STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 31

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 31, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 354
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2568 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2292 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2253
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 30, 2008

Dow... 12,442.83 -37.47 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq... 2,349.00 -9.06 (-0.38%)
S&P 500... 1,355.81 -6.49 (-0.48%)
Gold future... 926.30 -4.50 (-0.49%)
30-Year Bond 4.43% +0.10 (+2.24%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.73% +0.08 (+2.05%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Tailwinds Become Headwinds

A Look at the Q4 GDP Report
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Economic growth decelerated sharply from the 4.91% annualized growth rate seen in the Q3 2007 to 0.64% in Q4, nearly coming in at only half of the 1.2% consensus growth rate reported by Thomson Financial. The deceleration in growth came from a fall in inventories and weaker growth in federal spending, consumption, and exports.
....

Breaking down the GDP report by components, consumption grew 1.97%, fixed investment fell 2.58%, exports rose 3.89%, imports rose 0.32%, and government expenditures rose 2.6%. In terms of contributions to percent change in real GDP, positive growth came from personal consumption expenditures, net exports of goods and services, and government expenditures, which added 1.37%, 0.41%, and 0.50% respectively. Subtracting from growth was gross private domestic investment, which subtracted 1.64% from total GDP growth.
.....

What is interesting to note, and which helps explain why the decline in residential fixed investment hasn’t had a more drastic affect on GDP growth, is that the growth in real nonresidential fixed investment in 2007 completely offset the decline in residential fixed investment. In 2007, real nonresidential fixed investment grew by $97.9 billion while real residential fixed investment fell by $96.7 billion, more than offsetting the entire decline from the housing recession.
....

Today’s Market

The markets traded flat for most of the day before vaulting northward once the Fed announced it would cut interest rates by half a percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 230 points after the announcement before giving back all of the gains on the day to finish in negative territory as investors locked in short-term gains amidst worry of a slowing economy.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Roland99]

3. Hmmm...very interesting. And didn't someone mention slowing commercial real estate the other day?

Though nonresidential fixed investment helped offset the decline in residential fixed investment in 2007, this may not be the case for this year as growth in the component appears to be decelerating and trends in nonresidential fixed investment lag movements in residential fixed investment. For example, growth in nonresidential fixed investment has decelerated since the second quarter of last year when it grew at an annualized 10.99% rate, falling to 9.36% and 7.53% in the third and fourth quarters respectively. Additionally, based on the historical script, nonresidential fixed investment should start to drop off as it tends to lag residential fixed investment by three quarters.

One of the components that make up nonresidential fixed investment is structures (commercial real estate). As business trends lag consumer trends, it is not hard to see how commercial real estate lags residential real estate, with Figure 5 below showing the lag tending to be by five quarters.

[ozymandius]

5. That has been mentioned twice in the past month... to my recollection.

And good morning :donut: :donut: :donut:

There was a story forecasting layoffs among large-cap companies this year; reduced hiring among the healthier businesses; and the softening of the commercial real estate market.

Per my local observations: multi-use developments are slow to fill business spaces. Residential sales clearly outpace business lease/purchase activity. Although residential sales are sluggish in the downtown Atlanta area.

[radfringe]

11. not surprising

who will invest or start a new company when the economy sucks?

money "trickles up" not down, and if the well is dry - no amount of pumping is going produce a gusher

[Roland99]

12. And a good morning to you!

:hi:


One thing about Louisville, it's pretty much always bucked any downward trends, at least for the last 25 years or so. Housing prices may have reached a temporary plateau but it still seems somewhat healthy.

[Tansy_Gold]

49. Two new, though small, commercial developements sit empty

in Gold Canyon, AZ. Home sales are down, and prices are down even further.

This is a reasonably affluent outlying "suburb" (exurb?) of Phoenix, some families but mostly retirees with comfortable income. New "strip mall" completed in Sept 07 has one current tenant, an art gallery that moved from another location, and one incoming tenant, a pizza franchise.

Empty spaces look a bit, well, a bit ominous.


Just the observation of


Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports-a-Plenty

8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q4
Briefing Forecast 0.8%
Market Expects 0.8%
Prior 0.8%

8:30 AM Personal Income Dec
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.1%
Prior 1.1%

8:30 AM Core PCE Inflation Dec
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/26
Briefing Forecast 335K
Market Expects 320K
Prior 301K

9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jan
Briefing Forecast 52.5
Market Expects 52.0
Prior 56.6

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/26
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 2297K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

17. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims up 69,000 to 375,000 - highest since Katrina

07. U.S. Dec. real disposable incomes up 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

08. U.S. Dec. nominal spending up 0.2% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

09. U.S. Dec. incomes up 0.5% vs. 0.4% expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

10. U.S. Q4 ECI up 3.3% yr-on-yr vs 3.3% in Q3
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

11. U.S. Q4 ECI up 0.8% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

12. U.S. continuing jobless claims up 47,000 to 2.72 mln
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

13. U.S. core prices up 2.2% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

14. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims up 10,250 to 325,750
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

15. U.S. weekly jobless claims rise highest since Katrina
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

16. U.S. Dec. core PCE price index up 0.2% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

17. U.S. weekly jobless claims at highest level since Oct 8
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

18. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims up 69,000 to 375,000
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

19. U.S. Dec. real consumer spending flat
8:30 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 5 minutes ago

[Roland99]

33. But..but..but... ADP said +120,000 or so!

[UpInArms]

38. no - that's for tomorrow's suckers -

the ADP said there would be 150,000 jobs added during the month of January - it's a freakin' joke - look at the last 4 weeks of claims and you just know that there are no jobs added - only jobs lost.

:hi:

[Roland99]

40. Labor Dept official attributed the increase to difficulties adjusting to Martin Luther King holiday

I shit you not...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-first-time-jobless-claims-rocket/story.aspx?guid=%7B9BC3EA63%2DC0F2%2D49E3%2D80AA%2DD7432B77FDD6%7D

[Ghost Dog]

86. Why the job market is worse than you think

DU thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3164135

The number of long-term unemployed stood at a seasonally-adjusted 1.3 million in December, up about 22 percent from year-earlier levels. The full-year average for 2007 was 1.2 million long-term unemployed, nearly double the reading for 2000 -- just before the last recession.

For all of 2007, about 17.6% of those who were unemployed had been out of work six months or more. That compares to only 11.4% who were long-term unemployed in 2000.

"You have to understand that 5% unemployment today is worse than 5% unemployment 10-15 years ago," said Jason Furman, senior fellow, Brookings Institution.

/... http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/31/news/economy/longterm_unemployment/index.htm?postversion=2008013115

[UpInArms]

24. New York City economy weakens in January - NY-NAPM

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3130804020080131

NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Business activity in New York City contracted for the first time in four months in January on growing pessimism spurred by recession fears and market turmoil, according to an industry report released on Thursday.

New York City's economy is particularly sensitive to turbulence in the stock market, given its reliance on Wall Street and the banking industry.

The National Association of Purchasing Management-New York said on its Web site that its index of local business activity fell to 431.0 from a downwardly revised 432.1 in December.

The December reading was originally reported at 449.1.

"Survey participants specifically mentioned recession, soft demand, weak retail environment, decline in consumer discretionary spending and market downturn as concerns," the business group said of the data compiled from its members.

The survey's seasonally adjusted measure on current business conditions slumped to 47.9 from December's upwardly adjusted 63.9. A figure below 50 means a contraction in activity.

The survey's six-month outlook gauge sagged to 44.2, its lowest since November 2005, from 58.7 in December.

...more...

[UpInArms]

44. U.S. Jan. Chicago PMI 51.5% vs. 56.4% Dec.

01. U.S. Jan. Chicago PMI 51.5% vs. 56.4% Dec.
9:46 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 1 minute ago

[UpInArms]

51. U.S. Midwest business expands more slowly in Jan - fell to 51.5 from 52.0 in Dec

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3124411620080131

CHICAGO, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Business activity in the U.S. Midwest expanded in January but at a slightly slower rate than expected as new orders dropped and price pressures accelerated, a report showed on Thursday.

The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago business barometer fell to 51.5 from 52.0 in December, originally reported at 56.6.

Economists had forecast the index unchanged at 52.0. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

70. KC Fed manufacturing index 7 in January

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWBT00828120080131

Jan 31 (Reuters) - Details of the Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City's monthly manufacturing index, released on
Thursday.
Following are details from the survey:

                                                Expected
MANUFACTURING SURVEY       Jan     Dec    (Prev)    6 mos.
 Production                  7      10      12       18
 Shipments                   2       5       5       17
 New Orders                 15       8       9       23
 Backlog Orders              2       2       2       13
 Number of employees         8       1       1       18
 Average workweek           -3       2       4        0
 Finished product prices    15       8       6       40
 Raw product prices         47      32      33       61
 Capital expenditures      N/A     N/A     N/A        9
 Inventory-materials        -4      -1      -3       -8
 Inventory-finished goods    3      -3      -4      -10
     N/A - not available
 NOTES:
 The survey included 116 responses from manufacturing plants
in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New
Mexico and western Missouri.

[ozymandius]

4. Oil falls to $91 on economic concerns

SINGAPORE - Oil prices slid more than $1 a barrel Thursday after Wall Street's overnight decline and a report that U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week.

Wall Street — despite initially advancing after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates half a percentage point — closed lower Wednesday as investors collected profits after two sessions of gains.
.....

A report of growing U.S. crude stockpiles also weighed on oil prices.

In its weekly inventory snapshot, the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said crude and gasoline stocks rose 3.6 million barrels each during the week ended Jan. 25. Analysts had expected crude stockpiles to rise 2.3 million barrels and gasoline inventories to rise 1.9 million barrels.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. Investors want more interest rate cuts

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, criticized last year for being too tentative in cutting interest rates, has shown he can act boldly. But the Fed's two aggressive rate cuts in the past eight days have left investors demanding still more.

That may be a sign of how much trouble the economy is facing, with many analysts contending that the country is flirting with a recession and may, in fact, already be in one.

The Fed announced Wednesday that it was cutting its federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, by a half-point, double the quarter-point cut that many economists had been expecting. That move followed on the heels of a reduction last week in the funds rate of three-quarters of a point, which had been the biggest single rate cut in more than two decades.
.....

The 1.25 percentage point reduction in the funds rate in just over a week is unprecedented in recent memory. The Fed hasn't been that aggressive about cutting the funds rate since the early 1980s, when then-Chairman Paul Volcker was reversing a tightening cycle that had driven interest rates to the highest levels since the Civil War in a successful effort to break the back of a decade-long bout of inflation.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080131/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates

[ozymandius]

7. Market drops as bond insurer fears hit financials

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell on Wednesday, led by financial shares, after a television commentator said he believed that the two biggest bond insurers will lose their top credit rating, a move that could bring more big losses to the financial sector.

The remarks by CNBC reporter Charles Gasparino came in the last hour of trading, knocking down major indexes from nearly 1.5 percent gains wracked up after an aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Shares of bond insurers Ambac Financial Group Inc and MBIA Inc each finished down more than 10 percent, which contributed to financial shares ending among the day's worst performers
.....

FGIC Corp's bond insurance arm lost its top "AAA" rating from Fitch Ratings on Wednesday, adding to worries about the bond insurance sector. The downgrade is a blow to the insurer's business model and could also cause downgrades to more than 100,000 municipal bonds.

FGIC is owned by a group including mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc, whose stock slid 3.4 percent to $9.11 on the NYSE, and private equity firm Blackstone Group, whose stock dropped 1.8 percent to $18.65.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080130/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc

[ozymandius]

9. Banks May Write Down $70 Billion, Oppenheimer Says (Update3)

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co., UBS AG and other banks may post another $70 billion in writedowns should bond insurers lose their top credit ratings, according to Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney.

Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and UBS together stand to lose 45 percent of the total were Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's to cut the AAA credit ratings, Whitney said. The banks suffered $61 billion of the industry's $133 billion in losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
.....

MBIA and Ambac may each lose $11.6 billion on guarantees of residential mortgage securities and some collateralized debt obligations, hedge fund manager William Ackman said today.

Ackman calculated the losses using a model supplied by an unnamed investment bank and sent the findings in a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission and New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo. Ackman is a managing partner of Pershing Square Capital Management LP, which is trying to profit from declines in the stocks and bonds of MBIA and Ambac.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVFVkFUo.XM4&refer=home

[ozymandius]

8. New York may use potent law vs mortgage banks: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who is probing how Wall Street banks packaged and sold mortgage bonds, may use the same powerful state law that predecessor Eliot Spitzer wielded to secure billions of dollars in settlements from investment banks and mutual fund firms, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing unnamed sources.

New York's 1921 Martin Act is considered one of the most potent legal tools in the United States because it broadly defines securities fraud and does not require prosecutors to prove intent.

.....

Prosecutors want to see if underwriters failed to disclose warnings from Clayton and other firms like it about loans that didn't meet an originator's lending standards, the paper said.

Disclosing potential problems might have prompted credit-rating agencies to assign lower grades and make the bonds harder to sell.

The attorney general also is examining if Wall Street firms concealed information about shortcomings from rating agencies, the people familiar with the matter told the Journal.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080131/bs_nm/wallstreet_mortgages_probe_dc

[ozymandius]

10. Have a fine day folks.

Time now for me to get out the door. Students will be waiting if I'm not timely.

:hi:

[Roland99]

13. Weak futures (could be worse)

DJIA INDEX 12,340.00 -54.00 07:48
S&P 500 1,345.20 -5.40 1,349.90 07:47
NASDAQ 100 1,800.25 -11.25 07:46

[hatrack]

19. Now off -135 - 8:49 EST

nt

[Roland99]

22. Zoinks! People are waking up and clearing the cobwebs and realizing...oh crap!

[UpInArms]

35. Market set to drop on "shock" jobless data

It appears these buffoons have been believing their own propaganda. What doofs!

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3129483120080131

NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were set to fall at the market opening on Thursday as data showing a big jump in weekly jobless claims added to nervousness in a market already jittery about financial sector losses.

Government data showed the number of workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 375,000 last week, the largest rise in more than two years and the highest level since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

"There's headline shock in a number like 375,000. If claims were to stay at that level, it would indicate significant softening in the labor market," said Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Stock futures were down before the data on worries about the credit sector and bond insurers. Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's said credit losses for financial institutions could eventually swell to more than $265 billion. For details, see . In addition, S&P said it cut or may cut its ratings on up to $534 billion of subprime bonds.

...more...

I mean, really! Anyone with half a brain cell could just look at the real picture and know that layoffs are escalating.

I grow weary of their foolishness.

[Demeter]

14. What Happened Yesterday?

That was amazing--never seen anything like it.

[hatrack]

15. Yes, it's like everybody suddenly realized the Fed used up most of its ammo . .

There was also the title change to "Federal String-Pushing Consortium" that may have raised investors' eyebrows.

[Ghost Dog]

32. On account of the bond (monoline) insurers,

they're saying in Asia and Europe...

[TalkingDog]

50. The definition of insanity:

Doing the same thing over and over, hoping to get different results.

I'm not a big fan of Skinner (the psychologist, not the DU GodHead). By all accounts he treated his children like he treated his pigeons and that wasn't very good.

There are a whole lotta people in the world who are literally trying to figure it out as they go along. Even on things as vital and important as the economy. Not everybody is curious. Not everybody enjoys (like I do) research and finding snips and bits and patching them all together in a big tinker-toy model of the Universe.

So these people, who keep doing the same random things, sometimes get rewarded and sometimes they don't. If the rewards are good enough, no matter how long they "dry" streak is, they will keep trying that same old trick, or some near variation, over and over hoping that this time it will work. Just like the pigeons.

Unfortunately, some of these people work in the government, in the stock market (as your doctor, lawyer, etc.) And you can only hope that they hit upon a system that works more often than not.

Random Rules.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[kineneb]

74. and economists must not study history

that is all I can figure. The "modern" history of bubbles is extensive (want tulips with that?) so why do they keep repeating the same errors? I should think that before they are taught any theory, they should study economic history. But then that would be logical. Sigh.

(have Medieval Studies Minor)

[UpInArms]

16. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.125 Change +0.007 (+0.01%)

Federal Reserve Cuts 50bp, Dollar Tanks, More Rate Cuts to Come

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Federal_Reserve_Cuts_50bp__Dollar_1201721777283.html

The Federal Reserve wants to be ahead of the curve. They no longer want to be criticized for doing too little, too late and for that reason, they cut interest rates by 50bp today to 3.00 percent. In a little more than week, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by a total of 125bp, which is more than all of the rates cuts that they made last year combined.

They are still worried about financial market conditions, tight credit, the stability of the labor market and a further contraction in housing. Although they believe that their efforts thus far will offset some of the downside risks to growth, the tone of the FOMC statement indicates that this rate cut will not be their last. Inflation is not a problem at the moment; they expect it to moderate in the coming quarters.

The rate decision has pushed the US dollar lower against every major currency as it quickly becomes a carry trade funding currency. A little more than 5 months ago, US interest rates were the fourth highest in the developed world and now it is the third lowest. If you want to understand the price action post FOMC, just take a look at the following table. The US dollar now offers a yield that is 100bp less than Canada and 525bp less than New Zealand. It is yielding only 25bp more than Switzerland which means that once the Fed lowers rates again in March, and we expect them to, the US dollar will be tied with the Franc as second lowest yielding currency in the developed world.

...more...

Why the US Dollar Will Fall Further?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Why_the_US_Dollar_Will_1201735371992.html


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Why the US Dollar Will Fall Further?
Wednesday, 30 January 2008 22:22:33 GMT
Printer Friendly | Email Article | RSS | Previous articles
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• USDJPY Headed to 105
• Eurozone Rates Are Now 100bp Higher than US Rates


Why the US Dollar Will Fall Further?

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp to 3.00 percent. In a little more than one week, the US central bank has lowered interest rates by 125bp, turning the US dollar into a de facto carry trade funding currency. The greenback now yields 100bp less than the Euro and the British pound and 525bp less than the New Zealand dollar. At the same time, it only offers 25bp more in yield than Switzerland, but a comfortable advantage of 250bp over the Japanese Yen. These interest rate differentials provide a perfect explanation for the price action in the currency market post FOMC. The dollar dropped the most on a percentage basis against the New Zealand dollar and the least against the Japanese Yen. But the dollar’s weakness is not over. According to the FOMC statement, the Fed is still worried about financial market conditions, tight credit, the stability of the labor market and a further contraction in housing. Although they believe that their recent efforts will offset some of the downside risks to growth, the tone of the FOMC statement indicates that this rate cut will not be their last. We still expect US interest rates to fall to least 2.50 percent before this easing cycle is over. The pace of rate cuts however will begin to slow. Last week, the Fed cut by 75bp, today they cut by 50bp and on March 18, we expect only a quarter point rate cut. The economy will need time to absorb the easing and even though the Fed does not think that inflation is an immediate threat, by lowering interest rates too rapidly, they risk stoking inflationary pressures. By cutting interest rates 50bp instead of 25bp, we commend the Fed for being ahead of the curve. This will hurt the outlook for the US dollar in the near future, but it will pay off in the second half of the year. With the FOMC rate decision behind us, the next big event risk is Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. There is a decent chance that January job growth will be very strong. ADP reported that 130k new jobs were added to US payrolls last month which dovetails well into the surprisingly low level of jobless claims that we have seen in recent weeks. The four week moving average of claims is now at a 3 month low which indicates that non-farm payrolls at bare minimum will be more than the 18k jobs that were created last month. In fact they could be as high as 85 to 100k. Before that on Thursday we are expecting personal income, personal spending and Chicago PMI.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

47. Euro= USD 1.488, GBP 0.748, CHF 1.605 and JPY 158.5 at this time

[Ghost Dog]

18. Asian Stocks Rise, Led By Carmakers, Shipbuilders on Earnings

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose on speculation the region's corporate earnings will withstand a slowdown in the U.S. after Honda Motor Co. raised its forecast and Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. reported a record profit.

Honda, Japan's second-largest automaker, climbed to a three- week high. Hyundai Heavy, the world's biggest shipbuilder, surged the most in four weeks. Seiko Epson Corp. and Esprit Holdings Ltd., the Hong Kong-based apparel retailer, both advanced after reporting higher earnings.

``Our strategy is to stay defensive and pick up selective shares that look cheap and whose earnings look resilient,'' said Teo Chon Kiat, who helps manage the equivalent of $16 billion at DBS Asset Management in Singapore. ``Investors are still concerned about a slowdown in the U.S. and the impact on export growth in the region.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.8 percent to 143.73 at 3:53 p.m. in Tokyo, reversing an earlier loss of 0.6 percent. All 10 of the benchmark's industry groups advanced. The measure has fallen 8.9 percent this year, headed for its biggest monthly decline since September 2001.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index added 1.9 percent to 13,592.47. South Korea's Kospi Index climbed 2.2 percent, the biggest advance in the region. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index had its steepest monthly decline since its history began in 1992.

...

Daihatsu Motor Co., 51 percent owned by Toyota Motor Corp., jumped 10 percent to 1,082 yen, the highest level since Dec. 26. The Japanese carmaker increased its profit forecast by 25 percent yesterday because of higher sales in Indonesia and Malaysia. Toyota climbed 5.4 percent to 5,820 yen.

...

Hyundai Heavy gained 9.1 percent to 312,000 won, rebounding from yesterday's biggest decline since Sept. 12, 2001. The South Korean shipyard reported a 79 percent increase in fourth-quarter profit to a record as it built more vessels to meet trade demand from Asia and Europe. Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co., an affiliate of Hyundai Heavy, advanced 2.3 percent to 175,500 won, snapping a three-day, 29 percent plunge.

Korea Line soared by the exchange-imposed daily limit of 15 percent to 138,000 won. STX Pan Ocean Co., South Korea's biggest bulk carrier, jumped 15 percent to 1,970 won. Hanjin Shipping Co., the nation's No. 1 shipping line, climbed 9 percent to 32,650 won.

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, rose 5.1 percent in London yesterday, its biggest gain in almost two years, after BHP Billiton Ltd. and Baosteel Group Corp. signed a 10-year supply contract for an extra 94 million tons of iron ore.

``The contract proves long-term iron-ore demand is still firm, also for the bulk carriers,'' said Ryu Je Hyun, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities Co. in Hong Kong, who rates Korea Line as a ``buy.''

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a3_Dcd3WXP64&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

21. China Battles to Prevent Snowstorms Derailing Holiday (Update4)

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- China is battling to prevent the worst snowstorms in half a century from derailing the nation's most important annual holiday, as troops work to clear roads to allow tens of millions of migrant workers to return home.

The Chinese government ordered the biggest troop deployment in at least a decade to clear ice and snow that has paralyzed roads, railways and power supplies across much of central, southern and eastern China a week before the Lunar New Year holiday. The clearer weather that allowed for more travel today is temporary and more snow is forecast, the weather bureau said.

Chinese authorities really have ``the threat of a social and political crisis on their hands and they've been able to dodge the bullet so far,'' said David Zweig, a professor at Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, who specializes in China.

About 105 million people have been affected by the snowstorms, the China Daily newspaper reported. Premier Wen Jiabao personally apologized to travelers at the railway station in the southern city of Guangzhou yesterday, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

``It would reflect very badly on the government if these people weren't able to get home,'' said Joseph Cheng, a political science professor at City University of Hong Kong. The new year holiday is ``a benchmark of how well the leaders care for the people,'' he said.

Deaths, Damage

The snowstorms have killed 38 people since Jan. 10, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said yesterday. At least 55 people have died, Xinhua said, without saying where it got the information.

Direct economic losses were estimated at 32.7 billion yuan ($4.54 billion), the ministry said. The storms have destroyed or damaged more than 750,000 homes, caused blackouts in at least half of the nation's provinces and damaged 6.7 million hectares of farmland, the China Daily reported.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aEcAQGD0TAeY&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

54. China Jan CPI seen up 6.5 pct yr-on-yr - party official

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - Chinese consumer prices are expected to rise 6.5 pct year-on-year in January, level with the rise in December, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing a Communist Party official in charge of rural policy.

Chen Xiwen, director of the party's Office of the Central Leading Group on Rural Work, said January snowstorms have had a serious impact on agricultural production in the south of the country, but the national supply of grain, pork and edible oils is not expected to be significantly affected.

Chen added that most winter grain crops are grown in the north, where the snowfall has been much milder.

"As for the impact on the whole year's grain production, we have to wait and see. We are not sure how long the storms will last or whether they will move north," he said.

/.. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=82f70558-eb4a-4c64-9f06-e14445c482e1

[Ghost Dog]

23. Indian outsourcing sector hit by Internet disruption

BANGALORE, India (AFP) - India's vital outsourcing industry, which relies heavily on the Internet, struggled to overcome supply disruptions Thursday after damage to undersea cables in the Mediterranean.

Internet connections may take up to 15 days to return to normal, businesses said, adding that telecommunications in neighbouring Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were also affected.

"Information-technology companies, software companies and call centres that provide online services to the UK or the US East Coast are the worst affected," said Rajesh Chharia, president of the Internet Service Providers' Association of India.

"Some of them are re-routing through the Pacific as a backup, but the voice quality and speed of traffic will be highly degraded," he said, adding this solution left operators with half their normal bandwidth.

Egyptian officials said Wednesday that an undersea communications cable had been cut, while in Kuwait the government said "weather conditions and maritime traffic" had damaged two cables, affecting most of the region.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080131/bs_afp/indiatelecomsinternetsouthasia_080131072654;_ylt=AkQFnyX61gQWjplG0JTu_6emOrgF

[KoKo]

41. interesting......what this could mean for the future..

"Egyptian officials said Wednesday that an undersea communications cable had been cut.."

So much business depends on the internet these days...one wonders if storms or even acts of sabotage couldn't shut the whole thing down one day in the future.

Something to think about that's not pleasant. :-(

[Ghost Dog]

64. Yes. Although the internet is designed for resilience through built-in redundancy,

for example by re-routing around failed sections of connectivity, in this case it seems that penny-pinching on physical infrastructure has led to traffic being concentrated on one, potentially very vulnerable, cable.

[kineneb]

75. penny wise, pound foolish

infrastructure: ya' get what ya' pay for...

[Ghost Dog]

25. Emerging debt-Asian financials rattled by bond insurers' woes

HONG KONG, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Asian bonds slid on Thursday as ratings agencies dealt multiple blows to U.S. bond insurers that triggered selling in financial institution credits.

Fitch Ratings downgraded FGIC Corp's bond insurance arm's top "AAA" rating to "AA", and Standard & Poor's said it cut or may cut ratings for hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations.

These downgrades overshadowed the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to lower its main interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.0 percent.

The widely followed iTRAXX Asia ex-Japan high-yield index <ITAHY5UA=ITX> -- an important indicator of risk aversion -- moved out by 15 basis points (bps) to 495/505 bps as investors sold bonds from banks and other financial institutions.

"It certainly does take the shine off the 50 bps cut from last night," said Anthony Michael, Singapore-based head of fixed income at Aberdeen Asset Management.

"The big issue for the credit markets for the next couple of weeks is what happens to these monoliners and whether we will see further downgrades," he said.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNTHKG2515820080131?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

31. HK stocks fall in choppy session, insurers hit again

HONG KONG, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks dropped on
Thursday, reversing opening gains amid a barrage of bad news,
ranging from China's ongoing weather-related problems to possible
credit downgrades of top U.S. bond insurers.

Worries that bad weather would inflict costly damage knocked
mainland insurers, while China Life (2628.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), the country's top
life insurer, reeled further after delivering a negative earnings
surprise this week.

Coal stocks slid as investors sought to lock in profits
following their recent rally and after Goldman Sachs downgraded
the sector .

"The market is in a negative direction and very news-driven,"
said Peter Lai, director at DBS Vickers. "Sentiment is
pessimistic because of the bad weather in mainland China and
subprime problems in the U.S."

Overnight, credit crunch fears resurfaced following
speculation on a financial television network that two top U.S.
bond insurers would lose their top credit rating. Ratings agency
Standard & Poor's said on Wednesday it cut or may cut its rating
on up to $534 billion of subprime bonds .

Trading was volatile after stocks reversed a firm start,
although losses narrowed as bargain hunters stepped in after
China names shed more than 4 percent.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI had fallen 0.7 percent
to 23,484.00 by lunch. The China Enterprises Index of Hong
Kong-listed mainland companies , or H shares, tumbled 2
percent to 12,499.29.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAHKG13360820080131?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

37. JGBs down on stocks, investors doubtful of BOJ cut

TOKYO, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Japanese government bonds edged down on Thursday as Tokyo shares recovered further in the afternoon, easing demand for safe-haven government debt.

A weak result of a two-year bond auction showed investors were wary of buying up low-yielding JGBs as they remain doubtful of a Bank of Japan rate cut, analysts said.

"The auction result looks a bit weaker than expected, reflecting the fact that the market is having difficulty pricing in a BOJ rate cut," said Akihiko Yokoyama, chief JGB strategist at JPMorgan Securities.

Futures rebounded briefly towards highs hit earlier in the session after BOJ board member Kiyohiko Nishimura said on Thursday the central bank will not rule out any policy options, which some market players interpreted as a sign that the central bank is open to cutting rates. .

Sentiment was also helped by overnight gains in U.S. Treasuries after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates again following last week's emergency rate cut.

But many bond investors stayed to the sidelines ahead of key U.S. economic data due on Friday, including a January jobs report that could provide clues on whether the United States is headed for a recession.

March 10-year futures 2JGBv1 edged down 0.05 point to 137.75, after falling as low as 137.67 from the day's high of 138.05.

Futures had rallied to a 28-month high of 139.15 last week when stocks plunged amid fears that a potential U.S. recession may drag down Japan's economy and force the BOJ to cut interest rates this year.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINT17635320080131?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

39. Japan stocks up nearly 2 pct on exporters, banks

TOKYO, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Japanese stocks rose almost 2 percent on Thursday, buoyed by short-covering in Toyota Motor Co (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and other blue-chip exporters, while banks erased nearly all their early losses as subprime fears eased slightly.

Investors sought out companies posting good earnings results regardless of sector, with Terumo Corp (4543.T: Quote, Profile, Research), Yahoo Japan Corp (4689.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and systems integrator NTT Data Corp (9613.T: Quote, Profile, Research) all surging on positive results and ratings upgrades.

But despite gains made on the final trading day of the month, the benchmark Nikkei was still down 11.2 percent for January.

Among a slew of earnings that came out after the close, Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a 6 percent rise in quarterly operating profit thanks to strong digital camera sales, but it cut its annual outlook.

Subprime issues continued to overshadow the Japanese company news, with market participants saying the problems still remained a deep concern despite the prospect of relief for one troubled U.S. bond insurer.

MBIA Inc (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said private-equity firm Warburg Pincus completed a $500 million investment in the bond insurer, reassuring investors. "Though the MBIA news has calmed the market, the longer-term situation is still dangerous. Having these companies raise funds is one thing, but getting funds from other companies is better -- but needs to be done quickly," said Takashi Ushio, head of the investment strategy division at Marusan Securities.

"Sentiment in the markets right now is extremely sensitive to bad news, meaning this kind of thing overshadows good news like yesterday's Fed rate cut, and this will continue for some time."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAT425120080131?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

20. European shares fall 1.5%, UBS leads banks lower

Thu Jan 31, 2008 7:24am EST
LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Banks led European shares lower by midday as investors worried about more losses in the sector but takeover talk boosted Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research).

At 1200 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 1.5 percent at 1,309.03 points, taking its losses for the month to nearly 13 percent, its worst monthly fall since September 2002.

UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research), which unveiled $4 billion in new write-downs on Wednesday, tumbled 8.6 percent, its biggest one-day fall in more than nine years.

The director of the Swiss Federal Banking Commission said in a newspaper interview UBS faced further writedowns as long as the credit crisis continued.

Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 3.6 percent on market talk of a profit warning. The bank declined to comment.

HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 2.5 percent, UniCredit (CRDI.MI: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 3 percent and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 4.5 percent.

But Societe Generale (SocGen), which disclosed a rogue trader scandal last week, gained 3.4 percent after BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) said that it was studying a possible bid for the stricken group.

...

The FTSEurofirst 300 is now off 20.1 percent from a multi-year peak hit in July last year. Many analysts consider a fall of 20 percent from such a peak as signalling a bear market.

A 50-basis-point cut from the Fed on Wednesday, even coming on top of an emergency 75-basis-point cut the previous week, did little to boost equities.

...

Rating agency Fitch downgraded bond insurer FGIC Corp's bond insurance arm and media speculation swirled that other rating agencies may follow suit and cut the AAA ratings of the top two U.S. insurers Ambac Financial Group (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and MBIA Inc. (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

MBIA, the world's largest bond insurer, which reported a quarterly loss on Thursday after a $3.5 billion write-down, fell nearly 13 percent in New York on Wednesday, while Ambac shares tumbled 17 percent.

Standard & Poor's said it cut or may cut hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. mortgage-backed securities and collateralised debt obligations.

Monoline insurers underwrite securitised debt products, effectively transferring the triple-A credit ratings the insurers enjoy to the repackaged debt securities that typically comprise tranches of risk well below the very highest grade.

If the insurers lose their top ratings, so do the bonds they have underwritten, forcing many investors to sell their holdings, forcing massive write-downs for investors in the repackaged bonds.

"If they're downgraded it makes it very difficult for them to do their job, and this is significant for U.S. financial markets and the Fed," said Dowds.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL3189561120080131?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

43. German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall as Prices Rise

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in Germany unexpectedly fell for a third month in December as higher inflation sapped consumers' spending power.

Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, declined 0.1 percent from November, when they dropped 1.9 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists forecast a gain of 1.7 percent, the median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.

``I think we all expected a rebound after two really bad months,'' said Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. ``However, since Germans perceive inflation to be much higher than it actually is, spending even at Christmas has been much more modest.''

Germans curbed spending after inflation accelerated last year to the fastest pace since records began in 1996, driven by a higher sales tax and rising energy prices. Retail sales fell for a fourth month in January, the Bloomberg PMI showed yesterday.

Germany's Christmas shopping season disappointed retailers, with sales failing to match last year's levels, the HDE store owners' association said Dec. 27, citing high oil prices.

Still, consumers are becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook as unemployment falls and have signaled they are more willing to spend, the GfK consumer confidence index showed last week. German business confidence also unexpectedly rose this month, suggesting growth in Europe's largest economy may withstand a U.S. slowdown.

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment in Germany probably fell to the lowest in almost 15 years this month as companies pushed ahead with hiring plans to fill orders, a survey of economist shows. The Federal Labor Office will publish the unemployment rate at 9:55 a.m. Frankfurt time.

``Better employment prospects and higher wages will boost spending'' in the second half of the year, according to Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking in Munich.

For all of 2007, the statistics office estimated that real retail sales fell 2.2 percent.

/. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=an_IYkNUnaa4&refer=economy

[Ghost Dog]

46. Ireland 'particularly vulnerable' to US recession

The International Monetary Fund has reportedly warned of serious damage to the Irish economy in the event of a recession in the US.The International Monetary Fund has reportedly warned of serious damage to the Irish economy in the event of a recession in the US.

Reports this morning say the body has concluded that a shock in the US economy would have a greater effect on Ireland than a similar upset in the eurozone or in the UK.

/.. http://www.thepost.ie/breakingnews/business/mheygbqlojsn/

[Ghost Dog]

55. Airbus warns of 'life threat' from weak dollar

The weakness of the dollar is threatening the survival of European planemaker Airbus, its chief executive Tom Enders has told employees in Germany.

Mr Enders made the claim as he gave warning that European production plants would have to face major cost cuts to help them to counter the impact of the currency.

“The dollar’s rapid decline is life-threatening for Airbus,” Mr Enders said in a speech. “The dollar exchange rate has gone beyond the pain barrier.”

The calls from the head of Europe's biggest manufacturer will increase the pressure on European ministers and the European Central Bank to take action against the continually weakening dollar.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, has been leading a campaign for a "fairer exchange rate".

The weak dollar is favouring Airbus's arch rival Boeing, the company claimed. The dollar hit a new low against the euro yesterday. In the year to date, the euro has gained about 12.5 per cent against the US currency.

Louis Gallois, chief executive of Airbus's parent company EADS, has said that every 10 cent decline of the dollar costs Airbus €1 billion. Airbus's restructuring plan, brought in last year to counteract the losses caused by delays to the launch of the A380 Superjumbo, was based on a dollar-euro exchange rate of $1.35, but the dollar touched $1.4873 yesterday.

This gives Boeing a massive advantage over Airbus, which is struggling to win back the lead position in aeroplane sales from the American group after it was destabilised and pushed into losses by delays to production of the new aircraft.

/... http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article2928397.ece

[Ghost Dog]

78. European equities sink on bond worries

Banking stocks led a broad sell-off in European stock markets on Thursday as escalating fears losses at ailing bond insurers will eat into their profits overshadowed another US rate cut.

The risk of widespread failure among monolines, which could lose their triple-A credit ratings due to their own exposure to the subprime crisis, stoked worries about banks which use them to protect their assets.

Swiss wealth manager UBS (NYSE:UBS) plunged 7.7 per cent to SFr42.52, Dutch financial services provider ING Groep (NYSE:ING) 5.2 per cent to EU21.23, Belgo-Dutch Fortis lost 4.9 per cent to EU14.50 and Franco-Belgian Dexia fell 6 per cent to EU15.75.

In late afternoon trade, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell by 1.4 per cent to 1,310.34, while the Xetra Dax was 1.6 per cent lower at 6,765.40 and France's CAC 40 fell 1.3 per cent to 4,809.70.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080131/bs_ft/fto013120081032595918;_ylt=AhX.c9rrNENbulaIQitV5pf2ULEF

[Ghost Dog]

79. Eurozone inflation soars to 14-year high

Eurozone inflation has surged to a 14-year high of 3.2 per cent, strengthening the European Central Bank's case for resisting interest rate cuts even as the region's growth slows.

In spite of sharp cuts in US interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the ECB is widely expected to leave its main interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent after its meeting next week.

The surprise pick-up in inflation, from December's 3.1 per cent, indicated that the "hump" in inflation caused by higher fuel and food prices is proving larger and longer-lasting than the ECB anticipated. January's rate was the highest since the ECB took responsibility in 1999 for monetary policy in the eurozone, which now covers 15 countries. It is also above its target of an annual rate "below but close" to 2 per cent.

However, the ECB's task has been complicated by signs that eurozone growth is slowing markedly as the global financial crisis unfolds. Economic confidence in the region has tumbled to the lowest level since early 2006, according to the European Commission. Its "economic sentiment" indicator fell from 103.4 points in December to 101.7 points.

Eurozone growth is typically less volatile than in the US. But Julian Callow of Barclays Capital said past history suggested a "quite significant" chance of the region falling into recession in the next two years.

Financial markets assumed the ECB would eventually respond to the mounting gloom, and have priced in two quarter percentage point cuts in ECB interest rates later this year.

Still, the eurozone slowdown is not yet severe.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080131/bs_ft/fto013120081302455934

[UpInArms]

26. US RATE FUTURES-Confident of another 50 bps Fed cut (yes - another rate cut!)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3130589220080131?sp=true

CHICAGO, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term interest rate futures extended gains on Thursday after weekly jobless claims spiked unexpectedly to the highest in over two years.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge continued to show prices running above the level preferred by many policy-makers in December.

Futures FFJ8 now show about a 90-percent implied chance that the Fed will slash benchmark rates by another 50 basis points in March, up from 40 percent late on Wednesday.

Another half-point rate cut would take the federal funds rate down to 2.5 percent.

"I think the Fed will stop at 2 percent," said Kurt Karl, head of economic research at Swiss Re in New York.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

30. Yikes, and my CD is maturing next week

The interest rate will be lower than the inflation rate.


:mad:

[Hugin]

59. Yay! We lurve Rate Cuts!

:eyes:

[Robbien]

66. Is America's negative interest rate just like Japan's in 1998?

With Ben Bernanke's latest 50 basis point rate reduction it's official -- the U.S. is paying borrowers to take money off its hands. This is just what the Japanese government did during its long economic nuclear winter that began in 1989 when its combined real estate and stock market bubble burst.

Now it's our turn. How so? The real interest rate is equal to the Nominal rate minus the Inflation rate. After today's 50 basis point rate cut, the Nominal rate is 3%. And today's GDP report noted that the inflation rate -- as measured by Bernanke's favorite measure -- the change in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) -- was 3.9% in 2007. The result is that the Fed is giving away money at the rate of -0.9%.

What does this mean? The Fed is so desperate to get us out of the economic slowdown that it is willing to pump up the inflation rate to do so. A bit less than 10 years ago, in November 1998, Japan did the same thing. Nine years after its economic slump began, according to CNNfn, Japanese banks were literally paying for banks to hold money for them thanks to their negative real interest rates.

The reason? A lack of trust in the solvency of its financial system. That sounds like just the thing we have here.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/01/30/is-americas-negative-interest-rate-just-like-japans-in-1998/

Interesting thought.

[UpInArms]

27. Jim Rogers: 'It's going to be much worse' - or 'Printing Press Gone Wild'

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/news/international/okeefe_rogers.fortune/index.htm

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- You might expect Jim Rogers to be gloating a little bit. After all, the famed investor has been predicting a recession in the U.S. economy for months and shorting the shares of now-tanking Wall Street investment banks for even longer. And with fears of a recession sparking both a worldwide market sell-off and emergency action from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, Rogers again looks prescient - just as he has over the past few years as the China-driven commodities boom he predicted almost a decade ago began kicked into high gear. But when I reached him by phone in Singapore the other day there was little hint of celebration in his voice. Instead, he took a serious tone.

"I'm extremely worried," he says. "I have been for a while, but I just see things getting much worse this time around than I expected." To Rogers, a longtime Fed critic, Bernanke's decision to ride to the market's rescue with a 75-basis-point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate only a week before its scheduled meeting (at which time they cut it another 50 basis points) is the latest sign that the central bank isn't willing to provide the fiscal discipline that he thinks the economy desperately needs.

"Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc., but I'm afraid it's going to be much worse," he says. "Bernanke is printing huge amounts of money. He's out of control and the Fed is out of control. We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we've had since the Second World War. It's not a good scene."

Rogers looks at the Fed's willingness to add liquidity to an already inflationary environment and sees the history of the 1970s repeating itself. Does that mean stagflation? "It is a real danger and, in fact, a probability."

...more...

[Roland99]

36. Ayup...the writing's been on the wall for quite some time for those willing to look.

And like I wrote late yesterday...


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3161690&mesg_id=3162990

[DemReadingDU]

45. Nice posting

Spouse and I have seen it coming too. A year ago, we pulled out of stock funds and put the money in bank CDs. Unfortunately, they are coming due, and the interest rate is lower than inflation.

maybe I should pull out the money and buy canned goods

:crazy:

[Roland99]

67. ING Direct Orange account is probably still near 4%. Haven't checked in a while.

[Nickster]

76. Just barely. They've been cutting back, so I'd expect it to dump under 4% soon.

[Yael]

73. That was chilling

I was too wrapped up in the Edwards news yesterday to follow this thread like I usually do through the day, and missed it.

Thanks for the link!

[UpInArms]

28. 9:32 EST blood in the water - Dow down -182

Dow 12,259.93 182.90 (1.47%)
Nasdaq 2,314.60 34.40 (1.46%)
S&P 500 1,341.87 13.94 (1.03%)
10-Yr Bond 3.588% 0.145

NYSE Volume 72,263,960.938
Nasdaq Volume 58,511,257.812

[NewYorkerfromMass]

29. Suddenly Fed rate cuts not working

new bottoms coming today...

[Roland99]

34. 9:38am - Bargain hunters mopping up the blood

Dow 12,317.07 -125.76
Nasdaq 2,322.27 -26.73
S&P 500 1,337.25 -18.56
Oil $91.00 $-1.33
10 YR 3.59% -0.15
Gold $927.70 $1.40

[UpInArms]

42. 20/20 Hindsight: Moody's says revises 2006 subprime loss expectation

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL3191687720080131

LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service said on Thursday it has revised its assumptions for losses on loans backing 2006 vintage subprime residential mortgage securities to 14 to 18 percent.

The agency did not say what the previous assumption was. No one at the agency could immediately be reached for comment.

"We are updating our views on the possible loan losses on the 2006 subprime vintage in response to current performance that is proving to be much worse than in prior years and is demonstrating a progressive deterioration," said Moody's Chief Credit Officer Nicolas Weill.

...a bit more...

:wtf:

[Ghost Dog]

56. Global economy faces rising plausible stress scenarios in 2008-09 - Moody's

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Moody's Investors Service said the global economy is at a high level of 'transition risk' and the probability of a highly adverse outcome has increased with the impact of liquidity and credit crisis on the US economy being unclear.

"In this context, any micro-level credit analysis should take account of the broader economic and financial context and consider the credit risk implications of a decidedly less favourable outcome for the world economy," the ratings agency said in a report.

Moody's said the global economic and financial scenario for 2008-09 is one of continued solid growth globally, increased differentiation between advanced and emerging economies with the US facing recessionary headwinds, low to moderate global inflation but buoyant international trade, narrowing global imbalances, a slowly subsiding stress on financial markets.

"..The central scenario for 2008-09 does not mark the end of either the 'Great Moderation' (high growth, low inflation and low volatility) or the 'Interest Rate Conundrum' (the unusual situation of having very low long-term interest rates despite a buoyant world economy)," the report said.

It added that "in this scenario, some financial pain continues to be absorbed, especially as the US economy confronts recessionary forces, while the engines of a globalised economy continue to fire."

/. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=575c3ef1-94db-402b-9015-d6948aa949dc

[Harkpark]

63. How is the weather in Spain now?

:) ......

[Ghost Dog]

68. Hello Harkpark and welcome to DU!

Here in the Canary Islands there's a gentle NE tradewind breezing through a sunny blue sky, a around 22ºC max - 18ºC min.

As regards the Peninsula, yesterday in Catalonia was quite warm and sunny in Barcelona; fresh, clear and sunny in the Pyrenees (4ºC - -2ºC) with snow above 1800m and firm conditions on most ski slopes. Temperatures dropping.

As for the rest of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, you'd have to look it up. See eg. http://www.lavanguardia.es/eltiempo/index.html

And, if you mean the economic weather - I'd say clouding over with some foreboding. Most people are only just beginning to wake up to the global economic situation. The socialist PSOE national government has announced tax cuts for the lowest paid and financial assistance for young adults (to help pay rent and (few) mortgages) and for those with new babies. The main rightist PP opposition (Aznar's party) preaches doom and gloom. National elections take place early March...

:hi:

[Harkpark]

72. Damn Brit get all the fun

:hug:

[UpInArms]

71. more info: Moody's boosts subprime loss estimate up to 85 pct

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3131059820080131

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Credit rating company Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said it raised its assumptions for losses on loans backing subprime mortgages as much as 85 percent in response to deteriorating performance.

Average losses for loans made in 2006 -- as underwriting standards were loosened more -- will likely fall between 12 percent and 24 percent, depending on variables such as house price depreciation and the impact of rising payments on adjustable-rate loans, Moody's said.

Moody's projection for losses in 2006 subprime loans ranges between 14 percent and 18 percent, between the extremes. In October, Moody's projected losses would fall between 6.5 percent and 15 percent.

"We see delinquencies still going up, not having reached a plateau," Moody's Chief Credit Officer Nicolas Weill said.

"There are also more concerns by the Moody's economists on the potential for higher unemployment and recession" and home price declines, he added.

...a bit more...

[DemReadingDU]

48. Roubini: “It’s Insolvency, not Just Illiquidity, Stupid!”...

1/30/08 Stock Market to the Fed: “It’s Insolvency, not Just Illiquidity, Stupid!”...and the Systemic Financial Meltdown Risk from the Monolines’ Crisis by Nouriel Roubini

The reaction of the stock market to the unexpected 75bps cut by the Fed last week and its reaction today to the further 50bps cut clearly shows that markets and investors are now fully realizing that the US economy is suffering from serious credit, i.e. insolvency, problems, not just illiquidity ones; and that Fed monetary policy can partly tackle illiquidity problems but cannot resolve insolvency ones.

First, note that we have now an insolvent subprime economy where at least two million of households with subprime mortgages may default; where at least 10 million households will have their entire housing equity wiped out (negative equity) if home prices fall – as likely – between 20 and 30% thus giving them a large incentive to use “jingle mail” (default on their mortgage, abandon their home and send the keys to their bank); where 220 subprime mortgage lenders have already gone bankrupt or our of business; where dozens of home builders have gone out of business and now some of the largest ones may also go bankrupt; where dozens of highly leveraged and insolvent financial institutions have gone out of business or suffered massive losses; where a large number of corporate firms will start to default on their junk bonds once a recession leads to severe financial distress for them; where monoline bond insurers are severely undercapitalized and possibly insolvent if – as likely – the losses on their insured RMBS, CDOs, other ABS products and even muni bonds – are much larger than their capital base and larger than the $15 billion capital injection that the rescue plan is considering.


lots more...
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/241162

[DemReadingDU]

52. Internet failure hits two continents

1/31/08 DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (CNN) -- Large swathes of Asia, the Middle East and north Africa had their high-technology services crippled Thursday following a widespread Internet failure which brought many businesses to a standstill and left others struggling to cope.

One major telecommunications provider blamed the outage, which started Wednesday, on a major undersea cable failure in the Mediterranean.

India's Internet bandwidth has been sliced in half, The Associated Press reported, leaving its lucrative outsourcing industry trying to reroute traffic to satellites and other cables through Asia.

Reports say that Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain are also experiencing severe problems.

Nations that have been spared the chaos include Israel -- whose traffic uses a different route -- and Lebanon and Iraq. Many Middle East governments have backup satellite systems in case of cable failure.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/01/31/dubai.outage/index.html


I'd go nuts without the Internet and the SMW!

:P

[UpInArms]

53. S&P sees more than $265 bln subprime losses

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3155902020080131

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Wednesday said total losses for financial institutions from the unfolding mortgage market problems will eventually reach more than $265 billion.

The rating agency's comment came after it said it cut or may cut its ratings on $270 billion worth of U.S. mortgage-backed securities and put $264 billion of collateralized debt obligations on watch for a possible downgrade.

[Zenlitened]

61. Hmmm... What's $265 billion in Reality Math? $350b? An even half-trillion?

We never get all the bad news at once. Instead, each day, we get news that's "a little less good than yesterday's news!" :crazy:

[UpInArms]

57. Sprint sees substantial ($31 BILLION) 4th-qtr (goodwill) impairment charge

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWNAS875720080131

NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Sprint Nextel Corp (S.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it will take a material goodwill impairment charge representing a substantial portion, and potentially all, of the $31 billion goodwill on its balance sheet.

The third-largest U.S. mobile service provider said in a regulatory filing that its initial assessment found that the net book value of its wireless unit exceeds fair value of the unit. Sprint said it has to conduct a second review to measure the size of any impairment charge.

...more...

I think S/N is a crapweasel corporation and now it appears everyone else does also :eyes:

[Hugin]

58. So, how do I sign up for one of these 'Goodwill Impairment Charges'?

My Ego suddenly found out I'm not worth nearly as much as my Id claimed. :)

[UpInArms]

60. isn't that just a ducky deal, Prag?

they can take a non-material $31 billion hit to their bottom line - and lookie there! No TAXES!

[UpInArms]

62. Get Ready to BEND OVER! FDIC chief sees hundreds of thousands of foreclosures coming

01. FDIC chief sees hundreds of thousands of foreclosures coming
10:36 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

02. FDIC's Bair sees no rebound in housing this year
10:36 AM ET, Jan 31, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

This is going to make the S&L bailout look like peanuts.

[bobo4u]

81. This should help..

http://www.youwalkaway.com/

[Roland99]

65. 11:07am - Almost all better now

Dow 12,404.30 -38.53
Nasdaq 2,340.05 -8.95
S&P 500 1,351.09 -4.72
Oil $89.70 $-2.63
10 YR 3.61% -0.12
Gold $927.30 $1.00

[Maeve]

69. A view from the shopping cart

I have NEVER seen so much left-over Christmas crap in stores this late in January. folks not only didn't buy as much as the stores expected, they aren't snapping up 50%-75% off bargains like they normally do. This does not bode well...That goes for the "anything for a buck" stores, craft shops, card shops and basic retailers. And I don't think the outlook for Valentine's Day is much better, but the stores are crammed with hearts and flowers. (Lord, but I'm glad my kids are past the school party age!)

Have fun, folks and as AnneD warns...watch out for the bears (and don't step in the bullish crap, either!)

[kineneb]

77. same here, very bearish

Left over Christmas stuff on the back shelves at local Rite Aid... while Valentines' stuff is in the front. Mostly gift-y stuff (indoor fountains, etc), wrapping paper, and lights left over. Candy sold slowish, but was gone first. People need sweets and chocolate to get through all of this? (got some good deals on chocolate cherries @ 50% off)

[Maeve]

84. Hey, I got chocolate cherries for 75% off!!

Dark chocolate, at that....

[AnneD]

83. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. I'm a little bit under the weather.:hangover: I have had a huge number of really sick kids at school (temps of over 100.), and between parents not wanting to take time off from work, teachers wanting to send kids home, and the kids and I being in the center-something had to give-I wasn't expecting it to be me though. I am struggling to make it through the day, but this is my first day with my usual meds. We'll see how it goes....

Maeve:hi: I went to Michael's to pick up a few knitting items (and some paper and pencils for one of my promising students) They had no room for the Valentine and St Patrick's Day for all the Christmas stuff (at 50%-75% 0ff). And the Mardi Gras stuff isn't moving too well either. I do a lot of seasonal decorations because of the kids-so I have gotten a few things on sale-but very little).

And I have to echo Roland's good words for this thread. Reading this thread everyday is like at least a Bachelors in Economics. It has really sharpened my skills and I can cut through the WS mum bo jumbo far better now. Economics is basically common sense. I have, with a little time, some true facts, and a little brain power-been able to unravel some complicated scams that have been pulled, esp. as of late. I fully credit this thread with helping me understand and make wiser choices. It has saved my assets more than once.

It's gonna be a hard rain coming down.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[DemReadingDU]

92. Good bargains at Barnes & Nobles

Mostly Christmas themed hard backed books, but there are some other bargains too.

And at only a buck or two, I found some great bargains for the pre-school grandkids!

[Ghost Dog]

80. EU nears WTO action vs China financial info rules

BRUSSELS, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The European Commission has taken a step towards launching action at the World Trade Organisation against China over what Brussels regards as the unfair treatment of financial information providers in China.

The European Union and the United States have previously expressed concern to China over the case and said they might seek litigation at the WTO.

Brussels and Washington object to rules introduced in 2006 that require financial information providers such as Reuters Group (RTR.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Bloomberg to operate in China through Chinese state news agency Xinhua and not directly.

A notice in the European Commission's official register referred to a proposal by EU trade officials for a request to the WTO for the launch of a dispute settlement procedure.

The proposal, dated Jan. 25, has been put to other Commission departments.

"The Chinese are well aware of our concerns in this area," said a European Commission official familiar with the situation.

"While no final decision has yet been reached on whether to request WTO consultations, we have started to prepare for such an eventuality should our current approach not yield results soon," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNTL3176227420080131?rpc=44

[TalkingDog]

82. on a lark: Trucks

1 year
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?D4=1&ViewType=0&&ShowChtBt=Refresh+Chart&DateRangeForm=1&Symbol=US%3ATRAN&ComparisonsForm=1&CP=0&PT=5&CE=0&D5=0&3=0&PeriodType=5&C9=0&DisplayForm=1


1 month
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?D4=1&ViewType=0&ShowChtBt=Refresh+Chart&DateRangeForm=1&Symbol=US%3aTRAN&ComparisonsForm=1&CE=0&D5=0&3=0&C9=0&DisplayForm=1&CP=0&PT=3


NASDAQ and DJI



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Ghost Dog]

85. U.S. loses its status as economic world power

BY TRUDY RUBIN | Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial board member of The Philadelphia Inquirer, where this first appeared.
January 31, 2008
DAVOS, Switzerland

The World Economic Forum has proved to be an uncanny barometer of global trends. Over the past decade, the United States has been lionized as world leader, economic giant and home of high-tech wizards such as Bill Gates.

When the high-tech bubble burst, when deficits rose, when the Iraq war went sour, the shine on the American model dimmed. But, despite widespread dismay over U.S. foreign policy, few here used to question America's role as the world's unipolar power.

What a difference a year makes. Davos 2008 has laid bare a world in which no superpower seems to be in charge. The unipolar American moment is deemed over, in part a casualty of the Bush administration's political and economic policies, in larger part the result of global economic changes that are shifting wealth elsewhere.

But we have not entered a multipolar world: China and India, though on the rise, aren't ready to take the global lead, nor can Europe do so. The consensus at Davos seems to be that we now live in a "nonpolar" world, with America too strong to stand on the sidelines, but too weak to implement its agenda alone.

The metaphor for Davos 2008 came when its executive chairman, Klaus Schwab, suggested onstage to Condoleezza Rice that America was a piano and the world the orchestra. Playing metaphorically on the secretary of state's talents as a pianist, Schwab asked whether the piano and orchestra could play together in harmony.

Rice asked whether Schwab wanted to be the conductor. But among the 2,500 top chief executives, politicians and intellectuals at the meeting, many believe there is no conductor at all.

/more... http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-oprub315557732jan31,0,4366706.story

[DemReadingDU]

94. good article - a few more snippets

"It's remarkable how few have noticed we are entering an entirely new era of history - the rise of Asia," says Kishore Mahbubani, dean of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. "By 2050," he adds, "the world's four largest economies will be China, the United States, India and Japan" - in that order.

Davos 2008 was adrift as its members tried to figure out who might become that global conductor and handle the orchestra in the collegial manner suggested by Schwab. Most attendees were casting an anxious eye on the upcoming U.S. election

http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-oprub315557732jan31,0,4366706.story

[UpInArms]

87. TREASURIES-Rallying 2-yr notes end best month since Oct 1987

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3134800820080131?sp=true

NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. government bonds rallied on Thursday as fresh concerns about the troubled financial sector produced a wave of safe-haven buying in short-dated debt, ending their strongest month since October 1987.

The latest worries came after Standard & Poor's cut its "AAA" ratings on FGIC Corp's bond insurance arm and placed its top ratings on the bond insurance arm of MBIA Inc (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on review for downgrade.

Investors have worried that the declining fortunes of bond insurers could cause deeper financial losses on top of last year's mortgage debacle and deal a further blow to beaten down stocks and the economy.

All of this is a boost for government bonds, investors' favorite place to safe-guard their cash in times of uncertainty, and Treasuries responded accordingly with a late rally just before Wall Street's close.

"S&P downgraded FGIC," said Rick Klingman, managing director of U.S. Treasury trading at BNP Paribas in New York. "That's why bonds are back up."

...more...

[UpInArms]

88. Wall St jumps; S&P 500 ends worst Jan. since 1990

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3134735420080131?sp=true

NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks surged on Thursday after a major bond insurer reassured investors about its stability, fueling a rebound by financial shares hammered recently by the prospect of crumbling credit markets.

Even with the day's strong advance, the S&P 500 capped its worst January performance since 1990 as crises in the credit and housing markets stirred fears the U.S. economy was at the edge of a recession. The Nasdaq had its weakest start to a year ever.

The market rallied after MBIA Inc (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the No. 1 U.S. bond insurer, said it had enough cash to run its business of guaranteeing payments on corporate and municipal bonds. Standard & Poor's also told the company it had enough capital to keep its triple-A rating, MBIA executives said.

Financial shares, including Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), rallied on the news. A downgrade could lead to billions of dollars of more losses and write-downs related to the subprime mortgage meltdown.

<snip>

For the month, the Dow lost 4.6 percent, marking its worst January since 2000. The S&P lost 6.2 percent, its worst January since 1990. For the Nasdaq, the 9.9 percent decline on the month was its worst-ever January performance.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

89. So we're looking at these US closing numbers, and spiel:

Dow 12,650.36 Up 207.53 (1.67%)
Nasdaq 2,389.86 Up 40.86 (1.74%)
S&P 500 1,378.55 Up 22.74 (1.68%)
10-Yr Bond 3.6390% Down 0.0940
NYSE Volume 5,369,650,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,925,491,250

4:25 pm : On Thursday, the major indices were able to rally, despite opening sharply lower in the wake of a disappointing unemployment claim report. Sentiment was lifted due to a bond insurer's positive outlook. This is in contrast to Wednesday, when concerns over bond insurers caused the stock market to give up all of its FOMC induced gains.

The major indices finished modestly off their highs on a report released with five minutes left in the session that said Standard & Poor's put MBIA's (MBI 15.50, +1.54) credit rating on negative watch and downgraded FGIC to AA from AAA. Yesteday, Fitch cut FGIC's rating, so its downgrade was not surprising. S&P affirmed Ambac's (ABK 11.64, +0.79) AAA rating.

Despite the S&P report, the major indices still finished sharply higher, led by financials (+2.7%), retailers (+4.4%) and consumer discretionary (+3.4%). These three areas were the main laggards in 2007, and stand to benefit from the recent rate cutting cycle. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P all closed 3.3% above their session lows.

Bond insurers weighed on sentiment in the early going after MBIA reported a larger than expected loss. MBIA said it had an operating loss of $3.38 per share in the fourth quarter, compared to a profit of $1.16 a year ago.

Sentiment then turned positve, as MBIA led financials and the broader market higher. MBIA's conference call, which lasted four hours, eased traders' uneasiness.

Specifically, the company acknowledged it will have significant losses, but nothing to justify the 80% decline in the share price since last year. The company said its capital plan will exceed all AAA rating requirements. It said a downgrade would impact capital by $100 million to $200 million in a worst case scenario. The company said it will not be forced into bankruptcy and that it is virtually impossible to imagine a situation where MBI would become insolvent.

In economic news, a Dept. of Labor report showed jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 26 jumped to 375,000 from 306,000. Economists expected 320,000 claims. Stocks opened sharply lower on the report. The knee jerk reaction was overdone, as one week does not make a trend, and Briefing.com expected claims to increase due to seasonal factors.

The Dept. of Commerce said December personal income rose 0.5% and spending rose 0.2%, which were mostly in-line with expectations. Separately, fourth quarter employment costs rose 0.8%, in-line with expectations.

All ten sectors closed higher. Energy (+0.3%) underperformed on a relative basis due to a 0.8% slip in crude oil prices. DJ30 +207.53 NASDAQ +40.86 NQ100 +1.8% R2K +2.6% SP400 +2.2% SP500 +22.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 966/2039/2.87 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 776/2384/2.19 bln

3:30 pm : The major indices climb to fresh session highs with the Dow now posting a gain of more than 200 points. Retailers are up 5.4%, financials are up 2.9% and consumer discretionary is up 3.9%.

Although stocks are looking to end the month on a high note, January has been a volatile and disappointing start to the trading year, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P down 4.9%, 10.0% and 6.3% yesterday. The following is the best and worst performing industry groups this month. Best: 1) Homebuilding +27% 2) Home improvement retail +14.5% 3) Education services +13.7%. Worst: 1) Consumer electronics -36.4% 2) oil & gas equipment -19.8% 3) home entertainment software -19.4%.

All sectors are in the red this year. Financials, the worst-performing sector in 2007, is outperforming on a relative basis with a 0.5% loss. Tech is the main laggard with a 12.4% loss.DJ30 +208.32 NASDAQ +41.35 SP500 +23.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 975/2001/2.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 831/2328/1.42 bln

3:00 pm : The stock market is trading near its best level of the session. Energy (-0.7%) has pared most of its losses in conjunction with crude oil (-0.9% to $91.52)

Reuters reports New York Gov. Spitzer said he and the state insurance superintendent were making "good progress" in creating a plan to help bond insurers. Both MBIA (MBI 14.72, +0.76) and Ambac (ABK 11.72, +0.87) are trading off their session highs.

Despite the Fed cutting interest rates by 125 basis points in the last two weeks, traders still expect more. Fed funds futures price a 68% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut on March 18, with the rest of the bets on a 25 basis point cut. The meeting is a long time away, so expectations may change substantially by then.DJ30 +155.75 NASDAQ +33.06 SP500 +18.29 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1090/1884/1.91 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 941/2196/1.27 bln

2:30 pm : The major indices hit or reach their session highs before retreating a bit. The beaten down areas of 2007, financials (+2.3%), consumer discretionary (+3.0%) and retailers (+4.2%), are providing leadership. Those areas are also outperforming the broader market year-to-date.

Bank of America (BAC 43.99, +1.78), CVS Caremark (CVS 38.60, +2.58) and Wal-Mart (WMT50.49, +1.34) are the leaders among the 361 stocks trading higher in the S&P 500. Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM 84.57, -0.76) and Merck (MRK 45.96, 0.74) are the main laggards.DJ30 +135.51 NASDAQ +28.91 SP500 +14.32 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1098/1862/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1026/2089/1.15 bln

2:00 pm : The stock market climbs near its session high after a new wave of buying interest. All sectors are seeing some interest, and there is notable strength within consumer discretionary (+2.6%) and financials (+1.9%).

During a question and answer session, MBIA (MBI 15.28, +1.32) said they could not be forced into bankruptcy. The company said it is virtually impossible to imagine a situation where MBI would become insolvent and go into a rehabilitation program in New York. DJ30 +107.38 NASDAQ +20.93 SP500 +11.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1092/1821/1.59 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1034/2075/1.08 bln

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update (emphasis added)

[Demeter]

91. RIIIGHT!

Okay, I'm imagining it.....and I'm just average in imagination.

[Ghost Dog]

90. OT. I've been testing my new broadband/phone wiring by viewing this highly recommended material:

"Kill The Messenger" (Sibel Edmonds): The Zadig Documentary

By Zadig Productions (Produced by Bruno Nahon) with the participation of Canal + ©2006
Direction and Investigation by: Mathieu Verboud
Direction and Photography by: Jean-Robert Viallet
Editing and Music by: Tal Zana
"Sibel Edmonds" written and played by: Cary Hood

English Version by: SBS Australia ©2007

Sibel Edmonds - "Kill The Messenger" - Part 1/6 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=99lH4B3slGM
Sibel Edmonds - "Kill The Messenger" - Part 2/6 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=D4Tb_py9CzI
Sibel Edmonds - "Kill The Messenger" - Part 3/6 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=pB64UVyp-x0
Sibel Edmonds - "Kill The Messenger" - Part 4/6 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=fCigSefXYjg
Sibel Edmonds - "Kill The Messenger" - Part 5/6 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=iP2S-IileTA
Sibel Edmonds - "Kill The Messenger" - Part 6/6 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=CRRvRKjRIzo

This is copyright material, so who knows how long it will remain online at Youtube.
The 60 minute SBS Australia DVD is available for AUD 38.45 here

With many thanks to DU's lukery (Luke Ryland) for the heads up and much, much more.

[DemReadingDU]

93. lukery has been following Sibel's story for years

His latest blog has lots of additional info about Sibel Edmonds
http://lukery.blogspot.com/

[Ghost Dog]

98. Yup. I plan to drill right down into this story. Maybe requires some Spanish translation...

:hi:

I found Philip Giraldi quite convincing in the video. I've a feeling I may have run into him once (shortly after 9/11) on a flight out of Barcelona.

[Roland99]

103. Thanks!

P.S. I love Firefox video downloader add-ons! :-)

[citizen snips]

95. Google 4Q Profit Misses Analyst Target

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Google Inc.'s earnings and revenue growth decelerated more than analysts anticipated during the fourth quarter, magnifying worries that the Internet search leader's moneymaking machine is bogging down as the U.S. economy teeters on the brink of recession.

The quarterly results released Thursday spooked already jittery investors, causing Google's slumping stock price to plunge another 7 percent.

Google earned $1.21 billion, or $3.79 per share, during the final three months of 2007. That's up 17 percent from net income of $1.03 billion, or $3.29 per share, in the same period a year earlier.

It's the first time Google's profit Google's quarterly profit has climbed by less than 25 percent since the Mountain View-based company went public nearly 3 1/2 years ago.

If not for stock awards given to its employees, Google said it would have made $4.43 per share -- a penny below the average estimate among analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/earns_google.html

[citizen snips]

96. Beer Sales Lift Anheuser-Busch Profit

ST. LOUIS (AP) -- Resurgent beer sales helped lift Anheuser-Busch's profit 12 percent in the fourth quarter, but the brewer warned Thursday that rising costs could eat into earnings this year.

The maker of Budweiser and Bud Light said it earned $214 million, or 29 cents per share, in the three months ended Dec. 31, up from $191 million, or 25 cents, in the same period in 2006.

Net sales rose 8 percent to $3.7 billion after excise taxes were deducted.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected earnings per share of 32 cents.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/earns_anheuser_busch.html

[citizen snips]

97. Consumer Spending Slowed in December

WASHINGTON -- Buffeted by soaring fuel prices and tighter credit, consumers increased their spending at the weakest pace in six months. In other signs of trouble, applications for unemployment benefits last week soared by the largest number since Hurricane Katrina.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that consumer spending edged up just 0.2 percent in December -- the year's peak shopping season. That was down sharply from a 1 percent gain in November. It was the weakest performance in this area since a similar 0.2 percent rise in June of last year.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that the number of laid-off workers filing applications for unemployment benefits increased by 69,000 to 375,000 last week. That was the highest level for jobless claims since the week of Oct. 8, 2005, when the economy was dealing with the disruptions caused by Hurricane Katrina and other Gulf Coast hurricanes.

The increase in jobless claims was more than triple what economists had been expecting, although part of the increase was blamed on technical difficulties in adjusting the figures around the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Analysts said the greater concern was the slowdown in consumer spending, which they predicted would continue in the current quarter, the period many believe will be the maximum danger point for a recession.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/economy.html

[citizen snips]

99. Electronic Arts Swings to 3Q Loss

NEW YORK (AP) -- Video game publisher Electronic Arts Inc. said Thursday it swung to a loss in the third quarter, hurt by restructuring charges and the way it accounts for online-enabled games.

The company acknowledged its business has been "mixed" in a robust market for games, though adjusted earnings met Wall Street's expectations.

For the quarter ended Dec. 31, the world's biggest independent video game maker posted a loss of $33 million, or 10 cents per share, compared with a profit of $160 million, or 50 cents per share, in the same period a year ago.

Adjusted earnings, excluding a change in revenue recognition and other items, were $290 million, or 90 cents per share, matching average analyst expectations as surveyed by Thomson Financial.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/earns_electronic_arts.html?.v=4

[citizen snips]

100. MasterCard Profit Up on Card Use Abroad

NEW YORK (AP) -- MasterCard's U.S. cardholders charged more in the last quarter of 2007 than they did in the previous year, but are spending less on discretionary items and more on necessities.

Americans may be taking on more debt to pay for the high price of food and gasoline, which could be a troubling trend for people if the economy keeps worsening and costs don't ease.

MasterCard reported Thursday a more than sevenfold rise in profit. The main drivers were the sale of a stake in a Brazilian company and strong card use by travelers and customers overseas, as well as a 10 percent rise in U.S. cards' gross dollar volume.

The company's shares soared $18, or 9.5 percent, to $207 Thursday.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/earns_mastercard.html

[citizen snips]

101. Mattel Reports Profit Despite Recalls

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Mattel Inc. posted a 15 percent gain in fourth-quarter profit, even though it entered the crucial holiday season in the shadow of negative publicity over its recalls of millions of Chinese-made toys tainted with lead.

The company said Thursday that tax gains and strong international sales of Hot Wheels and other toys helped offset the cost of the recalls.

Still, the world's largest toy maker warned that it expected to rack up additional costs in 2008 as a result of the recall problems.

"There're going to be sizable legal costs this year," Robert A. Eckert, Mattel's chairman and chief executive, said during a conference call with Wall Street analysts. "We have a lot of litigation around the world on things related to product recalls, and we've got a significant case coming to trial this year."

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/earns_mattel.html

[citizen snips]

102. Money Funds Rose in Latest Week

NEW YORK (AP) -- Total money market mutual fund assets rose by $40.40 billion to $3.315 trillion for the week, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.

Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $16.16 billion in the latest week to $1.213 trillion.

Assets of taxable money market funds in the retail category rose by $15.30 billion to $922.15 billion for the week ended Wednesday, the Washington-based mutual fund trade group said. Tax-exempt fund assets rose by $859 million to $290.35 billion.

Assets of institutional money market funds rose by $24.24 billion to $2.102 trillion for the same period. Among institutional funds, taxable money market fund assets rose by $22.53 billion to $1.918 trillion; assets of tax-exempt funds rose by $1.71 billion to $184.10 billion.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/money_funds.html?.v=1