USGS - "Rapid And Sustained" Sea Ice Melt Likely By 2100 - Sea Level Rise Will Exceed IPCC Outlook

[hatrack]

A new report by the U.S. Geological Survey warns that "rapid and sustained" Arctic sea-ice melt is likely this century.

EDIT

The report, which is based on a review of scientific literature, suggests there will be an increased drought in the Southwest and a slowdown in currents that circulate warm and cold water in the Atlantic Ocean.

The sea-ice melt could lead to sudden sea level rise, but the scientists found that current models make it difficult to predict when that could occur or how it could affect coastal communities. The group suggested sea level rise could "substantially exceed" projections done by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, if models were improved to include areas such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or large glaciers in Greenland.

EDIT

The work, done by a team of 28 scientists, was started in March 2007 and released this month. It was prompted by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which has commissioned 21 reviews of research and literature done to date to help policy-makers, resource managers and the public make decisions about future climate variability and change. The study on "Abrupt Climate Change" was one of the assessments. It and the others are looking at the key questions regarding climate change. The report "summarizes the scientific community's growing understanding regarding the potential for abrupt climate changes and identified areas for additional research to further climate models," said Mark Myers, USGS director.

EDIT

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20081229/NEWS08/812290318

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. (This Report was released two weeks ago.)

However, it's still scary stuff.

Go here for the straight scoop.
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2091
…

• Climate model simulations and observations suggest that rapid and sustained September arctic sea ice loss is likely in the 21^st century.
• The southwestern United States may be beginning an abrupt period of increased drought.
• It is very likely that the northward flow of warm water in the upper layers of the Atlantic Ocean, which has an important impact on the global climate system, will decrease by approximately 25-30 percent. However, it is very unlikely that this circulation will collapse or that the weakening will occur abruptly during the 21^st century and beyond.
• An abrupt change in sea level is possible, but predictions are highly uncertain due to shortcomings in existing climate models.
• There is unlikely to be an abrupt release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere from deposits in the earth. However, it is very likely that the pace of methane emissions will increase.

…

[Bigmack]

4. Despite the fact that we live on the coast

tho in the "cheap seats" about a half mile from the beach, what worries me most is the fate of the thermohaline current in the face of the likely release, from Greenland ice melting, of LOTS of fresh water into the north Atlantic. My scientist friends assure me that the controlling mechanisms are too complex to allow easy predictions, given present knowledge, BUT seems to me like I've read that there HAVE been, in the past, abrupt halts to that current. I'd think that prudent beings would want to err on the side of caution.... But I guess not. Ms Bigmack

[Nederland]

2. Give me a break

Predicting what things will look like in 2100 is a total waste of time. There are simply far too many variables that can effect the outcome that no prediction that far out can have even a modest degree of confidence. Furthermore, it's not like the next twenty years aren't bad enough to spur some action...

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. On the contrary

You've got to extend predictions out there.

Right now, a lot of people say, "Damn this is a cold Winter. So much for 'Global Warming.' huh?"

A prediction of what might happen in 100 years, may be sufficient to spur some people into action.

So (as many studies do) you give people possible scenarios using the Science we currently have (best case, worst case, probable case) let 'em choose which one they want their great-grandchildren living with.

[Indenturedebtor]

6. Actually when I hear 2100 I simply subtract 75 years

Any horrible environmental effect that is predicted to be more than 20 years out is generally no more than 25 years out it seems.

[XemaSab]

3. 2100?

:shrug:

Halve that and you might get a real timeframe.

[Dead_Parrot]

7. "Sun likely to rise by noon tomorrow"

--Full report on page 7--

[XemaSab]

8. How's 2009 going for ya, friend?

:hi:

[Dead_Parrot]

9. Badly

With hindsight, I should not have decided tonight was the best night to finish off the home-brew egg-nog. I'm 25.5 hrs into 2009 and I hate it. :puke:

Hope the novelty hasn't worn off in CA yet... must be about 4am there, isn't it? how ya doin'