Rasmussen daily graph for 1/1/08 - All three still unchanged

[DavidDvorkin]

Very odd.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[KingofNewOrleans]

1. Why is it odd

Nationally, people aren't going to pay attention until the Iowa and then NH results make headlines.

[DavidDvorkin]

3. Sure, but there should be little blips anyway

Because of random noise in the whole process.

I'm going to keep checking, in case Rasmussen accidentally reposted yesterday's numbers, and there's an update.

[DavidDvorkin]

9. Rasmussen has updated their numbers page

And it appears that those identical numbers weren't really new ones. They didn't poll over the New Year's break.

Tomorrow, they should publish actual new numbers, and I'll fix the graphs appropriately then.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. This Is Odd

"Clinton is viewed favorably by 80% of Democratic voters, Edwards by 66%, and Obama by 61%."


I am familiar with the argument that Barack Obama will ride a wave of positive press if and when he wins Iowa and New Hampshire to wins everywhere but the fact that Hillary Clinton is viewed favorably by 80% of Democrats gives me pause from totally believing that will be the case... You just don't easily vote against someone you like so easily...

[DavidDvorkin]

4. Which implies that it's still her race to lose

She just has to be cautious and not upset Democratic voters.

And the challengers have to look for and exploit any mistake on her part. Which is the usual situation.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The CW Is

The CW is if she loses IA she will NH and if she loses NH she will lose SC and she will be in a lot of trouble on Super Tuesday...

I think we will learn a lot more when the field is narrowed...

[antiimperialist]

5. Problem is: it includes voters from Michigan and Florida

Which were stripped of delegates, and are two of the most populated states, and are therefore irrelevant when it comes to primary results.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. That Still Leaves About Ninety Percent Of The Nation

FL is the fourth most populous state in the nation...MI is somewhere in the top ten...That being said they still, combined, represnt less than ten percent of the population...

National polls maybe irrelevant now but not for that reason...

[DavidDvorkin]

8. Why I think national polls do matter

True, we don't have a national primary, and each individual primary or caucus can have a big effect on the next one, and that's how delegates are actually chosen, except for superdelegates.

Nonetheless, I'm sure that national polls do have an effect on voter perceptions in each primary. Big leads or big changes in national polls are bound to affect how some voters vote in primaries, probably less so in caucuses.

They also affect fundraising, both positively and negatively.