Why do pundits feel that Dean will alienate swing voters?

[Stuckinthebush]

I have seen this in a few places recently - Dean can excite the base, but will not get swing voters. This is why the GOP wants Dean to be the nominee.

Now, this could be the GOP using some form of psychological manipulation, or it could be true.

As a Dean supporter, I am interested in his appeal to swing voters. If there is a serious problem, I'd like to know about it.

To my eyes, I would see that Dean would be a swing voter magnet. Most swing voters vote on pocket book issues, right? So a fiscally responsible Democrat who is moderate on many issues should appeal to this group. Plus, his stance on gun control and the dealth penalty are not exactly liberal. So, my thought is that this will be attractive to folks who are in the middle.

The only two issues I can think of that might be considered as swing voter turn-offs by the punditry are his anti-war stance and his stance on GLBT issues.

First, I would say that the anti-war crowd is beginning to look vidicated. You see a lot of middle ground people beginning to question this farce, so this may not be a problem for Dean. I wonder if there is less enthusiasm for Bush as a war monger than the pundits would have us believe.

Secondly, the GLBT issue may be problematic in terms of attracting swing voters, but when everything else is piled up against the Bush administration, this issue is probably so far down on the radar of most swing voters, that it won't matter.

Anyway, I am interested in other DUers take on this.

And, please, no flames on Dean. How about a good, dry, analytical discussion?

[gWbush is Mabus]

1. Dean as a centrist

will get the swing voters.

it is a GOP-controlled media out there folks.

[deutsey]

2. I think many pundits are enmeshed in Officialdom

The reason I like Dean (among the many issues we agree on) is that I feel he can mobilize a broad coalition of center/left/independent voters. I've seen this personally; this is anecdotal, but in my Meetup group alone there are Greens, centrist Democrats (including a couple local elected officials), independents, and disgruntled Dems like myself.

I think many pundits are just not in touch with what's happening outside official interpretations of reality. I think back in the early to mid-summer when Margaret Carlson assured everyone that Dean's star was fading. Shortly afterward, Dean's campaign surprised everyone by raising $500,000 in small contributions in a single weekend.

Just my opinion.

[CWebster]

12. And a good opinion

it was

[rogerashton]

3. What is being said has more to do with tone

than with content. Dean is said to be strident, or something like that.

I DON'T have a lot of confidence that the sheeple can get past tone to content. However, tone can have unpredictable consequences. If Dean is perceived (as McCain was) as a straight-talker rather than an ideologue, that will work to his advantage. Many cadidate suffer from being too controlled.

[liberalnurse]

4. Well I see many swing voters at the Meet-ups.

I guess the pundants never went to a Dean Meet-Up. I see Greens, Republicans, Undecided, Independents....

He inspires the masses. Good grassroot efforts by fellow Dean supporters is the answer. Share videos, literature, go to a rally....This is how folks are motivated. You just have to engage in education to the willing. There are a lot of people out there that just don't know where to start and have questions and concerns about our future...... Swing voters or untapped voters are there to be enlightened. Dean has a tremendous library of informational tool.

See his website....

www.deanforamerica.com

[Eloriel]

5. IMO the pundits who hawk on this point are ignorant of

who it is supporting Dean at this point. Yes, liberals (some -- many liberals are supporting Kucinich). Yes, other parts of the Dem base. BUT in appearance after appearance about half the people there are folks who have NEVER been involved in politics before.

He's also bringing disaffected Republicans in (the "good ones"), as well as Independents and others.

I just don't get the charge that he can't appeal to swing voters. He already has.

Eloriel

Eloriel

[Stuckinthebush]

25. This is what confuses me

I see a number of people here on DU that have indicated swing voters are coming to the meet-ups.

I don't want to simply write off the pundits as ill informed, because I want to have an open mind about all of Deans possible problems, but it is hard to see where they are coming from with this line of argument.

[Ohio Dem]

6. The media keeps calling him a liberal.

And I have no idea why. He's to the right of most of the candidates on issues like gun control.

I can see him alienating the left before I can see him alienating the center.

But remember who owns the media.

[niceypoo]

7. Pundits you say?

Gasp! It must be true then!!

[sfecap]

8. The pundits are invariably wrong...

They have been wrong on Dean from the beginning.

He won't raise enough money - wrong.

He is too unknown to get a campaign going - wrong.

He's too left wing - wrong.

He's an angry man and that will alienate people - wrong.

I have a number of moderate republican union member coworkers who have approached me over the last few weeks wanting info on Dean. After checking him out they have all come back and expressed their support for Dean over *. If he gets the nomination they will vote for him.

Dean will get many of the swing voters, and the pundits will be proven wrong again...

(Wait until October when they release the third quarter fundraising numbers...the pundits will really have something to talk about.)

[KoKo]

9. The Right Wing Pundits (which is mostly what's out there) are afraid of

him........what else is new......they lie about Dem candidates. Innuendo and lies.

[CWebster]

10. Here is a clue

Whoever it is they focus on is the one that matters. What they say doesn't.

[Stuckinthebush]

26. Good point

The focus is the key.

[noonwitch]

11. It's the domestic partnership thing he supported as governor

This is why the media is labelling him some type of ultra liberal. I don't think that this makes him a liberal, it makes him a rational human being that doesn't feel the government should be deciding what is and isn't a legitimate relationship between consenting adults.

[Hamlette]

13. Dean bugs me

I'm not a swing voter but Dean strikes me as arrogant, elitist and hot tempered. His presence reminds me of Gore, stiff, ill at ease.

Not one of these things means he'd be a bad president but they do make him a bad candidate.

[SeattleRob]

32. Pundits

You are just repeating the misinformation of the lying pundits. What we are seeing a repeat of what happened in 2000. Check out ww.dailyhowler.com for a factual look at the systematic character assasination of Al Gore in 2000.

They are up to their dirty tricks again with Dean and I hear shades of it wiuth Gen. Clark. Last night, for example, on CNN Paula Zann asked people to comment on Clark's "temper." What kind of B.S. is this? Have you heard these people talk about GW's temper? This is all smoke an mirrors by the elite and pampered Beltway pundits. These are people who all rub elbows together at the same cocktail parties, and people who have absoultely no clue or care about what is going on in the real world outside of Washington.

Whomever gets nominated by the Democrats will be subjected to a nonstop barrage of falsehoods and misinformation. It is up to us to counter the lying propaganda with the ultimate weapon - the truth!

[stickdog]

37. Dean is real and has obvious human weaknesses.

In contrast, Gore was a cross between a school marm and an automaton.

[Racenut20]

14. Because I am a swing voter

And he irritates me.

[Stuckinthebush]

27. What exactly about him irritates you?

I started a thread last week that detailed a conversation I had with my sister about Dean. She is what I would call a non-engaged voter who probably voted for Bush.

She said he seems "angry". When I detail why he should be angry, she responded that it didn't matter if he should be angry, it only matters that he comes across that way.

So, I can see where she is coming from there.

[papau]

15. Swing voters do not want confrontation - just smiles and positive outlook

If he pushes changes for better future that I know we could have theme, Dean, or any Dem, will be fine.

Unless the media wants to lie - like they did with Gore - and then there is little any Dem can do.

[Q]

16. The need to 'appeal' to swing voters is a myth...

...invented by Dem RWingers in an effort to divide the party into opposing camps...thus watering down the vote on the left.

- No candidate can appeal to everyone...but doesn't it make more sense to try to appeal to the traditional dem base than the 'unknown' of so-called swing voters.

[uptohere]

21. myth huh ?

candidates successful at attracting swing votes: Clinton, Carter, Kennedy, Johnson, Bush 1, Bush 2, Reagan, Nixon

candidates unsuccessful at attracting swing votes: McGovern, Humphrey, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore

May want to rethink that myth thing.

[Stuckinthebush]

28. Actually, Gore did attract swing voters

But I agree with your point.

Swing voters are vital to winning the general election.

There are roughly 1/3 of the voters in each camp. That leaves 1/3 of the voters in the middle. You can't win without them.

[uptohere]

34. true he did, but not successfully

they all get some of them, the trick is in getting more than your half. and, as we have discovered, getting them in the right places. of course getting them in your home state should have been easier than it proved to be for him.

[stickdog]

38. Umm.

Gore won.

[uptohere]

41. Umm

if he had attracted swing voters effectively, he would be in the White House insted of just having "won".

[Atlant]

17. Dean *WILL* alienate swing voters; they'll be alienated from *BUSH*!

Dean WILL alienate swing voters; they'll be alienated from BUSH,
and that's why the punditocracy is opposed to the idea.

Atlant

[ShimokitaJer]

18. I agree that Dean will appeal to the center

And I don't mean the center of the DLC, which tries to co-opt the Republican agenda. I'm talking about the great number of Americans, regardless of party affiliation, who are finally beginning to see Bush for what he is. I agree that Dean is more a populist than a liberal, but I think that's what it will take to get Democratic issues recognized.

Despite the GOP claim that common God-fearing Americans are on their side, polls consistently show that issues like health care, environmental protection, education, and workers' rights are extremely important to middle America. The GOP has done a great job of convincing many of these people that Democrats are irrelevent and care only about gay rights, abortion, and attacking the president. That might work if the public was convinced that the GOP had their best interests in mind, but as it has become clear that the Bush administration has an agenda that has very little to do with the prosperity of the common man, traditionally Republican voters are turning away from him.

It's in the GOP's best interests to paint the Democrats and Republicans as polar opposites, and it has been very successful in doing so. Even many on DU think that any attempt to appeal to the center is evil, even if it advances Democratic party principles. The GOP paint Dean as too liberal not to convince the American people of that fact -- very few of them are watching -- but rather to convince us Democrats that the GOP think so. It has caused a backlash among non-Dean supporters who are convinced that Dean has somehow duped all his supporters into thinking he's McGovern. If it actually came down to Bush vs. Dean, Dean's fiscal record would make it impossible to paint him as too liberal to the American public.

Despite frequent evidence to the contrary, I continue to have faith that the American people can see what is going on when they choose to look. Despite the shoddy media coverage, Americans could have seen Bush's rationale for invading Iraq for what it was if so many of them hadn't been after revenge, even if it were against the wrong target, for 9/11. Right now, Americans are choosing to look at Bush's policies and they are being revealed as crap. They can recognize "jobless recovery" and "end of <major> military operations" as smoke and mirrors and they are looking for someone to tell them a way out.

I believe Dean would have a very strong appeal to these voters. Yes, the idealistic liberal thing to do would be to support Kucinich or Sharpton. But for those of us on the liberal side of the fence who haven't fallen for the rhetoric that all conservatives are evil and all who follow them are sheep, there's far more to be gained for liberal causes by supporting someone who can work constructively with the other side.

[CWebster]

19. Exceptionally well said

says it for me too.

[corporalclegg9]

23. Excellent!

Thank you SO much for that post! I agree 100%!

[KaraokeKarlton]

20. I'm a swing voter and Dean is the only one I trust

What the pundits fail to realize is that it's a whole new base. Dean has attracted so many new people to politics that the base has changed entirely. It's not "liberal" anymore. It's a melting pot of all political types. Anyone who claims that Dean doesn't appeal to swing voters and moderates have no idea what they're talking about. As NH polls have indicated, Dean is the most popular candidate with swing voters and Independents in NH.

[stickdog]

22. He won't. He'll attract them in droves. Just look at the NH numbers. (NT)

[hatrack]

24. Potomac Myopia

I'm convinced that the vast majority of the pundits see the world as a small, square map.

It's bounded by Rockville and Silver Spring and Anacostia and Prince George County. Beyond the edges of the map lurks the dark unknown. Elegantly rendered illustrations along the borders of the map display menacing NASCAR tracks, scary strip malls, frightening factories and trailer parks of terror, all neatly labeled with the inscription "Here Be Joe Sixpacks".

They know nothing - NOTHING - of the concerns and worries of ordinary people. For that matter, they don't know any ordinary people.

How much time do people like George Will, Cokie Roberts, David Broder, David Horowitz or Jonah Goldberg spend in truck stops along I-80 in Nebraska, in small town diners in the mountains of Arkansas, at dollar stores in the Central Valley of California or in medical clinics in East LA? Simple - zero. You can't even pretend to have your finger on America's pulse if all you do is pontificate on television and spend the remainder of your time reading the National Journal, checking poll numbers, doing book tours and going to each others' cocktail parties.

The punditocracy collectively remind me of nothing so much as George I, stunned and amazed at computer scanners in grocery stores.

They wouldn't know an ordinary American if he or she walked up and kicked them in their pampered butts with a steel-toed boot. Fuck 'em.

[Stuckinthebush]

30. LOL!

I can imagine that map with pictures of serpents around the South and Mid-West with the heading "Thar Be Dragons!"

I do find that when I am in DC - where I have to go three or four times each year - that I feel disconnected just by being there. I can see how people inside the Beltway would be just as disconnected, but may not realize it.

[sangh0]

29. Very simple - Iraq

"Swing voters" tend to be very supportive of the military and military actions, sometimes to the point of jingoism. Even if they come around to the view that the Iraq invasion was a mistake, they may still not sympathize with Dean. They may feel that the moment our soldiers are embarking on a dangerous mission is NOT the time to criticize (and undermine) their mission. Many of them have a reflexive hostility to anything that has the slightest whiff of a 60's anti-war, hippie, mentality. Though this description does NOT apply to Dean, these swing voters might not spend enough time to learn this, and instead reject Dean because of his being portrayed as an "anti-war leftist"

[ShimokitaJer]

31. Bush is far more vulnerable on this than Dean

But we need to do is to change the attitude that "supporting the war" is the same as "supporting the troops."

Bush's cutting of veterans' benefits and separation pay, the increase in the length of tours of duty, the premature calling an end to the war in Iraq and the incompentence in planning for the postwar, and his military posturing are resulting in a serious backlash against Bush within the military. And the growing costs and lack of results is breeding resentment among those who supported the war. The costs in money and human life in Iraq are acceptable only if the American people are convinced it was done for the safety of the nation, and the Bush administration's reasoning is falling apart a little more every day. There is an incredble amount of resentment over the war that can shift very easily from "unnamed Arabs" to Bush as it becomes clear that he was pursuing a different agenda than the one he sold.

Don't imagine that middle-American conservatives are simply "pro-war." They may be conditioned to dismiss "peaceniks," but they will rail against a war conducted for personal or political gain.

[sangh0]

33. Yes and no

But we need to do is to change the attitude that "supporting the war" is the same as "supporting the troops."

The conflating of these two is an old traditioin in the US. It's not going to change in the next 15 months.

Bush's cutting of veterans' benefits and separation pay, the increase in the length of tours of duty, the premature calling an end to the war in Iraq and the incompentence in planning for the postwar, and his military posturing are resulting in a serious backlash against Bush within the military.

True but one doesn't need to have opposed the Iraqi resolution in order to make these isssues.

And the growing costs and lack of results is breeding resentment among those who supported the war. The costs in money and human life in Iraq are acceptable only if the American people are convinced it was done for the safety of the nation, and the Bush administration's reasoning is falling apart a little more every day. There is an incredble amount of resentment over the war that can shift very easily from "unnamed Arabs" to Bush as it becomes clear that he was pursuing a different agenda than the one he sold.

Again, true but I don't think that necesarily means that these swing voters are going to reject candidates the voted for the resolution, or accept those that opposed it.

Don't imagine that middle-American conservatives are simply "pro-war." They may be conditioned to dismiss "peaceniks," but they will rail against a war conducted for personal or political gain.

They may rail against the war eventually, but that doesn't mean they will support someone they perceive as a "peacenik". Many of them might be more attracted to someone like Clark, who opposed the war but cannot be (mis)portrayed as a "peacenik"

[LightTheMatch]

39. Actually, I had an idea for this...

I thought that one of the ways to counter this would be for the Meetups to, on their own (independent from the Dean campaign), to put together care packages for the troops in Iraq. Get lots of press, but make it clear that it's totally separate from the campaign ... it's the actual PEOPLE who are Dean supporters making this happen.

Something like this would make some of the "common thinking" about Dean turn on its head almost immediately, and could be brought up during the general election campaign over and over and over again.

[stickdog]

40. Bullshit.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_02/020503C.htm

In February, 7 out of 10 independents said they didn't want to invade Iraq without UN help and approval.

http://msnbc.com/news/966489.asp?0sl=-44

64% of independents are AGAINST Bush's request for $87 billion for Iraq.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/9/8/220608.shtml

Independents DISAPPROVE of Bush's handling of Iraq by a 52 percent to 44 percent margin.

This isn't the first time I've showed you the numbers, sangh0. So why do you keep spreading misinformation on this subject?

[chadm]

35. Because the pundits are scare of anybody

not 100% serving the corporate master. Therefore, they'll say anything to stop said person. That simple.

[janx]

36. Because

the DLC tells them so.