ChevronTexaco CEO Says Era of Cheap Oil Ending (Peak Oil)

[cthrumatrix]

ChevronTexaco CEO Says Era of Cheap Oil Ending

USA: February 16, 2005


HOUSTON - Roaring demand for energy from Asia coupled with difficulties in accessing oil reserves has resulted in a new energy equation where the days of cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas are numbered, the head of ChevronTexaco Corp. said on Tuesday.


Oil prices have shot up dramatically in the past year thanks to tight supplies and rising demand, prompting a growing crowd within the energy industry to ponder whether sky-high oil prices are here to stay.
"The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending," Dave O'Reilly, chief executive of ChevronTexaco, told a Cambridge Energy Research Associates energy conference.

Demand from Asia, in particular, has been a large factor, he said.

"The new Asian demand is reshaping the marketplace -- and we're seeing the center of gravity of petroleum markets shift to Asia, and in particular to China and India," he said.

snip

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/29567/story.htm

Good thing shrubby has an alternative energy plan cooking !

[cthrumatrix]

1. people...put 2+2 together.... why are we in Iraq?

[hatrack]

2. Weapons of mass destruction, that's why!

No, wait . . . to remove a ruthless dictator! Yeah, that's it!

No, wait . . . to bring freedom to the oppressed Iraqi people! Yeah, that's it!

No, wait . . . to spread freedom throughout the Middle East! Yeah, that's it!

No, wait . . . to fight terrorism over there so we won't have to fight it over here! Yeah, that's it!

[mmonk]

5. cuz

we're a "Christian" nation?

[amber dog democrat]

6. how about payback for 9/11 ?

Never mind that the terrorists came from other countries !

The oil fields are just an added extra !

[barb162]

26. maybe phrase that how could we not be in Iraq? see my #25

[DoYouEverWonder]

3. Time to legalize hemp

Oh no, that would be a cheap source of energy. Couldn't have that now could we?

[John_Shadows_1]

4. The times they are a-changin'

and there's going to be a lot less 'stuff' in these new times - Oil is the basis for producing almost everything in our society. When the Peak hits, I think the term 'adjustment' doesn't quite say what we're going to have to endure.

[screembloodymurder]

38. The solution.

http://www.nanosolar.com/

[DivinBreuvage]

7. This morning the local radio news was playing a report

that gas prices are going to jump by up to 25 cents within the week.

[cthrumatrix]

8. and our govt and politicians get a free pass --- no policy

I say enough of this bullshit...we elected them and we'll fire their asses in 2006

[screembloodymurder]

37. Why wait?

Impeach.

[ryan_cats]

10. Here in Cailfornia they already jumped

They've already gone up from a low (ha ha) of $1.87 a gallon to over $2.00 a gallon with the trend being upwards.

Another scam is diesel prices. How come diesel is higher than premium, because the vehicles get better mileage. I'd like to get a VW diesel and get 50mpg plus I'd like to try making biodiesel.

[Delphinus]

27. Already happened.

In the time it took me this morning to take a friend to the doctor and come back, the price had jumped 20 cents.

[ryan_cats]

9. How much profit did they make last quarter?

How much profit did they make last quarter?
I forget which oil company it was but they posted over a 2 Billion profit.

I think that's obscene. Couple that with the fact that we used our military to get them a source of cheap oil and we are getting royally screwed!

[SammyWinstonJack]

12. They should have fork over those obscene and undeserved

profits for many reasons not the least being the use of our military to garner their obscene profits.

[ryan_cats]

15. Good idea

They should fork over part of it to the family members of soldiers killed in their oil war.

[depakid]

42. I completely agree

and have thought so every time they've been unjustly enriched by various "crises," over the years, many of have either been manufactured or exacerbated by their own fraud and market manipulation.

One of the things that pissed me off most about Clinton- and there were any- is that the man simply had no integrity when it came to dealing responsibly with the energy corporations. FERC and DOE under Clinton may not have been as egregious as they are under Bush- but they weren't by any stretch of the imagination interested in holding companies accountable or setting policy in the public interest.

[FreedomAngel82]

13. Sad

I guess we all better get ready to do like my dad and ride our bike's to work and school. Us normal regular folk soon won't have to worry about buying gas because we won't be able to buy it.

[ryan_cats]

16. Biodiesel

I'm looking into biodiesel made from waste vegetable oil, motor oil, basically any waste oil. Of course you have to have a diesel car and the equipment to make it but it's not too complicated.

[AP]

22. Imagine how appropriate an actual progressive tax on corp income would be.

Corporations pay an effective income tax rate of less than something like 5% despite these tax rates:

Corporate Income Tax Rates--2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000

$0 to $50,000: 15%
50,000 to 75,000: 25%
75,000 to 100,000: 34%
100,000 to 335,000: 39%
335,000 to 10,000,000: 34%
10,000,000 to 15,000,000: 35%
15,000,000 to 18,333,333: 38%
18,333,333 to ..........: 35%

(And, BTW, why the hell to businesses making between 100K and 335K pay the highest rates??? Could it be so that no small business can grow big enough to compete with the big businesses?)

So, why don't we have an Alt Min Inc Tax for corps that starts at 5% and climbs, say 1.5% for every 1mil to 2 mil in income up to, say, 25%?

I think an oil company with 2 billion in profits wouldn't be hurt too much by that, and all those small startups trying to do solar and wind and other renewable energy business wouldn't be getting screwed by the tax code.

[ryan_cats]

30. Good ideas

Do you have sources for that table? It's not that I don't believe you but I want to forward it to my brother to shut him up.

That %39 sure looks to be a small business killer. I thought jr was big on the value of small businesses. Could it be that he's a fraud?

I would also penalize obviously American companies that move off shore to reap the benefits of the Bahamas' tax system.

I see nothing wrong with a progressive tax. I like your idea too.

We should encourage small businesses and make up the tax difference by increasing larger corporation's tax rate, to me, that would be best for America.

2 billion profit is totally obscene, especially while they're saying at the same time that high gas prices are the results of fed and state taxes.

[AP]

34. Here's the link

http://www.smbiz.com/sbrl001.html

[ryan_cats]

35. Thank You!

[gulfcoastliberal]

11. Damn that CEO, giving legitimacy to peak oil!

- sarcasm

Why have DUers been railing against peak oil lately?

[hatrack]

14. I wouldn't say it's very many DUers

Judging by the 180+ post flamewar now underway . . . :hi:

[mattclearing]

32. He didn't say war and death and destruction were inevitable.

That's what I was talking about.

[DoYouEverWonder]

17. So tell me again, W thinks Social Security is a Crisis

but he does nothing to end our dependency on oil?

Whose interests is he protecting? Certainly not ours.

[cthrumatrix]

18. and the "liberal media" refuses to ever mention this area

[DoYouEverWonder]

19. Instead of spending a billion a week in Iraq

we could be developing all kinds of alternative technology and putting Americans to work in high paying jobs. Gee what a concept.

[barb162]

25. He invaded Iraq for oil (oh sorry WMD, sorry, Saddam's evil, etc)

Face it, he can't do anything much other than invade oil countries. If he tried to get the American people to drive fuel-efficient vehicles or raise the price of gasoline by taxing the living hell out of it, the American people would throw out the Republicans. The American people want cheap oil and don't want to deal with the fact it isn't there anymore.

[Frederik]

20. And ChevronTexaco

and the rest of the cartel are cashing in like never before. I remain sceptical.

[Solon]

21. Only one problem with that...

They can only cash in if demand stays high, but if oil becomes too expensive, then they will lose money. If they are saying they CAN'T increase production, then they are in deep shit, to put it simply. Saudi Arabia, to give an example, wanted oil to be around 30 dollars a barrel for the past year, yet they couldn't meet that goal, this is becoming a problem for them.

[Frederik]

33. Well,

That's what they're saying. But as I understand, one of the premises of the "peak oil equals imminent disaster" line of thinking is that demand is going to keep rising no matter what, right? And with China and India ever more energy-thirsty, that is certainly how it looks.

So if demand is going up anyway, why shouldn't SA, OPEC and the oil companies be more than happy with $50 a barrel? And ejaculating themselves over $80 a barrel? Peak's coming one way or another someday but I doubt it's the reason for the current price surge. Stoppage in Iraq and add a dash of market manipulation and old robber baronism. I don't have a link handy, but I just read earlier today that profits were soaring like never before for the oil companies.

But of course if they can't keep up with the demand, then there's going to be problems... for everyone else.

[mmonk]

24. My sources have said

their profits are heading down but their stock prices are high compared to P/E ratios. I took profit yesterday and put it into natural gas discoveries and coal.

[hatrack]

28. Pemex's debt doubled in one year

Why? Because they're having to borrow big, big bucks to pay for exploration elsewhere now that Cantarell's decline is inescapable.

Chevron/Texaco announced that they could replace only 18% of 2003's reserve capacity in 2004. Look for similarly high levels of indebtedness for C/T, assuming that they continue to attempt to replace diminishing reserves.

[Nimrod]

23. Was he salivating?

Just wondering.

[radwriter0555]

29. Then why are they and other oil cos shutting down "WILDLY PROFITABLE"

oil fields?

http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/utilities/nw/nw004257.php3

HORSLEY: Oil production in Kern County is declining, but state officials say there's at least 20 years worth of oil left in the ground there. In fact, ChevronTexaco plans to increase its drilling in the region. Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, whose constituents are also paying more than $2 a gallon for gasoline, has asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the planned refinery shutdown. California's attorney general is also investigating. But Tom Dressler, of the attorney general's office, says this may turn out to be a problem that law enforcement can't solve.

HORSLEY: In response to the criticism, Shell says it's willing to sell the Bakersfield refinery, but that so far it has not received any credible offers. California Senator Barbara Boxer disputes the company's claim that the refinery is not economically viable. She points to internal documents showing the plant brought in more money per gallon for Shell than seven other refineries.

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=28449

SANTA MONICA, Calif., April 6 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights today released internal Shell documents showing the oil refiner is set to close and demolish its Bakersfield refinery despite the fact the site had the biggest refinery margins, or profits per gallon, of any Shell refinery in the nation as of yesterday.

Shell had claimed it was not economically viable to keep the refinery open and has refused to put it up for sale. Bakersfield supplies 2 percent of the state's gasoline and only 13 refineries feed California's tight gasoline supply (down from 37 in 1983).

An April 5th internal Shell document released today by FTCR shows that Bakersfield's refining margin at $23.01 per barrel, or about 55 cents profit per gallon, topped all of Shell's refineries in the nation. That means, for example, that margins are 36 cents per gallon higher in Bakersfield than in Port Arthur, Texas. The internal document comments under the category of refinery margins "Wow."

[cthrumatrix]

36. less refining = less oil available (or there is less to be refined in the

future)

[applegrove]

31. As they rub their hands together!!

[Deja Q]

39. We're already past the point.

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/print/xx.html

That's why * wants to topple the MIddle East. To get the oil for ourselves. Bushco knows that. And so do we. Yet we still whine of morality and cheap three word slogans, none of which says "Peak oil now" or "peak oil kills us all" or anything else that MIGHT get somebody's attention. Doi, duh, fuckin' a, the phrase "no war for oil" is as trite as bellbottoms so let's change the tune already.

[cthrumatrix]

41. how reall is that when other countries would be against the US exporting

oil for OUR needs...we can't fight off the world.

[Trish1168]

40. Caspian sea oil

Is the richest reserve in the world. That's why we wanted a presence over in Iraq and Afghanistan....we have troops in Uzbekistan, etc.

Yes, demand will exceed supply soon, but the cost now is due to the weak dollar more than supply/demand. Remember how it went up all at once last year? This didn't happen just because someone had a light bulb go off in their head regarding supply/demand.

My take is this.

We need heavy troop presence in the caspian sea region, because these whacko's in W's world want world domination. They are tanking the economy on purpose (in my opinion), and I suspect they are looking to take over the world once the world economy collapses. I guess they figure the government can survive if we control the oil. They seem to be preparing for something big though. The pain weapon to control for riots in 2007 is telling. And maybe they are taking away our civil liberties in preparation for what they know is coming down the pike.

After an economic collapse is usually when fascist regimes take over and spread (it was an economic collapse that sparked Hitler's rise to power).

Alright, so maybe I'm being tin-hat about all this...but can anyone come up with a better scenario?

:tinfoilhat:

[Spinoza]

43. The crazy thing is

I thought invading Iraq should mean LOWER oil prices. You know, a big new source of supply under American control. I am sure this is what Bush expected. Instead, prices have hit the roof. Is this what Bush actually wanted, or did he miscalculate?

[Frederik]

44. The Iraqis

were supposed to be happy about the occupation and then help to rebuild the oil industry for ChevronTexaco and Exxon Mobil. Somehow it didn't work out that way, and thus the oil output is actually down from Saddam's time. That's part of the explanation for the high oil price.