http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3707
Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. He is the author or editor of 16 books on international relations, and author of The Coming War with China over Taiwan: Inevitable or Avoidable? (forthcoming, Palgrave). Justin Logan is a research assistant at the Cato Institute.
Two factors have historically deterred the People's Republic of China from attempting to retake Taiwan by force: technologically superior Taiwanese weaponry and concern that the United States might intervene with its own military forces. Until recently, Taiwan took seriously its responsibility to purchase arms to defend itself. Unfortunately, the Taiwanese people seem increasingly unconcerned about providing for their own defense, and instead want to rely on an implied U.S. security commitment. If the United States does not force Taiwan to get serious about its own security, the result could be an emboldened China and the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait. snip
Taiwan's lack of seriousness is unacceptable because it has the effect of pushing the United States to the forefront of the cross-Strait conflict. China's purchases of advanced KILO class submarines and Sukhoi fighter planes from Russia are eroding Taiwan's qualitative advantage. Taiwan's anti-submarine warfare capabilities are insufficient and dwindling, and its air supremacy is waning in the face of China's acquisitions. All of these trends are getting worse, and creating a sense in China that it may soon be able to take Taiwan by force or intimidate the Taiwanese into surrender.
While it is unfortunate that the democracy on Taiwan faces a confrontation with communist China, Americans should certainly not take Taiwan's security more seriously than do its own citizens. If they decide that social spending is more important than deterring a possible takeover attempt by the PRC, that is their decision. They should not be allowed to free ride on the expectation that the United States will save them in the event of a crisis.
The United States should continue, under the obligation of the TRA, to sell Taiwan defensive arms with which it can deter a Chinese attack. However, at the same time, Washington should indicate to Taiwan that it does not intend to involve itself in a war in the Taiwan Strait. As things stand now, the Taiwanese increasingly expect that the United States will defend them, and the Chinese increasingly suspect that it will not. That is the worst of both worlds, and portends a perilous situation for all parties involved.
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