STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 12 April

[ozymandius]

Monday April 12, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 286
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 122 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 175 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 389
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 871
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 8, 2004

Dow... 10,442.03 -38.12 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq... 2,052.88 +2.64 (+0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,139.32 -1.21 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.20% +0.03 (+0.72%)
Gold future... 420.70 -3.00 (-0.71%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Speculative Issues in a Speculative Market

“The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday!” That was the title of my Market Wrap-Up four weeks ago. Following that article, I was quoted in the same breath as Richard Russell, and the “Comstock Boys”, people for whom I have the utmost respect and admiration. I felt like a genius then. Today, based on a recent phone call from my friend Dave, I’m an idiot. The recent stock market action, consisting of a lower low and a heap of panic buying, although impressive, was not healthy. At the same time those fundamental market commentators painted as “perma-bears” are being ridiculed in some circles. That’s the way it has always been. The stock market is designed to fool most of the people. Unlike the Discovery Channel, in the stock market, avoidance of peril usually comes from not running with the herd. Has this changed?

I don’t think so. <cut>

Broadening Patterns Suggest an “Excitedly Active Public”

Recently, after the bull run of almost 1-1/2 years beginning in October 2002, there has been the appearance of broadening formations on the charts of some key leading stocks and indices. Although after last week’s rally, public optimism is at a high level, and those fundamentally bearish on the market are being dismissed as “perma-bears”. However, there are some indicators that soon reality will find its way to the stock market. This is shown in the appearance of several bearish “Broadening Top” patterns. <cut>

Is There a Greenspan Put? – Chart Suggests, “Not Necessarily”

It seems to be almost common knowledge that the Fed will do whatever it takes to levitate the stock market because this is a presidential election year. This is known as the Greenspan Put. The Greenspan Put is on the lips of practically everyone that works in money management and the financial media. This statement is also ringing in offices, health clubs, the mall and coffee shops in suburbia. It’s difficult for me to imagine how the overwhelming majority can be so right on an issue about the stock market! Many of those exposing the Greenspan Put, are citing historical trends in the stock market. But is there such a historic precedent? Below is a Nasdaq chart covering the last three presidential election cycles. Note the market action between the Blue and Red vertical lines, corresponding to January 1 to November during presidential election years.

<cut>
Of the last three presidential election cycles, the market went lower in two of them. Greenspan was the Fed Chairman through the last three presidential election cycles, yet the market went down during the 2000 election, which resulted in George W. Bush in office. The stock market also went down during the 1992 campaign to try to reelect George Bush senior. Senior was defeated and Bill Clinton took his first term in 1993. The market rallied in the 1996 election year when Bill Clinton defeated republican Bob Dole. So is there a Greenspan Put now? The charts do not support that there is a Greenspan Put. Yet why does the Greenspan Put seem to be on everybody’s lips? And why does it seem that everyone is thinking the same thing at the same time?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

2. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 88.99 Change -0.03 (-0.03%)

Settle 89.02 Settle Time 23:30
Open 88.99 Previous Close 89.02
High 89.10 Low 88.80


Forex - US dollar steady vs yen in Singapore; hostage concerns offset data
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1081754619-9e32d306-06593

SINGAPORE (AFX-ASIA) - The US dollar was rangebound against the yen in afternoon trade here as many markets were closed for a holiday, with the Japanese unit weighed down by concerns over the fate of Japanese hostages in Iraq despite the recent slew of strong economic data, dealers said

snip>

IDEAGlobal currency strategist Malcolm Tan said market participants are not aggressively trading the yen amid uncertainties as to what will happen to the three Japanese hostages held by insurgents in Iraq. Despite a slew of yen-positive economic data from Japan recently, including today's current account surplus data for February and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) more upbeat assessment of the economy, Tan said the yen is weighed down by news of the Japanese civilians' kidnapping in Iraq

snip>

Japan's Ministry of Finance announced earlier today that its current account surplus in February increased 46.2 pct from a year earlier to a record 2.16 trln yen, buoyed by brisk exports

The Bank of Japan had also upgraded its economic assessment of Japan in its April report last Friday, saying that the export-led recovery is beginning to have a spill-over impact on domestic demand

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

[Moderator]

12. 54anickel

Per DU copyright rules
please post only four
paragraphs from the
news source.


Thank you.

DU Moderator

[54anickel]

3. U.S. stocks seen opening slightly up, earnings eyed

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/04/12/rtr1328706.html

NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are poised to open slightly higher on Monday, as investors anticipate the start of the quarterly earnings season for further confirmation of the pace and staying power of the economic recovery.

Earnings are expected to dictate the course of stocks this week, as corporate America kicks off one of the busiest weeks in the quarterly reporting season. Roughly 70 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index are set to post results this week.

Though most investors are expecting strong profits, they are also expected to keep a wary eye on events unfolding in Iraq, where mounting violence has fed uncertainty and kept a lid on positive sentiment.

Companies due to report results before the open include media companies Gannet Co. Inc. (nyse: GCI - news - people) and New York Times Co. (nyse: NYT - news - people), and Fastenal Co. (nasdaq: FAST - news - people), a nuts and bolts distributor.

"It looks like we're facing an uneventful open. Europe was closed, and the only major market open was Japan," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.

snip>

In economic readings, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City releases its March manufacturing survey at 11:00 a.m. EDT(1500 GMT). Later, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago issues its Midwest Manufacturing Index for February at 12:00 p.m. EDT(1600 GMT).

more...

[54anickel]

4. Wal-Mart starts to pay the price

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/04/12/EDGGG5VKGV1.DTL

WHEN IT COMES TO engineering profits, Wal-Mart has no peer. But when it comes to playing politics, the mighty retail giant is strictly five-and- dime.

That is not to say that the world's largest corporation is cheap when it is trying to bully its way into another targeted community. Wal-Mart has shown a propensity to throw the kind of money at cities it plans to invade that its employees rarely see. But its campaign tactics are shamelessly small-town -- a legacy, perhaps, of its humble beginnings in Bentonville, Ark.

Last week, yet another community fought back against Wal-Mart's attempt to put one of its aircraft-carrier-sized superstores within its borders. But the company's crushing defeat in Inglewood (Los Angeles County) had an unfamiliar spin. If company officials can't convince an overwhelmingly working- class city in need of jobs and inexpensive goods of the benefits of their store's arrival, how can they persuade other towns that have become increasingly leery of Wal-Mart's looming presence?

It certainly won't be through the company's governmental affairs division. When Inglewood city officials rejected Wal-Mart's bid to build another 200, 000- square-foot version of discount shopping heaven, the company decided to make an end run and instead took the retailer's case directly to the voters, who it thought would be lined up in the express line waiting to cash in on the company's largesse. But it didn't help that the corporation's bruising style of business also extended to its politics -- the ballot measure would have allowed the company to bypass local controls in Inglewood on everything from environmental regulation to zoning.

In other words, the company overreached. Imagine: Wal-Mart trying too hard to crush the competition.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning Marketeers!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

My son and I are about out the door for the day. But with futures looking so bright, I had to get a short word in - hoping that everyone earns a few pennies at the casino.

I may have a chance to drop in later in the day. Thanks to all who continue to contribute to this thread!

best to you all,

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

6. Bye Ozy,

Hope to see you drop back later. :hi:

[54anickel]

7. China posts 8.4 billion dollar trade deficit in first quarter

BEIJING: China's trade deficit widened to 8.4 billion dollars in the first quarter as imports soared, fueled by the country's growing appetite for raw materials and energy to feed its booming economy.

The country reported a 540 million dollar deficit for March, after a whooping 7.8 billion dollar deficit in February, the highest monthly deficit in more than a decade, the People's Daily reported, citing customs figures.

snip>

Imports surged 42 percent year-on-year in the first quarter to 124.14 billion dollars and were up nearly 43 percent to 46.4 billion dollars in March, on the back of higher imports of iron ore, crude oil, soybeans and edible oil, state press reports said, without giving a breakdown.

snip>

Machinery and electronic products exports amounted to 63 billion dollars, accounting for 55 percent of total exports during the quarter, with textile exports also up strongly, the report said.

Many analysts have been expecting China to swing into deficit this year or at least see a significant cut in its trade surplus due to rising oil and other raw material imports and prices, weaker export growth and a slowdown in foreign investment, one of the main drivers of export growth.

The country reported a record trade surplus of 30 billion dollars in 2002 but that fell to 25.5 billion dollars last year.

Beijing has come under pressure from its trade partners over its surpluses, especially from the United States, which ran a 124 billion dollar trade deficit with China in 2003, rising from 102 billion dollars in 2002.

Washington claims China keeps its currency artificially low to boost the export competitiveness of its companies and has been calling for a yuan revaluation.

Now, the rising deficit might ease pressure on the government and strengthen the position of Vice-Premier Wu Yi when she meets US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick in Washington next week.

[54anickel]

8. 9:53 numbers and blather

Dow 10,486.17 +44.14 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,059.83 +6.95 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,143.05 +3.73 (+0.33%)
30-yr Bond 5.056% +0.021

NYSE Volume 102,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 191,723,000

9:45AM: In tune with futures indications, the cash market is off to a higher open... With the Easter weekend safely behind, some of the geopolitical risk premium that got priced in ahead of the holiday is now getting unwound... Supporting the favorable bias is anticipation ahead of the Q1 earnings season, which got underway last week... The First Call consensus is for earnings growth of 20% in the S&P 500... Please see The Big Picture column for more perspective on Briefing.com's expectations for the earnings season... There were no economic reports this morning...

[54anickel]

9. Ewww, check out these big sudden large drops in the PMs. De-hedging?

Shorts covering, or something else going on? :shrug:


GOLD
?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=f&w=5&a=2&v=s


SILVER
?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&t=f&w=5&a=2&v=s


Palladium
?s=FOREX_XPDUSDO&t=f&w=5&a=2&v=s


And look at Platinum taking off! Up over $18

?s=FOREX_XPTUSDO&t=f&w=5&a=2&v=s

[ozymandius]

10. closing numbers

DJIA 10,515.56 +73.53 +0.70%
Nasdaq 2,065.48 +12.60 +0.61%
S&P 500 1,145.20 +5.88 +0.52%
10-Year Bond 4.23% +0.03 +0.79%

Since DU was down all day - better late than never.

[54anickel]

11. A few articles I came across during the day while DU was down.

FOREX-Yen rises vs dollar, euro on robust Japan outlook
http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/funds/newswire/2004/04/12/rtr1329286.html

NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - The yen gained about 1 percent against the dollar and euro on Monday, buoyed by rising Tokyo stock prices and a generally robust outlook on Japan, analysts said.

The dollar, meanwhile, posted mild gains against the euro and Swiss franc in holiday-thinned trade, still deriving support from the blockbuster U.S. March employment numbers released early this month.

The yen's gain against the dollar was also aided by the widening of Japan's current account surplus. Trading was thin, with London closed for the Easter holiday.

"An increase in the current account surplus is inherently positive for the yen as this presents further evidence that the yen's strength against the U.S. dollar has not upset Japan's export performance," said Alex Beuzelin, senior foreign exchange market analyst at Ruesch International in Washington, DC.

"Japan's trade fundamentals remain in solid shape and that fits in nicely with the market's positive outlook on the Japanese economy, which continues to fuel strong foreign investment demand for Japanese equities," he said.


snip>

Late last week, "people were flocking into Swiss francs as a safe-haven play," said David Leaver, senior trader with Gain Capital in Warren, New Jersey. "Things didn't exactly go well this weekend (in Iraq) ... I see a geopolitical focus" for the foreign exchange market, he added.

Traders were also positioning ahead of potentially market-moving U.S. economic data, including March retail sales on Tuesday. Economists' forecasts show the headline reading up 0.6 percent, and a stronger-than-expected reading would likely lift the dollar, analysts said.

"The market is wrapping its head around ... renewed confidence in the U.S. economic recovery," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist with High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.

Since the strikingly strong U.S. employment report for March, traders have begun to perceive that "the U.S. economy has indeed turned the corner and the glass is getting more half full than half empty," said Weinberg. :eyes:

more...



Dollar loses ground to yen; euro slips
http://www.iht.com/articles/514354.html

TOKYO The dollar slipped against the yen but rose against the euro on Monday amid signs that growth in the world's biggest economy is outpacing that of Europe.

"The U.S. recovery is gathering pace, increasing optimism the Fed will drop its record-breaking low-interest-rate policy," said Kenichiro Ikezawa at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo. "That will improve sentiment on the dollar."

Trading in the currency market was slowed by market-closing holidays in Australia, Hong Kong and Europe. London is the world's most important foreign-exchange trading center

snip>

Robert Parry, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, said in a published interview that an increase in inflation could push the Fed's key interest rate to about 3.5 percent over time.

In an interview with The San Francisco Chronicle published on Sunday, Parry said inflation would probably run between 1 percent and 1.5 percent for the next year.

snip>

That interest rate differential has made some European assets relatively more attractive than U.S. assets, and helped to lift the euro.

Traders have moved forward their expectations for the Fed to raise its target interest rate after an employment report on April 2 showed that the U.S. economy had added the most jobs in almost four years last month. :eyes:

The dollar's decline against the yen came as a survey found that many investors were bullish on the Japanese currency.

Eighty percent of the 71 investors, traders and strategists surveyed from Tokyo to New York on Thursday and Friday by Bloomberg News advised buying or holding the yen against the dollar.

more...



Beijing acts again to rein in inflation
http://www.iht.com/articles/514370.html

Central bank moves to slow runaway growth in lending

HONG KONG China's central bank has tightened monetary policy for the second time in less than three weeks, trying to put the brakes on ever-rising bank lending and rampant property speculation, as top Chinese officials voiced growing alarm that the economy is overheating.

"Excessive growth in the supply of credit can initiate inflation or froth in property prices, which may eventually cause bad debts and increase financial risk," the People's Bank of China, the central bank, warned in a statement on Monday.

The tightening, in the form of higher reserve requirements for banks, came as trade figures released late Sunday showed that China ran a trade deficit in March for the third month in a row.

The deficit, although modest at $540 million, makes it more likely that China will continue resisting pressure from the United States, Europe and Japan to let its currency appreciate, including during Vice President Dick Cheney's visit to Beijing on Tuesday, economists said. The deficit may also make China more reluctant to compromise in trade talks in Washington this month involving semiconductors and other goods.

snip>

"The overheating problems in some sectors have imposed pressure on coal, power, oil and transport supplies and resultingly brought about rises in prices for raw materials and other necessities, according to the meeting."

Independent economists said the Chinese government's actions were late and probably inadequate to contain rampant speculation that is starting to feed inflation, including that on goods exported to the United States. They warned that China faced a growing risk that its recent economic boom could be followed by a costly bust a development that could stir political unrest.

"The hard landing scenario likelihood is rising fast," said Andy Xie, a Morgan Stanley economist in Hong Kong. "Something bad could happen in the next three to four quarters."

Wang Xiaolu, deputy director of the National Economic Research Institute in Beijing, said that government agencies were uncertain about the seriousness of overheating, and that the latest increase in bank reserve requirements would do little to slow the economy.

snip>

China's boom has driven up worldwide prices for commodities like oil and iron ore, which China imports in huge quantities, but global prices have barely changed so far for the manufactured goods that China produces.

more...



US Treasuries slip as flight-to-quality bid unwinds
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/04/12/rtr1328863.html

NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices slipped on Monday as traders unwound a pre-holiday weekend safety bid and money shifted into the stock market, where investors generally have a greater appetite for risk.

U.S. stocks looked ready to open higher as investors hoped that the start of a quarterly earnings report season would display strong first-quarter profits and offer evidence of a sustainable economic recovery.

"Thursday was a short trading session and the market was closed on Friday so people were hesitant about getting too short," said IDEAglobal senior bond strategist Josh Stiles.

With the long weekend having passed without major incident, "the flight-to-quality bid is unwinding," Stiles said. "The expected strength in stocks is part of that flight-to-quality unwind. There's willingness to return to higher-risk assets."

Stiles said the bond market was somewhat apprehensive about U.S. retail sales and consumer price data due this week. Sales of clothing were said to be strong in March.

snip>

On Thursday, a surprising drop in new jobless claims seemed to offer more evidence that the job market was improving, a development that would tend to speed the day when the Fed would raise interest rates.

The central bank has made it clear that it would like to see several months of solid job gains before it begins to tighten monetary policy.

more...


NYMEX platinum jumps to 24-year high, silver dives
http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/funds/newswire/2004/04/12/rtr1328925.html

NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - NYMEX platinum hit a 24-year high at the open Monday as big traders ran up the market without resistance from London, where physical markets remained closed for Easter.

Gold and silver started higher, only to to see support evaporate in the illiquid conditions.

snip>

"It's a thin market and high prices just set off some stops and some additional fund buying at higher levels. It's all speculative, there certainly isn't any fundamental news out," a dealer at a precious metals refining company said, adding that platinum followed the "path of least resistance."

Demand for platinum has been strong this year as a recovering global economy has spurred jewelry and motor vehicle sales.

Plus, car makers have been buying more platinum to put in catalytic converters due to tougher regulations limiting exhaust emissions.

But speculators have taken the lead in driving precious metals higher as part of a broad rally in commodities. They have rotated between gold, silver, platinum and palladium, all of which have probed multi-year highs on the back of unprecedented fund interest in the metals sector.

snip>

According to Commitments of Traders data released by the CFTC on Friday, the net speculative long position in COMEX gold rose to a record 144,253 contracts from 125,138 contracts in the week to last Tuesday.

more...

Edit for missing links :silly: