STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 13

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 13, 2009

DAYS REMAINING UNTIL BUSH IS GONE = 6.5

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those who predicted the Dow's precipitous return on Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 12, 2009

Dow... 8,473.97 -125.21 (-1.48%)
Nasdaq... 1,538.79 -32.80 (-2.09%)
S&P 500... 870.26 -20.09 (-2.26%)
Gold future... 821.00 -34.00 (-4.14%)
30-Year Bond 2.99% -0.07 (-2.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.31% -0.10 (-4.07%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

"When", Not "If" - Not Even Close
BY ROB KIRBY

Two weeks ago in this space in an article titled, “When”, Not “If”, I attempted to highlight the disparity between annual global gold production versus amounts of physical ounces of gold transferred on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). At this time I would like to acknowledge the contribution of reader Allan C. who pointed out two oversights in my analysis which led to my dramatically understating my position:

First, global annual gold production, I stated,

2,500 metric tonnes produced = 88,184,904.9 ounces

It was pointed out that while this is technically true, these would be ovoirdupois ounces <28.35 grams each>. Gold is customarily measured and priced in Troy Ounces which contain 31.103 grams.

.....

More Theatre of the Absurd

The English have always been known for their stage craft. If the revelations above have not already put your head-in-a-spin, then this cathartic act of Shakes-fraudian bamboozlement on the part of the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street (Bank of England) ought to blow you away,

Reform plan raises fears of Bank secrecy

The Bank of England will be able to print extra money without having legally to declare it under new plans which will heighten fears that the Government will secretly pump extra cash into the economy.

The Government is set to throw out the 165-year old law that obliges the Bank to publish a weekly account of its balance sheet – a move that will allow it theoretically to embark covertly on so-called quantitative easing. The Banking Bill, which is currently passing through Parliament, abolishes a key section of the law laid down by Robert Peel's Government in 1844 which originally granted the Bank the sole right to print UK money.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[CatholicEdHead]

48. So, this would the British equivalent of removing the M3, which happened here in early 2006

That is what is looks like to me. It does not bode well for the future if that law has been around for 165 years.

[Ghost Dog]

63. Uh huh: Reform plan raises fears of Bank secrecy

The Government is set to throw out the 165-year old law that obliges the Bank to publish a weekly account of its balance sheet – a move that will allow it theoretically to embark covertly on so-called quantitative easing. The Banking Bill, which is currently passing through Parliament, abolishes a key section of the law laid down by Robert Peel's Government in 1844 which originally granted the Bank the sole right to print UK money.

The ostensible reason for the reform, which means the Bank will not have to print details of its own accounts and the amount of notes and coins flowing through the UK economy, is to allow the Bank more power to overhaul troubled financial institutions in the future, under its Special Resolution Authority.

However, some have warned that it means: "there is nothing to stop an unreported and unmonitored flooding of the money market by the undisciplined use of the printing presses."

...

The Bank said it will still publish details of its balance sheet, but, significantly, the data – the main indicator of the extent of quantitative easing – will not be presented until more than a month has elapsed. For instance, under the new terms of the law, if the Bank were to have embarked on a policy of quantitative easing last month, the figures on this would not be published until the end of this month.

The reforms, which are likely to be implemented later this year, will make the Bank of England by far the most secretive major central in the world, experts said.

/... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4214232/Reform-plan-raises-fears-of-Bank-secrecy.html

[Ghost Dog]

61. Trading in gold soars by 60pc

The turnover in gold increased by 58pc in 2008 to a record $20.2 trillion, according to International Financial Services London, a body that promotes the City of London. Silver trading also saw a dramatic increase during the year, rising by 39pc to a new record of $2.6 trillion.

The growth in turnover was partly due to an increase in prices of precious metals during the year, with gold reaching its highest ever price of $1,011 per ounce in March, IFSL said.

Daily reported net trading in gold on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) averaged $20bn in the first 11 months of 2008, a rise of 45pc on the same period of the previous year. Daily trading in silver on the LBMA increased by 32pc to $2bn.

"The actual volume of London market turnover is probably three to five times the reported turnover because transactions which are netted out do not appear in the published statistics," IFSL added.

Futures and options trading of gold on exchanges increased by more than 80pc in 2008 to a record $5.1 trillion. Trading of silver also hit a new high, rising by 60pc to a $1.2 trillion.

Exchange traded gold and silver funds have been the strongest source of growth in demand since their introduction in 2003, IFSL said.

The price of gold is expected to average $910 an ounce in 2009, 4.3pc more than last year, according to a panel of 20 analysts, traders and investors surveyed recently by Bloomberg. But silver and platinum prices will decline this year, the survey predicted.

/. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/4227086/Trading-in-gold-soars-by-60pc.html

I don't get what Kirby is saying, since these numbers refer to transactions, with presumably the same gold changing hands several times over?

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Trade Balance Nov
Briefing.com -$51.0B
Consensus -$51.0B
Prior -$57.2B

14:00 Treasury Budget Dec
Briefing.com NA
Consensus -$33.0B
Prior -$48.3B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. Nov. trade deficit plunges to $40.4 bln

01. U.S. Nov. trade deficit plunges to $40.4 bln
8:33 AM ET, Jan 13, 2009

[UpInArms]

66. U.S. Dec. federal outlays $321.4 billion, up 41%

24. U.S. Dec. federal budget deficit $83.6 billion as expected
2:00 PM ET, Jan 13, 2009

25. U.S. year-to-date deficit $485.2 billion
2:00 PM ET, Jan 13, 2009

26. U.S. Dec. federal receipts $237.8 billion, down 14%
2:00 PM ET, Jan 13, 2009

27. U.S. Dec. federal outlays $321.4 billion, up 41%
2:00 PM ET, Jan 13, 2009

28. TARP added $51.1 billion to December deficit
2:00 PM ET, Jan 13, 2009

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls below $37 on gloomy demand outlook

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $37 a barrel Tuesday in Asia on expectations crude demand will weaken amid a severe global economic slowdown.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery was down 92 cents at $36.67 a barrel by afternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Crude prices have fallen more than 25 percent since reaching just above $50 a barrel last week as traders returned from the holiday break to find evidence of falling manufacturing and consumer spending across the globe.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 0.41 cent to $1.08 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 0.24 cent to $1.47 a gallon while natural gas for February delivery slid 1.4 cents to $5.53 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

20. February crude down 62 cents to $36.97 a barrel on Globex

01. February crude down 62 cents to $36.97 a barrel on Globex
8:23 AM ET, Jan 13, 2009

[ozymandius]

4. Stock futures point to losses on earnings fears

(Reuters) – Stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Tuesday on mounting fears over corporate results, while a drop in oil prices is likely to weigh on energy stocks.

At 5:40 a.m. EST, futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.54 percent, Dow Jones futures were down 0.47 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.48 percent.

Highlights:

* The beleaguered banking sector will remain in the spotlight after concerns about huge credit losses at Citigroup (C.N) dragged its stock 17 percent lower on Monday.

* Sources familiar with the situation said on Tuesday Citigroup would close its private banking unit in China, which had sought to attract funds from the country's fast-growing ranks of millionaires, as it streamlines its businesses. Citigroup shares in Frankfurt (TRV.F) were down 5.6 percent.

* Kicking off the earnings season, aluminum producer Alcoa Inc (AA.N), which is slashing 15,000 jobs, posted a wider-than-expected quarterly loss after the closing bell on Monday, but revenue was $700 million higher than expected, and the company's stock was little changed after-hours. Alcoa shares in Frankfurt (ALU.F) slipped 0.7 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090113/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks_14

[UpInArms]

21. Citigroup slides on outlook worry

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE50C3B320090113

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Citigroup Inc (C.N) dropped 9 percent to $5.10 before the bell on Tuesday as investors fretted about the bank's outlook and fears of more credit losses ahead mounted.

[ozymandius]

5. Volcker: This crisis is different

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The financial crisis that has plunged the United States into recession is different in its complexity and scope than previous bouts of turmoil, key presidential economic adviser Paul Volcker said on Monday.

Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said he did not know how long the economic malaise would last but policy makers should use this opportunity to rebuild the financial system on a more stable foundation.

....

Indeed, Volcker said the economy and markets were now feeling the hangover effects of one of the greatest bubbles in history.

He said it started with stock price rises in the 1980s and 1990s and then the housing boom that reached its climax this decade.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090113/pl_nm/us_usa_economy_volcker

---

The article is a tad skimpy on details.

[AnneD]

45. Of all the economic appointee and advisors.....

Obama has, Volker and Buffett are the only 2 I like and have any degree of trust in.

[ozymandius]

6. Fed governor resigns, leaving 3 vacancies

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The Federal Reserve said Monday that Randall Kroszner submitted his resignation as a member of its Board of Governors, effective January 21.

Kroszner, 46, who has been a member of the Board since March 1, 2006, will return to the University of Chicago to assume a newly created chaired professorship.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090112/pl_afp/usbankexecutivekroszner_newsmlmmd

[UpInArms]

17. don't let the door hit ya,

and I hope that you are found complicit in this mess.

[pjt7]

25. Why are there so many wacko's

that come out of the University of Chicago ?

[ozymandius]

32. Milton Friedman

He was a success story because his radical ideas were made part of public policy. He is now reviled because his radical ideas were made part of public policy. Ironic, eh? Think battered wife syndrome.

It's a bit like the Reagan cult, IMO. He was the golden god for awhile. Some diehards do not want to let go of the myth of Reagan's tenure.

[Karenina]

57. Leo Strauss

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article5010.htm

Leo Strauss repeatedly defends the political realism of Thrasymachus and Machiavelli (see, for example, his Natural Right and History, p. 106). This view of the world is clearly manifest in the foreign policy of the current administration in the United States.

A second fundamental belief of Strauss’s ancients has to do with their insistence on the need for secrecy and the necessity of lies. In his book Persecution and the Art of Writing, Strauss outlines why secrecy is necessary. He argues that the wise must conceal their views for two reasons – to spare the people’s feelings and to protect the elite from possible reprisals.

The people will not be happy to learn that there is only one natural right – the right of the superior to rule over the inferior, the master over the slave, the husband over the wife, and the wise few over the vulgar many. In On Tyranny, Strauss refers to this natural right as the “tyrannical teaching” of his beloved ancients. It is tyrannical in the classic sense of rule above rule or in the absence of law (p. 70).

Now, the ancients were determined to keep this tyrannical teaching secret because the people are not likely to tolerate the fact that they are intended for subordination; indeed, they may very well turn their resentment against the superior few. Lies are thus necessary to protect the superior few from the persecution of the vulgar many.

The effect of Strauss’s teaching is to convince his acolytes that they are the natural ruling elite and the persecuted few. And it does not take much intelligence for them to surmise that they are in a situation of great danger, especially in a world devoted to the modern ideas of equal rights and freedoms. Now more than ever, the wise few must proceed cautiously and with circumspection. So, they come to the conclusion that they have a moral justification to lie in order to avoid persecution. Strauss goes so far as to say that dissembling and deception – in effect, a culture of lies – is the peculiar justice of the wise.

A partial list from a Francis Boyle article:

"Just recently the University of Chicago officially celebrated its Bush Jr. Straussian cabal, highlighting Wolfowitz Ph.D. '72, Ahmad Chalabi, Ph.D. '69, Abram Shulsky, A.M. '68, Ph.D. '72, Zalmay Khalilzad, Ph.D. '79, together with faculty members Bellow, X '39 and Bloom, A.B. '49, A.M. '53, Ph.D. '55. According to the June 2003 University of Chicago Magazine, Bloom's book "helped popularize Straussian ideals of democracy." It is correct to assert that Bloom's rant helped to popularize Straussian "ideas," but they were blatantly anti-democratic, Machiavellian, Nietzschean, and elitist to begin with. Only the University of Chicago would have the unmitigated Orwellian gall to publicly claim that Strauss and Bloom cared one whit about democracy, let alone comprehended the "ideals of democracy."

[ozymandius]

7. HK index stretches losing streak with 2.2 pct drop

HONG KONG – Hong Kong shares extended their losing streak Tuesday, with the main stock index falling more than 2 percent Tuesday, as Asian markets slumped.

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index shed 302.95 points, or 2.2 percent, to 13,668.05, posting its sixth straight session of declines.

Shares were hurt by heavy selling in other markets, with Tokyo's index retreating almost 5 percent after being closed for a holiday Monday. Also spooking investors were new figures showing China's exports fell last month at their fastest rate in a decade.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090113/ap_on_bi_ge/as_hong_kong_markets

[Ghost Dog]

40. GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares dive on bleak earnings vista; bonds buoyed

Tue Jan 13, 2009 7:48am EST LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Expectations of a dismal company results season, from U.S. banks to Asian industry giants, pummelled shares on Tuesday and buoyed government debt.

European shares fell 2.4 percent, all but wiping out the gains achieved since the end of 2008 and slipping for a fifth session running <.EU>, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 shed 4.8 percent after being closed on Monday for a public holiday.

The euro slid to a one-month low against the dollar as the European Central Bank looked set to cut interest rates again this week, while oil continued to drop on fears about reduced energy demand as the world economy shrinks.

...

Two-year euro zone government bond yields briefly fell to their lowest since the launch of the euro in 1999, according to Reuters charts, as a new wave of risk aversion took hold.

...

MSCI's all-country world share index .MIWD00000PUS was down about 1.6 percent, its fifth negative performance in a row.

...

S&P has also warned Spain, Greece and Ireland in recent days that their credit ratings were under threat from the global credit crisis, another factor hurting the euro.

"The market has become sensitive to bad news such as credit outlook downgrading, especially with many investors now considering where they should be repatriating funds from, instead of investing to," said Masaki Fukui, a senior market economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank in Japan.

Intra euro zone government bond yield spreads blew out to their widest since the launch of the euro a decade ago as investors piled into German Bunds, the safest and most liquid of regional government debt.

Ten-year Portuguese, French, Belgian, Greek, Spanish and Dutch bonds were all yielding their biggest premiums over benchmark Bunds since 1999, according to Reuters charts.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLD18476720090113?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

42. Germany details aid as global shares fall

BERLIN/BEIJING (Reuters) - Germany detailed its second stimulus package in as many months on Tuesday as grim data from China and Japan underscored the scale of the global financial crisis.

Germany's 50 billion euro (45.5 billion pound) plan comes as President-elect Barack Obama seeks approval to unlock the second half of a $700 billion (480 billion pound) U.S. package approved in October.

"This is the biggest package the Federal Republic of Germany has ever seen," Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told German broadcaster WDR. The country's second aid plan was agreed late on Monday.

France may pump in more aid on top of what it says is a 26 billion euro plan while Britain, which unveiled a 20 billion pound package in November, faced a trio of surveys on Tuesday suggesting its economy had entered its deepest recession since at least the 1980s.

...

A record rise in Japanese bank lending in December reported on Tuesday showed companies, struggling to raise cash via commercial paper or bonds, had been forced to borrow more from banks.

...

Germany's Steinbrueck said the country's aid package involved a mixture of investment spending and tax cuts including incentives for new car purchases.

A fall in Chinese December exports and imports on Tuesday underscored the global slowdown which government aid packages are designed to tackle.

China's imports fell 21.3 percent while exports fell 2.8 percent from year-earlier levels -- a small fall compared with declines of 42 percent and 17.4 percent reported by neighbours Taiwan and South Korea.

Ma Xiaoping, an economist with HSBC in Beijing, said she expected China's exports to fall at an annual rate of about 20 percent in coming months -- in contrast to the 17.2 percent increase in 2008.

...

Sony shares fell more than 8 percent on reports of an expected loss. A source close to the matter told Reuters the maker of Bravia flat TVs and Playstation 3 video game consoles may post an operating loss of about $1.1 billion for the year to end-March.

/... http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/news/international/Germany_details_aid_as_global_shares_fall.html?siteSect=143&sid=10190058&cKey=1231850310000&ty=ti

[Ghost Dog]

59. Europe stocks end down 1.5 pct, financials fall

Tue Jan 13, 2009 12:34pm EST LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - European shares ended lower on Tuesday as investor concern intensified about the scale of the economic slowdown, with financials leading the index lower.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares closed off 1.5 percent at 840.36 points, having sunk as far as 828.68 points.

"Markets are pricing in a greater European slowdown than perhaps imagined towards the end of last year and are selling off," said Peter Dixon, UK economist at Commerzbank. "I think it is a realisation that the data flow over the last few weeks has been universally awful out of Europe," Dixon said.

...

Banks led the losers on the index. Barclays (BARC.L), RBS (RBS.L) and Lloyds TSB (LLOY.L) were down 5.4-10.1 percent.

...

Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) fell back 0.9 percent on talk that Deutsche Post (DPWGn.DE) - down 6 percent - could take a stake in the group as part of a deal to complete the sale of Deutsche Postbank (DPBGn.DE), a source with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Deutsche Postbank soared 11.7 percent. Post and Deutsche Bank declined to comment.

Fortis (FOR.BR) gained nearly 18 percent on market talk that the Belgian government was set to buy the remains of the troubled financial services group.

The insurance sector were also heavyweight losers on the index. A Citigroup analyst said that a sale of assets by American International Group (AIG.N), once the world's biggest insurer by market value, to repay debt holders could leave little value for common stockholders. Axa (AXAF.PA), Allianz (ALVG.DE) and RSA Insurance Group (RSA.L) were down 3.4-4.85 percent.

...

Energy stocks recovered from earlier losses as crude CLc1 gained 3.35 percent, having earlier touched a three-week low.

BG Group (BG.L), ENI (ENI.MI) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSb.L) were up 0.1-1.6 percent.

Drug makers were on the rise as investors turned to the safety of defensive stocks.

Roche (ROG.VX), Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) and Shire (SHP.L) were 1.2-2.3 percent higher.

European aerospace group EADS (EAD.PA) rose 1.8 percent after the company said it had abandoned a "significant" defence acquisition in the United States to conserve cash and prop up Airbus plane sales to crisis-hit airlines.

Actelion (ATLN.VX) gained 6 percent after Credit Suisse raised their price target on the stock to 74 francs from 67.

Across Europe, the FTSE 100 .FTSE index was down 0.6 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI was 1.75 percent lower and France's CAC 40 .FCHI was down 1.5 percent.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALD21201120090113?rpc=44&sp=true

[ozymandius]

8. U.S. Economy May Shrink 1.5% in 2009 as Recession Stymies Fed

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Economists slashed forecasts for U.S. growth in 2009 and projected Federal Reserve policy makers won’t be able to start raising interest rates until 2010, according to a monthly Bloomberg News survey.

The world’s largest economy will contract 1.5 percent this year, a half percentage point more than projected last month, according to the median of 59 forecasts in the survey taken from Jan. 5 to Jan. 12. The slump will push inflation below what some Fed officials consider price stability, the survey showed.

....

Quarterly Forecasts

Gross domestic product dropped at a 5 percent annual pace in the last three months of 2008 and will contract 3 percent this quarter, with a 0.8 percent drop in the next three months, according to the survey median. All estimates were lower than in the previous monthly survey.

Obama’s spending and tax-cut package will result in GDP increasing 3.7 percent more by the end of 2010 than it would without the stimulus, according to a study compiled by his economic advisers. The two-year plan also will generate or save as many as 4 million jobs, according to the report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aTv0Xmo40wr8&refer=economy

[Birthmark]

50. Bookmark that story.

It should be good for a rueful laugh in about a year. "Those were the good old days when we thought the economy would only contract 1.5%!"

[ozymandius]

9. Obama to Limit Dividends From Banks Getting ‘Exceptional’ Aid

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama will order the Treasury Department to limit executive compensation and dividend payments by financial institutions that get “exceptional assistance” from the financial rescue fund, Larry Summers, a top economic adviser to the president-elect, told Congress.

Summers sent a letter to congressional leaders yesterday outlining the conditions that Obama supports in tapping the second half of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Obama wants more of the money funneled to community banks and small businesses, as well as steps to loosen credit for individuals and help for homeowners facing foreclosure, said Summers, picked by Obama to head the White House National Economic Council. He also wants greater oversight of the aid program and a public accounting of how the money is spent.

....

‘Fundamentally Change’

Obama said yesterday in Washington that he wants to “fundamentally change” the way the TARP has been administered. He criticized the Bush administration for the way the bailout has been handled.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aRd7vcKODH78&refer=us

[ozymandius]

10. GM May Lose as Many as 500 Dealers in U.S. This Year (Update)

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. said it may lose as many as 500 dealers in its home market this year, an increase from 350 last year, as the largest U.S. automaker works toward a goal of cutting 1,700 by 2012.

The reduction will widen in part because of the strain of a fourth straight year of U.S. auto-sales declines and a company initiative to trim brands and emphasize only Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC and Buick, GM North American President Mark LaNeve said in an interview today. GM may also have to spend more to convince some of its 6,400 dealers to consolidate, he said.

....

The expected reduction of 400 to 500 dealers will include owners retiring without being replaced, outlets failing in the slowing economy and GM helping consolidate stores in markets with too many locations for the same brand, LaNeve said. He didn’t say how much GM is spending on closing dealerships.

....

GM is trying to manage the process of trimming dealership to avoid the $1 billion cost incurred when it dropped the Oldsmobile brand in 2000, he said. GM provides 10 percent to 20 percent of the costs of combining outlets, with the rest from private funding, LaNeve said. The company’s share will probably rise if GM chooses to eliminate a brand, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEBxMmCfl0xY

[JNelson6563]

13. They should dump Buick

And would it kill 'em to quit makin' those damn Hummers??

In other news, shocking bit on the bank in England and loved the 'toon, so true.

:toast:

Julie

[Roland99]

14. Agreed.

Dump Buick and merge Pontiac into Checy.

[Tansy_Gold]

26. Another vote to dump Buick.

Or as my French-speaking friend used to say, "Bweek."

[Hugin]

35. Et tu, Brute?

Aw, man... I love my '77 Buick.

*sigh*

On the brighter side... Maybe it would become the classic I had always hoped. :7

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Et_tu,_Brute

[AnneD]

44. Buicks are well built....

and have good re-sale. Buicks have always been a comfy, cost efficent ride-they just don't have the pizzaz that other cars have but trust me-I am a connisure of used cars and I have never been dissapointed by a Buick. PS, In China Buicks are one of the hottest selling brands.

[Roland99]

52. I think Buick was #2 behind VW when I was in Shanghai about 3 years ago.

But perhaps that's something they could make for the foreign market. Once the baby boomers age past car-buying, not many will want one.

Just a stigma attached to them here I suppose.

[ozymandius]

30. Me too.

Hummers should be declared unsafe for the roadways. That brand, too, deserves the old heave-ho.

[ozymandius]

11. Retail Bankruptcy: Shane Jewelry

from Calculated Risk

These will become too common to list them all ... the story also notes ShopperTrak is predicting that retail sales will likely drop 4 percent in the first quarter.

From Bloomberg: Shane Co., U.S. Jewelry Retailer, Seeks Bankruptcy

Shane Co., the family-owned jewelry retailer with 23 stores in 14 states, sought bankruptcy court protection blaming “disappointing” holiday sales and a “grim” outlook on the deepening U.S. recession.

The 38-year-old company, based in Centennial, Colorado, listed both assets and debt of $100 million to $500 million in Chapter 11 documents filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Denver.

Note: The Census Bureau will release Q4 retail sales on Wednesday, and those numbers are guaranteed to be UGLY.

[ozymandius]

12. Bleak Outlooks, Exec Departures at BofA, Citi (cue the weeping violins)

from Housing Wire

Word out of both Citigroup Inc. (C: 5.60 0.00%) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC: 11.43 0.00%) in recent weeks suggests an overall bleak outlook for fiscal 2008 and a shaky foothold going into 2009. Citigroup is expected to report massive fourth-quarter 2008 losses much greater than expected, but its lead independent director Richard Parsons said the bank’s board stands behind CEO Vikram Pandit, according to a Wall Street Journal report Monday. “We have confidence in the current management and leadership of Vikram,” Parsons told the Journal Sunday. He also denied recent rumors that Pandit may lose his job in light of the company recently losing Robert Rubin, according to the Journal.

.....

Both banks have received money through the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program. BofA on Oct. 28 received $15 billion through a stock purchase within the TARP’s capital purchase program. Citigroup received $25 billion the same day through the CPP. Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. — which was acquired by BofA — received $10 billion in the same fashion, although the dispense of those funds was deferred pending its merger with BofA, which completed Jan. 1 in a deal valued at $17.4 billion.

Then, months later, Citi received another $20 billion in TARP funds through a different program — the targeted investment program — which as of Dec. 31 had not granted or promised funds to any other financial institution, suggesting the program was formed solely to give Citi more bailout funds. The question remains — after more than two months of capital injections in these banks and consensus from both BofA and Citi officials that 2009 offers a bleak outlook — whether they will stay afloat on their own or require even more funding going forward.

[ozymandius]

31. CEO Firings On the Rise As Downturn Gains Steam

A deepening labor market downturn that cost 524,000 Americans their jobs last month is even swelling the jobless rate for chief executives.

William Watkins, ousted Monday at Seagate Technology LLC, is the sixth CEO of a publicly held company to be replaced in just the last eight days. His exit follows the departures last week of CEOs at Tyson Foods Inc., Borders Group Inc., Orbitz Worldwide Inc., Chico's FAS Inc. and Bebe Stores Inc.

Many experts view the changes as harbingers of significantly more turmoil in executive suites this year. Like other companies, these six corporations have been grappling with poor financial results, slumping stock prices and, in some cases, investor criticism.

An informal survey of management consultants, recruiters, investors and governance specialists pointed to several other CEOs whose jobs may be vulnerable: Rick Wagoner of General Motors Corp.; Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc.; Jonathan Schwartz of Sun Microsystems Inc.; Steve Odland of Office Depot Inc.; and Kenneth Lewis of Bank of America Corp. Officials at those companies said their CEOs retain the board's support or declined to comment.

....

Last year, 61 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index changed CEOs, up from 56 a year earlier, according to executive search firm Spencer Stuart. The number of such switches may increase this year, Mr. Jenter predicted. Boards typically oust CEOs a year or two after relative shareholder returns start to slip, he said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123180675543775591.html

---

The question that remains: will these CEOs carry unearned loot out the door?

[AnneD]

49. I have an apple franchise that the can buy into.....

My prediction-once these parasites are removed and companies start rewarding real performance instead of cutting workers just to enhance the bottom line things will improve. Also I recommend the salary be more in line with what the real workers are paid.

CEO pay and incentive packages are so outlandish now that they really are cutting into the profits now.

[UpInArms]

15. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.873 Change +0.667 (+0.86%)

Dollar Rebound or Euro Rally?

http://www.bktraderfx.com/site/fx-weekly-reports/fx-weekly-0109-1609-dollar-rebound-or-euro-rally

As my good friend Andy Busch put it, the NFPs on Friday were like Chicago weather. After you’ve experienced 10 degrees (Fahrenheit) 25 degrees doesn’t seem so cold. At -524K the US jobless data was horrible but against expectations of an even uglier -700K number, Friday’s report looked like a win. After struggling for a few minutes to make up its mind, the EURUSD plunged like a stone closing the day down more than 300 points off its highs.

Dollar’s rally was in no way a vote of confidence on the US economy which continues to crater as unemployment increases and consumer demand falls off the cliff, but rather simply a referendum on who sucks less in the currency market at the present time. Although the US employment situation is grave, the news from the Eurozone was hardly any better as we wrote on Wednesday, “unemployment in EZ largest economy rose for the first time in 3 years by a greater than expected 18K jobs. Today’s data point is the first clear evidence of a trend change in German labor market conditions, suggesting that further job losses are on the way as 2009 unfolds. The news is likely to confirm market expectations of a 50bp cut from ECB next week and should the labor situation deteriorate further, it will no doubt lead to additional interest rate cuts as the year progresses. We have argued ad nausea that ECB monetary policy in 2009 will be driven by the conditions in the German labor market and we continue to believe that this will be the primary negative factor on the euro this year.”

However the question remains - will ECB budge? Next Thursday Mr. Trichet and company hold their monthly interest rate meeting and market expectations are rather muted. At best most market participants expect only a 25bp cut from ECB, but chances are good that Mr. Truchet may hold his ground an simply leave rates unchanged. Although this will no doubt only aggravate the economic situation in the EZ and could result in the region’ unemployment rate climbing back up to double digits it may nevertheless serve a short term catalyst for a EURUSD rally. If euro’s rates are unchanged it will remain the only G-4 currency to yield better than 2%, but Mr. Trichet’s intransigence could cost him dearly in the long run.

Despite EZ massive interest rate advantage last weeks auction of German Bunds went off horribly in comparison to the auction of US Treasuries - a clear indication that the msrket believes that the tight monetary policies of ECB are unsustainable. Therefore the pair appears to be trapped in the 1.3300-1.3800 range for the time being as traders are left to look for any signs of stabilization on either side of the Atlantic.

...more...

US Dollar Strength May Hinge Upon Risk Trends Once Again

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Strength_May_Hinge_1231540067305.html



Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bearish

- US consumer credit fell by the most since at least 1943, when record keeping began, as Americans shun credit cards
- The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the US budget deficit will hit $1.2 trillion this year, not including any stimulus plan
- US non-farm payrolls fell in line with expectations by 524K, bringing the 2008 total to the most since World War II

The US dollar ended the week mixed across the majors, as the currency tumbled against the British pound, which was strong across the board, but also slipped versus some of the commodity dollars on a brief pick up in risk appetite. However, the US dollar’s biggest rally of the week was on Friday, after data showed that US non-farm payrolls fell by a whopping 524,000 in December and brought the cumulative total of job losses in 2008 to 2.589 million, the most since 1945. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose more than expected to a 16-year high of 7.2 percent from 6.8 percent. So why did the US dollar rally in response? There are a few reasons. First, most of the major currency pairs remain within massive ranges, but major support levels for the US dollar helped to stabilize its decline. From a fundamental perspective, it is necessary to consider the fact that interest rates in the US can't really go any lower since the Federal Reserve has already cut the fed funds target to a record low range of 0.0 percent - 0.25 percent, and it is that interest rate dynamic (or lack of it), that is allowing the greenback to brush off this abysmal data. Furthermore, a sharp drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and surge in the Japanese yen on the same day suggest that risk aversion is lingering in the financial markets.

When looking ahead to the next week of trading, it will be important to keep the status of risk trends in mind, especially given the event risk on hand. On Tuesday morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak in London on the financial crisis and policy response, and this could prove to be one of the biggest market-movers of the week due to its potential impact on risk sentiment. If Chairman Bernanke is bearish on prospects for the financial markets and global economy, his comments could have very negative repercussions for the stock markets, and we could see flight-to-quality spark demand for Treasuries, the US dollar, and Japanese yen. On the other hand, if he announces a new type of policy action or if he manages to inspire confidence that conditions will not get significantly worse, risky assets could rally.

Other indicators to watch include advance retail sales, which are forecasted to show that US retail sales fell negative for the sixth straight month in December. This is particularly negative because the holiday shopping season is supposed to be a boon for retailers, but even the most aggressive discounting wasn’t able to offset the impact of a deteriorating labor market, tighter credit conditions, and a year-long recession. Meanwhile, the release of the December reading of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) could lead the term “deflation” to be used abundantly in coming weeks and months. Indeed, CPI is forecasted to have plunged 0.9 percent during December while the annual rate is anticipated to have fallen negative for the first time since 1955 by 0.1 percent. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, though, core CPI may have risen a slight 0.1 percent during the month, leaving the annual rate to edge down to a more than 4-year low of 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent. Overall, the news could weigh on the US dollar if the headline CPI figure does indeed fall negative.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. A Page From the Hoover Playbook

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/06/AR2009010602824.html

As the nation navigates through the most perilous straits it has seen since the 1930s, policymakers are looking back to the '30s to see which of the paths that Depression-era America embarked upon actually led toward recovery. Well, some of our policymakers. Others, it seems, have seized upon the very policies that deepened the Depression and are repackaging them as solutions for our time.

In Monday's meeting between President-elect Barack Obama and congressional leaders, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell suggested that instead of providing aid to the states to help them meet their Medicaid and education obligations, the federal government offer them loans. The idea is ridiculous on its face: With revenue drying up, states are already slashing services and reducing their workforces, which only deepens the downturn. The last thing they'd be inclined to do would be to take on more debt at the very moment they're struggling to balance their budgets.

But back to my original point: This idea was tried once before, in the depths of the Depression. In 1932, Congress appropriated $300 million to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation to send to the states for unemployment relief. (Unemployment insurance did not exist until the Social Security Act of 1935 was passed). Unfortunately, Herbert Hoover's RFC didn't offer the funds to the states as grants but as loans. Already all-but-insolvent, many states didn't take the offer. And the economy continued its plunge into the abyss.

This is Mitch McConnell's idea of a policy worth reviving.

Such historical illiteracy can result not only in cures that kill the patient but is also a cause of our current crisis. In Sunday's New York Times magazine, economics columnist Joe Nocera reported on the intricate mathematical models that Wall Street banks and brokerages used to assess their exposure to risk -- models, it's now painfully clear, that failed to alert our financial titans that they were parading off a cliff. Devised by the quants (Wall Street's name for the gifted mathematicians it employed), the models factored in an immense number of variables, including market behavior going back a quarter-century, in coming up with daily quantifications of risk.

But in addition to all their quants, Wall Street should have hired a handful of hists (my version of Wall Streetese for economic historians). Those hists might have insisted that the risk models include data from the late 1920s, the last time that America's financial institutions were as highly leveraged and as lightly regulated as they were last year. Those hists might have noted that even as U.S. households bought more and more on credit, their median annual income had flat-lined ($50,557 in 2000, $50,233 in 2007) and that this was a story that could only end badly -- much as it did at the end of the '20s, when the purchasing power of American farmers and workers tanked.

Unfortunately for us all, it's on the question of how to restore broadly based prosperity that the historical illiteracy of the American elite is at its most acute. Our opinion leaders have one thing right: We need to increase Americans' education levels. From 1875 to 1975, schooling for the average American rose by seven years. It has not increased since.

But education is hardly the only factor in boosting Americans' incomes. The one great period of broadly shared prosperity in U.S. history remains the three decades following World War II, which, anything but coincidentally, is the one period in which America had high levels of unionization. The business lobby is throwing big money into ads opposing the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA), which would make it easier for workers to join unions, but one concern it has neglected to address is how the United States can again become a land of broad-based affluence with private-sector unionization at its current 7 percent level. There is no historic precedent for mass prosperity absent mass collective bargaining. The model cannot be constructed.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Chopper Ben Flapping Lips

03. Bernanke: No problem with maturity of balance sheet holdings
8:10 AM ET, Jan 13, 2009

04. Bernanke: Fed won't set single target for new policy steps
8:08 AM ET, Jan 13, 2009

05. Fed could expand classes of securities purchased: Bernanke
8:07 AM ET, Jan 13, 2009

06. Bernanke repeats Fed could buy longer-term Treasuries
8:07 AM ET, Jan 13, 2009

07. Bernanke: Biggest banks must accept close govt. scrutiny
8:05 AM ET, Jan 13, 2009

08. Bernanke: No lasting recovery without more bank aid
8:04 AM ET, Jan 13, 2009

09. Bernanke: Obama stimulus could boost economic activity
8:03 AM ET, Jan 13, 2009

[UpInArms]

19. Next step is to get toxic assets off bank books: Bernanke

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/next-step-get-toxic-assets/story.aspx?guid=%7BC7AD2CEA%2DEEB8%2D4787%2DA0E3%2DFC49C5A8097A%7D&dist=msr_3

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The next step in the battle against the financial market crisis is to get toxic assets off the balance sheets of financial institutions, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. This may require additional government outlays, presumably above and beyond the $700 billion fund set up by Congress last fall. In a speech in London, Bernanke said that there are several ways to remove troubled assets. One way would be to set up a "bad bank" which would purchase the toxic debt. The government could also purchase the assets or provide guarantees under which the taxpayers would absorb some of the losses. Even though the Fed has undertaken several unconventional methods to battle the financial crisis, no end is in sight, Bernanke said. "With the worsening of the economy's growth prospects, continued credit losses and asset markdowns may maintain for a time the pressure on the capital and balance sheet capacities of financial institutions," he said.

[Tansy_Gold]

27. THEY'RE TOXIC FOR A REASON

THEY'RE NOT WORTH SHIT. THE GOVERNMENT/TAXPAYERS SHOULDN'T BE BUYING THEM!!




Tansy Gold, who's gonna have a fucking stroke over this. . . . . .:grr:

[ozymandius]

29. How does Bernanke convince himself this is a good idea?

Does he pound shots and play Russian roulette every night after spewing this trash talk?

[4dsc]

38. What about my toxic assets??

WTF here.. Just about every American has some toxic assets they would like to unload on the government to help with their bottom line.. Why not bailout the average joe this time..

[Demeter]

53. But I Already Divorced Him, Years Ago!

If I'd known I could have gotten money for him......

[UpInArms]

22. Treasurys down after Bernanke says Fed may buy U.S. debt

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasurys-down-after-bernanke-says/story.aspx?guid=%7BA75F49AD%2D3A22%2D4E85%2DB7AD%2DF3A1D1C08084%7D&dist=msr_3

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices declined Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke repeated that the central bank could buy longer-term Treasurys to keep loan rates low. Two-year note yields (UST2YR: 0.74, -0.01, -1.7%) rose 4 basis points to 0.79%. The timing and strength of the global economic recovery "are highly uncertain," he said in London. The Fed has begun a plan to buy billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities and debt sold by housing agencies including Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.71, -0.03, -4.0%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.71, -0.05, -6.6%) to lower mortgage rates and spur growth in the housing market. He also said it may expand its program to buy asset-backed securities, which pool things like car loans and credit card debt. More aid to the banking system would be needed to foster an economic recovery, Bernanke said.

[Ghost Dog]

67. We're Borrowing Like Mad. Can the U.S. Pay It Back?

I'm not sure if this was covered in the Weekend edition, but it seems appropriate here:

In its battle against the financial crisis, the U.S. government has extended its full faith and credit to an ever-growing swath of the private sector: first homeowners, then banks, now car companies. Soon, President-elect Barack Obama will put the government credit card to work with a massive fiscal boost for the economy. Necessary as these steps are, they raise a worry of their own: Can the United States pay the money back?

The notion seems absurd: Banana republics default, not the world's biggest, richest economy, right? The United States has unparalleled wealth, a stable legal tradition, responsible macroeconomic policies and a top-notch, triple-A credit rating. U.S. Treasury bonds are routinely called "risk-free," and the United States has the unique privilege of borrowing in the currency that other countries like to hold as foreign-exchange reserves.

Yes, default is unlikely. But it is no longer unthinkable. Thanks to the advent of credit derivatives -- financial contracts that allow investors to speculate on or protect against default -- we can now observe how likely global markets think it is that Uncle Sam will renege on America's mounting debts. Last week, markets pegged the probability of a U.S. default at 6 percent over the next 10 years, compared with just 1 percent a year ago. For technical reasons, this is not a precise reading of investors' views. Nonetheless, the trend is real, and it is grounded in some pretty fundamental concerns.

The most important is the coming surge in the federal debt. At the end of the last fiscal year, in September, the total public debt held by the American people (excluding debt issued to the Social Security Trust Fund or held by the Federal Reserve) stood at $5.8 trillion, or 41 percent of gross domestic product -- about what the debt-to-GDP ratio has averaged since 1956. But the Congressional Budget Office projects deficits of $1.9 trillion over the next two years. Add almost $800 billion of stimulus spending, and U.S. debt soars to 60 percent of GDP by 2010 -- the highest level since the early 1950s, when the nation was working off its World War II and Korean War debts.

The other major cause for concern is that the federal government has taken on massive "contingent liabilities" -- loans and guarantees that don't become actual costs until the borrower defaults and the federal guarantee has to be honored. For example, Washington has purchased $45 billion of preferred stock of Citigroup but has also agreed to backstop up to about $240 billion of its losses. Bianco Research, a Chicago financial research firm, puts the total of such contingent liabilities (as of Dec. 29) at more than $8 trillion. The U.S. government won't shell out anything close to that, of course; it may not pay out any money and might even turn a profit. But the worse the economy gets, the more likely it is that some of those contingent liabilities will become actual liabilities.

How unprecedented would default be? The United States has never failed to repay a debt in its history. But it has twice altered the repayment terms, notes a study by Carmen M. Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth S. Rogoff of Harvard University. In 1790, when the infant republic took over the states' colonial-era debts, it deferred some interest for 10 years. A more pertinent case occurred during the Great Depression. In 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt devalued the dollar by 41 percent against gold. This helped end the vicious cycle of bank failures, deflation and default that had worsened the economic downturn, but it created another dilemma. Since the Civil War, borrowers in the United States, including the government, had routinely issued bonds that allowed the holder to demand repayment in gold or its dollar equivalent, based on the price of gold when the bond was issued. Devaluation would have dramatically raised, in dollar terms, the burden of repayment. So in 1933, Congress repealed the gold clause, a decision the Supreme Court upheld in 1935.

Reinhart argues that these episodes show that there are many forms of default other than the outright failure to redeem a bond. She thinks it exceedingly unlikely that the United States would ever default on its Treasury debt but says that a default is more likely to happen on the "periphery": A state government or a federally backed entity might renege. Reinhart notes that Washington has issued a lot of guarantees recently, such as the Treasury Department's declaration that it "effectively" backs the debts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Future governments could balk at honoring those guarantees.

Now, one reason the United States should not have to default is that, in a pinch, it can print the money it needs to pay off its debt. In practice, it would not literally print dollar bills; rather, the Federal Reserve would purchase its bonds. Still, the effect is the same: The Fed, by "monetizing" government debt, would create vast new supplies of dollars to chase the same goods and services and thus also create inflation. This money-printing option is not available to countries that issue debt payable in foreign currencies or to countries that have adopted the euro, which is controlled by the independent European Central Bank.

/... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/09/AR2009010902325_pf.html

[UpInArms]

24. Cummins to lay off 800 more workers

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/CORRECT-Cummins-lay-off-800/story.aspx?guid=%7B6A27A874%2DBE7B%2D45D5%2D8016%2D0BDDE2F0D093%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Cummins Engine Company Inc. (CMI: 26.18, -2.15, -7.6%) said Tuesday it plans to cut 800 jobs by the end of February. The Columbus, Ind. maker of fuel systems and controls will also reduce executive salaries by 10% this year and freeze other wages. Combined with its previous actions taken in December, Cummins will have reduced its professional workforce by more than 1,400 people or 10%. (Corrects spelling of company.)

[ozymandius]

28. Reminder: there's a new pool

The next pool calls for your prediction on where the Dow will be on Bush's last day and minute, 1/20/09, at 11:59am.

I am still eeking guidance out of my Ouija Boar and Magic-8 Ball. So far I have a 'Yes' from the board and 'ask again later' from the ball.

Friday by the close is the deadline for submitting your target number.

Have fun! :hi:

- Oh, the one closest to the Dow's average may win a copy of the Constitution, lovingly taped together after years of repeatedly getting jammed in the shredder.

[radfringe]

36. I checked the tea leaves - $8,243.74

:evilgrin:

[Hugin]

39. Okay, I want two entries... On the up-side: 8837.94 and on the down-side: 8158.10

:dilemma:

That's what my Simulacrum says.

We can always hope for a 'Ding! Dong! The Bush is gone rally!' However, I think a move of more than 400 or 500 points
is beyond our collective means at the moment.

[Roland99]

41. Are we talking like right when Obama takes the oath?

[Hugin]

43. From what I understand, yes.

That is if the Markets are open on the 19th.

11:59 ET.

Maybe that is why Ozy wants to close it at Market close on Friday.

[AnneD]

46. There's nothing worse....

than a busy signal when you are trying to contact the spirits. Jimmy the Greek has been standing me up lately. I guess he is busy with the SuperBowl.

[Ghost Dog]

60. I'll play Cassandra and predict $7,970

on account of earnings season and machiavellian/straussian machinations.

[ozymandius]

33. The Terrible Lessons of TARP

(generously excerpted from The Big Picture)

Let’s take a quick look at some of the shortcomings and misfires the TARP has yielded:

1. No Strategic Plan: What was the original purpose of the TARP? Its hard to say, other than it was of the greatest importance it be passed with minimum debate and even less information. Without stated objectives, its difficult to evaluate whether it is achieving those goals.

2. Methods and Tactics: By what method was the TARP to be implemented? Buy distressed assets? Recapitalize the banks? Rescue foreclosed homeowners? Stimulate the ecconomy? The constantly morphing objectives make it hard to take the original claims very seriously.

3. No Triage: There seemed to be no evaluative method in determining which banks should be saved and which should be put down. If the goal was to strengthen the financial sector, then the approach is to help those that can be strengthened, and have an orderly liquidation of those that cannot. Merely throwing money at weak and dying banks is no long term strategy.

4. Wasting Taxpayer Monies: Why did private investors like Warren Buffett get so much of a better deal than Uncle Sam? Its clear to me that both Treasury and the Fed lack the expertise to negotiate these investments. Instead, set up a matching investment. Let those in the private sector with the expertise to do so make substantial arms-length investments, with the the US matching ( at 10 or even 20X) on the same terms.

5. Transparency, Accountability, Responsibility: How monies have been spent by the Treasury department (and Fed) should be a textbook example of government accoutnability and transparency. Its not, and there is no good reason why. The Fed is w\even worse, refusing to release any details, which has led to lawsuits being filed by Bloomberg and Fox News to get the specific public information.

6. Evaluating Progress: All major programs should have some method of evaluating if they are achieving their goals. This is missing from the TARP, and its why so many people have no idea if it has been successful or not.

7. Moral Hazard: Why are we rewarding companies that were poorly managed, reckless money losers? All of the TARP recipients should have anyone senior management associated with the bad investments fired; bonuses suspended, shareholders wiped out. How are these firms paying dividends with government money? Where are the clawbacks of bonuses from Stan O’Neill, Angelo Mozilo, Chcuk Prince? That the people responsible for the mess are even remotely profiting from it is simply unconscionable.

As bad as the $700 plus billion expnditures have been, the real damage lay in the future. When in doubt, traders will go bigger and more reckless than ever before. That is the terrible lessons of the TARP: Make sure you screw up big enough to get the taxpayer to rescue you . . .

[ozymandius]

34. Catch everyone later.

Please have a nice day, folks. Time for me to head to the classroom.

ozymandius :hi:

[Hugin]

37. Have a good one, Ozy!

:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

47. Martin Weiss: Last Nail in the Coffin

Last Nail in the Coffin

by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 01-12-09
Martin D. Weiss, Ph. D.

The government has just released one of the most shocking federal budget reports of all time.

Even if you overlook the gaping holes in their economic assumptions, it’s obvious the federal deficit is going to deliver a punch below the belt of the economy.

And once you unveil the shaky assumptions, it’s equally obvious the deficit could be the last nail in its coffin.

First, Look at the Government’s Own Shocking Numbers!
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that …

* The 2009 federal deficit will be $1.186 trillion! Even after adjusting for inflation, that’s more than the combined cost of the Vietnam War ($698 billion) and the Korean War ($454 billion) … 4.6 times more than the entire S&L bailout of the 1980s … and 5.5 times larger than the Louisiana Purchase:

more...

Second, Take a Closer Look At Their Assumptions!
more...

Third, Consider the Inevitable Consequences!
more...

Fourth, Don’t Forget the Big Impact This Can Have on You!
The official budget estimates are sending you the same message I’ve been giving you: You must brace yourself for America’s Second Great Depression.
more...

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/last-nail-in-the-coffin-29223

[DemReadingDU]

51. Martenson: The crisis explained in one chart: Debt-to-GDP

1/13/09
If I was ever given just one chart, just one piece of data, to make the case that we were on an unsustainable path that had a date with a long period of contraction and economic hardship, it would be this one.



(note sometimes this chart doesn't appear in DU :shrug:
see chart also at the link for the article)
Figure 1: This chart compares total debt (or “credit”) in the U.S. to GDP (or Gross Domestic Product) on a percentage basis. Current total credit-market debt stands at more than 340 percent of total GDP.


As we can see on this chart, the last time debts got even remotely close to current levels was back in the early 1930s, and that bears a bit of explanation. The debt-to-GDP ratio back then didn’t start to climb until after 1929 (blue arrow), because debts remained relatively fixed in size, while it was the GDP that fell away from under the debts. With the exception of the Great Depression anomaly, our country always held less than 200 percent of our GDP in debt (green circle). In 1985 we violated that barrier and have never looked back.

What does this chart tell me? It says that what each of us knows to be “just how the economy works” is really a historically unusual experiment with debt that is barely 25 years old. In the sweep of economic history, this barely qualifies as a blink.

It says, if you listen carefully enough, that all of our global economic growth has been fictitious. An illusion of debt.

Consider that debt had most recently been growing at a rate six times faster than the underlying GDP and you’ll begin to appreciate just how bogus the recent “growth” really was.

Here's an example. Consider two families living side by side. Each is earning $50,000/year. At our first “GDP snapshot” of these two families we find that each has a GDP of $50k. But the next year one of the families goes out and buys an additional $50k of goods and services for itself using a combination of auto loans, credit cards, student loans, and a home equity line of credit (HELOC).

At our second “GDP snapshot” one family is still mired in a $50k GDP but the other has undergone an exciting 100% growth in their economy and is now sporting a GDP of $100k.

But the underlying reality is that each family still has $50k of earning power. The measurement itself introduced a fallacy by neglecting to factor out the use of credit when measuring “growth”. That is exactly analogous to the US GDP situation and explains why the US, and much of the world, is now in for a very painful adjustment process.

Debt-to-GDP for family #2 assures that they will be living under the strain of paying down those loans for years to come. Time spent living beyond one’s means necessitates a future period of living below one’s means.

And this is why “unlocking the credit markets” is pure fiction.

Nothing needs to be unlocked. What we need is to recognize the vast damage that we did to ourselves as we elevated and then clung to a set of falsehoods.

The interesting part, as is always true of every bubble, is looking back and wondering how it is that we ever believed these falsehoods.

* It never made sense that one country could consume wildly beyond its production forever.
* One cannot borrow and consume one’s way to greater prosperity.
* It is not possible for an economy to be 80% service based, at least not sustainably.

A point I made in the Crash Course chapter on debt, which was that assets are variable but debts are fixed, can be broadened to include the claim that incomes are variable but debts are fixed.

That same spike in debt-to-GDP that weighed down the US during the great depression is now set to vault to some new stratospheric record of possibly 500% or 600% or more.

And the choices for reversing this ratio to a manageable level, notwithstanding Paulson’s confusing alphabet soup array of government bailout programs, are quite limited.

1. Pay the debts down
2. Default on them
3. Inflate them away

That’s it. Those are all the options. All you have to do is decide which is the most likely outcome and position your life and investments accordingly.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/crisis-explained-one-chart-debt-gdp/11570


edit to add:

The Crash Course, What is it?
The Crash Course seeks to provide you with a baseline understanding of the economy, energy, environment so that you can better appreciate the risks that we all face. This is a series of 20 video chapters, each video is between 3 and 18 minutes in length, meaning that all 20 chapters should take about 3 hours, but they need not be watched all at the same time. Try an hour a day for 3 days.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse


About Chris Martenson, PhD.
Executive summary: Father of three young children; author; obsessive financial observer; trained as a scientist; experienced in business; has made profound changes in his lifestyle because of what he sees coming.
In his bio, Martenson goes into detail how he arrived at his conclusions and opinions, and why he's dedicated to communicating them via this excellent series of videos and additional articles.
Please click the link to read the rest of his bio...
http://www.chrismartenson.com/about

[Demeter]

54. Blair reappears on shortlist to head EU (Quelle Horror!)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ba0753fe-e004-11dd-9ee9-000077b07658.html

By Tony Barber in Brussels

Published: January 11 2009 17:48 | Last updated: January 11 2009 17:48

Tony Blair, the former UK prime minister, is re-emerging as a possible choice to be the European Union’s first full-time president after four momentous crises reinforced the argument for having a high-profile international personality in the job.

According to EU officials and diplomats, the impressive performance of Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, during his six-month spell in charge of the EU last year has strengthened the hand of those who say a big name should guide the 27-nation bloc....


BIG NAME? WHY? IS COMPETENCE TOO MUCH TO ASK FOR? HOW ABOUT ETHICS? HOW ABOUT BRAINS?

[Demeter]

55. Half of Madoff loss borne by foreigners

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8ed137ac-e015-11dd-9ee9-000077b07658.html

By Joanna Chung in New York



Roughly half the estimated losses from Bernard Madoff’s alleged $50bn “Ponzi” are being borne by non-US investors, underscoring the global scope of the carnage.

While most of the small individual investors appear to be in the US where Mr Madoff’s main business was based, some of the biggest by dollar amount were from abroad, according to an analysis of the available data.

They range from the RMF division of London’s Man Group, the world’s largest listed hedge fund, to Spain’s Banco Santander, the biggest bank in the eurozone, and Austria’s Bank Medici.

Leading banks from Britain, France and Japan have admitted in recent weeks to lending billions of dollars to funds to gear up their investments with Mr Madoff, while others created special products to help investors buy in, which provided a degree of protection.

Wealthy investors from Switzerland, Austria and Israel had company in the US, where the Wilpon family, the owners of the New York Mets baseball team, and actors Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgwick were among the high-profile victims.

The list has also grown to include scores of institutions. Charities, universities, pension funds – such as the West Palm Beach Police Pension Fund in Florida – and labour unions, including those representing carpenters, plumbers and electricians in upstate New York, have revealed exposures...

[Demeter]

56. Citigroup ditches ‘universal banking’

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e03c20ba-e197-11dd-afa0-0000779fd2ac.html

By Francesco Guerrera in New York

Published: January 13 2009 17:43 | Last updated: January 13 2009 18:38

Citigroup is to break itself up by separating a large portion of its troubled investment bank and higher-risk US consumer finance businesses from its global commercial banking operations in a dramatic attempt to ensure its survival.

The move would essentially dismantle the 1998 merger between John Reed’s Citicorp and Sandy Weill’s Travelers that created Citigroup. The new-look Citi would be similar to the old-style Citicorp: a global commercial and retail bank. The new structure would no longer include some of the risky investment banking and consumer finance businesses, including subprime mortgages, that were part of the old Travelers.

People close to the situation said Vikram Pandit, the chief executive, had reversed his previous backing for Citi’s financial supermarket structure. Bankers said that the unwanted parts could be eventually spun off into a wholly separate entity but, until then, it was likely to operate as an arms-length unit of Citi, in an attempt to isolate badly-performing businesses and assets.

It would also limit its reach in the US, where Citi never had the extensive branch network of rivals such as Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Citi has been under pressure from the US government to raise capital and streamline its diverse portfolio after being rescued with a $300bn bail-out by the authorities in November. The decision by Citi, which has suffered more than $50bn in credit-related losses and is expected to report another huge loss next week in its fourth quarter results, will have repercussions for the global financial industry

US rivals such as JPMorgan, BofA and Wells Fargo could take advantage of Citi’s exit from consumer finance businesses while banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley could benefit from its move away from many investment banking operations...


They said that a draft plan to the overhaul included placing Citi’s troubled mortgage-related assets, its specialist US consumer finance businesses CitiFinancial and the insurance broker Primerica into the bad bank. Other parts of the investment bank, the former Salomon Brothers, could also be included in the non-core unit.

The core businesses are likely to include Citi’s commercial operations around the world including large retail banks such as Mexico’s Banamex, as well as its profitable transaction services business and the private bank.

Smith Barney, Citi’s US brokerage business, is to be spun off into a joint venture controlled by Morgan Stanley, which was set to be announced on Tuesday.

[Hugin]

65. They're trying the 'bad bank' 'good bank' thing again?

Who else was it that tried that foolishness? I know somebody did. Can't remember who though.

[Demeter]

72. To My Knowledge, Nobody Has Pulled It Off, Although There's Been Lots of Talk

Looks like they are all bad, all the way through.

[antigop]

58. Will Levin release the TARP contracts to the public? (I'll bet not.)

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/01/levin_my_instinct_would_be_to_release_tarp_contrac.php

After Carl Levin (D-MI), chairman of the Senate subcommittee on investigations, announced yesterday that he is getting copies of the contracts for companies receiving bailout money under the TARP program, we were thrilled to finally see what terms the government insisted on for taxpayer funds. But this morning in the New York Times, a Levin aide was quoted as saying that his office would not publicly release the contracts. And a Levin spokeswoman told TPMmuckraker the same thing in an email.

[Danascot]

62. The Ascent of Money on PBS Tonight

SMW denizens may be interested in catching The Ascent of Money tonight on PBS, at 8 pm or 9 pm in most places.

One week before a new President who campaigned on a promise to fix the economy takes office, public media provider WNET.ORG is putting the meaning of money into context – where it came from, where it goes, and why it has always been (and always will be) the fulcrum of civilization. THE ASCENT OF MONEY, a two-hour documentary based on the newly-released book The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World (Penguin Group USA), will premiere on Tuesday, January 13 at 9 p.m. (ET) on PBS (check local listings). The film is written and presented by the bestselling author, economist, historian, and Harvard professor Niall Ferguson. An expanded, four-hour version of THE ASCENT OF MONEY will air on PBS later in 2009.

In THE ASCENT OF MONEY, Ferguson – whose series War of the World garnered critical attention last summer – traces the evolution of money and demonstrates that financial history is the essential back-story behind all history. “Everyone needs to understand the complex history of money and our relationship to it,” he says. “By learning how societies have continually created and survived financial crises, we can find solid solutions to today’s worldwide economic emergency.” As he traverses historic financial hot spots around the world, Ferguson illuminates fundamental economic concepts and speaks with leading experts in the financial world.

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/

[DemReadingDU]

68. Thanks, sounds interesting

[Ghost Dog]

64. Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 5:42PM GMT 13 Jan 2009

"They have already hit zero," said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. "We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmit­igated disaster."

Shipping journal Lloyd's List said brokers in Singapore are now waiving fees for containers travelling from South China, charging only for the minimal "bunker" costs. Container fees from North Asia have dropped $200, taking them below operating cost.

Industry sources said they have never seen rates fall so low. "This is a whole new ball game," said one trader.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which measures freight rates for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grains crashed several months ago, falling 96pc. The BDI – though a useful early-warning index – is highly volatile and exaggerates apparent ups and downs in trade. However, the latest phase of the shipping crisis is different. It has spread to core trade of finished industrial goods, the lifeblood of the world economy.

Trade data from Asia's export tigers has been disastrous over recent weeks, reflecting the collapse in US, UK and European markets.

Korea's exports fell 30pc in January compared to a year earlier. Exports have slumped 42pc in Taiwan and 27pc in Japan, according to the most recent monthly data. Even China has now started to see an outright contraction in shipments, led by steel, electronics and textiles.

A report by ING yesterday said shipping activity at US ports has suddenly dived. Outbound traffic from Long Beach and Los Angeles, America's two top ports, has fallen by 18pc year-on-year, a far more serious decline than anything seen in recent recessions.

"This is no regular cycle slowdown, but a complete collapse in foreign demand," said Lindsay Coburn, ING's trade consultant.

Idle ships are now stretched in rows outside Singapore's harbour, creating an eerie silhouette like a vast naval fleet at anchor. Shipping experts note the number of vessels moving around seem unusually high in the water, indicating low cargoes.

It became difficult for the shippers to obtain routine letters of credit at the height of financial crisis over the autumn, causing goods to pile up at ports even though there was a willing buyer at the other end. Analysts say this problem has been resolved, but the shipping industry has since been swamped by the global trade contraction.

The World Bank caused shockwaves with a warning last month that global trade may decline this year for the first time since the Second World War. This appears increasingly certain with each new batch of data.

Mr de Trenck predicts Asian trade to the US will fall 7pc this year. To Europe he estimates a drop of 9pc – possibly 12pc. Trade flows grow 8pc in an average year.

He said it was "illogical" for shippers to offer zero rates, but they do whatever they can to survive in a highly cyclical market.

Offering slots for free is akin to an airline giving away spare seats for nothing in the hope of making something from meals and fees.

/. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4229198/Shipping-rates-hit-zero-as-trade-sinks.html

[ozymandius]

69. So... only momentum is carrying this transports industry.

Anything for a buck, in other words, or a yen or a luan...

[ozymandius]

70. The End.

Dow 8,448.56 Down 25.41 (0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,546.46 Up 7.67 (0.50%)
S&P 500 871.79 Up 1.53 (0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 2.297% Down 0.012
NYSE Volume 5,685,915,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,013,453,000

4:30 pm : Stocks finished a choppy session with mixed results amid continued uncertainty in the broader market.

Financials were able to register strong gains after receiving some relief this session. The sector advanced 1.4% after finishing lower in each of the four prior sessions. Financials are down 12.6% through the last five sessions, though.

Recent selling efforts in the sector follow revived concerns regarding the health of financial institutions and the losses that may be lurking on their balance sheets. Steep losses could lead to further capital raises, which would likely dilute existing shareholders.

To help ensure a healthy financial system, Fed Chairman Bernanke stated that more capital injections and guarantees may become necessary.

Separately, Fed Vice Chairman Kohn stated TARP funds could be used in modifying large numbers of troubled mortgages, which would help protect lenders from losses associated with failed mortgages. Kohn stated TARP funds could also help restart key credit markets.

Repairing lending and credit markets remain key in stimulating broader economic conditions. With macro conditions still bleak, expectations are low this earnings season.

A collective batch of warnings during recent weeks has also undercut expectations. Most recently, NVIDIA (NVDA 4.65, +0.04) slashed its fourth quarter revenue guidance due to weak demand in end markets. NVIDIA's cut was largely expected, though, so its stock was able to resist selling pressure.

Meanwhile, Dow component Alcoa (AA 9.55, -0.51) succumbed to continued selling pressure. Analysts expected Alcoa to post a loss of $0.10 per share after the company recently indicated it would cut production and restructure itself amid slumping demand. Alcoa disappointed, though, by reporting a loss of $0.28 per share.

Energy stocks were able outperform the broader market for virtually the entire session. The sector closed 2.2% higher, riding a 0.8% advance in crude prices. Crude oil futures closed at $37.90 per barrel.

Crude prices gyrated for the entire session. They had been up as much as 5.1% at its session high, and down as much as 4.0% at its session low.

Stocks also had a choppy session. They had been up as much as 0.8%, and down as much as 1.0% before finishing with mixed results.

The lack of direction in the broader market reflects continued uncertainty among market participants. With dour economic data on tap and profits still a point of concern, investors do not appear ready to jump back into the stock market.DJ30 -25.41 NASDAQ +7.67 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +1.1% SP400 +1.1% SP500 +1.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/1.99 bln/1233 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1648/1.31 bln/1434

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

71. 3½ more...

[Festivito]

73. Debt: 01/09/2009 10,609,758,567,607.17 (UP 1,433,244,434.60) (Little change.)

(Very little movement lately.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,290,327,140,825.48 + 4,319,431,426,781.69
DOWN 568,123,287.98 + UP 2,001,367,722.58

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is -2,107,302,718.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be -1,545,355,326.53.
The average for the last 31 days would be -1,495,505,154.71.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 69 reports in 101 days of FY2009 averaging 8.48B$ per report, 5.79B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 11 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 10.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/09/2009 10,609,758,567,607.10 GWB (UP 4,881,562,771,425.53 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 585,033,670,694.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---
12/26/2008 -036,328,594,643.92 -
12/29/2008 -000,737,189,520.41 --- Mon
12/30/2008 +000,055,730,362.68 ------------*******
12/31/2008 +046,553,280,763.13 ------------**********
01/02/2009 -049,252,670,832.20 -
01/05/2009 -000,912,747,082.07 --- Mon
01/06/2009 -000,344,326,906.71 ---
01/07/2009 -000,314,429,077.84 ---
01/08/2009 -027,599,431,464.26 -
01/09/2009 -000,568,123,287.98 ---

-128,330,886,944.72 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $945,126,764,348.10 in last 113 days.
That's 945B$ in 113 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 93% of that highest year ever only in 113 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 113 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3685935&mesg_id=3685954

[Festivito]

74. Debt: 01/12/2009 10,609,790,681,008.44 (UP 32,113,401.27) (Very little change.)

(Little movement lately.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,289,228,157,982.89 + 4,320,562,523,025.55
DOWN 1,098,982,842.59 + UP 1,131,096,243.86

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 636,097,154.07.
The average for the last 30 days would be 424,064,769.38.
The average for the last 31 days would be 410,385,260.69.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 70 reports in 104 days of FY2009 averaging 8.36B$ per report, 5.63B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 8 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 10.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/12/2009 10,609,790,681,008.40 GWB (UP 4,881,594,884,826.83 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 585,065,784,096.00 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---
12/26/2008 -036,328,594,643.92 -
12/29/2008 -000,737,189,520.41 --- Mon
12/30/2008 +000,055,730,362.68 ------------*******
12/31/2008 +046,553,280,763.13 ------------**********
01/02/2009 -049,252,670,832.20 -
01/05/2009 -000,912,747,082.07 --- Mon
01/06/2009 -000,344,326,906.71 ---
01/07/2009 -000,314,429,077.84 ---
01/08/2009 -027,599,431,464.26 -
01/09/2009 -000,568,123,287.98 ---
01/12/2009 -001,098,982,842.59 -- Mon

-71,551,944,736.21 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $945,158,877,749.37 in last 116 days.
That's 945B$ in 116 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 93% of that highest year ever only in 116 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 116 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3687602&mesg_id=3689067