Atmospheric CO2 Spikes In 1998, 2002-03 Puzzle Scientists

[hatrack]

The Mauna Loa Observatory measured a dramatic spike in the amount of carbon dioxide entering the global atmosphere in 2002 and 2003 — the reasons for which aren't entirely clear although scientists have some suspects in the form of El Niño events and massive wildfires.

The rising CO2 level is a key factor in the discussion of global climate change, because it is what's called a greenhouse gas — it traps the sun's heat in the planet's atmosphere. Scientists say that the rate of increase dropped back to its normal level in 2004, but "normal" is still more carbon dioxide every year. "The long-term trend is upward and strongly upward," said Barry Huebert, a University of Hawai'i professor of oceanography who specializes in atmospheric chemistry.

The Mauna Loa Observatory data is the gold standard in climate research. Since 1958, the site has been recording atmospheric CO2 levels — longer than any research facility in the world — and it's considered one of the best sites for such measurements. The observatory, at more than 11,000-foot elevation on Mauna Loa, comprises buildings filled with and surrounded by complex scientific gear. The measurements are prized because they are taken from a site more than 2 miles high in the middle of the Pacific, distant from most human activity and far from sources of pollution.

EDIT

With respect to the 1998 and 2002-2003 spikes in carbon dioxide, it's notable that both periods had El Niño climate events, said Tom Schroeder, director of the University of Hawai'i's Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research. "We often get a spike associated with El Niño cycles," he said, although he conceded that the 2002-2003 El Niño was a moderate one. Tans said there also were big wildfires during those years. In 1998 they were in Indonesia and Malaysia, and during the more recent spike they were in Siberia, he said. Fires dump a great deal of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, although some of that is reabsorbed as the burned areas regrow, partly fertilized by the ash from the blazes."

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http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2005/Apr/10/ln/ln27p.html

[Dogmudgeon]

1. A wild-assed guess

Methane hydrate clathrate release from increased seawater temperatures? I.e., if an influx of warmer seawater warms a seabed with a large amount of methane hydrate clathrates, there is a greater chance that the methane will be released into the atmosphere.

(Methane, for those who are not up on it, is a much more powerful greenouse gas than carbon dioxide.)

Such releases would be random and almost impossible to predict. Hence, the "spikes".

Chemists?

--p!

[ChemEng]

2. Methane is not CO2.....And even if the hydrates were released

the volume would pale in comparison to CO2 sources both natural and man-made.