STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 19

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 19, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 62
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2582 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2873
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 18, 2008

Dow... 8,424.75 +151.17 (+1.79%)
Nasdaq... 1,483.27 +1.22 (+0.08%)
S&P 500... 859.12 +8.37 (+0.98%)
Gold future... 732.70 -9.30 (-1.27%)
30-Year Bond 4.14% -0.06 (-1.47%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.54% -0.15 (-4.04%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Upside Reversal as TBTF Oversold Extremes Abound
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

The most important turns in markets are always among the most difficult to handle, as the markets seem to linger almost endlessly before the reversal occurs. In the equity markets, it is always all about ‘juncture recognition’ and deciding where a market is in the grander scheme of things. In today’s update, we focus on ‘juncture recognition’ as the current crossroads in markets is surely one of the grandest in sometime. In watching the markets today, and over the last few days, we have been taken in by the enormity of the situation confronting the US equity market. Simply put, it is either “breakdown” or “turn.” In this vein, it is encouraging for those hoping for a return to stability that prices were able to rally up and close in the plus this Tuesday. Yet, the litmus test of any upside reversal day is always in the knock on ‘follow thru’ or lack thereof. Should prices reverse lower once again, allowing the S&P to breakdown further below today’s lows, the outcome is likely to be quite dire over an extended period of time. In my view, were this to unfold it could end ushering in a whole new universe of selling, possibly dwarfing the selling already seen thus far with the world plunging into a dark ages of a Second Great Depression. For all his bearishness, the legendary Doug Casey might have hit on the mark after all, with his concept of ‘The Greater Depression.’

As we see it, for the S&P, the current broad zone between 780 and 830 is really “make or break.” Ditto for the financials! Anyone seen the chart of Citicorp(C) lately? It bears an all too striking similarity to that of New Century Financial, or AIG just before those notables plunged to their death. Even BankAmerica is reeling, and appears ready to founder with any further concentrated selling pressure likely to force even more intense liquidation. Can the United States withstand the loss of Citicorp, or BankAmerica, or both in this already weakened state? For that matter, can the world withstand it, as the veritable collapse in the US economy that this would foreshadow would surely spell disaster for many economies abroad.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Building Permits Oct
Briefing.com 760K
Consensus 772K
Prior 786K

08:30 Core CPI Oct
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.1%

08:30 CPI Oct
Briefing.com -0.7%
Consensus -0.8%
Prior 0.0%

08:30 Housing Starts Oct
Briefing.com 780K
Consensus 780K
Prior 817K

14:00 FOMC Minutes Oct 29

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

11. Consumer Prices in U.S. Probably Tumbled as Spending Slumped

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of living in the U.S. probably slid in October by the most in almost six decades as fuel costs plummeted and retailers discounted merchandise to entice shell-shocked customers, economists said before a government report today.

Consumer prices probably dropped 0.8 percent last month, the most since 1949, after being unchanged in September, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Excluding food and energy, so-called core prices may have risen 0.1 percent for a second month.

.....

The Labor Department’s consumer-price report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Forecasts in the survey of 77 economists ranged from a decline of 1.2 percent to a 0.4 percent increase.

A separate report at the same time may show the housing recession at the heart of the economic downturn shows no signs of letting up. New-home starts in October dropped to a 780,000 annual pace, the lowest level since records began in 1959, economists forecast the Commerce Department will report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aCJ_onGD3jsk&refer=us

[Hugin]

34. I'm not seeing it.

In fact, several of my routine purchases have increased in price around 20% in the last two weeks.

Food mostly. :scared:

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

41. The food distribution industry...

Is doing a mighty impressive job of making money off of the growing margins between market prices and prices to consumers. Of course, some of the blame can be placed at the feet of the transportation companies who are doing the same thing, but all in all, this is traumatic vombat proctology for the consumer that is taking place here. One would hope that someone in Congress or the new administration would start to notice the disconnects.

Of course, I expect nothing out of this present bunch of mouthbreathers.

[Ghost Dog]

47. Very pertinent observation. n/t

[Mojorabbit]

77. My BIL works for a food company

they supply goods to bakeries and it is really bad out there. The cost of wheat etc has gone thru the roof and when the price of gas went up they had to add that cost for trucking the goods. They tried to absorb some of the cost but could do it no more. Lots of small bakeries have gone under and those that are still around have cut back on purchases. They have laid off a bunch of people and he is afraid for his job. A bigger company is in the wings looking to purchase the company. It is a shame as it is a fine midsized company that has been around and profitable for a long time.

[Dr.Phool]

94. No shit. I was part owner of a pizza shop earlier this year.

Flour more than quadrupled in price over a couple of months.

Imported tomatoes? Cheese? Forget about it. Add the fuel surcharge to deliveries. My old partner went out of business last month.

[Stellabella]

74. No kidding.

I just spent $31.20 on a turkey breast. I needed it for a photo, but if I hadn't, it would have gone back into the freezer bin. I could not believe that price!

[ozymandius]

12. U.S. Demand for Architects Falls; Billings Index Dips to Record

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Demand for U.S. architectural services, a leading construction indicator, dropped for the ninth month as developers delayed or canceled projects, sending an index tracking architects’ billings to a record low.

The Architecture Billings Index registered 36.2 in October, down from 41.4 the month before and the lowest reading since the survey began in 1995, the Washington-based American Institute of Architects said today in a statement. Any score below 50 indicates billings dropped from the previous month. The index last had a score above 50 in January.

The decline in architecture billings indicates a decrease in construction spending through most of next year. The index predicts the development of offices, warehouses, apartments and other buildings, with about nine to 12 months between the time architects bill their clients and when developers start spending on construction, the institute said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=auiQ68PHnhFM&refer=us

[TalkingDog]

48. Luckily the Dog household saw this one coming....

And the Spousal Unit moved into a job with the County as a code wonk. Not 100% safe, but more so.

Sadly, there are still people who are developing large properties (albeit slowly), so that when this "little slump" is behind us, they can be on the first wave of sales.....

[Demeter]

69. A Legacy for Their Grabdchildren, Perhaps?

Even my typing sounds sick..,.

[UpInArms]

33. 8:30 reports:

08. U.S. Oct. consumer price index falls 1% vs 0.9% drop seen
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

09. U.S. Oct. core CPI down 0.1% vs rise of 0.1% expected
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

10. U.S. CPI up 3.7% in past year, core CPI up 2.2%
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

16. U.S. Oct. real weekly earnings up 2.9% in past year
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

17. U.S. Oct. CPI energy prices fall record 8.6%
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

18. U.S. Oct. CPI owners equivalent rent up 0.1%
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

19. U.S. Oct. food prices up 0.3%
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

20. U.S. Oct. housing starts, building permits at record lows
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

21. U.S. Oct. housing starts fall 4.5% to 791,000 annual rate
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

22. U.S. Oct. building permits fall 12% to 708,000 annual rate
8:31 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

[Roland99]

36. Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline 1%, Most on Record (Update1)

Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline 1%, Most on Record (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&refer=news&sid=aDyKC4tFWbdk

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of living in the U.S. fell by the most on record as fuel costs plummeted and retailers used discounts for cars and clothing to entice consumers hobbled by job losses and sinking home values.

Consumer prices plunged 1 percent last month, more than forecast and the most since records began in 1947, after being unchanged the prior month, the Labor Department said in Washington. Excluding food and energy, so-called core prices unexpectedly fell for the first time since 1982.

A recession that may become the worst in decades raises the risk that deflation, or a prolonged decline in prices, will be another hazard facing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and President-elect Barack Obama. Target Corp. is among retailers cutting prices in an effort to lure away cash-strapped holiday shoppers from Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

...

A separate government report today showed housing starts fell 4.5 percent in October to an annual rate of 791,000, the lowest level since the Commerce Department began keeping the data in 1959.

[Roland99]

37. Housing starts fall to record-low level in October

Housing starts fall to record-low level in October
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Housing-starts-fall-record-low/story.aspx?guid=%7BE01C34FA%2D41A3%2D4097%2D9B7A%2D242F06B60AF9%7D&dist=hplatest

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. home builders reduced their starts of new homes by 4.5% in October, driving new construction to the lowest level since just after World War II, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.

Housing starts dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 791,000 in October, the slowest pace since similar records were first kept during the housing boom in the late 1940s.

Housing starts have now fallen 38% in the past year and are down about 70% from the peak in early 2006.

Building permits, which are typically less volatile than the starts data, fell 12% to a record-low seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708,000 in October, down 40% in the past year.

[UpInArms]

105. Fed minutes: may need more rate cuts if growth ebbs

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AI6QM20081119

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials slashed economic growth forecasts through 2009 and some believed even deeper interest rate cuts may be needed if growth slows further, minutes of their October policy meeting show.

"Even after today's 50 basis-point action, the committee judged that downside risks to growth would remain," the Fed, the U.S. central bank, said in minutes released on Wednesday.

"Members anticipated that economic data over the upcoming intermeeting period would show significant weakness in economic activity, and some suggested that additional policy easing could well be appropriate at future meetings," the minutes of the October 28-29 meeting said.

U.S. stocks added to losses, and Treasury debt prices rallied as the minutes hammered home the gloomy outlook for economic growth and sent investors running for safety. The dollar fell against the yen.

The Fed lowered its forecast range for 2008 gross domestic product growth to between zero and 0.3 percent from its June projection of 1.0 to 1.6 percent. The economy could shrink by 0.2 percent in 2009, according to the lower range of the Fed's central tendencies forecast.

The Fed cut rates to 1 percent from 1.5 percent at its scheduled October meeting, after a surprise half-point cut October 8 in coordination with major central banks around the world in an effort to stabilize financial markets. It has taken the benchmark federal funds rate down 3.25 percentage points in six steps since the beginning of the year.

With expectations of growth ebbing, officials at the U.S. central bank pushed their unemployment projections sharply higher to between 6.3 and 6.5 percent for 2008 and between 7.1 and 7.6 percent next year.

Some on the Fed think the economy could shrink by 1 percent in 2009 and that unemployment could go as high as 8 percent, the highest since 1984. The jobless rate reached 6.5 percent in October.

...more...

I'm waiting until they pay me to take out a loan :eyes:

[ozymandius]

3. Oil steady near 22-month low in Asia

SINGAPORE – Oil prices were steady near 22-month lows Wednesday in Asia as investors paused to examine the extent of global economic weakness, which has sent crude down more than 60 percent in four months.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was up 8 cents to $54.47 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract Tuesday fell 56 cents to settle at $54.39, the lowest since January 2007.

.....

Investors will be watching for signs of slowing U.S. demand in the weekly oil inventories report to be released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration.

The report is expected to show that oil stocks rose 1.2 million barrels last week, according to the average of estimates in a survey of analysts by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Platts survey also projects that gasoline inventories rose 700,000 million barrels and distillates increased 900,000 barrels last week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

25. Oil groups expect $40 barrel – CNOOC head By Alan Beattie in Barcelona

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a7aae3a0-b5ad-11dd-ab71-0000779fd18c.html


The world’s national oil companies expect oil prices to fall further and will cancel most planned investment projects even at current levels, according to the head of a Chinese state-owned group.

A recent meeting of the national oil companies in Beijing had predicted oil prices would fall to about $40 a barrel, Fu Chengyu, chief executive of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, told a conference in Barcelona. “The consensus at the time was that everybody realised the oil price would be even lower,” Mr Fu told the Global China Business meeting. “Nobody knew where it would be but most of them said around $40.”

Mr Fu said that about 27 companies from 23 countries attended the meeting in Beijing, which he said was on October 17 or 18, though he declined to name those present. He described the tone of the meeting as one of “panic” at falling prices.

Executives thought that the oil price would soon rebound to about $50-$55, he said, but even at those levels, investment in new production would be cut back heavily.

“If the oil price remained around $50 or $55, that would mean cutting at least 60 per cent of budgeted projects for the next one or two years from the national oil companies,” Mr Fu said.

Of the new extraction projects planned by state-owned oil companies in deep-sea areas, the lowest break-even oil price was about $60 a barrel and the highest about $90 per barrel, he said.

“When most of the oil companies budgeted their projects, they were using $70, $80, even $100 a barrel for their cash flow calculations,” he said. “For those projects that have started, certainly they will try to complete them, but for those projects that have not started yet they will delay or cancel. Simply, they don’t have enough cash to do all of those that they budgeted.”

Mr Fu also said that any cut in production by Opec, the cartel of oil exporting countries, was regarded as likely to be ineffectual. “Most of the consensus said that if Opec cut production, it might not be as effective as they thought,” said Mr Fu.

Even when Opec had previously announced an output reduction of 1.5m barrels a day, the global oil price still went down, Mr Fu added.

[Ghost Dog]

72. Production needs to go way down anyway. n/t

[ozymandius]

4. Lawmakers, Treasury lock horns on foreclosures

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and members of Congress clashed on Tuesday over the best use for the $700-billion financial bailout fund, with lawmakers demanding money to stem a national wave of mortgage foreclosures.

At a House of Representatives Financial Services Committee hearing where he was grilled over his handling of the program, Paulson said the bailout plan wasn't "a panacea for all our economic difficulties" and would be more effectively used by investing in financial companies to shore up the system.

.....

Under stiff questioning from lawmakers who charged Treasury was making up strategy as it went along, Paulson conceded he hadn't totally ruled out using bailout funds to help homeowners, but said he had "reservations" about a proposal put forward by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Rep. Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who chairs the panel, lectured Paulson, telling him mortgage relief was spelled out as an option under the bailout passed by Congress.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081118/bs_nm/us_financial_usa

[ozymandius]

5. Senators wary of giving automakers aid

WASHINGTON — For the first time in their century of existence, Detroit's automakers and their union joined together to plead to Congress for help to survive an economic crisis. Congress made a request in return: Prove you're worth the $25-billion risk.

.....

The chiefs of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., Chrysler LLC and the UAW mounted their most public appeal for aid since the industry plunged into crisis just over a month ago. They emphasized the cuts they've made, plans for future models and the sacrifices great and small designed to keep their doors open.

.....

All four executives warned of grave damage to theU.S. economy and one another should one of Detroit's titans tumble into bankruptcy, saying a court reorganization would shatter consumer confidence and cost the government more than $25 billion in lost taxes while triggering a domino effect throughout the auto industry.

.....

In making their case, the companies had to answer questions they had avoided so far. From the $25 billion in government loans, Wagoner said GM was expecting to ask for $10 billion to $12 billion. Ford Chief Executive Alan Mulally and Nardelli said Ford and Chrysler would seek $7 billion each. The amounts are based on the company's market shares.

http://www.freep.com/article/20081118/BUSINESS01/81118091/?imw=Y

[tclambert]

18. They can't afford a $10 billion loan to save GM from bankruptcy

and save truly massive job losses, but can find $700 billion for financial companies, like the one Paulson used to work for? And how many 100s of billions for Iraq? Is is $600 billion now? And the car companies are asking for a loan, not a giveaway.

GM and Chrysler are now saying they may not be able to hang on 'til January 20th, when the smart guy takes over.

Every time I think people can't get any stupider, something comes up to prove me wrong.

[DemReadingDU]

43. They can, but don't want to

Perhaps it's because the auto industry is associated with unions, and letting the auto industry die, is in effect, letting unions die.

Perhaps it's because many people can't afford buying a new car because they are unemployed?

Then re-tool the auto industry to make something besides cars to put people to work. This country needs all kinds of manufacturing that has been outsourced - clothes, shoes, sheets & towels, small appliances, bicycles, motorcycles.

And while they are re-tooling the auto industry, maybe it should be mandated that all CEOs make just $2million? and get rid of bonuses.

As Obama has said in his victory speech:
"This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were.
It can't happen without you, without a new spirit of service, a new spirit of sacrifice.
So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism, of responsibility, where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves but each other."
full speech...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/obama.transcript/index.html

[Dr.Phool]

56. All the republicans and their Limbaugh drones like to complain about overpaid auto workers.

There is probably no other union more responsible for the higher standard of living we used to enjoy in this country.

They like to repeat the meme that good ole Nazi sympathizer Henry Ford, through his benevolence paid his workers enough to buy his cars. They forget that his benevolence was forced by striking union workers who braved murder and mayhem to get those contracts, and those wages.

The UAW, and other unions were responsible for lifting the wages of every worker in this country.

I've driven through the Southeast 4 times in the last couple of weeks. I've seen dozens of closed down textile mills, moved overseas to satisfy the greed of benevolent Boss Hog's and the Walton Family. Not to mention the closed Ford and GM dealerships.

We are at a crossroads in this country right now. These clowns in Washington had better get off their soap boxes and do the right thing right now, if it's not too late right now. We have to re-invest in all kinds of manufacturing in this country to survive. And we've got to do it smart and fast.

Obama is playing things really close to the vest right now, even as the repukes are busy trying to sabotage him, as we speak. I just hope that he gets the right team in place, and can hit the ground running on Jan.20th.

Otherwise the torches and pitchforks aren't that far behind.

[happyslug]

63. Some corrections, Ford paid his workers HIGH wages BEFORE the unions

But it was NOT because Henry was being generous or even the later observation that he wanted to pay his workers enough to be able to BUY a car. The reason was more basic, Ford's production lines needed the best workers who were willing to work as lone as the line was moving. No stoppage of the line was allowed. This was very stressful work, and do to the stress Ford had one of the highest turnover rates in employees BEFORE he increased their wages. It was this high turnover Ford was trying to defeat with his high wages NOT the unions. A secondary affect as the better workers would then prefer working with Ford at the higher pay then elsewhere. This re-enforced what Ford wanted, a much lower turnover and thus less training costs.

After Ford did the above, he then instated some of the same rules that had been in effect for decades with the Coal and Steel Industries (i.e. Company Police, Company spies, Yellow dog contracts,i.e. contract that forbade the worker from joining a union, blackballing workers who wanted a union, and firing any worker who even THOUGHT of a union so to have a say in how the worker was used by Ford).

The Coal and Steel Industry wanted the same thing Ford wanted, the lowest labor costs. To get that low cost, all three industries were willing to pay more then the "average" employer for they wanted the most productive workers. The problem was the most productive workers wanted a say in how they were used (i.e. most likely to join a Union) thus the various Anti-union actions by all three, Company Spies, Company Police, Blackball lists, etc (including acts of Violence up to and including Murder, through much more common in the Coal industry then Steel and in Steel much more common then in Automotive industry). Remember I am talking about Henry Ford's time i.e. 1906-1938.

In the late 1930s the UAW made a commitment to unionized the Auto Industry, Ford fought them the longest and the hardest. Ford wanted to CONTROL his workers and the Union was a way for the workers to tell him NO. Thus Ford fought the union toe to toe for years, finally he agreed to recognize the Union only when his wife of 50 years threatened to leave him over the problems the fight was causing Henry and the Company. Henry did NOT want to give in, he wanted to control even if that meant his Company would fold (and almost did, WWII saved Ford, without the Government demand for his products Ford Motor Company may have had to close down in the 1940s). That is how much Henry opposed the Unions, but did work with them till his grandson Henry Ford II took over the company in 1945 (Through much of this seems to be do to the act of Edsel Ford, Henry Ford's son and father of Henry Ford II, but Edsel died in 1943 of Cancer while Henry Ford II was serving in the Navy).


For more on Henry Ford see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Ford

Edsel Ford:"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edsel_Ford

Henry Ford II:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Ford_II

[DemReadingDU]

65. The unions have been giving up and giving up, for years

There isn't any more for them to give. But hey, what about those CEOs earning multi-million salaries plus bonus! Do ya think they could give up a few million? or donate to creating jobs for the future thousands of unemployed?

In a few years, this country is gonna regret the loss of unions. So many people today have no clue the blood, sweat & tears the unions who built our country.

Obama's smart, just hope he and his team aren't undone by the upcoming global economic disasters.


oops, spelling

[ozymandius]

6. Future Shape of Fannie, Freddie Stirs Debate as Losses Mount

Fannie and Freddie "are teetering on the brink" as losses increase and borrowing costs rise, Jerry Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Home Builders, said in an interview. He called for the government to explicitly guarantee their debt and for Congress to quickly come up with a new structure and better-defined role for Fannie and Freddie.

Some banks, which have long had an uneasy relationship with Fannie and Freddie, would like to see them disappear, at least in their current form. One idea being discussed among bankers is to replace Fannie and Freddie with several lender-owned cooperatives that would package loans into securities. Under this idea, the U.S. Treasury would get fees for backing up those securities if losses reached catastrophic levels.

In prepared remarks for a speech in Detroit on Tuesday, Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis called for scrapping the business model of Fannie and Freddie. He said the U.S. should "move in the direction of a system that relies more on private-sector institutions," without government guarantees, to channel money from investors to home-mortgage lenders.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122703962799938321.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[ozymandius]

7. FDIC to open temporary office in Irvine

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has leased 200,000 square feet of space in Irvine for a temporary office that will manage receiverships and liquidate assets from failed financial institutions in the western United States.

.....

In choosing Irvine, the agency is benefiting from Orange County's depressed office market, which has been hurt by the collapse in recent years of New Century Financial Corp., Ameriquest Mortgage Co. and other financial companies.

The office vacancy rate in Orange County soared to 17.4% in the third quarter from 12.1% a year earlier, while rents fell 4.4%, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fdic19-2008nov19,0,2337262.story

[Demeter]

15. There's Irony For You!

FDIC as vulture....a growth opportunity!

[ozymandius]

8. Unsold Goods Piling Up at Long Beach

From Naked Capitalism

It's always a bit dangerous to generalize from one data point, even if if it is a big data point, like Long Beach, one of America's most active commercial ports. Nevertheless, the New York Times uses it to present a vivid image of the economic, and in particular, trade slowdown.

One focus is how imported cars are being warehoused there, indicating that even more competitive automakers have more pain to come. I dimly recall that when Daimler bought Chrysler (admittedly billed as a merger of equals that turned out otherwise) one of the reasons Chrysler decided to give up its independence was that the auto industry, globally, had production capacity vastly in excess of any reasonable demand scenario. And as has been visible for quite some time in the US, automakers have responded by using cheap financing as a means to get consumers to turn their cars in much faster than they ever did historically (when I was a kid, you bought a car and expected to keep it for, say, 6-10 years, depending on how heavily you drove it).

From the New York Times:

Gleaming new Mercedes cars roll one by one out of a huge container ship here and onto a pier. Ordinarily the cars would be loaded on trucks within hours, destined for dealerships around the country. But these are not ordinary times.

For now, the port itself is the destination. Unwelcome by dealers and buyers, thousands of cars worth tens of millions of dollars are being warehoused on increasingly crowded port property....

While shipments for some items have slowed, the cars have kept coming in at their regular pace partly because the auto factories can take months to adjust to changes in demand.

And for the first time, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Nissan have each asked to lease space from the port for these orphan vehicles. They are turning dozens of acres of the nation’s second-largest container port into a parking lot...

But the inventory glut in Long Beach is not limited to imported cars. There has also been a sharp drop in demand for the port’s single largest export: recycled cardboard and paper products.

This material typically goes to China, where it is used to make boxes for new electronics and other products that are sent back to the United States.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

49. Well-focused snapshot. n/t

[ozymandius]

9. Stocks in Europe, Asia Decline, Led by Banks; U.S. Futures Drop

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks fell in Europe and Asia, led by financial firms and commodity producers, on concern the economic slowdown will cut profits. U.S. futures dropped before a report that may show consumer prices slid the most since 1949, heightening the risk of deflation.

UBS AG slumped 4.1 percent after Morgan Stanley slashed its estimate for the Swiss bank's earnings by 23 percent, citing the possibility of more writedowns. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Japan's third-largest bank, tumbled 7.9 percent on plans to raise capital. Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-biggest mining company, followed metal prices lower, slipping 3.8 percent.

.....

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index declined 1 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 0.9 percent.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures lost 1.1 percent. General Motors Corp. fell in German trading after Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner said the carmaker needs federal aid to keep jobs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=worldwide&sid=amHt7HHA4bSo

[ozymandius]

10. Bernanke's Cash Injections Risk Eclipse of Fed's Benchmark Rate

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve's efforts to rescue the U.S. from financial collapse risks the eclipse of the central bank's benchmark interest rate as the most important signal of monetary policy.

Record injections of liquidity have driven the overnight lending rate between banks to less than half the 1 percent target set by officials last month. The gap is shifting investors' focus toward the amount of money in the banking system as a better gauge of Fed intentions, something San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen last month called ``a kind of quantitative easing.''

.....

Some analysts point to the surplus cash that banks keep on deposit at the Fed as a key gauge of the Fed's monetary-policy stance. The so-called excess reserves have ballooned to $363.6 billion from $2 billion in August as the Fed added to its emergency lending programs.

.....

The effective federal funds rate was 0.37 percent Nov. 17, and has averaged 0.29 percent since the Federal Open Market Committee cut the rate to 1 percent on Oct. 29.

The sustained gap means the futures market for the federal funds rate is less predictive of the next policy move. Traders must now bet on how much the Fed will miss its target and where policy makers intend the rate to be in the future.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=worldwide&sid=abYTR9BqGlBo

[Festivito]

13. Debt: 11/17/2008 10,618,466,094,057.00 (UP 659,509,421.80) (Little change.)

(Little has changed in a couple of weeks. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,359,522,811,655.01 + 4,258,943,282,402.05
DOWN 1,168,758,314.18 + UP 1,828,267,735.97
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 13,536,171,193.09.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,475,319,835.16.
The average for the last 31 days would be 9,169,664,356.61.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 32 reports in 48 days of FY2009 averaging 18.55B$ per report, 12.37B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 64 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/17/2008 10,618,466,094,057.00 GWB (UP 4,890,270,297,875.43 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 593,741,197,144.60 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/27/2008 -000,114,166,180.08 --- Mon
10/28/2008 -000,028,404,616.62 ----
10/29/2008 +000,066,775,718.47 ------------*******
10/30/2008 +008,339,266,330.60 ------------*********
10/31/2008 +045,215,290,348.09 ------------**********
11/03/2008 -000,572,269,490.77 --- Mon
11/04/2008 +000,314,469,904.16 ------------********
11/05/2008 -000,077,530,396.02 ----
11/06/2008 +056,540,493,221.63 ------------**********
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 ---
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 --- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon

110,207,825,656.50 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $953,834,290,797.93 in last 60 days.
That's 954B$ in 60 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 94% of that highest year ever only in 60 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 60 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3606744&mesg_id=3606764

[Roland99]

28. To put that "little change" in perspective....

That's about Ford's entire stake in Mazda, eh?

[Festivito]

35. And the national debt is 16,100 times bigger than that.

This "little" amount, noting I, myself, called it little:

$2.18 for a workday per American.

$566 projected for a year per American.

$2,264 projected for a year for an American family of four.

And that's a slow day. A slow day I feel compelled to call a little change.

Sigh!

[DemReadingDU]

39. 954B$ in 60 days, we're on course for $1T by Thanksgiving

shocking

[Festivito]

58. And that could happen all in one day.

I sense they are slowing down. Almost as though they don't want to exceed some historical amount.

Bush could reach the 5T$ presidency level with only another 110B$.

Even if Obama is outstandingly frugal, the debt will rise to awful levels. It took Bill seven years to bring borrowing down to zero, and in that time he borrowed 1.5T$ starting from 280B$ a year he inherited from that first son of Bush. Obama will be inheriting 555-595B$ yearly deficits to bring down to zero, not including the extra T$ band-aid and the untold trillions that might still be out there ready to drive our country into oblivion.

That's shocking.

[Festivito]

115. Debt: 11/18/2008 10,660,417,854,472.20 (UP 41,951,760,415.20) (Large day.)

(Coming close to milestones. I found that I made two mistakes: Heavy borrowing start is a call I made to start 9/18, labeled it as 10/18--oops--calculated and still calculate it as day AFTER 9/18. This misses 17+7+5 B$ one could add to the heavy borrowing total that I do not.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,394,550,218,145.18 + 4,265,867,636,327.11
UP 35,027,406,490.17 + UP 6,924,353,925.06
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 14,827,788,885.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 10,873,711,849.00.
The average for the last 32 days would be 10,194,104,858.44.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 33 reports in 49 days of FY2009 averaging 19.26B$ per report, 12.97B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 63 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/18/2008 10,660,417,854,472.20 GWB (UP 4,932,222,058,290.63 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 635,692,957,559.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/28/2008 -000,028,404,616.62 ----
10/29/2008 +000,066,775,718.47 ------------*******
10/30/2008 +008,339,266,330.60 ------------*********
10/31/2008 +045,215,290,348.09 ------------**********
11/03/2008 -000,572,269,490.77 --- Mon
11/04/2008 +000,314,469,904.16 ------------********
11/05/2008 -000,077,530,396.02 ----
11/06/2008 +056,540,493,221.63 ------------**********
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 ---
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 --- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon
11/18/2008 +035,027,406,490.17 ------------**********

145,349,398,326.75 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $995,786,051,213.13 in last 61 days.
That's 996B$ in 61 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 98% of that highest year ever only in 61 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 61 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3608628&mesg_id=3608660

[tclambert]

14. Saw a picture of a rapper on the cover of a magazine

He had a full set of gold teeth, at least 6 gold chains, a diamond encrusted watch, huge rings and bracelets. And I thought to myself we used to laugh at rappers wasting money on outrageous jewelry. Today there are probably a lot of people who invested in stocks and real estate who wished they had invested in bling-bling instead. Who would have guessed rappers were the smart money managers?

[Demeter]

16. I'm SureThey Overpaid

Retail prices on bling are grossly inflated.

[tclambert]

19. So you're against Ludacris for new Treasury Secretary?

[Demeter]

20. Adamantly Opposed

[Zynx]

21. Gold hasn't held up very well the last ten months. Silver is even worse.

Silver has been almost as bad as stocks.

[Roland99]

22. Sounds like Flava Flav, yo

:)

[Demeter]

17. Good Morning Ozy and All!

You might be seeing a lot of posts from me today if I don't spend the day sleeping. I have succumbed to a galloping crud, and am in no fit state to go out and do anything except try to score some pseudoephedrin...or maybe an antibiotic, if I can stand the pain of below zero temperatures and an office visit.

This is the usual result when everybody coughs and sneezes and breathes on me, the weather makes massive and abrupt changes, and stress levels peak and resolve. Nothing life threatening, I hope. That's why I used to only do newspaper delivery--less contagion! Now tat gasoline is $1.86, I could go back to it, if the routes weren't 50 miles a day, instead of the 12 I used to do....

[Ghost Dog]

50. Fix yourself a hot toddy, Demeter.

(Irish) Whiskey in hot water with honey, lemon and cloves.

[TalkingDog]

55. ugh....brings back childhood memories

Mom skipped the cloves,lemon and honey and went for straight whiskey in a slurry of table sugar, by the tablespoonful.

If it came back up, she simply repeated the process.

To this day, I can't abide colored liquors. Tequila, vodka, moonshine A-OK.


That said, it does help.

[Dr.Phool]

57. I remember that.

And for lazy mothers, they made that rotgut "Rock and Rye". Pre-mixed poison.

[DemReadingDU]

67. mom bought Teek cough syrup, it contained codeine

maybe it was Teak(?), bought right off the shelf. Good stuff!

[Ghost Dog]

70. As with all medicines: use properly and with care. n/t

[ozymandius]

108. I'm sorry you're feeling poorly Demeter.

It looks like you received some good advice from our friends here. You rest easily.

[Roland99]

23. US Futures down as Asia stocks drop for 3rd straight day

DJIA INDEX 8,405.00 -89.00
S&P 500 857.40 -9.10
NASDAQ 100 1,159.00 -15.00

Although US futures seem to have absolutely no meaning anymore.

[Roland99]

31. Futures double down.

DJIA INDEX 8,338.00 -156.00
S&P 500 849.90 -16.60
NASDAQ 100 1,151.50 -22.50

[Demeter]

24. UK inflation falls for first time in 15 months By Norma Cohen

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fcbf4122-b555-11dd-ab71-0000779fd18c.html



Consumer prices tumbled in October, justifying the Bank of England’s 1.5 percentage point interest rate cut this month and opening the door to further reductions in the costs of borrowing.

The official measure of consumer prices last month dropped 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to a lower than expected annual rate of 4.5 per cent, down from 5.2 per cent in September. The fall in inflation was the first in 15 months and the largest one-month drop since the Consumer Price Index began in 1997.

While prices are still rising faster than the Bank’s 2 per cent medium-term target, the fall suggests inflation has peaked. Analysts now say Bank interest rates could fall below 2 per cent, a level not seen since the institution was created in 1694.


Inflation “finally turned the corner” in October, said Richard McGuire, fixed interest strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “With the risk of outright deflation therefore on the rise, we continue to see further imminent aggressive rate reductions on the part of the BoE,” he added, predicting that base rates would fall to 1 per cent by the end of the first quarter of 2009.

The Retail Price Index, a measure that takes account of housing costs and which forms the basis for a range of pay and benefit increases, fell by 0.8 percentage points to an annual rate of 4.2 per cent in October. The RPI is now forecast to fall below zero next year as mortgage rates fall.

The single biggest contributor to the sharper than expected drop in prices was cheaper oil, with fuels and lubricants falling by 6.2 per cent in October. The average price of petrol fell 7.1p per litre to 104.5p between September and October. In the same period last year it rose by 2.7p. Diesel prices also fell, recording an average 7p per litre drop over the month. Substantial downward pressure on inflation was also supplied by a drop in air transport costs, with the price of European flights sharply down.


THAT'S FUNNY! IN THE US,GAS IS DOWN, BUT EVERYTHING ELSE SEEMS TO HAVE JUMPED, ESPECIALLY FOOD

[Demeter]

26. Citigroup liquidates fund that fell 53% in a month

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2030a7bc-b5c5-11dd-ab71-0000779fd18c.html

Citigroup is liquidating its Corporate Special Opportunities hedge fund after it lost 53 per cent of its value last month, marking the ninth time in recent months that the bank has had to close or rescue a fund in its alternative investment unit.

The collapse represents the latest setback for Citi’s chief executive, Vikram Pandit, a former head of the alternative investment unit, who revealed plans on Monday to cut the bank’s headcount by 52,000. Citi shares fell 6 per cent on Tuesday to $8.36, giving it a market value of $45.5bn.

CSO, which managed almost $4.2bn at its peak, has a net asset value of about $58m and debt of about $880m, investors say. People familiar with the matter say investors in the fund are likely to receive no more than 10 cents on the dollar.

The fund faltered even though Citi supplied it with $450m in credit lines and equity infusions of about $320m. It also bought assets with a notional value of $1bn that it placed in the fund.

Investors in the fund – which invested mainly in debt backing European private equity deals – have not been allowed to withdraw their money for about a year as performance deteriorated. Losses for Citi could total hundreds of millions of dollars, people familiar with the matter said.

[Demeter]

29. GE moves to cut up to $2bn in costs at finance arm

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1dd6f46e-b5cd-11dd-ab71-0000779fd18c.html


General Electric is to shrink GE Capital, its finance arm, in a move that could lead to $2bn in cost cuts, the sale of $90bn in highly leveraged assets and thousands of redundancies among its 75,000 employees.

Under plans announced on Tuesday, GE Capital will create a separate US banking unit charged with gathering retail deposits mainly via the internet. GE has more than doubled its deposits from $20bn to $43bn this year in an effort to reduce its funding costs and lessen its reliance on short-term debt. The shake-up at GE Capital, which takes effect next year, comes after the division has been hit by credit-related writedowns and its exposure to the ailing US consumer.

Its performance has dragged down group earnings and caused GE to miss analysts’ forecasts in the first quarter and reduce its own guidance in the third quarter.

In spite of the setbacks, GE ­Capital has fared better than most and is expected to record a profit of about $9bn this year.

However, Jeffrey Immelt, GE’s chief executive, has pledged to cut the finance arm’s contribution to profits from about 50 per cent to 40 per cent....Under the revised structure, GE Capital’s troubled US ­consumer finance businesses, including its private label credit card division, would be separate from the rest of the consumer and corporate finance businesses.

[Hugin]

38. "...its exposure to the ailing US consumer."

Well, where the heck else are they supposed to make money?

Stupidest statement of the week award nominee... "Blame The Victim" category.

[Roland99]

27. BASF doesn't make things...they make things better (with 20,000 fewer employees now)

BASF to cut 20,000 jobs as it warns on profit
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/BASF-cut-20000-jobs-warns/story.aspx?guid=%7B8D4AC58E%2DFB86%2D426D%2D8556%2D07D799A5E31E%7D&dist=hplatest

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- BASF, the world's biggest chemicals company, said it's cutting 20,000 jobs and warned adjusted earnings before interest and tax won't grow this year. It's temporarily shutting down 80 plants worldwide and reducing production at 100 plants. Flexible working time arrangements will be used wherever possible and scheduled maintenance work is being brought forward. Most affected will be the company's main site in Ludwigshafen, Germany, where 5,000 jobs will be lost. End of Story

[Demeter]

30. Land leased to secure crops for South Korea

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98a81b9c-b59f-11dd-ab71-0000779fd18c.html


Daewoo Logistics of South Korea has secured farmland in Madagascar to grow food crops for Seoul, in a deal that diplomats and consultants said was the largest of its kind.

The company said it had leased 1.3m hectares of farmland – about half the size of Belgium – from Madagascar’s government for 99 years. It plans to ship the maize and palm oil harvests back to South Korea. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. The pursuit of foreign farm investments is a clear sign of how countries are seeking food security following this year’s crisis – which saw record prices for commodities such as wheat and rice and food riots in countries from Egypt to Haiti.

Prices for agricultural commodities have tumbled by about half from such levels but countries remain concerned about long-term supplies.

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation warned this year that the race by some countries to secure farmland overseas risked creating a “neo-colonial” system. Those fears could be increased by the fact that Daewoo’s farm in Madagascar represents about half the African country’s arable land, according to estimates by the US government....South Korea, a heavily populated but resource-poor nation, is the fourth-largest importer of maize and among the 10 largest buyers of soyabeans....

Al-Qudra Holding, an investment company based in Abu Dhabi, said in August it planned to buy 400,000 hectares of arable land in countries in Africa and Asia by the end of the first quarter of 2009.

Meles Zenawi, prime minister of Ethiopia, said this year its government was “very eager” to provide hundreds of thousands of hectares of agricultural land to Middle Eastern countries for investment.

[Ghost Dog]

52. Amazing move and more than a harbinger... n/t

[UpInArms]

32. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 87.070 Change -0.040 (-0.05%)

US Dollar Trading Ranges Could Break Amidst US, UK, Canadian Event Risk

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Dollar_Trading_Ranges_Could_1226931020166.html

On November 14, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that “monetary policy actions have not resolved the ongoing strains in financial markets, including interbank funding markets…Central bankers and other policymakers around the world must continue to work together to address disruptions in credit markets and to promote a vibrant global economy.” Mr. Bernanke’s comments suggest that the market’s expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates further may be correct, with Credit Suisse overnight index swaps fully pricing in a 50bp reduction on December 16. News on November 19 may shake up these forecasts, as US CPI and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from October 29 will both hit the wires. At 8:30 ET, CPI is anticipated to plunge 0.8 percent during the month of October, which would mark the sharpest drop since 1949, while the annual measure is projected to slip to a 5-month low of 4.1 percent. However, the FOMC meeting minutes at 14:00 ET could draw more attention, especially if they highlight the downside risks to growth and declining inflation expectations. Since risk trends have been the primary driver of price action lately, it will likely be best to watch for the stock market’s reaction as pessimistic turn in sentiment could lead equities lower, and thus lead the US dollar higher given their negative correlation.

...more...

Pound Surges Despite BoE Minutes Signaling More Rate Cuts Ahead

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Pound_Surges_Despite_BoE_Minutes_1227092855629.html

The Bank of England unanimously voted to lower their benchmark rate 150 bps at their November 6th meeting due to increasing downside risk to growth and deflation concerns. The pound surprisingly rose in the news after an initial dip as the vote was expected by forex traders. The Sterling has broken back above 1.500 as it continues to trade in a tight range of 1.4900-1.5100. Trendline support continues to hold and may limit losses for the pair in the near-term.

The Pound’s strength is surprising since the MPC revealed in their minutes that they had considered a greater rate cut as near-term demand prospects “deteriorated markedly”. The central bank has become concerned that the downside risk to inflation have accelerated at such a pace that their 2% target is at risk and that action is needed to prevent deflation from taking hold. Again, these fears were spelled out in the central bank’s quarterly inflation report which muted its impact on today’s price action. The BoE refrained from lowering rates more as they wanted to give time for their efforts to measure the impact of the prior actions and to leave themselves more scope to impact markets down the road.

The Euro saw brief weakness during the overnight session dropping over 50 bps after failing to take 1.2650 before recovering most of its losses. The single currency had traded in a tight range throughout most of the Asian session which has been typical price action over the past week. Technically the EUR/USD is forming a wedge which traditionally leads to a breakout, therefore if we see price action drop below 1.2300 we could see significant losses for the pair to follow. Conversely, a move above 1.300 would lead to more bullish momentum. The 20-day SMA has been a strong resistance level and its downward trend has continued to lead to lower daily highs, which is a strong sign that more losses may be ahead. President Trichet in an interview today called the current crisis the worst since World War II. These comments have become common rhetoric for the ECB head and a clear sign that the central bank is foreshadowing its dovish bias, which will most likely result in more easing from the MPC.

The U.S. economic calendar will present significant event risk as the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, October consumer prices and housing starts are due for release. Inflation in the U.S. is expected to have eased considerable to 4.0% from 4.9% on the back of a 60% drop in oil prices from their peak. Traditionally, the reduction in price pressures gives policy makers the scope to cut interest rates. However, inflation concerns haven’t significantly factored into the Fed’’s decision making during the credit crisis as growth concerns have dictated their actions. Therefore, expectations are that the central bank will cut rates by 50 bps as the downside risk to the economy continue to grow, which was underlined by the big three automakers in capital hill asking for $25 billion in assistance. Today we will get a glimpse into the MCPc’s thinking as the minutes from their last meeting where they brought the overnight rate down to 1% will be released. Growing concerns over the economy combined with the troubles of the Detroit carmakers could drive risk aversion which will send the dollar higher if the risk correlation holds as it has over the past few months. Lower consumer prices may also help support the dollar as the increase purchasing power will help ease fears of a consumer spending driven recession. However, an uptick in core price could give the Fed something to think about and lower expectations of another rate cut which could lead to dollar weakness. Also, a weak housing start report could decrease expectations that the U.S. could be the first to emerge from the crisis without a bottom to housing forming which could lead the dollar lower.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

46. Euro surges to sesion peak vs dollar, up 1 pct on day

Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:26am EST NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The euro rose to a session high against the dollar on Wednesday in a move analysts said was related to a large buy order for the single currency.

The euro rose suddenly to a session high of $1.2767 <EUR=> from around $1.2640. It last traded at $1.2751, up 1 percent from late Tuesday.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1932583520081119?rpc=44

:shrug:

Let's see also:

Edit: Not only €uro, then. Some getting out of Dollar$. Or...

[Ghost Dog]

61. Or observe the immediate reversal.

Because 'they're' up to something...

[UpInArms]

40. World recession is here-Merrill fund manager poll

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLJ49427620081119?sp=true

LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Investors believe the global economy is now firmly in recession and that it is not going to come out of it for some time, a poll by Merrill Lynch showed on Wednesday.

As a result, fund managers are embracing defensive assets such as utility stocks, government bonds and cash, the monthly survey for November found.

But it also showed some slight indications of a levelling off of recent bearish trends.

"Last month we saw a very big capitulation trade," said Gary Baker, Merrill's head of EMEA equity strategy. "The results of this (new) survey are a) we are strongly in recession, we are not moving towards it and b) it is here to stay."

The poll showed that 84 percent of fund managers now believe the world is in recession., up from 69 percent on October and 44 percent in September.

At the same time, 67 percent said that the global economy would weaken over the next 12 months. Only 22 percent saw it improving.

The poll was taken between Nov. 7 and 13, a period when global stocks fell around 13 percent, oil plunged by a third and and the world's main commodities index .CRB fell 14 percent.

...more...

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

42. A moment of energy schaedenfreude.

PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Crude Future 53.64 -.75 -1.38 08:53
Dated Brent Spot 49.53 .33 .67 09:24
WTI Cushing Spot 54.15 -.24 -.44 09:07


PETROLEUM (¢/gal)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Heating Oil Future 175.33 -.46 -.26 08:52
Nymex RBOB Gasoline Future 112.10 -1.58 -1.39 08:53


NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Henry Hub Future 6.52 .00 .02 08:52
Henry Hub Spot 6.75 .20 3.05 11/18
New York City Gate Spot 8.19 .50 6.50 11/18

[Zynx]

51. So how do those $200 a barrel predictions we saw by some analysts look now?

[Dr.Phool]

53. Did you notice that all the analysts who predicted $200 oil.....

Were all heavily invested in oil?

[Roland99]

44. 9:38am - Futures were down 2% just before open. DJIA opens UP 0.35%

DJIA 8,453.82 +29.07 +0.35%
Nasdaq 1,485.39 +2.12 +0.14%
S&P 500 861.45 +2.33 +0.27%
Dow Util 368.31 +2.31 +0.63%
Global Dow 1,398.14 -7.89 -0.56%
NYSE 5,361.17 -4.49 -0.08%
AMEX 1,299.12 -7.59 -0.58%
Russell 2000 447.22 -0.29 -0.06%
Gold future 738.50 +5.80 +0.79%
30-Year Bond 4.08% -0.06 -1.54%
10-Year Bond 3.50% -0.04 -1.05%

[Roland99]

45. 9:44am - Now down 0.14% Down/Up/Down... Pass the Dramamine!

[Roland99]

54. 11:19am - Solidly in the red

DJIA 8,323.44 -101.31 -1.20%
Nasdaq 1,460.41 -22.86 -1.54%
S&P 500 842.73 -16.39 -1.91%
Global Dow 1,369.08 -36.95 -2.63%
Dow Util 363.05 -2.95 -0.81%
NYSE 5,217.78 -147.88 -2.76%
AMEX 1,282.24 -24.47 -1.87%
Russell 2000 434.92 -12.61 -2.82%
Gold future 748.50 +15.80 +2.16%
30-Year Bond 4.02% -0.12 -2.92%
10-Year Bond 3.44% -0.10 -2.72%

[Roland99]

59. 11:47am - Doubly solid in the red

DJIA 8,212.73 -212.02 -2.52%
Nasdaq 1,434.08 -49.19 -3.32%
S&P 500 829.86 -29.26 -3.41%
Global Dow 1,356.87 -49.16 -3.50%
Dow Util 360.44 -5.56 -1.52%
NYSE 5,156.82 -208.84 -3.89%
AMEX 1,277.44 -29.27 -2.24%
Russell 2000 428.38 -19.13 -4.27%
Gold future 746.00 +13.30 +1.82%
30-Year Bond 4.00% -0.14 -3.38%
10-Year Bond 3.39% -0.15 -4.10%

[UpInArms]

60. Fed's Kohn behaves like chicken little - see values falling!

08. Fed has already engaged in 'quantitative easing:' Kohn
10:10 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

09. Kohn: Examining extraordinary monetary policy as contingency
10:09 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

10. Kohn: Fed should respond aggressively to deflation
10:07 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

16. Kohn: Risk of deflation is higher than few months ago
10:06 AM ET, Nov 19, 2008

(okay - so values are falling - deflation is real - but this guy really pisses me off)

[UpInArms]

68. more info - (can someone hold my hair?)

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AI5L020081119?sp=true

"Some people have argued that we should save our ammunition, that interest rate cuts aren't effective," he said. "I think that were we to see this possibility, that we should be very aggressive with our monetary policy, as aggressive as we can be."

The Fed has already cut interest rates by 4.25 percentage points to 1 percent in 2008 to combat the credit crisis and support the faltering economy.

Kohn said the U.S. central bank should consider forms of "quantitative easing," the effective lowering of interest rates by flooding markets with funds.

"We have already engaged in forms of quantitative easing and we should be looking carefully at the effects that they might have, what other forms of quantitative easing might happen as a contingency plan, should that still remote possibility -- but I think less remote than it was -- occur."

Kohn told the conference shakiness in the economy and in the financial system is likely to continue for an extended period and that regulation, not rate rises, was the most effective prevention against a repeat of the rapid expansion and painful collapse of the housing market.

"Although the outlook remains extremely uncertain, both the fragility of the financial system and the weakness in real activity seem likely to persist for a while," Kohn said.

[Roland99]

75. Weaken the dollar, increase inflation to stave off deflation?

my brain hurts.

[Ghost Dog]

62. FTSE closed down 4.8% on financials, oils, metals, macro-factors (says I)

FTSE skids nearly 5 pct lower as oils, Wall St slide
By Rebekah Curtis

LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE skidded 4.8 percent lower on Wednesday, with banks and oil shares tumbling and as Wall Street took a whipping from a grim outlook for the global autos industry. The FTSE 100 closed down 202.87 points at 4,005.68. The index has lost 38 percent so far this year as a global banking crisis has driven the global economy onto the brink of recession.

Shares in energy companies were the day's standout losers, with BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and BG Group (BG.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) dropping between 3.7 and 5.9 percent as crude oil fell about 1 percent.

A battered banks sector was further depressed by J.P Morgan Securities slashing its earnings estimates on the UK banking sector and taking the axe to share-price targets. HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) dropped 9.1 percent, with WestLB also cutting its rating to "sell" from "reduce", while Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) lost 13.3 percent. HBOS shares were up 2.1 percent, however, on hopes that Wednesday's meeting of Lloyds TSB LLOYL> shareholders will secure government funding and OK the takeover of HBOS (HBOS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz). Lloyds TSB shares fell 9.7 percent.

On the economic front, minutes from the Bank of England's November rate-setting meeting raised expectations of further big cuts, showing the bank considered slashing borrowing costs by more than 200 basis points this month, before settling for a 150-basis points cut.

"Everybody's focusing on the fact that the rate cut potentially could have been an awful lot bigger than it subsequently turned to out to be," said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank. "It gives the sense that the bank is not quite on top of things," he added. "You'd have thought there'd have been a lot more progressive moves towards preparing the markets and indeed preparing the committee itself for this sudden change."

...

Insurer Legal & General (LGEN.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 9.5 percent as Deutsche Bank cut its target price.

Miners also weighed down on the FTSE 100, as copper dropped 3 percent and aluminium hit a three-year low on a poor global auto industry outlook. Kazakhmys (KAZ.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Vedanta (VED.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Xstrata (XTA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) slid between 11.8 and 17.9 percent. But Experian (EXPN.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) jumped 7.4 after the credit information provider posted an 8 percent rise in first-half earnings and said revenue growth rates should hold up in the third quarter.

...

Meanwhile, British factory orders fell sharply in November and manufacturers gave their gloomiest projections about future output in nearly 30 years, according to a monthly survey from the Confederation of British Industry.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALJ42619120081119?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

64. Banks, commodities send Europe shares 4 pct lower

LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - European stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, dragged down by banks and commodity shares that slipped on persistent worries that a global economic downturn would lower demand for crude oil and metals. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed provisionally closed 4 percent lower at 811.70 points. It has fallen about 45 percent this year, compared with gains in the previous five years.

Banks were the worst hit on Wednesday, with BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shedding 12 percent, HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) falling 8 percent, Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) down 13.5 percent and Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) declining 8.2 percent.

"The outlook is still very poor and the profit warning from BASF didn't help sentiment," said Edmund Shing, strategist at BNP Paribas in Paris.

BASF (BASF.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's top chemicals maker by revenue, cut its 2008 profit outlook for the second time in two months and said it would cut back production, citing a "massive" decline in demand in key industries. BASF shares were down 14.7 percent.

Across Europe, the FTSE 100 .FTSE index was down 5 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI was 5.2 percent lower and France's CAC 40 .FCHI was down 4.1 percent.

...

"Everyone is staying very defensively positioned and no one is seeing any reason to become more aggressively positioned in risky assets like equities," said Shing. (Reporting by Atul Prakash)

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALJ55568920081119?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

66. Notice that, now that City of London traders (mostly, I suspect) have sloped off

to drown their sorrows or themselves and their wives and kids, Wall Street will start to perform its magical early-afternoon rebound...

Hmmm.

ed. to add the 'early-'.

[specimenfred1984]

71. The business culture of lying-to-achieve is DEAD

I used to joke around and call it "put on a suit and lie" but it's pretty much the truth, almost the entire world has been lying for personal gain for a few decades. Herein lies the real, horrible, deeply rooted problem: we live in a culture that thinks it's OK to lie as long as you don't get caught. It's going to take a long time, possibly a generation to weed out the fuckers who believe that.

The reasons for it are simple, decades of gov't and corporate propaganda combined with greed have created a disaster capitalist culture of corruption but reversing it will not be so easy. Studies show that a person needs to hear an opposing viewpoint a minimum of 5 times before they will even entertain the idea as having any validity if, that person heard the original information from a trusted source of information.

Our country is in much deeper shit than most people are even capable of understanding.

[Joe Chi Minh]

111. As Tleb says, "Never trust someone wearing a tie!"

[Roland99]

73. 2:39pm - Fed sees year-long recession (oh, only a year? Whew...that was a close one)

DJIA 8,167.72 -257.03 -3.05%
Nasdaq 1,419.42 -63.85 -4.30%
S&P 500 823.19 -35.93 -4.18%
Dow Util 356.81 -9.19 -2.51%
NYSE 5,111.12 -254.54 -4.74%
AMEX 1,261.27 -45.44 -3.48%
Russell 2000 424.37 -23.14 -5.17%
Global Dow 1,351.67 -54.36 -3.87%
Gold future 736.00 +3.30 +0.45%
30-Year Bond 3.97% -0.17 -4.20%
10-Year Bond 3.38% -0.16 -4.47%


Small caps taking a beating.

[TheWatcher]

76. Maybe they think it will only take a year of them directly buying Index Futures

Everyday between 3-4PM to turn things around and reflate the Bubble.

Other than that it sounds like more of the same BS Propaganda they always feed the public.

[Roland99]

78. They're asleep at the wheel today. 3:19pm and DJIA is hitting session lows.

[Roland99]

79. And forging new lows. DJIA -304

[Roland99]

80. Keep on digging. DJIA under 8,100. S&P down 5%. Russell2K down 6%

[Roland99]

81. Yikes...DJIA almost under 8,000! Free falling

[TheWatcher]

99. WOW. The PPT must have passed out at an AIG Mixer.

[Demeter]

103. Federal Reserve Shows Continuing Signs of Delusion and Wishful Thinking

I thought it was the Potomac, not deNile that ran through Washington DC.

[sarcasmo]

82. It just his 8015 and inched back up a notch, 7000 here we come.

[Roland99]

84. 8,002. Can they keep it up in the 8000s?

7,992...maybe not.

[Roland99]

85. S&P almost under 800! DJIA at 7,989.

[Roland99]

86. And there's the bell. DJIA at 7,996. Let's see where we settle.

Whew...this turned ug-lee in the last hour.

[sarcasmo]

87. 7996.80 and Paulson going to talk about trouble with the release of the funds.

7000 before Thanksgiving?

[Roland99]

89. Wow! Look at that Adv/Dec line and the Up/Down volume. yikes!

[specimenfred1984]

83. Oh well, I guess "bargain hunters" haven't made a dime

Propped up corrupt stocks looked like such a deal too, LOL!

[Dr.Phool]

88. Didn't one of the smart people say that it wasn't possible to close under 8,000?

The charts proved it!

[specimenfred1984]

91. I guess they just spilled their Kool-Aid all over their charts, LOL.

What a bizarre U.S. we live in now where throwing $700 billion at corrupt paper pushing white collar criminals is seen as viable when building things like cars and trucks isn't. Propaganda rules most peoples lives and they don't even know it.

[TheWatcher]

100. Oh Yes. I'm not going to name the specific Poster to stay within the rules

But you are indeed correct Good Doctor.

He came here and chastised all of us on and on about conspiracy kookery, how everything was fine, normal buying was the only thing that could possibly be any explanation, the recovery was coming, we're all kooks who want the market to fail, and we're upset because it isn't happening, blah, blah, blah.

I wonder how his longs did today?

I wouldn't want to think about what happened in his "shorts." :rofl:

[Dr.Phool]

101. Ugh.

And I just made a pot of chili.

[TheWatcher]

102. My Apologies to the Good Doctor.

:)

Take 100 Shares of F and call me in the morning. :)

By the way, new Rumor on the Trading Floor.

Now, I Stress that this is RUMOR, and to be taken with STRICT Grain Of Salt.

Next Financial Domino about to fall. JPM or BAC could be drawing the short straw to absorb it into their Toxic Sponge.

Won't spell it out completely, but it begins with "C" and it was down over 23% on the day.

THAT is scary.

But Don't Worry. Maybe Stammerin' Hank will write them a check.

[Dr.Phool]

112. Yes, that one looked very, very ugly at the close.

If I can buy that one, and get a Hank-out, I'll be rich.

[Roland99]

90. All over but some minor settling. Bloodbath...esp. for small caps. DJIA under 8,000.

DJIA 7,997.28 -427.47 -5.07%
Nasdaq 1,386.42 -96.85 -6.53%
S&P 500 806.61 -52.51 -6.11%
Global Dow 1,339.04 -66.99 -4.76%
Dow Util 353.82 -12.18 -3.33%
NYSE 5,012.04 -353.62 -6.59%
AMEX 1,245.71 -61.00 -4.67%
Russell 2000 412.41 -35.10 -7.84%
Gold future 736.00 +3.30 +0.45%
30-Year Bond 3.97% -0.17 -4.15%
10-Year Bond 3.39% -0.14 -4.07%

[Dr.Phool]

92. Bloodbath is right.

NazQuack below 1400
Dow below 8,000
S&P near 800.

:nuke:

[Roland99]

93. Wow...that's where the DJIA was in Jan. 1998 when I cashed out my 401(k) to buy a house.

10 years later I can jump back in where I left off!

[specimenfred1984]

95. I bet there are a lot of stocks that are even cheaper

Only one problem, they might be trash in a week or so, something to do with lying their corrupt asses off for years.

[Gregorian]

97. Ha! I did the same thing in '94. Best move I ever made.

I paid the penalty, and got that property I wanted. What followed made me a million bucks.

[TheWatcher]

107. 10 Years Of Gains GONE in 3 Months

But The Recession is only going to last a year.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

[UpInArms]

106. a side of volumne numbers and slimy blather to go with those ugly numbers

NYSE Volume 7,390,270,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,420,269,250

Wednesday marked an ugly session on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumbling to their lowest levels in five years and the Dow dropping to a five-year closing low. Concerns over the fate of U.S. automakers, disappointing economic data, a dour outlook from the Fed and the market's inability to hold its lows fueled the selling interest.

The major indices ended the session at their worst levels, in above average volume. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 5.1%, 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively.

October CPI fell by the largest amount on record, which is good news in terms of the inflation outlook, but also represents the weakness of the economy. Specifically, CPI fell 1.0% month-over-month as energy prices plummeted 8.6%. Prices also declined outside of energy, indicating weak demand -- core CPI fell 0.1% as used car prices dropped 2.4% and apparel prices fell 1.0%.

The latest new residential construction data fell to the lowest levels on record, and provide another weak point for fourth quarter GDP calculations. October housing starts declined 4.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 791,000, which was slightly higher than the consensus estimate of 780,000. Building permits dropped 12% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708,000, which was worse than the consensus estimate of 774,000.

The Federal Reserve's 2008 and 2009 projections, released today in the FOMC Oct. 29 meeting minutes, mirrored the latest economic data, with the Fed reducing forecasts for GDP growth and inflation. For 2008, the Fed expects the economy will grow between 0.0% and 0.3%, down sharply from its previous forecast of 1.0% to 1.6%. The 2009 forecast now calls for growth between -0.2% and 1.1%, down from the previous forecast of 2.0% to 2.8%. The Fed also raised its unemployment forecast.

The minutes hinted at the likelihood of further monetary easing, as some FOMC members saw potential for further rate cuts.

Although weakness was broad-based with losses posted by all ten sectors and 492 of the 500 components within the S&P 500, the financial sector got hit the hardest with a decline of 11.5%.

Citigroup (C 6.45, -1.91) tumbled 23% to its lowest level since 1995. Citi said it will buy the remaining $17.4 billion in structure investment vehicles it advised.

Automakers (-21.2%) got clipped as executives from General Motors (GM 2.77, -0.32), Ford (F 1.27, -0.41) and Chrysler, and the head of the UAW testified before the House Financial Services Committee in an attempt to secure a government loan. There were plenty of opponents in the House, which was similar to views that were expressed by Senate Banking Committee members yesterday. GM's CEO said on CNBC that the company is doing everything it can to avoid bankruptcy, as he sees a high risk that a Chapter 11 filing (restructuring) could turn into a Chapter 7 (liquidation). Reports that Toyota Motor (TM 59.64, -3.61) is going to cut North America production also weighed on automakers.

A risk aversion trade lifted Treasuries, with the 30-year bound rallying 3 points to yield 3.94% -- marking the lowest yield since the 30-year bond was introduced in 1977. The 10-year note rose 44 ticks to send its yield down to 3.36%.

In commodity trading, crude prices fell 2.4% to $53.10 per barrel. The government's weekly energy inventory showed a larger-than-expected build in crude and gasoline stockpiles, indicating decreased demand.DJ30 -427.47 NASDAQ -96.85 NQ100 -5.9% R2K -7.9% SP400 -7.4% SP500 -52.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2519/2.36 bln/298 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 187/1.63 bln/2998

3:30 pm : The major indices fall to session lows as financials (-8.9%) get clipped.

The S&P 500, at 823.98, the Nasdaq at 1418.63, and the Dow at 8166.85, are poised to close at their lowest levels since 2003. The S&P 500 is only a few points above its 5-year intraday low of 818.69.

Citigroup (C 6.541, -1.86) is getting hammered, down 22.6% on the day and at its lowest level since 1995. Citi, which said earlier today it will buy $17.4 billion in SIV assets it advised, is one of the most heavily traded stocks this session.

Tomorrow, economic data will be in focus with initial unemployment claims set for release at 8:30 AM ET and the leading indicators and Philadelphia Fed reports both being released at 10:00 AM ET.DJ30 -268.70 NASDAQ -69.64 SP500 -35.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 415/1.84 bln/2375 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 249/1.10 bln/2916

[ozymandius]

109. Wow-ee!

Somehow, it feels to me that the world is spitting up everything the Bush years fed it.

[Dr.Phool]

96. Just caught a banner on CNBC. Commercial Real Estate defaults increasing.

Didn't Roubini predict that was the next shoe to drop about 6 months ago?

He said it would dwarf sub-prime.

[Roland99]

98. Ayup...that was going to go about the same time as hedge funds blowing up, eh?

[Ghost Dog]

110. Here ya go: The CMBS crash

The graphs really say it all.

From Markit, below, are a selection of graphs showing the performance of the CMBX index. The CMBX in an index of CDS written against commercial mortgage-backed bonds. Thus the higher the spread on the CMBS, the lower the implied value of the underlying bonds.

As you can see, CMBS have plummeted across the board.

Note also that some of the steepest declines have been for the triple-A rated tranches. All correlations go to 1, etc. etc.

The proximate cause of the pain was the disclosure last week that the TARP would no longer be used to buy up illiquid securities from the banks. CMBS being foremost among those securities eligible.

/... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/19/18418/the-cmbs-crash/

[Roland99]

114. No wonder all the models are failing. This is all-new territory. Scary territory.

[Demeter]

104. Is It Friday Yet? Hack, Cough

If not, it ought to be. Paulson and his buddies trying to make a case of "crisis" so that he can grab the second $350 billion and run....without lifting a hand in Detroit's direction. We broke 9% on the Official Unemployment....

[Dr.Phool]

113. Early Asian trading in a nosedive.

Hang Seng -666....hmmmm
Nikkei -357....bang

RPT-GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks hit 5-½ yr lows, Asia routed
Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:31pm EST

* MSCI All-Country World Index hits lowest since May 2003

* Oil slumps to below $53 a barrel, global demand seen weak

* Asian bonds surge, 10-yr JGBs hit highest price in a month (Repeats to additional subscribers with no change to text)

By Rafael Nam

HONG KONG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - A rout in Asia pushed world stocks to their lowest in 5-½ years on Thursday, while oil fell to below $53 a barrel and government bonds surged as economic data indicated a global recession could get even uglier.

Investors are bracing for tough conditions ahead after the latest bearish signals for the global economy: The Federal Reserve slashed its U.S. growth forecasts, U.S. consumer prices fell at a record pace last month, and Japan's October exports fell by the most in seven years.

The bleak outlook, which is hitting sectors from South Korean chip makers to U.S. auto makers, comes amid renewed worries about the global financial system. Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares tumbled to a 13-year low on Wednesday as investors questioned survival prospects. .

"Everybody is accepting the fact that we are in for a prolonged global recession and we are seeing a lot of pullbacks," said Lucinda Chan, a division director with Macquarie Equities in Australia.

Like dominoes, Asian markets fell a day after U.S. stocks hit their lowest in more than five years. The MSCI All-Country World Index .MIWD00000PUS was down 0.7 percent at 0200 GMT, having hit its lowest level since May 2003.

(snip)
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP41114120081120?rpc=44