http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/09/AR2005100900533.htmlAs the Iraqi people prepare to vote on a new constitution Saturday, the political situation in that country is highly unstable. There are troubling signs of a split in the political alliance of Kurds and Shiites that has thus far kept Iraq from complete chaos. Sunni Arab leaders, meanwhile, openly call for the constitution to be defeated. And Iraqis from all ethnic groups have lost faith in the transitional government's ability to protect them or provide basic services.
Our hope was that a new constitution would serve to unite the Iraqis, but that has not happened. As Gen. George Casey, commander of U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee recently: "We've looked for the constitution to be a national compact, and the perception now is that it's not, particularly among the Sunni." Casey acknowledged that if a constitution were approved by the majority of Iraqis but disapproved by a strong minority of the Sunni Arabs, it could actually make the situation worse.
Our military leaders have long told us that there can be no purely military solution in Iraq and that a genuine, broad-based political settlement among the Iraqis is essential for success and for the defeat of the insurgency.
There is, however, one point on which leaders of the three main groups in Iraq agree: None of the Iraqi groups wants U.S. troops to leave precipitately. The Shiites want us to stay until Iraqi security forces are strong enough to deal with the insurgency on their own. The Kurds want us to remain for the impending future. And the Sunni Arab leaders want us to stay as a deterrent to those who might seek revenge against them for the actions of Saddam Hussein.
We must use that leverage -- the possibility of an American withdrawal -- to achieve the broad-based political settlement that is essential for defeating the insurgency.