U.S. Oct. payrolls surge by unexpected 337,000

[UpInArms]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38296.3542151273-825804985&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a surprising 337,000 in October, about double the expectation, the Labor Department reported Friday. It was the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls since March. In addition, payroll gains in August and September were revised higher by a cumulative 115,000. The unemployment rate climbed a tenth to 5.5 percent. Economists were expecting payrolls to grow by about 175,000 in October and for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.4 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Construction jobs increased by 71,000, due to cleanup efforts after four hurricanes.

WHEE!!!! And if you believe that shit, I have a great bridge to sell you!

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

1. And in other news, chocolate rations are UP! (nt)

[Strabo]

12. and in related news...

The Ministry of Plenty's forecast had estimated the output of boots for the quarter at one-hundred-and-forty-five million pairs. The actual output was given as sixty-two millions!!

[Lindsay]

2. Oh, yippee, more numbers

pulled out of some orifice or another.

Just wait until all the companies who've been holding off plant closings and such to get the Chimpenator elected cut loose. (Of course, that won't affect the government's numbers any...but the reality's gonna be killer.)

[RT_Fanatic]

15. The largest employer in our town,

Anchor Glass, called all of their workers who were scheduled to report to work and told them not to bother. They get 90 days severance pay. We're a depressed area as it is. Our community cannot overcome this blow. And this REALLY BLOWS.

:mad:

[HughBeaumont]

3. Manufacturing lost jobs again.

More temp positions in construction.

How could this be? Didn't they just announce 100,000 job cuts in October?

[flobee1kenobi]

6. more bush math

the jobs that have been eliminated mean more money available to give ceo's raises.
thats how you get good payroll numbers AND more jobless

[Yavin4]

4. Hurricane Rebuilding Contracts

That's what this number reflects. Recall we had four major hurricanes tear through the Southeast. They're rebuilding. That's what this number shows.

[KayLaw]

5. Off the top of my head

I can think of three possibilities:

1.) The numbers are accurate.

2.) Because of the Birth/Death model, these numbers actually reflect a large number of business failures.

or

3.) The numbers will be used by the Fed to justify a larger than expected increase of interest rates.

[Yavin4]

7. I Go With Number 3

These numbers may be trumped up in order to justify larger interest rate jumps, but I think that these numbers just reflect hurricane reconstruction jobs.

[Sara Beverley]

8. Unemployment limbs at the same time payrolls climb?

More voo doo and lies.

[Yavin4]

9. That Can Happen

The two numbers reflect two different surveys, household survey and a payroll survey.

[UpInArms]

10. related article: October was a catch-up month, economist Gay says

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B5618744E-5F9A-4976-B7C9-0BD316BA8603%7D&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Surprisingly strong gains of 337,000 in U.S. employment in October reflect, in part, a statistical catchup, said Robert Gay, head of global fixed income at Commerz Bank. Gay said September wasn't as weak as portrayed in the data, nor was October quite as strong. Gay said the strong data don't necessarily mean the Federal Reserve will raise rates at every meeting going forward, because "the economy still hasn't been hit with the full brunt of oil prices."

[rooboy]

11. 337000 new registrations on eBay. n/t

[durablend]

13. Temporary retail seasonal help?

Should be starting up soon, so you know this month and next month's numbers are also going to be doozies.

Too bad all those people will be back on the street come January.

(the ones in the red states can spend more time at church when that happens)

[54anickel]

14. Where is Papau today? He usually does an excellent analysis and

break down of this report. I look forward to it every month.

[papau]

19. some data :-)

payroll employ up 337,000 (71K Hurricane const)-U6 UER jumps to 9.7%


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Friday, November 5, 2004. THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: OCTOBER 2004

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 337,000 in October, and the un-
employment rate was about unchanged at 5.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Construction em-
ployment rose sharply over the month, and several service-providing indus-
tries also added jobs.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons, 8.1 million, and the unemployment
rate, 5.5 percent, were essentially unchanged from September to October. The
jobless rate has held fairly steady thus far this year and remains below its
most recent high of 6.3 percent in June 2003.

In October, the unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men
(4.9 percent), adult women (4.8 percent), teenagers (17.2 percent), whites
(4.7 percent), blacks (10.7 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (6.7 percent)--
showed little or no change over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians
was 4.8 percent in October, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2,
and A-3.)

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Total employment edged up in October to 139.8 million, and the employment-
population ratio--the proportion of the population age 16 and over with jobs--
remained at 62.3 percent. The civilian labor force rose by 367,000 over the
month to 147.9 million, and the labor force participation rate was unchanged
at 65.9 percent. (See table A-1.)

Over the year, the number of persons who held more than one job rose by
519,000 to 8.0 million, not seasonally adjusted. These multiple jobholders
represented 5.7 percent of total employment in October, compared with 5.4
percent a year earlier. (See table A-13.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

The number of persons who were marginally attached to the labor force was
1.6 million in October, about the same as a year earlier. (Data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals wanted and were available to work and
had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted
as unemployed, however, because they did not actively search for work in the
4 weeks preceding the survey. There were 429,000 discouraged workers in
October, little changed from a year earlier. Discouraged workers, a subset
of the marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically
because they believed no jobs were available for them. The other 1.2 million
marginally attached had not searched for work for reasons such as school or
family responsibilities. (See table A-13.)

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 337,000 in October to 132.0
million, seasonally adjusted. This followed job gains of 139,000 in Septem-
ber and 198,000 in August (as revised). Over the month, there was a large
job gain in construction as well as notable increases in several service-
providing industries. Since August 2003, payroll employment has risen by
2.2 million. (See table B-1.)

Boosted by cleanup and reconstruction efforts in hurricane-affected areas of
the Southeast, employment in construction increased by 71,000 in October.
The construction industry has added 355,000 jobs since its most recent low
in March 2003. Most of the October employment gain in construction occurred
among specialty trade contractors (54,000); employment also rose in construc-
tion of buildings (11,000).

Professional and business services employment rose by 97,000 in October,
with temporary help services accounting for about half of the increase
(48,000). Since April 2003, temporary help services has added 397,000 jobs.
In October, employment in architectural and engineering services rose by
8,000.

Employment in education and health services grew by 62,000 in October,
with gains of 22,000 in educational services and 41,000 in health care and
social assistance. The large increase in health care and social assistance
followed a relatively small gain in September (10,000). Taken together, em-
ployment growth over the 2 months was in line with the trend over the past
year. October job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (22,000),
hospitals (6,000), and social assistance (11,000).

Financial activities employment increased by 17,000 over the month, and
has risen by 113,000 since the beginning of the year. The securities, com-
modity contracts, and investments industry added 8,000 jobs in October, as
did the credit intermediation industry.

Within government, local education added 32,000 jobs in October and has
increased by 124,000 over the past 12 months.

Manufacturing employment was about unchanged in October and has shown lit-
tle change since May. Manufacturing added 82,000 jobs over the February
through May period.

Retail trade employment was little changed overall in October (+21,000);
its electronics and appliance stores component gained 7,000 jobs. Retail
trade has added 188,000 jobs since its recent low in December 2003. Whole-
sale trade employment was about unchanged in October.
Not Seasonally AdjustedSeries title: (Unadj) Civilian Labor Force LevelLabor force status: Civilian labor forceType of data: Number in thousandsAge: 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1994 129393 129764 129718 129682 130602 132115 132783 132361 131155 131879 131869 131418 131056
1995 130698 131028 131423 131657 131739 133447 134440 133383 132341 132863 132622 132008 132304
1996 131396 131995 132692 132513 133558 135083 136272 135011 134230 135015 134973 134583 133943
1997 134317 134535 135524 135181 135963 137557 138331 137460 136375 136665 136912 136742 136297
1998 135951 136286 136967 136379 137240 138798 139336 138379 137903 138255 138288 138297 137673
1999 137943 138202 138418 138240 138919 140666 141119 140090 139217 139761 139895 139941 139368
2000 141228(1) 141775 142123 142138 142144 143874 143797 143171 142149 142685 142797 143110 142583
2001 142828 143100 143664 143026 143023 144553 145097 143826 143601 144060 143987 144042 143734
2002 143228 144266 144334 144158 144527 145940 146189 145565 145167 145320 144854 144807 144863
2003 145301(1) 145693 145801 145925 146067 148117 147822 146967 146166 146787 146969 146501 146510
2004 146068(1) 146154 146525 146260 146659 148478 149217 148166 147186 147978
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls in January 2000, January 2003 and January 2004.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Series Id: LNS11000000Seasonal AdjustedSeries title: (Seas) Civilian Labor Force LevelLabor force status: Civilian labor forceType of data: Number in thousandsAge: 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1994 130596 130669 130400 130621 130779 130561 130652 131275 131421 131744 131891 131951
1995 132038 132115 132108 132590 131851 131949 132343 132336 132611 132716 132614 132511
1996 132616 132952 133180 133409 133667 133697 134284 134054 134515 134921 135007 135113
1997 135456 135400 135891 136016 136119 136211 136477 136618 136675 136633 136961 137155
1998 137095 137112 137236 137150 137372 137455 137588 137570 138286 138279 138381 138634
1999 139003 138967 138730 138959 139107 139329 139439 139430 139622 139771 140025 140177
2000 142258(1) 142452 142398 142747 142369 142571 142265 142562 142539 142663 142959 143273
2001 143787 143652 143873 143549 143290 143323 143674 143372 144020 144171 144254 144369
2002 143842 144546 144384 144675 144902 144738 144879 145146 145606 145442 145109 145157
2003 145875(1) 145898 145818 146377 146462 146917 146652 146622 146610 146892 147187 146878
2004 146863(1) 146471 146650 146741 146974 147279 147856 147704 147483 147850
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls in January 2000, January 2003 and January 2004.

(Unadj) Special Unemployment Rate U-6Labor force status: Aggregated totals unemployedType of data: PercentAge: 16 years and overPercent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1994 12.8 12.2 11.9 10.9 10.6 11.3 11.1 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.7 9.7 10.9
1995 11.1 10.5 10.3 9.8 9.8 10.4 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.3 9.6 9.7 10.1
1996 10.8 10.7 10.3 9.7 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.7
1997 10.4 10.0 9.6 9.0 8.5 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.3 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.9
1998 9.3 8.9 8.9 7.7 7.6 8.4 8.5 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.3 8.0
1999 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.4 7.1 7.9 7.7 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.4
2000 7.8 7.6 7.4 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.8 6.7 7.0
2001 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.1 7.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.3 8.1
2002 10.5 10.1 9.9 9.4 9.2 9.8 9.9 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.4 9.6 9.6
2003 11.0 10.8 10.4 9.8 9.7 10.6 10.5 10.0 9.8 9.5 9.7 9.6 10.1
2004 10.9 10.3 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.8 9.8 9.3 8.9 9.1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Series Id: LNS13327709Seasonal AdjustedSeries title: (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workersLabor force status: Aggregated totals unemployedType of data: PercentAge: 16 years and overPercent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1994 11.8 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0
1995 10.2 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.1 9.9 10.0 10.0
1996 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.5
1997 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.4
1998 8.4 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.6
1999 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1
2000 7.0 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.9
2001 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.4 9.6
2002 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.9
2003 9.9 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.9
2004 9.9 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.7


http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

2003 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Natural Resources & Mining
-1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -1 0
Construction
13 35 28 -8 16 9 8 -7 -8
Manufacturing
-15 5 5 -29 6 3 -7 3 1
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
-4 21 18 -19 17 17 13 17 18
Information
-3 4 0 -4 2 0 -1 3 3
Financial Activities
9 8 6 -11 8 4 14 7 13
Professional & Business Services
61 32 21 -22 31 15 18 10 9
Education & Health Services
32 6 -4 -20 14 12 26 10 7
Leisure & Hospitality
29 72 83 40 24 -29 -27 -14 15
Other Services
7 8 6 -10 5 1 0 2 4
Total
128 192 164 -83 124 33 45 30 62



2004 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Natural Resources & Mining
-4 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
Construction
-66 7 27 38 39 31 -7 16 10 2
Manufacturing
-38 4 7 3 8 7 -22 4 6 -10
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
-61 9 22 19 23 22 -15 21 19 10
Information
-5 5 2 2 3 1 -6 3 -2 2
Financial Activities
-12 10 9 16 7 10 -18 8 6 11
Professional & Business Services
-95 27 31 66 26 24 -32 24 14 41
Education & Health Services
-6 15 10 37 11 -2 -10 17 15 29
Leisure & Hospitality
-24 33 37 80 71 81 30 21 -31 -40
Other Services
-10 5 7 9 6 7 -11 5 2 -3
Total
-321 115 153 270 195 182 -91 120 39 42
Note: There is no net birth/death model adjustment for the government supersector.

[Snellius]

16. Here's the kicker:

" Manufacturing employment was about unchanged in October and has shown little change since May. Manufacturing added 82,000 jobs over the February through May period.

Retail trade employment was little changed overall in October (+21,000); its electronics and appliance stores component gained 7,000 jobs. Retail trade has added 188,000 jobs since its recent low in December 2003. Wholesale trade employment was about unchanged in October."

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

These new jobs are all "nonproductive".

[Nihil]

17. I thought it was obvious ...

... these are the Bush voters who didn't speak to the exit pollers!

Honestly, some people can't see the truth when it is being forced
down their throats by the ever-helpful Ministry of Truth ...

[nickinSTL]

18. What a load of crap

More voodoo economics.

I'm sick of this $%^&.

[Tight_rope]

20. More of the cooking the books and fudging the numbers!