WSJ's Harwood: Electoral College Gets One

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CAPITAL JOURNAL
By JOHN HARWOOD

Electoral College Gets One

'No' Vote -- It's Just Not Popular
November 10, 2004; Page A4

WASHINGTON -- The past week's Republican euphoria and Democratic gloom have obscured the fact that the country dodged a major political bullet on Election Day. The bullet wasn't a replay of the disputed 2000 elections, with provisional ballots replacing hanging chads as the grist for courtroom battle. Rather, the bullet was an Electoral College victory by a candidate who lost the popular vote decisively. That came closer to happening than postelection analysis of President Bush's victory margin of 3.5 million votes suggests.

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That means that if 75,000 voters in Ohio had swung toward Sen. John Kerry, all 20 of the state's electoral votes would have gone to him, too -- even though the Republican incumbent still would have received his impressive 51% majority of the national popular vote, a margin of three percentage points over his opponent. Mr. Kerry would have won the election with a 272-266 Electoral College victory.

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Typically, the Electoral College magnifies the impact of popular-vote victories. Though Republican and Democratic strength varies significantly by region, state outcomes are similar enough that a relatively narrow edge nationally turns into a broader electoral triumph.

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Of the 31 states Mr. Bush carried, he won 22 of them with at least 55% of the vote. That is more lopsided than in 2000, when Mr. Bush won 17 states with 55% or more. Mr. Kerry's blue-state base was smaller, but not much diluted from Mr. Gore's 2000 showing. In winning 19 states and the District of Columbia, he drew at least 55% of the vote in eight contests, including giant California. That is just one fewer blowout than Mr. Gore won in 2000. Those victories, combined with narrow Kerry wins in the battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, brought the Massachusetts senator close to an Electoral College majority. Snatching Ohio would have made him president with wins in just 20 states -- the fewest in modern political history.

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Write to John Harwood at [e-mail]

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[Demit]

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