Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE. Latest Info...

[Maddy McCall]

I have many family members in the Port Arthur/Beaumont/Nederland area, so I am staying updated on the storm. NOAA (www.noaa.gov) has predicted that it will take a more westerly turn, but they are astonished that it hasn't done so yet.

To me, it looks like it is headed for the Port Arthur/Sabine Pass/Lake Charles area.

It is expected to strengthen into a hurricane tonight (75 mph+) before landfall tomorrow. Hope you guys are preparing.

The image below from NOAA shows the path IF IT TAKES THE WEST TURN THEY ARE PREDICTING. But it is continuing on north--I am checking stats from their latest update at 1:00 PM CST. They really need to update the probabilities map.



Coastal Texans and Louisianans, you're in my thoughts. :-) :hi:

[slutticus]

1. I'm in...

..Houston and they keep saying it's going to turn...but it's getting kinda close

[sugarcookie]

3. Howdy neighbor,

I live in Sweeny, West Columbia area of Brazoria County. Looks like we're gonna get some bad weather. I hope we don't get the flooding we had last year.

[Maddy McCall]

4. Even if it turns, Houston is going to feel it.

I am astonished that my relatives in TX haven't received any warnings or advice from Civil Defense yet. Usually, by this time, they begin evacuation of the nursing home near the bay in Port Arthur. But my aunt who lives in PA hasn't heard anything yet regarding this.

IT is almost like weather forecasters don't know where it's going, and they don't want to alarm anyone. You guys go ahead and prepare, though...I would.

[hatrack]

8. Be careful, you guys - doesn't look TOO bad (so far)

But it does look like a helluva lot of rain!

[Capn Sunshine]

29. LOOKS LIKE HOU IS IN THE BULLSEYE TO ME

Alicia did the same thing and surprised the hell out of everyone.

I used to live in The Woodlands. They couldn't stop talking about it during Gilbert.

[KCDem]

35. great handle!

I'm in NW Houston, but this is my first summer here. Could one of the hurricanes reach this far north? We had a short-lived, very heavy rainstorm earlier today, wonder if that was related?

[Bunny]

2. Take care y'all.

Stay safe, good luck,we'll be thinking of you.

[goobergunch]

5. All of the models agree on that track...

for more information, see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index_hls.shtml

UPDATE: 1:00 PM CDT

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. SWELLS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE SHORELINES
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND ARE CREATING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CLAUDETTE.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO
CAMERON LOUISIANA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
BROWNSVILLE.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR BEE, GOLIAD, AND VICTORIA COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOCAL OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED THE EVACUATION OF THE WEST END OF
GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. RESIDENTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RESIDENTS
SHOULD COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS PLANS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE SURE
THEIR FAMILY DISASTER KIT IS FULLY STOCKED.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE RECOMMENDING EVACUATIONS OF NON-
RESIDENTS OF PORT ARANSAS. ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

Sorry about all caps, but I copied and pasted it all verbatim from the advisory and HLSes.

The latest image of Claudette is:

It looks a lot better organized than yesterday, and I think it's trying to form an eye-the sign of a hurricane.

[Maddy McCall]

6. They agree only IF IT TAKES A WESTWARD TURN.

Right now, it is headed almost due North. IT hasn't taken the predicted turn, and if it doesn't it will hit land at about the TX-LA state line.

IF it takes the turn, it will follow the predicted track. Port Arthur and Houston will be affected either way.

[slutticus]

7. And what's worse...

..is that most of the winds and T-storms are to the north of the center of circulation....at least last time I checked.

[Maddy McCall]

9. Yep...north and north east.

[goobergunch]

20. That's the forward right quadrant...

always the worst part of a hurricane or TS.

[slutticus]

21. Yes...the "dirty" side. n/t

[playahata1]

10. One of my best friends lives in Beaumont.

She is an administrator (low-level) at Lamar University. I must contact her to make sure she's okay.

[Maddy McCall]

11. playa---ask her what kind of advisories they are getting...

I can't reach my aunt at home...she lives in Port Arthur. Please ask her what advisories they are getting and post back.

Thanks a million!

[playahata1]

12. I have just e-mailed her.

I doubt very seriously, though, that she will get back with me immediately. And I do not have her phone # on hand. Try the Weather Channel Online, which is where I am going next.

[Maddy McCall]

13. Here is a link to the Port Arthur (Beaumont area) ...

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's local weather center website--specific for the region about which you and I are concerned:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/TXZ215.php?warncounty=TXC245&city=Port+Arthur

This is where the weather channel gets its info on the storm.

Click on "Short Term Forecast" or "Hurricane Forecast".

ON this page, you can keep up with probabilities of where it will strike, as well as advisories and discussion of Claudette.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

ONe of the discussions said that an oil platform in the gulf picked up winds that were 75-85 MPH, which would make it a hurricane.

If you hear from your friend, please PM me or post back and tell me if the local media is giving them any warnings or advisories to evacuate. Thanks again! Jill

[playahata1]

14. As of 1:53 p.m. CST....

88°F
Partly Cloudy Feels Like
92°F


UV Index: 10+ Extreme
Dew Point: 69°F
Humidity: 53%
Visibility: Unlimited
Pressure: 29.98 inches and falling
Wind: From the East at 17 gusting to 24 mph

From what I see on the map, all the action/preciptation is still offshore.

[playahata1]

15. As of 1:53 p.m. CST....

88°F
Partly Cloudy Feels Like
92°F


UV Index: 10+ Extreme
Dew Point: 69°F
Humidity: 53%
Visibility: Unlimited
Pressure: 29.98 inches and falling
Wind: From the East at 17 gusting to 24 mph

From what I see on the map, all the action/preciptation is still offshore.

[Maddy McCall]

16. This is the latest for Port Arthur...

Port Arthur is located between San Luis, TX and Cameron, LA.

From NWC
**********snip

HURRICANE STATEMENT
LAZ051-TXZ215-142100-

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
120 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

CLAUDETTE CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN
BAY TO SAN LOUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SAN LOUIS PASS TO
CAMERON LOUISIANA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS. CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CLAUDETTE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG
WINDS AND INCREASING TIDES...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. INTERESTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...
WITH MINOR FLOODING ALREADY REPORTED IN THE CITIES OF CAMERON AND HOLLY
BEACH. TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT ONE AND A HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT
CAMERON. THE HIGHER TIDES ARE A RESULT OF SWELLS CREATED BY CLAUDETTE...
WITH THE MAXIMUM THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING COMING AT HIGH TIDE TOMORROW.
THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL HIGH TIDES FORECASTED FOR TODAY.


***********snip

[playahata1]

17. Just checked Beaumont Station KFDM 6's website.

Nothing about any kind of evacuations in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area.

[Maddy McCall]

18. Thanks for the info!

If you hear anything from your friend, let me know.

I am going to bookmark the KFDM website so I can keep up with it.

[Maddy McCall]

19. Here is Jefferson County Texas Emergency Management's website

http://www.jceoc.com/

It's not listing anything yet, but I will check back frequently in case they issue an evacuation notice.

I saw on the telvision channel's site that offshore well workers are being evacuated.

[Maddy McCall]

26. Disregard above post...here is the correct link:

http://co.jefferson.tx.us/em/jcemhls.htm

[lastliberalintexas]

33. I'm in Bmt too

Say hi to your friend. :hi:

Thus far, only residents in Sabine Pass and other low lying areas are being asked to voluntarily evacuate. Keep in mind that low lying is a relative term here, since no part of SE Texas is really more than 200 ft above sea level!

You can't actually force people to evacuate in Texas since there is no law which requires them to leave their home. And after the last few requested evacuations where people were stuck in traffic for hours trying to head northward, I am not sure that many would leave anyway. What's the difference in being killed in your home or sitting on Hwy 96? Joking.. sort of...

However, law enforcement can order evacuations in LA, so if she continues to track northward, I am sure Cameron et al will be evacuated.

Just hope that wherever she lands, that she does it soon before she becomes too much stronger! :-)

[slutticus]

22. The latest from the National Hurricane Center...

"000
WTNT34 KNHC 142037
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003
...CLAUDETTE CONTINUING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...WARNINGS
EXTENDED...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO HIGH ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 160
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CLAUDETTE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. SEVERAL OIL RIGS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE REPORTED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. SWELLS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE SHORELINES
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND ARE CREATING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CLAUDETTE.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...27.5 N... 93.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN"

[sugarcookie]

23. Channel 2 news

predicting coming our way...Freeport 38%.

[Maddy McCall]

24. Thanks, sugar.

Hope you are prepared...please check in as time permits to let us know how you are faring...I have so many relatives in coastal Texas, so I am above concerned.

Be safe!!

:hi:

[sugarcookie]

25. We are preparing

now. My husband and son-in-law work at one of the chemical plants in Freeport and they have asked for volunteers to work during the storm. Thing is about these little storms they can surprise you with with massive rain and tornadoes. I'm sure Galveston and Houston areas will get a share of this storm too.

Edit: removed text

[Maddy McCall]

27. So true...destruction is not limited to the immediate region of the eye

I saw that Sabine Pass is being voluntarily evacuted. Here is a link to KFDM television: http://www.kfdm1.com/

[Maddy McCall]

28. UPDATED STRIKE PROBABILITIES

[carpetbagger]

30. Woo hoo!!!

Hopefully the storm's eye will hold together and dump some cool seabirds in the local lakes around here. Finally, something to break up the heat in South Texas.

[Maddy McCall]

31. where are you, rsammel?

What part of S. Tex.?

[carpetbagger]

32. San Antonio.

Read the discussion section on nhc.noaa.gov (the National Hurricane Center, another example of how government services have nothing to do at all with safety and public well-being). It lays out pretty well why they think the storm will hit the central coast.

[lastliberalintexas]

34. We're doing fine

So far anyway! I am in the Bmt area myself, and everyone is about as prepared as they always are for these things. As you know, that varies from people planning hurricane parties to people packing to evacuate! :-)

Unfortunately, we were asked to evacuate back in Oct., people sat in traffic for hours, and the storm hit LA instead at the last minute. As you probably know as well, that makes the next storm worse b/c of the crying wolf syndrome people direct at the meteorologists. Even if they asked for an evacuation, I am not sure that many people would leave. (you can't order an evacuation in Texas like they can in LA)

I am sure your family will be fine, though. They've been through this many times and know to take care of themselves. That is probably what your aunt is doing right now! :-)

[Maddy McCall]

36. Thanks for the post :-)

My grandmother was evacuated from a nursing home in Port Arthur in the last storm...she really can't endure that again.

I hope you all will be fine. You are in my thoughts! Keep us updated. :-)

[goobergunch]

37. UPDATE: 14 July 2003 10 PM CDT

WTNT34 KNHC 150241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...CLAUDETTE TURNS WEST...NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
 
CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK...CLAUDETTE WILL BE NEAR THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST BY TOMORROW EVENING. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CLAUDETTE IS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM
THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.  LARGE SWELLS
HAVE BEEN IMPACTING THE SHORELINES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
ARE CREATING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CLAUDETTE.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 94.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 


[slackmaster]

38. Check this out...

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
420 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2003

<snip>

UPPER 600 DM HIGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. FLOW OVER SCALIF WILL
BE 594 S-SE TODAY THRU THU...THEN BECOMES 590 EASTERLY FRI AND SAT AS
REMNANTS OF NOW HURRICANE CLAUDETTE MOVE THROUGH. THIS EXTRA MOISTURE
AND VORTICITY SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MT AND DES TSTRMS
BY THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A CHANCE FOR THE VALLEYS. FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY 592 SE BUT REMAINS QUITE MOIST...SO CHANCE OF TSTRMS
TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

[newyawker99]

39. kick

:kick:

[northofdenali]

40. A friend who lives in Clute, TX says there's 3.5 feet of water

under his house, which is on pilings. The wind is very bad, but power is still on.

Take care, fellow DU'ers in the path of this one.