http://newyorker.com/printable/?talk/041115ta_talk_surowieckiGeorge W. Bush was reëlected last Tuesday not because of the job he did running the economy in his first term but in spite of it. (Voters for whom the economy was the most important issue voted for Kerry by a four-to-one margin.) Bush doesn’t get to coast for the next four years, though; he’s facing a host of economic problems, particularly the mounting cost of health care and the looming crisis in funding for Social Security and Medicare. Bush, of course, has a master plan: he intends to turn America into what he calls an ownership society.
That sounds unobjectionable—who’s against ownership? But what the President has in mind is nothing less than a radical overhaul of America’s entire system of social insurance. In place of unwieldy government programs run by busybody bureaucrats, Bush wants Americans to have more independence and more choices regarding their health care, their savings, and their retirement. Social Security would be partially privatized, with people allowed to put aside money in individual accounts. Private health-insurance plans would compete with Medicare. Tax-free retirement accounts would be expanded. And health savings accounts would let people save money for health-care expenses tax-free, as long as they agreed to sign up for plans with high deductibles. The result, Bush claimed earlier this year, would be “greater opportunity, more freedom, and more control over your own life.” And with freedom, presumably, will come greater responsibility; people will be more careful as users of health care, more diligent as savers and investors.
The ownership society promises freedom, but at the price of a huge shift in risk, away from government and society and onto individual citizens. Social Security, Medicare, insurance—these are basically collective risk-sharing mechanisms. Rather than let each person run the risk of ending up destitute or sick, these programs pool the risk. Because the risk is shared, it can be managed, and people can be guaranteed a minimally acceptable outcome. In Bush’s brave new world, that guarantee will be eliminated.
The ownership society’s greatest flaw, however, is that it won’t solve the problems it purports to address. A real solution would require facing up to some thorny issues—raising the retirement age, slowing the growth of benefits, means-testing. By advocating greater freedom and independence, while failing to explain or account for the greater risk, Bush is setting Americans up for an unpleasant surprise. If his plans are implemented, a lot of people are going to end up a lot poorer in their old age than they otherwise would have been. (A lot of people will end up a lot richer, too.) The result would be Social Security without the security part. Freedom of choice is a beautiful thing. But the Bush plan is asking you to swap an insurance policy for a lottery ticket.