Joe Conason: Who's Afraid of a Filibuster?

[babylonsister]

Who's Afraid of a Filibuster?
By Joe Conason


While the ultimate occupants of three United States Senate seats are yet to be determined in Alaska, Georgia and Minnesota, chances seem small that Democrats will increase their new majority to 60 seats -- the supermajority that ensures against a successful filibuster. So the same Republicans who once complained about the use of that legislative weapon by the opposition now brandish it in warning to President-elect Barack Obama.

Nobody can doubt that the Republican remnant in the Senate will obstruct as soon as that seems politically safe. Right-wing pundits, from Rush Limbaugh to the Wall Street Journal editorial page are already egging them on furiously. But is there enough muscle behind that filibuster threat to block Obama's mandate?

The short answer is no -- and the new president's own political arsenal should enable him to call the Republican bluff.

Let's count the actual votes on the Republican side of the aisle, asking which senators would have both the inclination and the will to join a filibuster. Every issue calls forth different levels of resistance, of course, but in each instance the opposition would need at least 41 total. In the very worst case, should the Republicans pick up all the remaining seats, they will begin with three more than that.

Six Senate Republicans will face reelection two years hence in states that went for Obama: Judd Gregg (R-NH), Arlen Specter (R-PA), George Voinovich (R-OH), Mel Martinez (R-FL), Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Richard Burr (R-NC). Having seen their fellow incumbents fall in the last two elections, that half dozen may well consider themselves in varying degrees of political peril. Poor Gregg watched his New Hampshire colleague John Sununu drop this year as their state turned deep blue. Martinez won his seat in 2004 by a single point and is widely considered vulnerable. So are Specter, nearing his 80th birthday, and Voinovich, now 72.

more...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/11/whos_afraid_of_a_filibuster.html

[Richardo]

1. I love real analysis, and Joe Conason. It's the best anti-hysteria vaccine

:patriot:

K&R!

[elocs]

2. Yeah, but isn't hysteria so much more fun?

As Democrats we really need things to get all wound and worked up about.