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Muqtada al-Sadr sounds more formidable than we were led to believe

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RedEarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 08:45 PM
Original message
Muqtada al-Sadr sounds more formidable than we were led to believe
Juan Cole(history professor at University of Michigan) has an excellent, in depth blog primarily dealing with the Middle East. From time to time, he will be interviewed by various networks(he was on ABC this evening) giving his opinion on the Iraqi situation. Cole knows what he is talking about regarding the Middle East.

Below is a recent post from his site dealing with al-Sadr.


http://www.juancole.com/2004_04_01_juancole_archive.html#108119698951121964

2. Talking heads both from Iraq and from the ranks of the US retired officers keep attempting to maintain that Muqtada's movement is small and marginal. One speaker claimed that Muqtada has only 10,000 men.

In fact that is the size of his formal militia. Muqtada's movement is like the layers of an onion. You have 10,000 militiamen. But then you have tens of thousands of cadres able to mobilize neighborhoods. Then you have hundreds of thousands of Sadrists, followers of Muqtada and other heirs of Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr. Then you have maybe 5 million Shiite theocrats who sympathize with Muqtada's goals and rhetoric, about a third of the Shiite community. The Sadrists will now try to shift everything so that the 5 million become followers, the hundreds of thousands become cadres, and the tens of thousands become militiamen.

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Guy Whitey Corngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
1. CNN said today that he has 600 "hardcore" followers
and 2000 strong militia. CNN wouldn't lie. Would they? :eyes:
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Monkey see Monkey Do Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. are they digitally added militia! nt
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RedEarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Typical media spin
Perhaps when several hundred thousand of his followers take to the street they might even make an attempt to report the truth.....however, I wouldn't hold my breath.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
2. From what I remember, Khomeini's following grew rapidly..
once Iranians got the idea he was their best shot at getting rid of the Shah. If BushCo plays their cards just right, they can do the same with al-Sadr.
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Robbien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 08:57 PM
Response to Original message
4. Salam Pax's Raed writes this
Ok… here is the majority! AsSadr is the majority, he is THE leader of the majority…AsSadr is the symbol of millions in the south who were waiting for Americans come, where is the problem?

<snip>

Muqtada AsSadr, is a very important phenomenon in the south of Iraq. I remember some discussions I had with a very dear American friend, working with the USAID in Baghdad; Sloan Mann was asking me about the most dangerous challenge in building the new Iraq. Falluja? He asked. “AsSadr” was my answer.
That was 10 months ago.

AsSadr opened offices and mosques in the cities of the south and in Saddam city (Athawra) in Baghdad, which he managed to change its name to AsSadr city. AsSdr city is a huge gridiron city inside Baghdad that one million Shia people live in, it is the area of the poor, vulnerable and uneducated people, and it is the weapons market of Baghdad, you can get a grenade for $5 or a machine gun for $50.

He created a parallel Iraqi government, as an alternative option beside the CPA, he selected ministers too.

And, maybe the most important thing he could arrange, he controlled a very important part of the religious establishment of Shia Iraqis ... (Al-Hawza).

Everyone was underestimating him; Bremer, political leaders, media, most of my friends, my parents. But I didn’t… at all.

From my frequent visits to the south, I could really feel and see the actual strength and authorities AsSadr have, and the real possibility that he will be a key person in the next stage of the Iraqi history.
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RedEarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 09:04 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Can you imagine what would happen if we killed or arrested al-Sadr
......talk about blood in the streets...there would be total chaos through-out Iraq.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. And if we don't do nothing we look weak. No win situation here n/t
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
6. Muqtada al-Sadr is the George Washington of Iraq now
Bush has fixed us up with this nice big shit sandwich and the entire nation is now going to have to eat it.
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Malikshah Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
8. JRIC is right
Wow, Dr. Cole on TV--- He does not speak unless it is necessary--and when he does, he is able to back his claims.

Fascinating, really.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
9. His followers are the young bucks and they appear to be very dangerous
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/06/international/middleeast/06KUFA.html?ex=1081828800&en=624d844a2ca8535f&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE

An Incendiary Cleric Braces His Militia for an Invasion

KUFA, Iraq, April 5 — The Grand Mosque of Kufa has now become the grand arsenal.

On Monday, as American authorities issued an arrest warrant for Moktada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite cleric who set off the most serious insurrection so far against the occupation forces, hundreds of his supporters were busy fortifying the mosque here with heavy weapons, bracing for an American invasion. snip

On Monday, blue-and-white Iraqi police trucks cruised the streets. But it was bearded, black-clad men loyal to Mr. Sadr who were driving them. The police stations and government offices are now occupied by Mr. Sadr's agents, who enforce an austere version of Islam and have even set up their own religious courts and prisons. The town is basically an occupation-free zone. snip

"He is one of the only who is not afraid," said Falah Hussein, a laborer. "He refuses the occupation. Totally. That's why we like him."

more

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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. This Is Indeed Damned Serious, My Friend
Al'Sadr is making his play for supremacy among the Shia; what he is doing is aimed as much against Ay. al'Sistani as against the U.S. occupation. Open defiance of the U.S. is the best way to bid for support, by making his older rival seem an "Uncle Abdul", or whatever the local equivalent usage for "Uncle Tom" might be.

The only thing which has kept a semblance of order in Iraq is that al'Sisyani has held the Shia quiet, using the U.S. to knock down the Shia and other rivals of his. Should this fail, either by his being supplanted by al'Sadr, or by realizing he must out-militant al'Sadr to hold his position, what we have seen so far will seem a mere playground fight by comparison.

"Can't nobody here play this game?"

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"
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RedEarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-06-04 08:32 AM
Response to Reply #15
20. Al-Sadr, al-Sistani and the Shia population is without question
the most serious issue in Iraq. With 60% of the population, the Shia's are the key to any type of stability in the country. If the US, can't find a way to have Sistani intervene in the al-Sadr issue, and in turn were to arrest or kill al-Sadr, there could be a total meltdown in Iraq.

What's tragic, is much of what is going on in Iraq now was predicted prior to the invasion. Mubarak and other middle east leaders warned of the chaos we are now seeing, however, Bush chose not to listen.
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starroute Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:01 PM
Response to Original message
11. I've had an eye on Moqtada for the last year
And I've brought his name up every chance I've gotten as someone who was going to mean trouble.


Here's something from April 19, 2003:

"While Shiites refer to the seminary as the source of ultimate authority, often waiting days for answers to questions they send by courier to Najaf, their allegiance is generally paid to one or another of the three remaining senior clerics there.

"Though Sheik Ali al-Sestani is the most senior of them, the office of the late Mr. Sadr, run now by his son Moqtadah al-Sadr, has been most active and most radical in its message since the fall of Mr. Hussein's government.

"Many clerics, troubled by the radical language of Mr. Sadr's followers, say Mr. Sestani is promoting a more moderate message. The United States has already tried to exploit that division by sending a returning exile cleric into Najaf in the days after the fall of the city in the hope of winning support from the clergy there. But that cleric, Sheik Abdel Majid al-Khoei, was killed last week when he tried to establish his authority by reconciling with the caretaker of Ali's tomb, a man widely disparaged in the Shiite community in Najaf for his collaboration with Mr. Hussein's government."


And here's something from May 1, 2003:

"NAJAF, Iraq - Moqtada al Sadr is a young Shiite cleric of low rank who was virtually unknown a month ago, but his name now evokes fear in this holy city.

"His followers have been blamed for the brutal slaying last month of a pro-Western Shiite cleric in a violent confrontation that drove Iraq's top Shiite spiritual leaders into seclusion and brought Sadr to the attention of both Iraqis and the United States.

The son of a grand ayatollah who was assassinated under Saddam Hussein, Sadr is now the only religious voice speaking out in this city at the epicenter of the Shiite faith. With the United States pressing Iraq's Shiite majority to support a democratic government, Sadr has emerged as an unchallenged advocate for what he calls 'righteous Islamic rule.' "


And this from August 5, 2003:

"Last Thursday, about 10,000 young men reportedly showed up in the holy city of Najaf to join the 'army of al-Mahdi'. The volunteers had responded to a request by Muqtada al-Sadr, a 30-year-old anti-American cleric with an expanding following among the dissatisfied Iraqi Shi'ites. The cleric has been trying to establish himself as the leader of the Iraqi Shi'ites since the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime.

His army is named after Mahdi, the 12th Imam of the Shi'ites, who is believed to have disappeared about 1,200 years ago. Being a descendent of the Prophet Mohammad, the imam will reappear to save the world when corruption and oppression dominates, according to the Shi'ite faith. His reappearance will therefore end tyrannical and corrupt regimes. This concept of the promised savior (or messiah) has existed in other religions and different Islamic sects in various forms. Al-Sadr's choice of name for his army indicates his intention to capitalize on this belief's message, ie, fighting the oppressors, now symbolized by the US occupying force. According to some reports, an additional reason for this naming could be a belief among some of al-Sadr's followers who consider him as a Mahdi.

<snip>

"The army of al-Mahdi is yet to become a military force to reckon with. Given the growing opposition among the Iraqis, including the Shi'ites, who account for 60 percent of the population, there seems to be no shortage of recruits for this army. In addition to those who showed up in Najaf, about 1,000 people from Baghdad's poor neighborhood of Saddam City, now renamed al-Sadr City, responded to al-Sadr's call."

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Robbien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Thanks, I remembered the story about that exile cleric being killed
but didn't connect it to al-Mahdi. This movement is a long time in the making and doesn't seem it will be brought down easily. Especially if our military believes the lies the press is spewing out.
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RedEarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. I had heard of Sadr and knew he was more of a radical cleric,
however, I never realized he had such a large following. Now, with all the problems in Iraq, I would imagine his numbers are growing even larger. Such a quagmire.....so many factions.
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Guy Whitey Corngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Quagmire is right. It is said 10s of thousands would follow him.
It might be hyperbole. But even in the thousands that is still a lot of pissed off people.
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Catholic Sensation Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:47 PM
Response to Original message
16. where was this guy when saddam was in power?
is he another one of those chickenshit clerics who had fun in Iran while Saddam was busy killing all the religious Muslims, or was he quiet when Saddam was in power?
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Aidoneus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. When Saddam killed his father in '99, he stayed in Iraq
Edited on Mon Apr-05-04 10:56 PM by Aidoneus
went underground in Kufa and began preparing the movement for the revolution that is unfolding now. Immediately after the invasion and occupation he was a busy little bee, providing services in areas that had none with the collapse of the state and organizing. Up to now, everybody has underestimated him.
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Guy Whitey Corngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Don't forget his 2 brothers who were also killed. eom
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TroubleMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-05-04 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
17. He's our new excuse

To stay there and do whatever the hell we want, because we're fighting him. He's being spun as a murderer, terrorist, and whatever else they can think of. He may be or he may not be....that's not the point. We need a new "bad guy" to go after, and he's going to be the new Sadaam, Osama, ect.
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-06-04 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. LOL the joke's on US.
We're HIS excuse.

We're SO fucking stupid.
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