If the patterns hold true next month will be a very bad one in Iraq

[Alex146]

In September 2003 there were 33 coalition soldiers killed in Iraq, an all time low for the war. Next month it had risen to 47 killed and in November all bloody hell broke lose and 110 died. The violence dropped off to a low of 23 killed in Feb of 2004. Next month there was a rise in violence and then April became the bloodiest month of the occupation with 140 dead. Many of the increases in violence have been preceded by less bloody months and some of the biggest outbreaks have been preceded by a lull and then a slight uptick in violence. March was one of those more peaceful months and April seems to be more violent, if the pattern stays the same we could be in for far worse next month.

[The Doctor.]

1. Good study.

I'm interested (but not looking forward to) events for the next few months.

I am certainly hoping that, by some miracle, Iraq does become a free and thriving Democracy.

But I will not hold my breath.

Meanwhile, in just a few minutes, Faux news will begin making the case for an American invasion of Iran.

"Iran nuclear threat" or something.

[JoseC]

2. Constant learning curve

We are always changing the way things go down over there. I hope of coarse that things go better everyday, the Iraqis are going to become a much bigger target for the terrorists that must not let US or Iraq have any victory. We are training more Iraqis everyday to take over policing and patrol duties and we need to make sure they are getting the best equipment. It's going to be alright

[The Doctor.]

3. True, but...

Iraqi security forces are stil bailing at the drop of a hat.

I'd love to see Iraq become a thriving Democracy, but the disparate factions are not going to stop their more fanatical elements from putting pressure where they can use it most.

This may result in stability, but - it will be tenuous at best.

So by that, did you mean it's ok that it will be more Iraqis than Americans getting killed?

Quote: "the Iraqis are going to become a much bigger target for the terrorists"

That's a bit unsettling to hear.