Larry Sabatos analysis shows Graham has best chance of beating Bush

[lkinsale]

Jeff Book took a look at the University of Virginia Center for Politics director Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Election 04 site, and has this extremely interesting analysis of the information gathered there:

"First, Sabato projects each candidate's likelihood of carrying their own home state, and analyzes whether this gives Democrats a state they would otherwise not be likely to win.

"The homestate projections are at:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_homestate-table2.htm

"He says Graham is a "good" bet to carry Florida, Gephardt is only "fair" to carry Missouri, and Edwards is "fair to poor" to carry North Carolina. All three are states that Democrats would not be likely to win without a home-state nominee. Lieberman is a "good to excellent" bet to carry Connecticut, but Democrats would likely win there anyhow.

"Second, Sabato projects Electoral College totals, running Bush against each of the Democratic contenders.

"The Electoral College projections are at:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-othercands.htm

"He shows both Graham and Lieberman as 287-258 winners over Bush; Gephardt as a 276-262 winner over Bush; and Edwards as a 275-263 winner over Bush. He shows Kerry as a 264-274 loser to Bush. Given the choice, one would always go with the candidate who would produce the highest electoral vote, because it leaves the most room for error.

"Graham and Lieberman's electoral vote projections are premised on both of them carrying Florida against Bush. Gephardt's is based on winning Missouri; Edwards's is based on winning North Carolina.

"If Graham and Lieberman are both projected as 287-258 winners over Bush, with Florida as the swing state producing their majorities, then the question would be whether Graham or Lieberman is more certain to carry Florida. Sabato doesn't explicitly say that Graham is more likely to carry Florida than Lieberman, but that's pretty obviously true.

"So the statement that Sabato thinks Graham has the best chance against Bush is based on his projection that Graham and Lieberman have the best chance against Bush in the Electoral College, read together with the assumption that Graham would run stronger in Florida than Lieberman would."

*****

Sabotos does not make specific predictions, but he shows strong indicators for Graham. I think we should be taking a dead serious look at these indicators as we decide on which candidate will defeat Bush in 04.

1) Graham's voted against the Iraq war as a unsafe diversion from our true security needs (he was saying back in October all the things that the media is finally catching up to now)

2) Graham has been open and pointed in his statements about the deceit and sececry of the Bush admin

3) He appeals strongly to "lost" rural voters

4) He has executive experience with successfully running the 4th largest state for 2 terms

5) He had 3-term congressional experience (he knows how to deal with those guys)

6) He's proposed an economic plan to reverse Bush's fiscal priorities, reset the top rate at 38.6 percent - lower than the rate when President Clinton left office -- and create a "Millionaire's Bracket" at 40%, expand college scholarship tax credits and make the same $10,000 for advanced education and training available to kids who choose not to go to college but enter the workforce and seek training to advance their skills.

7) He's got an excellent environmental and minority record in Florida, and more...hey

I THINK IT'S TIME WE TOOK GRAHAM A LITTLE MORE SERIOUSLY AROUND DU. YA KNOW?

Why you want to waste a top-notch contender against Bush?

[wtmusic]

1. What is Dean, chopped liver?

I can't wait til Howard kicks all their asses. Maybe Larry will have a statement (ha, ha).

[seafan]

2. Totally agree. Graham is a formidable candidate.

He brings so many strengths to the table: foreign policy savvy, the inside info on Intelligence and how Bush has deceived us, executive experience as a 2-term Governor of a large, highly diverse Southern state, a 3-term US Senator and most importantly, integrity as solid as it comes.

In addition, he appeals to the middle of the road voter, and he has a long and remarkable track record of taking care of the interests of Floridians. He is beyond reproach in being the most-loved politician in Florida history... and even by Republicans, as has long been noted during his 37 years of serving the people of our state.

He has never been one given to self-promotion... his honorable record is its own affirmation. If you want a proven candidate who will fight for the ideals this country was founded upon, the inalienable rights of our citizens, the restoration of honor and respect for all of America's people, and the rebuilding of our relationships with the rest of of world, it is Daniel Robert Graham.

[seafan]

3. Some very interesting quotes from CNN's Inside Politics, July 9

-----

Former Senator Bob Kerrey Discusses Graham's Presidential Prospects

WOODRUFF: Based on what you were just saying, you're convinced President Bush is vulnerable and can be beaten?

KERREY: Totally. I mean, look, it's 270 electoral votes, that's what matters. I think we'll win New York. I think we'll win California, even though Governor Gray Davis is having trouble out there. I don't think there's any way that George Bush is going to win the electoral votes of California. And if Bob Graham can win Florida for once, and the state's shifting Democratic anyway, if we can hold Florida, we get three of the top four. So I think it's -- I don't think this is a 300 electoral vote victory for George Bush. I think it's going to be exceptionally close and I think any one of six, as I said, as I've identified them, has the stature, if they're the nominee, to carry this thing all the way to victory.

WOODRUFF: Spoken like a true Democrat. One quick last question...

KERREY: Well, actually spoken like a mathematician in a way. On one level, it's not romance. It's not about trying to make a Democratic case or a Republican case, it's trying to answer the question, how do you get 270 electoral votes, Mr. Bush?

-- CNN's Inside Politics
July 9, 2003


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bob Novak Said President's Supporters in Florida Think Democrats Carry Florida With Graham

WOODRUFF: All right. In Florida, Republicans now saying they are worried about Bob Graham ending up on the Democratic ticket.

NOVAK: Yes, some of the president's supporters in South Florida have advised his team that if Graham is vice president and they had reasonable candidate for president, talking abut Gephardt, Lieberman or Kerry, they think that the Democrats will carry Florida. And that is really bad news because any plan for the president's re-election always includes Florida.

WOODRUFF: And we heard that from Bob Kerrey just a minute ago, saying if the Democrats get Florida, it's a problem.

------

http://www.grahamforpresident.com/buzz/buzz1.html

[dusty64]

4. This is a change since

the last time I looked at the site (which tends to favor rethugs). I can only imagine Graham would be a better bet than Lieberman and it is funny that Dean doesn't seem to be mentioned. I most "electable" ticket appears to me to be Graham/Dean, its a long shot (but I hope it happens).

[tpub]

5. what about pres/VP combos?

do they do the math on that?

I like Graham very much and all the Floridians I know like him, too. But I have to admit I was a little freaked out by that daily diary story. Do you feel that was overemphasized in the press?

[seafan]

6. Without any doubt.

Here is a partial transcript of Graham and Russert on Meet the Press on July 13, 2003, when Graham spoke about his diaries/logbooks:

-----
MR. RUSSERT: And we are back.
Senator Graham, many people in the country still getting to know you. Here’s a portrait of you from the governor’s office in Florida. There you are. Holding a notebook, the much-discussed little notebooks. You’ve kept 4,000 of them during your public career, with obviously logs of people you’ve met, to-do lists. But also very minute specific information. For example, this is what the St. Petersburg Times said.
You woke up on September 17, 2002, a Tuesday, Third Street town house. You weighed 181 pounds.
Applied scalp medication. You were in the kitchen, you brewed coffee. You read The Post. You dress in a gray suit. And on and on and on.
This has been called neurotic, obsessive, bizarre. How would you explain to the American people why do you keep such minute detail of what you do every day?
SEN. GRAHAM: Discipline. I have been doing this now for almost 30 years. My father used to keep a notebook in which he would keep information about the farm, sick cows and other things. And I picked it up from him, and I have refined it to meet my purposes. It’s mainly a list of to do that day. It is a recording of the names of people that I meet, and what their concerns are, so that I can follow up.
It is a log of what happens to me throughout the day, so that I can go back, as I will later today, and review what I did during the last week to see if there was a phone call that I intended to follow up on or other things...
MR. RUSSERT: But it’s more than that. It’s specific things, like what you’re wearing, what room you were in. It’s different.
SEN. GRAHAM: It is. Oh, it—all those things are intended to help my ability to recall what the environment was in which something occurred and that helps me remember the details.
MR. RUSSERT: Would you do it as president?
SEN. GRAHAM: I would assume so. I’ve been—I did it for eight years as governor of Florida. I’ve done it in the U.S. Senate. It’s been a valuable part of my effort to be disciplined and to be responsive to the people by assuring that I have it written down what they expect and that I can check off that that request was responded to.
MR. RUSSERT: In April, you were asked on ABC about it and you said this: “I have placed all of my notebooks from the first 12 years in the University of Florida Library of Florida History. I intend to do so with the balance of my notebooks at an appropriate time.” That’s not accurate, is it?
SEN. GRAHAM: That was not accurate. What had been placed in the University of Florida Library were my earlier notebooks prior to those that I started keeping when I first began running for governor. It is my intention, however, after January 20, 2013, when I complete my second term as president of the United States, to have my notebooks placed in some appropriate public library.
MR. RUSSERT: But they will not have public access before then?
SEN. GRAHAM: No.

------

http://www.msnbc.com/news/938330.asp?cp1=1

[tpub]

10. thanks, I missed his MTP appearance

I just thought doing something like that would take up too much valuable time. But I guess if you're REALLY well organized you will find the time.

[lkinsale]

7. The notebooks actually seem like a PLUS to me

Here's a guy who not only is going to remember stuff (and actually reads the footnotes, unlike Bush) but is unlikely to engage in underhanded secretive off-the-record transactions (unlike a certain VP we know.)

I frankly admire anybody who can stay organized, and it's my strong bet that a large part of Graham's success and popularity in Florida as a Governor and Senator can probably be traced directly to those notebooks. Things are not going to fall through the cracks with him.

I remember when I started my first job, my manager gave all us newbies a Daytimer kind of thing, and told us to record our daily business transactions in it, because legally a diary that is kept regularly will be accepted in court as evidence. That always impressed me! (Not enough to get me to stay with it, but I wish that I had the kind of discipline it takes to do it. My life would be a lot easier, I suspect, without all the things I forget to do until too late. And so often I can't remember how long it's been since I first noticed some detail that later became important.)

It's also significant that he comes from a farming background. A careful record of daily events, large and small, has always been common among successful farmers, all the way back to Washington and Jefferson and before, because farmers know that little things can become big things later.

Maybe Bush ought to ponder this fact. ;)

********

Click to subscribe to Graham04 on Yahoo Groups

Contribute to Graham For President Enter "Laura Kinsale" as your BobCat

[tpub]

11. I like his workdays, too--is that what they're called?

when he does the job of a ticket collector, garbage man, etc, for the day. A really great idea to be able to identify with your constituents like that.

what is the catchphrase "time for a grownup in the White House"? Nice!

[seafan]

12. Here's a pix from a recent workday in New Hampshire.

Workday #379 (July 5, 2003):
Senator Graham with workday co-worker Dick Norris on the Conway, NH Scenic Railroad


And here's one with his sponsored racing truck, driven by NASCAR driver Jon Wood. Go #50! Graham just signed on to 12 races with NASCAR and Jon's already won his first race! Just a taste of good things to come!


Roanoke, Virginia :
Senator Graham with Nascar Driver Jon Wood at an autograph signing with Ward Burton, Jon Wood, Eddie Wood and Ben "Cooter" Jones

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. Graham will make a great VP candidate

Graham will make a great VP candidate for either Dean or Kerry. 2004 is our year! GO DEMS!

[writestuff13]

9. Graham

I joined this Website last week just to see how much support Graham has been gathering lately and I'm glad to see he is getting support.
Graham is the man for 2004!

[DeTHuGoFTHuGS]

13. Graham for America

If Kerry doesn't get the nomination, I hope Graham does. If Kerry do get the nomination, I hope he would pick Graham as his running mate. He'd make a terrific VP, much like Clark.

[tpub]

14. Yes, I'm starting to agree

and the NASCAR thing: definitely a smart idea

[SyracuseDemocrat]

15. good points

but I would really like to see him do a Dean vs Bush matchup. I think that his map would likely turn out exactly like Kerry's, with him most likely taking New Hampshire, but not being guaranteed to win Florida like graham would be. I'm also not surprised that Lieberman would have a chance to win Florida, given the lots of south florida jewish voters that live there.

[GBD4]

18. From a FL perspective, no.

Lieberman's religion will not be a factor in winning FL, in my opinion. The Jewish voters here in SoFla are so overwhelmingly Democratic and turnout in droves already. So personally I don't think Lieberman would have a better shot than say Kerry in FL. And yes, the Jewish voters here have remained Democrats, unlike some of the propaganda being spun by Republican strategists. We hated Dubya in 2000, and we sure as hell ain't goin to like him any more in 04!

Your typical SoFla condo voter:
:argh:
(I just discovered that smilie!)
Hey, technology isn't easy for 80-year-olds to use! :)

[jerryster]

16. Graham

I like Graham for the most part, but don't know his stance on many issues. (my fault, not his). But sadly, I have to raise the health issue. Yes, I know it's supposedly not an issue where VP Dick "I no longer have any influence regarding Halliburton, I swear" Cheney is concerned. But now we are talking about the top of the ticket. And remember, smirky and rover have shown that they are not above ANYTHING. They will make it an issue somehow. And they'll use the argument I just did about it being the Presidency to make it stick.

[lkinsale]

17. How about a young VP...like Edwards? ;)

I agree this is somewhat of a liability. Graham's age can be counterspun as wisdom, but I'm sure the health issue would be raised.

Doesn't Kerry have prostate cancer? I think this will be brought out against him, too. Any health issue is madly and unfairly spun by the opposition, no matter what the real facts are.

One of the strongest things that makes me support Graham is something I've mentioned several times before. I don't think he would "frighten" the average Republican voter. The Pugs rely heavily on the fear generated by a candidate who can be spun (fairly or not) as a threat to their values of home and apple pie. Graham IS home and apple pie. He's running for the sake of his 10 grandchildren and their future. I think that's going to be hard to spin as terrifying, even for Rove. And I'm not sure Graham's health can be spun as all that scary. It's a negative, but not the kind of negative that brings voters out in droves to counter it.

Does that make sense? I won't argue this is a liability, but I think, say, Dean would be polarizing and would be a catalyst that would bring voters out of the woodwork to defeat him. I don't think Graham's health would do this, so I think it's not as heavy a liability.

None of them are perfect. We're looking for the Main Chance.

*******

Click to subscribe to Graham04 on Yahoo Groups

Contribute to Graham For President Enter "Laura Kinsale" as your BobCat


*******

[BeachBuckeye]

19. Where is Bob going to get the money?

He is having a lot of trouble raising enough money to win primary elections and that is the first order of business.

[Gingersnap]

20. I'm a Kucinich supporter but I found this thread useful

and informative. Graham seems like a good man and to have the experience necessary to win. I'm surprised, really, that more people on the board aren't on to him.

Thanks for posting this.

[seafan]

21. Heavy TV schedule this week for Senator Graham:

Here's his schedule from his website:


------
TV Time!

Catch Senator Graham all this week as he discusses the bipartisan report on 9/11.

Wednesday, July 23

Who: Senator Bob Graham
What: CNN's Larry King Live
When: Wednesday, July 23, 2003, 9:00 pm ET

Thursday, July 24

Who: Senator Bob Graham
What: NBC's Today Show
When: Thursday, July 24, 2003, 7:00 am ET

Who: Senator Bob Graham
What: ABC's Good Morning America
When: Thursday, July 24, 2003, 7:00 am ET

Who: Senator Bob Graham
What: CBS's Early Show
When: Thursday, July 24, 2003, 7:00 am ET

Who: Senator Bob Graham
What: PBS's Newshour with Jim Lehrer
When: Thursday, July 24, 6:00 pm ET*

Sunday, July 27

Who: Senator Bob Graham
What: NBC's Meet the Press
When: Sunday, July 27*

* check local listings for time in your area

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http://www.grahamforpresident.com