Oil prices hit an all-time high (not inflation-adjusted) before this weekend. There have been several explanations given for it, but author Charles H. Featherstone suspects it might be linked to the perception the US will attack Iran (or another ME country?) by June.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/featherstone/featherstone22.htmlHang On, It Could be a Wild Rideby Charles H. Featherstone
There...seems to be some panic brewing over US gasoline stocks, with many traders doubting the veracity of US government data released this week showing an increase of gasoline stocks along the Gulf Coast. At the same time, the American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease in gasoline stocks, and the Energy Information Agency – which publishes storage data for crude, refined products and natural gas every week – said it would look into the matter.
Sounding the alarm, Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading told CBS MarketWatch that "For weeks, many analysts have been downplaying the grave situation gasoline stocks are facing this summer but now they are...acknowledging that there may be some serious problems."
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I cannot prove it, but I think the prospect of war with Iran has been haunting world oil markets since last summer, when the price broke $40 and then wandered on up past $50. Sure, there were other things affecting the price of Brent and West Texas Intermediate, most notably short gasoline stocks in the US and unrest in Iraq. But ever since the Bush administration committed itself to filling the 700 million Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the middle of this summer, I think a lot of people believe that reserve is being filled to make up for the huge disruption in world crude oil supplies that any sustained attack – air campaign or land invasion – of Iran would most assuredly bring.