Iraq's Next Fault Line (Shia activate the real nuclear option)

[ECH1969]

The Bush administration has hailed the formation of a new Iraqi government as a major step toward bringing stability to the country. But behind the scenes, some U.S. officials are fretting about Iraqi plans to remove as many as 9,000 members of the country's security, intelligence and police services who have been identified as former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath regime. Such a move could wreck the Iraqi forces that the U.S. has spent two years and $5 billion trying to train, according to U.S. officials in Baghdad and Washington. They are also worried that a sweeping de-Baathification order could toss out thousands of former mid-level men who are cooperating with the U.S. against the insurgency. "We want to see the Iraqi security forces take a bigger role," says a U.S. official in Baghdad. "Purging these people without reference to their loyalty now or their competence will set that back."

The de-Baathification push is being led by members of the Shi'ite-dominated United Iraqi Alliance, the most powerful bloc in the new government, who accuse outgoing Prime Minister Iyad Allawi of packing the country's security apparatus with former Baathists. The issue is so sensitive that during a mid-April visit to Baghdad, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld delivered a private warning to new Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jafaari that the U.S. does not support a mass purge.

With the insurgency still raging, some Iraqis fear that the de-Baathification order will drive newly unemployed officers into the arms of the rebels. Says an Iraqi captain, who asked to be identified by his nickname, Abu Laith: "If the government has 1,000 enemies now, they will have 10,000 enemies."

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1053634,00.html
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You think the violence you have seen lately in Iraq is bad, it will pale in comparision to what will happen if they do this. We see 50 Iraqi dead as a bad day in Iraq, this will up that many many fold.

[aneerkoinos]

1. Don't think so

I think it's much more likely that these are scum who got used to stealing, beating, raping and murdering during the Saddam regime, and don't mind continuing that line of business under any oppressive corrupt regime. That's why US-Allawi like them, Iraqi Tonton Macoutes.

I don't think there's much chance they'd become principled, patriotic members of resistance. Criminal gangs, yes.

[ECH1969]

3. Juan Cole disagrees with you

Just go to his web site and see what he says about that.

[aneerkoinos]

6. So?

Mr. Cole is as capable of being wrong as anybody (but me ;)).

The guerilla war resistance is mainly caused by US occupation, which Kerryite Cole, who seems to puts his hopes in the new Iraqi governement and just couple more years of occupation, tends to forget nowadays.

[bluestateguy]

2. Al Sadr's army never disbanded

All he has to do is pull the trigger, and then it's off to the races.

[Massacure]

7. What are Al Sadr's intentions? Is he releated to the Baath party?

[Zorra]

4. Messy, messy, messy. Hey, Mission Accomplished, right? sheesh. n/t

[Disturbed]

5. Irony

Ahmed Chalabi was behind the Ba'athist purge also, saying something like keeping them in positions was like keeping Nazis in power after WW2. The initial purge is one of the factors that the Insurgency has so much strength, also disbanding the Iraqi Army.

The U.S. Occupation has been one screw up after another, yet the NeoCons have won their initial agenda: Keeping Saddam from selling oil via Euros to other nations. Sanctions would have been lifted had the WMD inspections been allowed to continue, hence to push to invade ramped high. The strategic military force is in place and the oil will flow for U.S. and the UK in a few years.

[Barrett808]

8. Check out Chris Allbritton's blog at http://back-to-iraq.com/

http://back-to-iraq.com/

[Barrett808]

9. Hey, those are *our* Mukhabarat

Hands off:

Don't touch our thugs
According to Washington's script, progressive invisibility of the occupying force means increasing repression exercised by Iraqi forces. This means the return - in full force - of Saddam's Mukhabarat agents, now posing as agents of the new Iraqi security and intelligence services. Seemingly, that is the way the disenfranchised Muqtada-regimented masses see it: Bush equals Saddam because the same people who repressed us are back. Not to mention that everyone painfully remembers how George Bush senior did nothing to prevent Saddam from smashing the Shi'ite uprising at the end of the first Gulf War in 1991. The masses correctly interpreted the meaning of Rumsfeld's "message" to the Shi'ite al-Jafaari: don't touch the defense and interior ministries, ie, don't touch our old Mukhabarat allies and counterinsurgency experts.

Not featured in the elaborate Pentagon plans to regiment Mukhabarat agents is that these same Sunni, Saddam-era operatives may not be exactly inclined to fight the Sunni resistance. To complicate the equation, 70% of the US-trained Iraqi security forces are former Ba'athists. The top commando, with 10,000 operatives, is almost 100% composed of former Saddam army officers. If Jaafari's government purges them, it's the end of the American dream of having Iraqis doing the dirty jobs.

(more)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GD21Ak02.html