Insider Advantage Poll: Edwards 41%; Clinton 34%; Obama 25% (2nd choice factor)

[Ugnmoose]

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/linkframe.php?linkid=48629

Using the same polling methodology that successfully predicted the outcome of the 2004 Democratic Caucus in Iowa, InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus, and it shows a statistical tie between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, with Barack Obama starting to lag.

Clinton has 30%, Edwards 29%, Obama 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided.

The survey was conducted Dec. 28-29 among 788 likely Democratic voters in Iowa. The poll has been weighted for gender and age. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.
Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.

Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:
Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

“We removed from the results the percentages allocated for ‘other candidates’ and ‘undecideds,’ and then reallocated the support of those who are supporting candidates without the required 15% level of support,” said Jeff Shusterman of InsiderAdvantage’s research partner, Majority Opinion Research.
“We then merged these totals with the percentages of support the top candidates received on the first ‘ballot.’ This is the same methodology we used in 2004,” he said.

My take: I don't think the second choice factor has gotten much attention in the MSM - but clearly it favors Edwards.

[fightindonkey]

1. Already What I Assumed.

[jefferson_dem]

6. You assumed this same old dodgy poll result would be posted here again?

Way to go!

[BeyondGeography]

14. He changed his name from ass to donkey

but it hasn't helped.

[Joe the Revelator]

2. Old poll from a no name, Right Wing, Georgia polling firm

If this is all you have to hang on to, then tomorrow is going to be a long night for you.

[Ugnmoose]

4. I'm not hanging my hat on anything

I'm merely reporting a poll result that just so happened to have a very good track record in predicting the 2004 result. You draw your own conclusion.

[Joe the Revelator]

5. Its been posted at least 20 times since it came out

[Ugnmoose]

7. Old Poll?

You call a December 28 and 29th poll as old? Get real! By the way, this is the only poll I have seen that puts a factor on the second choice vote. And this is not old news - it is being posted on major blogs right now.

[Joe the Revelator]

15. Old since there are newer polls out there now

And if blogs are just now posting this, I'm amazed at how ahead of the curve DU is.

[Quixote1818]

17. .

[Sparkly]

3. I posted something similar in my guessed prediction on another thread...

Edwards' high percentages for "second choice" could add up to a significant boost from supporters of candidates with lower than 15%.

Depending on the turnout of new caucus-goers for Obama, I think Edwards will win Iowa.

[avaistheone1]

9. I think Edwards can win it

[Renew Deal]

8. Insider advantage was way off in 2004

They predicted a wide margin, with the wrong order. It's like what they say about a broken clock.



http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_accurate_were_the_iowa_pol.php

[Quixote1818]

18. They were no worse than Zogby or Survey USA

Not to mention they had 23% Undecided so they may have nailed it better than anyone since the undecided voters seemed to go to Kerry and Edwards.

[AmBlue]

This is significant

because none of the other polls we're seeing is factoring in Second Choice. Also significant because they predicted Kerry's win in Iowa by this same method.

:kick:

[Renew Deal]

11. Almost everyone predicted Kerry would win.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3932640&mesg_id=3932735

[Bozita]

10. Just watched Edwards LIVE on C-SPAN. He's calling for BIG-time change.

The people are listening.

IMHO, Edwards wins Iowa.

[comradebillyboy]

12. I could live with any outcome that has Obama 3rd or

worse. The more I see the less I like.

[Bumblebee]

16. Ditto. I think it's the notion of Obama which is so appealing -- a young,

charismatic and, supposedly, progressive black candidate -- but he is not progressive, if one pays attention to what he says and does. I would be happy if it's either Edwards or Clinton who wins Iowa. I still go back and forth in my support between the two of them, but never Obama...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. Yeah I think Barack has overstayed his welcome

and will not be winning many 2nd choices.