Virginia/DC-area real estate boom?

[OneGrassRoot]

I have * supporter relatives with in-laws who have lived in the Virginia/DC area since the early 90s. Evidently there has been a real estate boom since that time?

I just read how since 2000 the number of lobbyists has doubled which could explain some of the recent boom. Not to mention other "big government" aspects to BushCo.

If anyone here lives in that area, is it true the boom has been going on for so long and, if so, to what is it attributed?

Thanks.......:hi:

[Zynx]

1. I don't live there, but there definately has been one.

NOVA and the Maryland D.C. suburbs have seen an enormous amount of building and fairly signficant price increases that have occurred largely due to heavy population growth, although the price increases have now gotten somewhat out of hand.

[lanlady]

2. all true

I've lived in the area since 1994, and this has been quite an extended "boom." Attributable not only to expansion of government and defense industries but also to many internet and hi-tech companies moving in. I think it's slowing down now: homes are starting to sit on the market much longer than before. But they keep building thousands of new townhouses in my county in No. Virginia.

[godai]

3. I agree

Over the past few years, large expansion in contractors and homeland security. These are high paying jobs and 2 income families can afford the many $500K homes being built. One other factor is a significant number of people owning 2 homes, renting the second to pay the mortgage. They count on appreciation to make profit out of this and, up to now, it has been happening but increasingly frequent warning signs that this won't go on much longer.

We've been here since the 70s. Have parlayed an $80K house, plus savings, into a $750K house, with no mortgage. Others have done much better. I read a story of someone who, about 7 years ago, bought a $150K townhouse and, through 4-5 buys/sells, recently purchased a $750K house, paying cash. But, unless you move to a less expensive area, the money is all tied up in the house, or the next one you buy. Good deal for those who will inherit it though!

Townhomes are commonly $500K, up to $1 Million in highly developed areas such as Rockville, MD.

The amount of building in NOVA is amazing. Many 6000 home developments, one is 9000 homes. Fortunately where I live there are a lot of golf course communities, where the golf course takes up land that won't contain houses. I do notice resale homes sitting for months though, since new houses are under construction close by.

Living here, you get used to this and it is somewhat surprising to hear that the entire country is not in the same boom, but I know that this is true from reading articles about the localized boom only in certain parts of the country.

[OneGrassRoot]

4. Very interesting....thanks to you all *S* n/t

[Captain Hilts]

5. It's been going on for a long time. Before Bush, before Clinton...

I live in Chevy Chase, and the whole area is becoming unaffordable to anyone who hasn't inherited a lot of money or doesn't have a doctor or an attorney in the family.

That's why they're paving Loudon County in Va. and Germantown and Gaithersburg in MD.

[OneGrassRoot]

6. any thoughts as to why?

Why such an extended boom in one part of the country? How linked to government is it?

[rbajai]

9. TONS of lobbyists, lawyers, & politicians in DC area

who have all the $$$ they want to to spend on housing, and I guess because it's a little closer than the Maryland suburbs, many prefer to live in the Northern Virginia suburbs such as Falls Church, McLean, Annandale, Alexandria, and a little further out - Reston, Herndon, and Sterling. I grew up in the Maryland suburbs just outside the Beltway off Connecticut Ave.

Lobbyists are a huge factor in DC's housing bubble. One time I heard that just a few years ago, there were not NEARLY as many lobbyists in DC as there are now. That's why they say "Bu$hco" - because with *, it's all about money, power, and access. The companies know this so they infiltrate Washington with TONS of lobbyists. This furthers the notion that America is not BY the people and FOR the people anymore - it's by the CORPORATIONS (through their money/power/connections in Congress) and FOR THE CORPORATIONS. This is called CORPORATE FASCISM. And it disgusts me to the hilt.

I digress. Anyhow, another reason for the housing boom in DC is the increasing number of government contractors in the area as one of *'s practices of course is to give more and more contracts to those contractors who will support him and the Republican party. Revolving door type thing. But DC has TONS of government contractors who feed off taxpayer dollars. I did work for a couple of them. I hated it.

[AirAmFan]

21. An economist who specializes in the DC area housing market estimates that

every 100 new Federal jobs results in increased demand for homes of 64 units.

Dubya's record of no vetoes of any proposed spending by Hastert and company is the engine driving a DC housing bubble, according to Stephen Fuller:

From http://gazette.gmu.edu/articles/7180 :

"Wednesday, Sept. 21, WAVY-TV

Northern Virginia Housing Market Slows

A keynote speaker at an annual economic summit for real estate agents says the Washington area is still among the nation's strongest for new jobs, but there aren't enough housing units being built to meet demand. Stephen Fuller co-directs George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis. He says last year alone, the addition of 83,000 new jobs meant the area needed an additional 53,000 homes. But only 25,000 were built. There was some concern when housing sales in northern Virginia dropped seven percent in July compared with that month a year ago. In August, there was a four percent drop. But prices have remained steady. And Fuller says a $50,000 annual equity increase in the average single-family home is nothing to complain about."

[rbajai]

8. And then the tradeoff -

although those areas are further out and not quite as pricey as say, Bethesda, you trade slightly lower prices for a HEINOUS commute through Beltway gridlock. A 1-1/2 hour commute in DC is about the average.

[rbajai]

12. Agreed that Chevy Chase, Maryland has ALWAYS been $$$

and it has always been well-known that if you live in Chevy Chase you must have some serious dough. I cannot imagine what it is like now - if there were ANY homes for under 1 Million I'd be surprised. For those who want to know, Chevy Chase is an affluent Maryland suburb just north of DC city limits. I always enjoyed the insanity of driving through Chevy Chase Circle along Connecticut Ave. Be prepared for lots of beeping if you ever go through there!

As far as the duration of the housing boom, I have to disagree. During the HW Bush recession, the housing market was in a serious slump. Down the line here I mentioned that my father had a hard time selling his Kensington home in 1995 - sat on the market for nearly one year before finally selling. Kensington kinda borders on Chevy Chase with just a little bit of Bethesda in between, at least where we lived along Connecticut Ave. north of Beach Drive.

[rbajai]

7. We moved the hell out of the DC area because of high

housing costs. In 2000 it was crazy and we swore with all the tech layoffs (of which I was caught up in) the bubble would pop. I am very surprised that prices are still going up. But the bubble pop is STILL coming...just a matter of time. It's the natural cycle - what goes up MUST come down.

I saw bidding wars, houses snatched the minute they went on the market, rising prices, etc. At the time we were in a one bedroom apt in Falls Church and assesed that we would NEVER be able to afford anything more than that. So we saved our $$$ and moved the hell out of there.

I disagree that people can TRULY afford $500K homes. The key is risky creative financing and DEBT DEBT DEBT. How the hell can even a two income family making $130,000 afford that high cost of a home, along with paying out tons of $$$ for utilities, car payments, cell phone, cable, internet, land line phone, GAS, groceries, (possible) children's college costs, taxes, car repairs, entertainment, healthcare, retirement contributions, clothes, pets/pet supplies, furniture, housing maintenance and incidentals, etc. etc. etc. It's credit card and other forms of DEBT that keeps everyone from declaring bankruptcy.

If we had no way of accumulating debt, our economy would implode.

[OneGrassRoot]

10. Thanks........

There was another thread here with a new article by Frank Rich, in which he mentioned that the number of lobbyists have doubled since 2000, to approximately 35,000.

I thought that was the reason for the boom, and could tie it to BushCo, but others are saying this boom has been over a decade long.

I hear you about everything you've shared here. Debt, debt, debt.

And the bubble will burst for many ~ all over the country ~ come next month when credit card minimum payments double, and bankruptcy won't be an option.

[rbajai]

11. That's right about the lobbyists -

Thanks! Their numbers doubled, that's right.

From what I witnessed in the DC area, the housing boom has not been going on for 10 years. In fact my father tried to sell his colonial-style house in middle-class Kensington in 1995 and it sat on the market for nearly one year. He was about to take his house off the market but at the last minute it sold. At that point it likely sold for just under the asking price, as opposed to selling way ABOVE the asking price - which today is common practice in the DC area.

In reality it was around 1998 or so, in the midst of the tech boom, when the housing market started to heat up a bit. But the housing boom didn't start going CRAZY until mid 1999 or so.

I saw such greed, insanity, fear (that you will lose out on the deal), and panic buying, it was plain and obvious to me that the DC housing market was in a bubble. That's the way it always goes down. Greed, fear, panic. Then the crash.

[MountainLaurel]

16. We're trying to get out

Even after selling two homes that have doubled in value since we bought them, we still can't afford a SFH closer in than 15 miles.

[bleedingheart]

13. it is a crazy boom and I wonder when it will decompress...

my friend bought a townhouse in Centerville, VA for 153K in 1994...she wanted to get out of it in '96 to buy a big house...she actually took a loss and sold it for $148K because she sold it too soon and the developer was still building at the time so...people didn't want her townhouse with all her choices when they could have their own...
She bought a house for $299K in Manassas. In 2002, she sold that house for $500K...and moved to Richmond to get away from the DC boom but based on what I saw down in Richmond..it wasn't any better... she ended up with a $450K house...I kept telling her to buy something for $250K so she wouldn't have a mortgage...but she is hoity toity and that wouldn't do...

[rbajai]

15. Richmond? What's in Richmond!!

I thought about moving to Richmond at one point, but there's really not much going on down there in terms of solid jobs, etc. I guess since I was tech, there were far more jobs in the DC area for that. I always saw Richmond as pretty in one or two parts, but generally sleepy. Unattractive along I-95 as well.

[DancingBear]

14. D.C. is an entity all to itself

Because of the large amount of transient populations (i.e. political ) it is literally unaffected by housing bubbles/busts in other parts of the country. There is ALWAYS a market for people coming and going, and with the largess being doled out by the * folks in the form of defense sub-contracts the $$ here just keeps coming.

It is nothing for folks here to double-dip - i.e. work for the government, retire with a pension, then go to work for a private sector defense firm. I have a friend who worked for years fro the State Dept., then retired. He now works part-time for a (private) firm that does 99% of its business with the State Dept. - and his salary almost doubled.

House here appreciate about 30% per year. We used to own a 4000 s.f home on 61 acres - we sold it for almost double its cost after only two years. We now live in a smaller home on less acreage (in anticipation of moving to New England pretty soon) - we'll do just fine when we sell it, and it won't take long.

FInally, buyers here in this area are not savvy at all. They have so much disposable income that bells and whistles are what makes them buy - not quality. Houses go up here (literally) overnight. They are accustomed to poor quality, and they get it. The story of the builder who built our 61 acre house (and why I fired him) is classic northern Virginia.

[VADem11]

17. The boom has been going on for a long time

I would attribute it to the high tech boom in the late 90's in Montgomery Counaty and around Tysons's Corner and in the outer suburbs. The expansion of contracters and of the government has also contriubuted. At the same time there are a lot of people simply moving into the DC area for non government related jobs.

[AlabamaYankee]

18. My son lives in Arlington

He's been following the housing market casually since he and his wife would like to buy eventually. He feels that the bubble is leaking at the moment; 40% of the mortgage loans are now interest-only, and he feels that with many of the smaller, older homes in the Arlington/Falls Church area approaching $1 Million, there's not much room for capital growth. He's also looking at townhouses in DC proper, which are generally much cheaper, and many neighborhoods are improving.

[Captain Hilts]

19. Lobbyists in DC also feed off the Calif. initiative/ballot measure process

My firm made a ton of money on that.

[FyurFly]

20. I live in Price William County

PW COunty is something like 37 miles from DC and I purchased my 2100 s.f. Town home in early 2003 for 180K, they now sell for almost 375k.

[wildeyed]

22. Many urban real estate markets are hot.

SF and Boston come to mind. I don't know if you can attribute the DC prices only to big government.

My family moved to DC area in the early 80's. The real estate market was hot. But then supply caught up with demand and there was a lull for I guess the second half of the 80's and a good bit of the 90's. You could sell your house if you needed to, the government jobs keep the market stable, but you would not make money on the deal. I think prices even declined somewhat. Then the tech and real estate boom came. Prices went nuts. I guess soon, supply will catch up with demand and we will see prices even out or even decline.

I left DC during the early part of the boom. As a young person just starting out, the housing prices then seemed sky high. Now they are so nuts, there is no way we will ever get back into the market there.