The Coming Dem Screw Job

[merkins]

Hesiod made an interesting post over at The American Street I thought worth sharing:

The Coming Dem Screw Job

I hate to be a spoilsport, just when it seems that Bush’s Social Security Destruction plan is fizzling.
But, if the Democrats aren’t careful, Bush and the Republicans will come out of this potential debacle smelling like roses.
Here’s what I mean.
Apparently, Bush has said that the supporters of private accounts have a six-week window of opportunity to turn around public opinion. This jibes with Mickey Kaus’ theory that Karl Rove wants either a win on this issue, or a quick failure that will not have an impact on the midterm elections next year. A theory I agree with.

BUT….

Even if the Democrats and their allies manage to skuttle the dreaded private accounts, Bush has set it up that major Social Security reforms such as increasing the retirement age or eliminating the income cap on FICA are now palatable alternatives.
In a vacuum, both proposals were political death. But when compared to private accounts that destroy the fundamental soundness of the Social Security system, they seem like reasonable alternatives.


So here is what will likely happen. Bush will eventually abandon the private accounts idea, and embrace one of the aforementioned alternative “fixes” for Social Security. He will almost certainly get Democratic support for those fixes.
That, in turn, will give many Republicans who are in marginal districts or in Blue States political cover to “save” Social Security by endorsing and voting for, say, removing the income cap on FICA.
Then, VIOLA! — George W. Bush and the Republicans go into the 2006 midterms as the party that “saved Social Security!” Erasing for a generation the inherent advantage Democrats have had on the issue for decades.

To be sure, conservatives will fume. But Bush doesn’t NEED conservative votes in Congress to win support for a Social Security Fix. He only needs moderate Republicans, and Democrats.
It would be similar to Bill Clinton’s passage of NAFTA in his first term. Get a few sympathetic Democrats on board, and rely upon Republicans for the votes to get the thing passed. Only in Bush’s case, it will be the reverse.
In fact, I predict that even a lot of conservatives will jump on the bandwagon once they realize that the proposal will pass. It will be popular, after all.
Naturally, Bush will be hailed as a political titan, and Rove a genius (again) for doing the politically impossible: fixing Social Security!

.. rest of the post is here :

http://www.reachm.com/amstreet/archives/2005/03/02/the-coming-dem-screw-job/

[wtmusic]

1. Either that or...

the outrageousness of privatizing SS against the wishes of every major senior's group in the country could turn the public off to reform of any kind. With Junior's dip under 50% in the polls none of his proposals look particularly appetizing.

[Skink]

2. Read a litle bit.....

How do you feel about a fifty year storm?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. "A Fifty Year Storm?"

What do you mean?

[kaitykaity]

4. Democrats cooperate with the Bush Bastard at

at their peril and they know it. Or at least they
should know it by now.

These reps and Senators really took a beating their
constituents over recess. Bush's grand plan is going
to die on the vine. The bluster and blow will be
for nothing.

Besides, the neocon death cult agenda is to kill
Social Security. Nothing less will do.

[TheFarseer]

5. I don't think that's likely

The danger I see, is that dems will come out with a counter-plan that raises the cap or raises the retirment age and they will be branded as the party that raised taxes and made old people work.

If republicans back down from privatization and push for raising caps or retirement age, then dems will be the ones that saved social security and repubs will be the mean guys that raised taxes and made old people work. I think we should come out of this looking good if we don't do anything stupid.

[Tamyrlin79]

7. That's great and all, but...

While I like to consider the political consequences, I prefer to take the right position, rather than the popular one. If Democrats pass social security reform that helps the system, then they should have a plan so that they can deny Bush credit for it. That is for if changes to the system truly are needed. If not, and the system we have now is better than anything else we can think of, then we should stand firm on blocking any changes. What is right to do by the American people should be our first consideration. Then, set our policy on that basis. If we are truly on their side and display this, they will be on ours.

[Skittles]

6. that lying, thieving piece of SHIT bush will never "smell like a rose"

NEVER

[Tamyrlin79]

8. It would have to be a very putrescent rose... eom

[Skittles]

10. all WE get are the g.d. THORNS eom

[subterranean]

9. Bush isn't interested in saving social security

He wants to destroy it, not save it. That's why he's so insistent on including private accounts as part of any plan, even though they will do nothing to fix social security. They are a Trojan horse. If he can't get enough support for the private accounts, Bush will drop the issue and forget about social security like he forgot about catching osama bin laden. Also, I doubt that he would get any political mileage out of raising the retirement age or eliminating the income cap. Instead, he will blame Democrats for obstructionism and "playing politics."

[Skittles]

11. YOU KNOW IT SUB

welcome to the DU! :hi:

[subterranean]

12. Thanks for the welcome. n/t

[Malva Zebrina]

13. I tend to agree

I don't believe that Bush is bucking Frist by stubbornly going all around the country pushing his privatization scam. That he is doing so that he looks resolute and tough. Watch what he says on this tour. It may happen at about the third or fourth place he visits and it will gradually morph into something like you describe.

Democrats will accept it and another chunk is taken out. I am fairly postitive they will not resist or say anything bad about Bush and his crazy schemes.

The media will report it as a huge win for Bush--that he "fixed" or even "saved" SS.

Terrible to be such a bitter skeptic, but nothing coming out of the White House can ever be believed. Bush is selling a product, when it doesn't sell, change the advertising , the colors, the music etc.

[BeFree]

14. Exactly

They will do whatever damage they can, claim they saved SS and move on to the next item of deconstructing the government.

"Shrink it until it's small enough to drown" as Grover Norquist says.

Dems had best not change a damn thing on SS until at least 2009. Not one damn thing. They do, and it's another losing proposition.

[Liberty Belle]

15. "TAX THE RICH TO FIX SOCIAL SECURITY!!!!!" New Rallying Cry, All.

Start saying this to every politician, media member, friend, neighbor, and dolt-headed freepers. There is a clear "fix" to the problem--the only one the Republicans don't want to talk about. So we need to shout this answer, loudly and often.

[Fovea]

16. I like it

But the Santorum Youth jingle is a lot snappier.

"Hey hey, ho ho, social security's got to go."

Snappy doesn't always sell, however.

Which is good really, otherwise NAMBLA's chant
"Ho ho, hey hey, man boy luv is here to stay." would have caused a general insurrection... wait, I guess it did. Sorry.

Seriously, we need to make the Social Security pitch megaphone worthy.
I will think on it.

Keep Social Security safer than Enron.

There, that's a start.

[Liberty Belle]

17. "Those with the gold must save the old"

might do it.

[Daphne08]

18. Democrats must stand firm and not give an inch!

The people do NOT want Social Security to be touched... and if the Republicans continue to push, it just might backfire for them in 2006.