying the bird flu virus,” he told AFP.

more

[NNN0LHI]

106. N.Korea confirms bird flu outbreak

http://www.swissinfo.org/sen/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid=5632622

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has confirmed a bird flu outbreak at several chicken
farms in Pyongyang and says the farms slaughtered and buried hundreds of thousands of
chickens infected by the disease.

[NNN0LHI]

109. N Korea admits bird flu amid food shortages

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b55a3a1e-9ec3-11d9-82f0-00000e2511c8.html

[NNN0LHI]

111. Stop and think about this for a moment

There are people who are starving to death in North Korea because the US won't send food there to prevent that from happening. So the North Koreans have a choice. Starve to death, or eat the chickens that may have Avian flu. Personally if I were in the position of the North Koreans I would take my chances eating the chickens which may be infected. And by doing that it increases the chances of spreading the Avian flu worldwide. The leaders of our country are real smart. Aren't they?

Don

[NNN0LHI]

112. Does it appear that the USA is encouraging another pandemic by doing this?

It does to me. We should be sending boat loads of untainted food to all the countries which have reported outbreaks of Avian flu to discourage their citizens from consuming possibly contaminated chickens which many of these people rely on for their nutrition. Shouldn't we?

Britain who is telling their citizens that hundreds of thousands of them may die from an Avian flu pandemic should be leading the charge to deliver untainted food to these people. Shouldn't they be? Why aren't they doing that? It is completely insane for them not to be doing that if they truly think that there is a chance of another pandemic occurring.

I want to know what is going on here? Are they just feeding us lies about the chances of a pandemic occurring or do they just not care about their own citizens dying? Something is not right here. Anyone have any ideas whats really going on here?

Don

[NNN0LHI]

113. Any ideas from the people interested in pandemics want to comment? n/t

[NNN0LHI]

114. So whats going on here? Any guesses? n/t

[NNN0LHI]

110. Bird flu could be the next big, bad thing (or not)

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050327/HEALTH/103270052

Published: Sunday, Mar. 27, 2005

Pay close attention to news about avian influenza - the “bird flu” that has been ruffling the feathers of infectious disease experts around the world.

Few horror films could top the real-life disaster scenario hidden between the lines in their reports.

If the experts are right, the world is on the brink of a terrible epidemic that could kill millions of people and wreak economic havoc.

If they’re wrong, scientists’ credibility in predicting flu pandemics (global epidemics) will get another black eye; the false alarms will divert people from real health problems that desperately need attention; and governments will squander hundreds of millions of dollars on stockpiles of anti-viral drugs.

That emphasis on the miscue is justified because scientists have been wrong about flu pandemics before. Check the Internet for details of the “swine flu” fiasco in the 1970s, in which scientists predicted a doomsday flu pandemic that never occurred.

more

[Name removed]

116. Deleted message

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