Katrina shows effect of climate change, says Gore

[AlGore-08.com]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7c972c82-27b2-11da-ac98-00000e2511c8.html

By Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent

Hurricane Katrina offered “a taste” of the disasters, and the response to them, that the US could expect as a consequence of climate change, former vice president Al Gore said on Saturday.


He cited recent research that found warmer sea surface temperatures - a result of global warming - had strengthened hurricanes and major storms around the world. Speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York, where climate change was one of the key issues under discussion, he also criticised those politicians he said wanted to trim government too far, as weak government was incapable of responding adequately to emergencies.

He said: “Katrina is the first sip, the first taste, of a bitter cup that will be proffered to us over and over again. It is up to us , and it does involve accepting that there is a legitimate role for government.”

Mr Gore spoke out against the proposed suspension of certain environmental regulations, which some have argued are necessary to deal with Katrina's aftermath: “The response to Katrina should not be to suspend environmental laws and to cut taxes once again.”

(more... )

[pfitz59]

1. I agree with President Gore....

Why can't we just throw out the unelected pretender, and put a real human being in charge?

[CountAllVotes]

3. I'll second that

He IS after all really the President of the United States. You should read the message board for Diebold stock ... even THEY admit it! *ACK!*

"DBD a threat to democracy"

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mb?s=DBD


:kick:

[cssmall]

2. *sigh* What could have been. NT

[DavidDvorkin]

4. Might be about time for the MSM to start making fun of Gore

Deriding him for saying things he never said, and so on. As a pre-emptive strike, I mean.

[Endangered Specie]

5. I fail to see how gore can run in 08...

I mean, hes already a two term president (afaic) ;)

[Lisa]

6. Gore would not have ignored this 2000 warning

(from the US Global Change Research Program)

"Weather-related Stresses on Human Populations
The Southeast is prone to frequent natural weather disasters that affect human life and property. Over half of the nation's costliest weather-related disasters of the past 20 years have occurred in the Southeast, costing the region over $85 billion in damages, mostly associated with floods and hurricanes. Across the region, intense precipitation has increased over the past 100 years, and this trend is projected to continue.

The southern heat wave and drought of 1998 resulted in damages in excess of $6 billion and at least 200 deaths. Human health concerns arise from the projected increases in maximum temperatures and heat index in the region. These concerns are particularly great for lower income households that lack sufficient resources to improve insulation and install and operate air conditioning systems. Air quality degradation in urban areas is also a concern associated with elevated air temperatures and increased emissions from power generation, which can increase ground-level ozone. Increased flooding in low-lying coastal counties from the Carolinas to Texas is also likely to adversely impact human health; floods are the leading cause of death from natural disasters in the region and nationwide.

Adaptations: Traditional approaches such as flood levees, elevated structures, and building codes are no longer adequate by themselves, particularly in the coastal zone, as sea-level rise alone continues to increase the propensity for storm-surge flooding in virtually all southeastern coastal areas. Improvements in risk assessment, coastal and floodplain management, linking insurance to policies for mitigating flood damage, and local mitigation planning are strategies that are likely to decrease potential costs. Changes in climate and sea-level rise should be an integral consideration as coastal communities develop strategies for hazard preparedness and mitigation."


"About 35 square miles of coastal land were lost each year in Louisiana alone from 1978 to 1990. Flood and erosion damage stemming from sea-level rise coupled with storm surges are very likely to increase in coastal communities."

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overviewsoutheast.htm

[Jamastiene]

7. You da man, Gore. Say it like it is. n/t

[DuaneBidoux]

8. I just saw the very tailend of a report on CNN talking about the increase

in recent years of strong hurricanes...something predicted by global warming experts. Does anyone have any kind of link with this or any similar report?

[DuaneBidoux]

9. Shrub says we "can't afford" to do anything about global warming but

we can afford a dozen Katrinas in the years to come?

[Lisa]

10. this is the homepage of one of the top hurricane experts ...

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm

The number of hurricanes does show cycles over time, and we're entering an "up" part of the cycle now. But this may not be due to global warming.

However, the intensity of the storms has definitely increased. They have actually worked out an index for this, which looks at the number of hours for which the winds exceed a certain strength.

He's a widely-trusted scientist who's not known for bandwagon-jumping, so if anything he is being cautious and not speculating too much about future trends.

He believes that there WILL be increasing hurricane damage over time (partly due to global warming, partly due to more coastline development). He can't say that any particular hurricane is due to global warming (and neither I, nor the other global change researchers I work with would do this either) -- but when we're talking probabilities, and the susceptibility of particular areas (e.g. due to known increases in sea level over the past few decades), the long-term forecast doesn't look good.

***techniques note: for Gore to use Katrina as a preview of what could happen in the future is entirely okay, I feel. I don't think he's being alarmist or biased to say that. This is often the only way that forecasters have, of trying to estimate possible impacts, since we often don't know enough about the physical/social factors and interactions to make a blind guess. So we use historical analogs.***

That said -- we do know that hurricanes are linked with sea surface temperatures, and there's definitely been an SST increase, even when you figure out regional differences and stuff like El Nino ... which some researchers say is probably due to global warming.

"The global average surface temperature (the average of near surface air temperature over land, and sea surface temperature) has increased since 1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been 0.6 ± 0.2°C."

"Global ocean heat content has increased since the late 1950s, the period for which adequate observations of sub-surface ocean temperatures have been available."

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/075.htm

Here is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change website, with (free) publications. This is one of the standard sites used by global change researchers -- the impacts book is very interesting (especially the Coastal and Insurance sections).

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/


This is a quote from the scientific background report:

"Because moisture convergence is likely to be proportionately enhanced as the moisture content increases, it should lead to similarly enhanced precipitation rates. Moreover, the latent heat released feeds back on the intensity of the storms. These factors suggest that, while global precipitation exhibits a small increase with modest surface warming, it becomes increasingly concentrated in intense events, as is observed to be happening in many parts of the world (Karl et al., 1995), including the USA (Karl and Knight, 1998), Japan (Iwashima and Yamamoto, 1993) and Australia (Suppiah and Hennessy, 1998), thus increasing risk of flooding. However, the overall changes in precipitation must equal evaporation changes, and this is smaller percentage-wise than the typical change in moisture content in most model simulations (e.g., Mitchell et al., 1987; Roads et al., 1996). Thus there are implications for the frequency of storms or other factors (duration, efficiency, etc.) that must come into play to restrict the total precipitation. One possibility is that individual storms could be more intense from the latent heat enhancement, but are fewer and farther between (Trenberth, 1998, 1999)."



http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/276.htm#7233

[Lisa]

11. and the US National Assessment (Climate Change Impacts)

A very well-researched document, which laid out the long-term potential impacts (way back in 2000).

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm


Here is the Southeast US page ...

"Traditional approaches such as flood levees, elevated structures, and building codes are no longer adequate by themselves, particularly in the coastal zone, as sea-level rise alone continues to increase the propensity for storm-surge flooding in virtually all southeastern coastal areas. Improvements in risk assessment, coastal and floodplain management, linking insurance to policies for mitigating flood damage, and local mitigation planning are strategies that are likely to decrease potential costs. Changes in climate and sea-level rise should be an integral consideration as coastal communities develop strategies for hazard preparedness and mitigation."

"Sea-level rise is one of the more certain consequences of climate change. It has already had significant impacts on coastal areas and these impacts are very likely to increase. Between 1985 and 1995, southeastern states lost more than 32,000 acres of coastal salt marsh due to a combination of human development activities, sea-level rise, natural subsidence, and erosion. About 35 square miles of coastal land were lost each year in Louisiana alone from 1978 to 1990. Flood and erosion damage stemming from sea-level rise coupled with storm surges are very likely to increase in coastal communities."


http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overviewsoutheast.htm


And may I say, my own country (Canada) doesn't have anything nearly as comprehensive (in terms of forecasting etc.), so I was really shocked and disappointed that Bush chose to ignore this excellent information.