Privatization A "Sideshow" To The "Main Event" Says Senator Graham (R-S.C.

[Itsthetruth]

Social Security reforms remain in the shadows
By LARRY WHEELER
GANNETT NEWS SERVICE
March 2, 2005

Receiving virtually no attention in the battle over Social Security are painful, controversial measures that Congress will have to consider if it hopes to meet the president's challenge to strengthen the program far into the future.

"The personal accounts are being oversold," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a leading voice in the Social Security reform debate.
Graham, who backs the accounts, is one of the few Republican lawmakers willing to say publicly that they're a sideshow to the main event. "The key to saving Social Security permanently is recalculating the growth of benefits," he said.

Cut benefits

Right now, monthly benefit payments under Social Security are calculated based on growth in wages. Graham and others support basing benefits on the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which grows at a slower rate. "It's a clean way to reduce the payoffs of the current system and bring the program into balance," said Matt Moore, a senior analyst with the National Center for Policy Analysis, a group that supports private accounts.

But price indexing also would hurt the very people Social Security is supposed to help, said John Rother, policy director for AARP, the powerful seniors lobby. "The (earnings) replacement rate would go down to half of what it is today," Rother said.


http://www.thejournalnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050302/BUSINESS01/503020371/1066

[Itsthetruth]

1. How Price Indexing Would Slash Benefits

Economic Policy Institute
Snapshot for February 9, 2005

Proposed Social Security price indexing would slash benefits
The Bush Administration has spoken favorably about substituting price indexing for wage indexing, a change that was a centerpiece of Plan 2 of the President's Social Security commission. Under this change, benefits would no longer reflect improvements in the country's standard of living, but would just be indexed to prices. It is hard to overstate the effect of that substitution on hypothetical future benefits.

Recent research by the non-partisan Congressional Research Service (CRS) sheds light on this issue. The CRS estimated what the effect on current Social Security retirees' benefits would have been if initial benefits had been calculated based on increases in prices—using the consumer price index—instead of increases in average national wages.1

Figure 1 shows that, with a price indexation formula, retiree benefits would have been cut substantially. Under the current wage indexation, the Social Security benefit for a person with average earnings over one's lifetime and retiring in 2005 would be $15,336 per year, replacing 42% of the average worker's income. If, however, price indexing had been used instead of wage indexing, that same 2005 retiree would receive only $6,180 per year, replacing just 17% of income. In other words, as the figure shows, a change from wage indexation to price indexation would have meant a 60% cut in Social Security benefits for today's retirees.





http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots_20050209

[Justitia]

2. sigh...here comes Act Two of this tragic play - eom

[whistle]

3. Okay, what is that I'm missing...The case for privatization states...

...that changing demographics beginning in 2008 and going through to 2045 makes it impossible for social security to pay its obligations because where we have 3.5 workers now supporting each social security recipient, by the year 2045 (possibly 2052 depending on projected demographics) there will only be 2.0 workers supporting each social security recipient. That clearly presents a strain on workers who contribute to a program which is pay-as-you-go, I can not argue with that.

However, the demographics are there whether we decide to go with the current program, ratcheting up the premiums or cutting benefits, or converting to some form of privatization. Under a privatized program we must remember that such programs will be turned over to private insurance companies who ruthlessly use actuarial tables and demographics to parse out who constitute high rick and therefore would end up be excluded from the program. That would cost all taxpayers in the long run. Then there would be the administrative fees which would be much higher than the current system, there would be the profits which would skimmed and these companies would have free use of the cash going into the system and thus the higher risk of ERON type scandals and losses to the funds.

No matter how it's packaged privatization would be a bad deal for the working American.

[Justitia]

4. just to clarify something in your first paragraph

It takes less workers to support an individual retiree today because workers of today make higher wages. The right has tried to spin this as a bad thing, making it appear that it is unsustainable. In truth, wages rise higher than the cost of the program, so it only takes 2 workers contributing, not more, as in the past.

Changing the program (as Lindsay is trying to do) by tying it to prices vs wages would lower the benefit to retirees as wages rise faster than prices (why we need less workers per retiree today).

They are trying to be very clever with this, we must be alert to the sleight of hand.

[Itsthetruth]

5. That's True And .......

the employers have to match those higher FICA taxes employees pay as a result of higher wages.

[whistle]

6. Ahaa good point, it takes 3.5 workers making up to $90,000 and

...contributing 6.2% or up to $5,580 along with their employer's share for another 6.2% or up to $5,580. If the cap was raised to say $150,000 or even $250,000 or have no cap at all, wouldn't that alleviate any stress to meet obligations into the far projected future? That would also mean that more workers would be paying into the system thus spreading the obligation.

The key is to stop allowing the federal budget (especially when under the control of republicans) to use social security surpluses to pay for deficit spending at bargain basement interest rates and instead use it for what was meant to pay down debt, thus saving tax payers to huge interest payments each year.

If anyone has links to detailed statistics on wages and social security contributions that could show the impact of this, I would appreciate seeing that posted here. There has to be a better solution than letting the BushCo thugs loot the system and leave millions without security for their future.

[MousePlayingDaffodil]

7. I'm missing something here . . .

How does raising or eliminating the cap on wages subject to the Social Security payroll tax result in "more workers . . . paying into the system"?

[No Mandate Here.]

8. There is no reason why the rich should

get off with a tax cut on what they make over $ 90,000 per year.

We all pay 6.2% on our wages - up to that limit. That means that Bill Gates doesn't pay that percentage on the rest of his salary - all $42 gazillion. He has a tax cut. We don't.

[MousePlayingDaffodil]

10. True enough . . .

. . . but that wasn't what I understood him to be saying. He seemed to be asserting that raising or eliminating the cap would bring more workers into the system.

Of course, if you tax Bill Gates (or any very wealthy person) on all of his income, when the time comes for him to receive Social Security benefits, his will be very, very large.

[whistle]

9. It doesn't does it, that's why we need facts and not rhetoric...

...about Social Security. Does anyone have a link on social security statistics, like numbers of workers paying what percentage of total wages and the relative contributions by workers at each wage level, including wage earnings which aren't subject to social security tax? Also, workers who don't pay anything into the system regardless of wages earned?

That would include small business owners who do not pay themselves a wage thus getting past the requirement to pay social security and companies who hire on workers as subcontractors, thus skipping the obligation altogether for paying the company share social security. There are millions of people who through these loopholes are avoiding social security payments altogether.

[MousePlayingDaffodil]

11. Oh, I wholeheartedly agree . . .

. . . that the Social Security debate needs more facts and less rhetoric.

[whistle]

12. Okay, does anyone have any data they wish to share....

...post here, please.

[Itsthetruth]

13. Check These Social Security Links Out

You can probably find out whatever information and data you need in the Economic Policy Institute Issue Guide and at the Eriposte.com websites. Here's the links:


http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/issueguide_socialsecurity

http://www.eriposte.com/policy/socialsecurity.htm

[whistle]

15. Well, here is one problem with the republican and Bush's...

...arguments about the Social Security program being in crisis, their 100 year economic plan through the years 2105. They seem to be content with unemployment being at 5.2% and real GDP growth at a stunning 1.4% to 1.8% rate of growth. That is conservative policy in action. Certainly democrats can come up with much more realistic assumptions than those.

Table W-5.

Various Economic Assumptions Under the Scheduled Benefits Scenario, 2004 to 2105


Average
Average Consumer real Average Implicit Total
Real annual Price Real-wage annual annual GDP price factor
GDP wage Index differential interest unemployment deflator productivity
growth growth Growth (c)-(d) rate rate growth growth
Year (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

2004 4.43 3.41 2.61 0.80 1.74 5.52 2.07 3.31
2005 3.77 3.53 2.38 1.14 2.41 5.23 1.84 1.22
2006 3.74 3.39 1.96 1.43 3.47 5.17 1.54 1.33
2007 3.70 3.63 2.13 1.51 3.34 5.18 1.65 1.38
2008 3.39 3.68 2.19 1.50 3.27 5.18 1.78 1.12
2009 3.15 3.52 2.24 1.29 3.23 5.18 1.80 0.97
2010 2.95 3.41 2.19 1.22 3.29 5.19 1.80 0.91
2011 2.81 3.85 2.19 1.66 3.26 5.19 1.78 1.48
2012 2.70 3.58 2.19 1.39 3.27 5.19 1.79 1.31
2013 2.66 3.56 2.19 1.37 3.29 5.20 1.79 1.34
2014 2.60 3.56 2.23 1.33 3.24 5.20 1.79 1.34
2015 2.54 3.56 2.20 1.36 3.28 5.20 1.79 1.32
2016 2.44 3.52 2.20 1.32 3.25 5.20 1.79 1.31
2017 2.29 3.31 2.20 1.11 3.14 5.20 1.79 1.31
2018 1.94 3.25 2.20 1.05 3.13 5.20 1.79 1.30
2019 1.71 3.08 2.20 0.88 3.16 5.20 1.79 1.29
2020 1.54 3.06 2.20 0.86 3.21 5.20 1.81 1.29
2021 1.52 3.32 2.20 1.12 3.27 5.20 1.83 1.28
2022 1.40 3.17 2.20 0.97 3.30 5.20 1.84 1.27
2023 1.59 3.38 2.20 1.18 3.35 5.20 1.85 1.27
2024 1.65 3.33 2.20 1.13 3.38 5.20 1.86 1.26
2025 1.57 3.51 2.20 1.31 3.35 5.20 1.88 1.25
2026 1.70 3.29 2.20 1.09 3.33 5.20 1.87 1.25
2027 1.61 3.42 2.20 1.22 3.30 5.20 1.87 1.25
2028 1.59 3.53 2.20 1.33 3.28 5.20 1.87 1.25
2029 1.54 3.53 2.20 1.33 3.26 5.20 1.88 1.25
2030 1.53 3.38 2.20 1.18 3.27 5.20 1.88 1.25
2031 1.55 3.27 2.20 1.07 3.29 5.20 1.88 1.25
2032 1.48 3.35 2.20 1.15 3.30 5.20 1.88 1.25
2033 1.56 3.38 2.20 1.18 3.32 5.20 1.88 1.25
2034 1.71 3.56 2.20 1.36 3.35 5.20 1.88 1.25
2035 1.62 3.40 2.20 1.20 3.34 5.20 1.88 1.25
2036 1.67 3.52 2.20 1.32 3.32 5.20 1.88 1.25
2037 1.84 3.35 2.20 1.15 3.33 5.20 1.88 1.25
2038 1.89 3.45 2.20 1.25 3.35 5.20 1.88 1.25
2039 1.96 3.59 2.20 1.39 3.36 5.20 1.88 1.25
2040 1.97 3.44 2.20 1.24 3.35 5.20 1.88 1.25
2041 1.86 3.58 2.20 1.38 3.30 5.20 1.88 1.25
2042 1.94 3.48 2.20 1.28 3.28 5.20 1.88 1.25
2043 2.00 3.34 2.20 1.14 3.31 5.20 1.88 1.25
2044 1.82 3.45 2.20 1.25 3.29 5.20 1.88 1.25
2045 1.97 3.39 2.20 1.19 3.31 5.20 1.88 1.25
2046 1.90 3.59 2.20 1.39 3.32 5.20 1.88 1.25
2047 1.88 3.43 2.20 1.23 3.31 5.20 1.88 1.25
2048 1.89 3.51 2.20 1.31 3.30 5.20 1.88 1.25
2049 1.85 3.59 2.20 1.39 3.30 5.20 1.88 1.25
2050 1.93 3.39 2.20 1.19 3.32 5.20 1.88 1.25
2051 2.01 3.52 2.20 1.32 3.35 5.20 1.88 1.25
2052 1.89 3.44 2.20 1.24 3.33 5.20 1.88 1.25
2053 1.98 3.47 2.20 1.27 3.32 5.20 1.88 1.25
2054 1.83 3.60 2.20 1.40 3.30 5.20 1.88 1.25
2055 1.93 3.35 2.20 1.15 3.29 5.20 1.88 1.25
2056 1.90 3.57 2.20 1.37 3.30 5.20 1.88 1.25
2057 1.85 3.42 2.20 1.22 3.30 5.20 1.88 1.25
2058 1.75 3.40 2.20 1.20 3.27 5.20 1.88 1.25
2059 1.85 3.39 2.20 1.19 3.29 5.20 1.88 1.25
2060 1.85 3.37 2.20 1.17 3.32 5.20 1.88 1.25
2061 1.80 3.55 2.20 1.35 3.32 5.20 1.88 1.25
2062 1.92 3.39 2.20 1.19 3.34 5.20 1.88 1.25
2063 1.95 3.49 2.20 1.29 3.35 5.20 1.88 1.25
2064 1.89 3.45 2.20 1.25 3.32 5.20 1.88 1.25
2065 2.07 3.48 2.20 1.28 3.33 5.20 1.88 1.25
2066 1.94 3.62 2.20 1.42 3.31 5.20 1.88 1.25
2067 1.86 3.45 2.20 1.25 3.26 5.20 1.88 1.25
2068 1.89 3.29 2.20 1.09 3.25 5.20 1.88 1.25
2069 1.84 3.46 2.20 1.26 3.27 5.20 1.88 1.25
2070 1.81 3.38 2.20 1.18 3.28 5.20 1.88 1.25
2071 1.80 3.37 2.20 1.17 3.30 5.20 1.88 1.25
2072 1.86 3.36 2.20 1.16 3.32 5.20 1.89 1.25
2073 1.87 3.36 2.20 1.16 3.33 5.20 1.89 1.25
2074 1.90 3.47 2.20 1.27 3.33 5.20 1.89 1.25
2075 1.92 3.50 2.20 1.30 3.32 5.20 1.88 1.25
2076 1.82 3.44 2.20 1.24 3.29 5.20 1.88 1.25
2077 1.92 3.44 2.20 1.24 3.28 5.20 1.89 1.25
2078 1.88 3.39 2.20 1.19 3.29 5.20 1.89 1.25
2079 1.88 3.49 2.20 1.29 3.29 5.20 1.89 1.25
2080 1.79 3.43 2.20 1.23 3.29 5.20 1.89 1.25
2081 1.80 3.28 2.20 1.08 3.28 5.20 1.89 1.25
2082 1.80 3.48 2.20 1.28 3.30 5.20 1.89 1.25
2083 1.71 3.37 2.20 1.17 3.29 5.20 1.89 1.25
2084 1.79 3.31 2.20 1.11 3.30 5.20 1.89 1.25
2085 1.83 3.34 2.20 1.14 3.32 5.20 1.89 1.25
2086 1.85 3.35 2.20 1.15 3.33 5.20 1.89 1.25
2087 1.86 3.47 2.20 1.27 3.32 5.20 1.89 1.25
2088 1.87 3.49 2.20 1.29 3.31 5.20 1.89 1.25
2089 1.78 3.40 2.20 1.20 3.27 5.20 1.89 1.25
2090 1.84 3.28 2.20 1.08 3.27 5.20 1.89 1.25
2091 1.68 3.44 2.20 1.24 3.26 5.20 1.89 1.25
2092 1.87 3.40 2.20 1.20 3.29 5.20 1.89 1.25
2093 1.79 3.37 2.20 1.17 3.32 5.20 1.89 1.25
2094 1.78 3.39 2.20 1.19 3.31 5.20 1.89 1.25
2095 1.83 3.48 2.20 1.28 3.31 5.20 1.89 1.25
2096 1.76 3.32 2.20 1.12 3.29 5.20 1.89 1.25
2097 1.89 3.37 2.20 1.17 3.30 5.20 1.89 1.25
2098 1.80 3.47 2.20 1.27 3.30 5.20 1.89 1.25
2099 1.82 3.26 2.20 1.06 3.29 5.20 1.89 1.25
2100 1.77 3.44 2.20 1.24 3.28 5.20 1.89 1.25
2101 1.76 3.36 2.20 1.16 3.27 5.20 1.89 1.25
2102 1.76 3.31 2.20 1.11 3.28 5.20 1.90 1.25
2103 1.84 3.39 2.20 1.19 3.30 5.20 1.90 1.25
2104 1.66 3.28 2.20 1.08 3.29 5.20 1.90 1.25
2105 1.67 3.37 2.20 1.17 3.26 5.20 1.90 1.25


Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Notes: Based on a simulation using the Social Security trustees' 2004
intermediate demographic assumptions and CBO's January 2005 economic assumptions.
<link> http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=6064&sequence=0

[whistle]

17. This is an interesting data set from the same data base....

...It shows something called table payroll, but nowhere can I find non-taxable payroll. That amount has to be easily 20% to 30% of total payroll.

The data series also shows how much social security beneficiaries can actually loose by having benefits adjusted to inflation rather than wage increases. The buying power of social security will drop like a stone during the next century. The BushCo lies and cover-up is really a republican/corporate scam.

Table W-3.

Projected Gross Domestic Product and
Taxable Payroll Under the Scheduled
Benefits Scenario, 1985 to 2105


Actual (through 2003) and expected values

Nominal Real (2005) dollars
Year GDP Tax Pay GDP Tax Pay
1985 4,220 1,723 6,672 2,724
1986 4,463 1,844 6,907 2,855
1987 4,739 1,960 7,135 2,951
1988 5,104 2,088 7,430 3,040
1989 5,484 2,240 7,689 3,140
1990 5,803 2,358 7,837 3,184
1991 5,996 2,423 7,829 3,163
1992 6,338 2,533 8,084 3,231
1993 6,657 2,636 8,299 3,286
1994 7,072 2,785 8,631 3,399
1995 7,398 2,919 8,851 3,493
1996 7,817 3,074 9,174 3,607
1997 8,304 3,286 9,593 3,795
1998 8,747 3,516 9,989 4,015
1999 9,268 3,736 10,433 4,206
2000 9,817 3,983 10,818 4,389
2001 10,128 4,181 10,899 4,500
2002 10,487 4,277 11,101 4,528
2003 11,004 4,508 11,440 4,687
2004 11,730 4,482 11,947 4,565
2005 12,396 4,779 12,396 4,779
2006 13,058 5,040 12,860 4,964
2007 13,766 5,315 13,342 5,151
2008 14,486 5,596 13,785 5,326
2009 15,211 5,880 14,229 5,501
2010 15,941 6,165 14,639 5,662
2011 16,680 6,449 15,054 5,821
2012 17,437 6,742 15,459 5,977
2013 18,222 7,042 15,874 6,134
2014 19,031 7,352 16,283 6,291
2015 19,864 7,660 16,697 6,439
2016 20,712 7,997 17,110 6,606
2017 21,564 8,372 17,499 6,794
2018 22,376 8,690 17,842 6,930
2019 23,168 9,038 18,146 7,079
2020 23,952 9,326 18,419 7,172
2021 24,759 9,661 18,701 7,297
2022 25,568 9,906 18,961 7,346
2023 26,455 10,244 19,269 7,461
2024 27,392 10,601 19,588 7,581
2025 28,342 10,972 19,894 7,702
2026 29,363 11,325 20,224 7,800
2027 30,397 11,724 20,550 7,927
2028 31,457 12,041 20,883 7,993
2029 32,540 12,493 21,193 8,136
2030 33,657 12,836 21,526 8,210
2031 34,821 13,278 21,852 8,333
2032 35,999 13,712 22,175 8,447
2033 37,247 14,150 22,528 8,558
2034 38,595 14,679 22,916 8,716
2035 39,957 15,186 23,285 8,850
2036 41,386 15,745 23,667 9,004
2037 42,940 16,289 24,106 9,144
2038 44,574 16,768 24,560 9,239
2039 46,301 17,426 25,048 9,427
2040 48,099 18,179 25,532 9,650
2041 49,914 18,858 26,007 9,826
2042 51,835 19,591 26,519 10,023
2043 53,866 20,211 27,044 10,147
2044 55,876 20,995 27,538 10,347
2045 58,046 21,745 28,080 10,519
2046 60,258 22,560 28,610 10,712
2047 62,544 23,457 29,155 10,935
2048 64,920 24,210 29,698 11,075
2049 67,361 25,213 30,249 11,322
2050 69,951 26,142 30,834 11,524
2051 72,695 27,067 31,452 11,711
2052 75,458 28,007 32,044 11,893
2053 78,398 29,185 32,676 12,164
2054 81,331 30,156 33,281 12,340
2055 84,458 31,274 33,919 12,560
2056 87,678 32,525 34,557 12,819
2057 90,982 33,799 35,205 13,078
2058 94,319 34,991 35,817 13,287
2059 97,868 36,002 36,485 13,422
2060 101,550 37,504 37,154 13,722
2061 105,327 38,828 37,820 13,942
2062 109,364 40,220 38,554 14,179
2063 113,599 41,394 39,305 14,322
2064 117,922 43,249 40,046 14,687
2065 122,629 44,637 40,876 14,879
2066 127,355 46,521 41,670 15,222
2067 132,164 48,264 42,437 15,497
2068 137,195 50,036 43,246 15,772
2069 142,346 51,629 44,039 15,973
2070 147,652 53,570 44,837 16,267
2071 153,146 55,310 45,637 16,482
2072 158,929 57,574 46,493 16,843
2073 164,948 59,954 47,361 17,215
2074 171,255 61,844 48,255 17,426
2075 177,838 64,357 49,191 17,802
2076 184,485 66,398 50,087 18,027
2077 191,581 69,047 51,045 18,397
2078 198,872 71,232 52,007 18,628
2079 206,441 73,892 52,993 18,968
2080 214,097 76,878 53,928 19,364
2081 222,057 79,750 54,904 19,718
2082 230,325 82,482 55,895 20,016
2083 238,692 85,532 56,849 20,371
2084 247,554 88,136 57,871 20,604
2085 256,837 91,814 58,916 21,061
2086 266,536 95,195 60,017 21,435
2087 276,629 98,515 61,128 21,769
2088 287,134 102,033 62,276 22,130
2089 297,776 105,807 63,386 22,523
2090 308,998 109,354 64,553 22,845
2091 320,122 113,532 65,633 23,277
2092 332,279 117,745 66,868 23,695
2093 344,613 121,534 68,058 24,002
2094 357,401 125,701 69,268 24,362
2095 370,835 130,487 70,544 24,822
2096 384,511 134,881 71,782 25,180
2097 399,178 140,382 73,145 25,724
2098 414,038 144,918 74,457 26,061
2099 429,556 150,324 75,812 26,531
2100 445,448 155,549 77,147 26,939
2101 461,886 161,241 78,513 27,408
2102 478,929 166,846 79,894 27,833
2103 497,001 173,146 81,369 28,347
2104 514,822 179,087 82,714 28,773
2105 533,368 185,310 84,099 29,219


Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Notes: Based on a simulation using the Social Security trustees' 2004
intermediate demographic assumptions and CBO's January 2005
economic assumptions.

[FtWayneBlue]

14. Dennis Kucinich posted information about this same topic

the other day. Wage based indexing is the currently acceptable method. If price based indexing is implemented, it will mean less benefits over time.

[LynnTheDem]

16. Keeping bush's TEMPORARY TAX CUTS for the rich as TEMPORARY

would fund SS for the next CENTURY.

But hey, far more important that bush make his TEMPORARY tax cuts PERMANENT for his base of rich elite HAVES and HAVE-MORES.

So many Americans, so fucking stupid.

[whistle]

18. The office of Budget Management certainly has a rosie outlook

...for the U.S. economy during the next 100 years. We go from a $12.3 trillion economy to one that is over $533 trillion!!!! Do you think if that happens the average American will be able to afford healt5hcare as well as their own private retirement plan? Some thing is not correct here.

Table W-3.

Projected Gross Domestic Product and
Taxable Payroll Under the Scheduled
Benefits Scenario, 1985 to 2105


Actual (through 2003) and expected values

Nominal Real (2005) dollars
Taxable Change Change Taxable Change Change
Year GDP Payroll in GDP in Payroll GDP Payroll in GDP in Payroll
1985 4,220 1,723 0.00 0.00 6,672 2,724 0.00 0.00
1986 4,463 1,844 1.06 1.07 6,907 2,855 1.04 1.05
1987 4,739 1,960 1.06 1.06 7,135 2,951 1.03 1.03
1988 5,104 2,088 1.08 1.07 7,430 3,040 1.04 1.03
1989 5,484 2,240 1.07 1.07 7,689 3,140 1.03 1.03
1990 5,803 2,358 1.06 1.05 7,837 3,184 1.02 1.01
1991 5,996 2,423 1.03 1.03 7,829 3,163 1.00 0.99
1992 6,338 2,533 1.06 1.05 8,084 3,231 1.03 1.02
1993 6,657 2,636 1.05 1.04 8,299 3,286 1.03 1.02
1994 7,072 2,785 1.06 1.06 8,631 3,399 1.04 1.03
1995 7,398 2,919 1.05 1.05 8,851 3,493 1.03 1.03
1996 7,817 3,074 1.06 1.05 9,174 3,607 1.04 1.03
1997 8,304 3,286 1.06 1.07 9,593 3,795 1.05 1.05
1998 8,747 3,516 1.05 1.07 9,989 4,015 1.04 1.06
1999 9,268 3,736 1.06 1.06 10,433 4,206 1.04 1.05
2000 9,817 3,983 1.06 1.07 10,818 4,389 1.04 1.04
2001 10,128 4,181 1.03 1.05 10,899 4,500 1.01 1.03
2002 10,487 4,277 1.04 1.02 11,101 4,528 1.02 1.01
2003 11,004 4,508 1.05 1.05 11,440 4,687 1.03 1.04
2004 11,730 4,482 1.07 0.99 11,947 4,565 1.04 0.97
2005 12,396 4,779 1.06 1.07 12,396 4,779 1.04 1.05
2006 13,058 5,040 1.05 1.05 12,860 4,964 1.04 1.04
2007 13,766 5,315 1.05 1.05 13,342 5,151 1.04 1.04
2008 14,486 5,596 1.05 1.05 13,785 5,326 1.03 1.03
2009 15,211 5,880 1.05 1.05 14,229 5,501 1.03 1.03
2010 15,941 6,165 1.05 1.05 14,639 5,662 1.03 1.03
2011 16,680 6,449 1.05 1.05 15,054 5,821 1.03 1.03
2012 17,437 6,742 1.05 1.05 15,459 5,977 1.03 1.03
2013 18,222 7,042 1.04 1.04 15,874 6,134 1.03 1.03
2014 19,031 7,352 1.04 1.04 16,283 6,291 1.03 1.03
2015 19,864 7,660 1.04 1.04 16,697 6,439 1.03 1.02
2016 20,712 7,997 1.04 1.04 17,110 6,606 1.02 1.03
2017 21,564 8,372 1.04 1.05 17,499 6,794 1.02 1.03
2018 22,376 8,690 1.04 1.04 17,842 6,930 1.02 1.02
2019 23,168 9,038 1.04 1.04 18,146 7,079 1.02 1.02
2020 23,952 9,326 1.03 1.03 18,419 7,172 1.02 1.01
2021 24,759 9,661 1.03 1.04 18,701 7,297 1.02 1.02
2022 25,568 9,906 1.03 1.03 18,961 7,346 1.01 1.01
2023 26,455 10,244 1.03 1.03 19,269 7,461 1.02 1.02
2024 27,392 10,601 1.04 1.03 19,588 7,581 1.02 1.02
2025 28,342 10,972 1.03 1.04 19,894 7,702 1.02 1.02
2026 29,363 11,325 1.04 1.03 20,224 7,800 1.02 1.01
2027 30,397 11,724 1.04 1.04 20,550 7,927 1.02 1.02
2028 31,457 12,041 1.03 1.03 20,883 7,993 1.02 1.01
2029 32,540 12,493 1.03 1.04 21,193 8,136 1.01 1.02
2030 33,657 12,836 1.03 1.03 21,526 8,210 1.02 1.01
2031 34,821 13,278 1.03 1.03 21,852 8,333 1.02 1.02
2032 35,999 13,712 1.03 1.03 22,175 8,447 1.01 1.01
2033 37,247 14,150 1.03 1.03 22,528 8,558 1.02 1.01
2034 38,595 14,679 1.04 1.04 22,916 8,716 1.02 1.02
2035 39,957 15,186 1.04 1.03 23,285 8,850 1.02 1.02
2036 41,386 15,745 1.04 1.04 23,667 9,004 1.02 1.02
2037 42,940 16,289 1.04 1.03 24,106 9,144 1.02 1.02
2038 44,574 16,768 1.04 1.03 24,560 9,239 1.02 1.01
2039 46,301 17,426 1.04 1.04 25,048 9,427 1.02 1.02
2040 48,099 18,179 1.04 1.04 25,532 9,650 1.02 1.02
2041 49,914 18,858 1.04 1.04 26,007 9,826 1.02 1.02
2042 51,835 19,591 1.04 1.04 26,519 10,023 1.02 1.02
2043 53,866 20,211 1.04 1.03 27,044 10,147 1.02 1.01
2044 55,876 20,995 1.04 1.04 27,538 10,347 1.02 1.02
2045 58,046 21,745 1.04 1.04 28,080 10,519 1.02 1.02
2046 60,258 22,560 1.04 1.04 28,610 10,712 1.02 1.02
2047 62,544 23,457 1.04 1.04 29,155 10,935 1.02 1.02
2048 64,920 24,210 1.04 1.03 29,698 11,075 1.02 1.01
2049 67,361 25,213 1.04 1.04 30,249 11,322 1.02 1.02
2050 69,951 26,142 1.04 1.04 30,834 11,524 1.02 1.02
2051 72,695 27,067 1.04 1.04 31,452 11,711 1.02 1.02
2052 75,458 28,007 1.04 1.03 32,044 11,893 1.02 1.02
2053 78,398 29,185 1.04 1.04 32,676 12,164 1.02 1.02
2054 81,331 30,156 1.04 1.03 33,281 12,340 1.02 1.01
2055 84,458 31,274 1.04 1.04 33,919 12,560 1.02 1.02
2056 87,678 32,525 1.04 1.04 34,557 12,819 1.02 1.02
2057 90,982 33,799 1.04 1.04 35,205 13,078 1.02 1.02
2058 94,319 34,991 1.04 1.04 35,817 13,287 1.02 1.02
2059 97,868 36,002 1.04 1.03 36,485 13,422 1.02 1.01
2060 101,550 37,504 1.04 1.04 37,154 13,722 1.02 1.02
2061 105,327 38,828 1.04 1.04 37,820 13,942 1.02 1.02
2062 109,364 40,220 1.04 1.04 38,554 14,179 1.02 1.02
2063 113,599 41,394 1.04 1.03 39,305 14,322 1.02 1.01
2064 117,922 43,249 1.04 1.04 40,046 14,687 1.02 1.03
2065 122,629 44,637 1.04 1.03 40,876 14,879 1.02 1.01
2066 127,355 46,521 1.04 1.04 41,670 15,222 1.02 1.02
2067 132,164 48,264 1.04 1.04 42,437 15,497 1.02 1.02
2068 137,195 50,036 1.04 1.04 43,246 15,772 1.02 1.02
2069 142,346 51,629 1.04 1.03 44,039 15,973 1.02 1.01
2070 147,652 53,570 1.04 1.04 44,837 16,267 1.02 1.02
2071 153,146 55,310 1.04 1.03 45,637 16,482 1.02 1.01
2072 158,929 57,574 1.04 1.04 46,493 16,843 1.02 1.02
2073 164,948 59,954 1.04 1.04 47,361 17,215 1.02 1.02
2074 171,255 61,844 1.04 1.03 48,255 17,426 1.02 1.01
2075 177,838 64,357 1.04 1.04 49,191 17,802 1.02 1.02
2076 184,485 66,398 1.04 1.03 50,087 18,027 1.02 1.01
2077 191,581 69,047 1.04 1.04 51,045 18,397 1.02 1.02
2078 198,872 71,232 1.04 1.03 52,007 18,628 1.02 1.01
2079 206,441 73,892 1.04 1.04 52,993 18,968 1.02 1.02
2080 214,097 76,878 1.04 1.04 53,928 19,364 1.02 1.02
2081 222,057 79,750 1.04 1.04 54,904 19,718 1.02 1.02
2082 230,325 82,482 1.04 1.03 55,895 20,016 1.02 1.02
2083 238,692 85,532 1.04 1.04 56,849 20,371 1.02 1.02
2084 247,554 88,136 1.04 1.03 57,871 20,604 1.02 1.01
2085 256,837 91,814 1.04 1.04 58,916 21,061 1.02 1.02
2086 266,536 95,195 1.04 1.04 60,017 21,435 1.02 1.02
2087 276,629 98,515 1.04 1.03 61,128 21,769 1.02 1.02
2088 287,134 102,033 1.04 1.04 62,276 22,130 1.02 1.02
2089 297,776 105,807 1.04 1.04 63,386 22,523 1.02 1.02
2090 308,998 109,354 1.04 1.03 64,553 22,845 1.02 1.01
2091 320,122 113,532 1.04 1.04 65,633 23,277 1.02 1.02
2092 332,279 117,745 1.04 1.04 66,868 23,695 1.02 1.02
2093 344,613 121,534 1.04 1.03 68,058 24,002 1.02 1.01
2094 357,401 125,701 1.04 1.03 69,268 24,362 1.02 1.02
2095 370,835 130,487 1.04 1.04 70,544 24,822 1.02 1.02
2096 384,511 134,881 1.04 1.03 71,782 25,180 1.02 1.01
2097 399,178 140,382 1.04 1.04 73,145 25,724 1.02 1.02
2098 414,038 144,918 1.04 1.03 74,457 26,061 1.02 1.01
2099 429,556 150,324 1.04 1.04 75,812 26,531 1.02 1.02
2100 445,448 155,549 1.04 1.03 77,147 26,939 1.02 1.02
2101 461,886 161,241 1.04 1.04 78,513 27,408 1.02 1.02
2102 478,929 166,846 1.04 1.03 79,894 27,833 1.02 1.02
2103 497,001 173,146 1.04 1.04 81,369 28,347 1.02 1.02
2104 514,822 179,087 1.04 1.03 82,714 28,773 1.02 1.02
2105 533,368 185,310 1.04 1.03 84,099 29,219 1.02 1.02


Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Notes: Based on a simulation using the Social Security trustees' 2004
intermediate demographic assumptions and CBO's January 2005
economic assumptions.

<link, same as my other two posts>