Is Hillary collapsing in NH? All polls point to yes!

[JackORoses]

.............................................................Obama...Clinton..Edwards..Richardson

RCP Average.............01/02 - 01/05...-------....34.3....30.9....18.9.....5.4...........Obama +3.4

*

American Res. Group.....12/27 - 12/29...600 LV..27.......31.......21.......5...........Clinton +4.0
American Res. Group.....01/01 - 01/03...600 LV..31.......35.......15.......5...........Clinton +4.0
American Res. Group.....01/04 - 01/05...600 LV..38.......26.......20.......3...........Obama +12.0

......................................................................................16 point swing to Obama
*

Concord Monitor.........12/10 - 12/12...600 LV..32.......31.......18.......8...........Obama +1.0
Concord Monitor.........01/04 - 01/05...400 LV..34.......33.......23.......4...........Obama +1.0

*

CNN/WMUR...................12/13 - 12/17...469 LV..26.......38.......14.......8...........Clinton +12.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH............12/27 - 12/30...521 LV..30.......34.......17.......5...........Clinton +4.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH............01/04 - 01/05...359 LV..33.......33.......20.......4...........Tie

......................................................................................12 point swing to Obama
*

*

Suffolk/WHDH............01/01 - 01/02...500 LV..23.......39.......17.......5...........Clinton +16.0
Suffolk/WHDH............01/03 - 01/04...500 LV..29.......36.......13.......4...........Clinton +7.0
Suffolk/WHDH............01/04 - 01/05...500 LV..33.......35.......14.......5...........Clinton +2.0

......................................................................................14 point swing to Obama


*

Rasmussen...............12/18 - 12/18...791 LV..28.......31.......18.......8...........Clinton +3.0
Rasmussen...............01/04 - 01/04...510 LV..37.......27.......19.......8...........Obama +10.0
Rasmussen...............01/04 - 01/05...1210 LV..39.......27.......18.......8...........Obama +12.0

......................................................................................15 point swing to Obama


*

Zogby Tracking..........01/01 - 01/03 960 LV..26.......32.......20.......7...........Clinton +6.0
Zogby Tracking..........01/02 - 01/04 893 LV..28.......32.......20.......7...........Clinton +4.0
Zogby Tracking..........01/03 - 01/05 844 LV..30.......31.......20.......7...........Clinton +1.0

......................................................................................5 point swing to Obama

*
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html#polls


Do you see what I see?

[Bicoastal]

1. Down but not out.

That's what I see, and I'm an Obama supporter.

It might be closer than Iowa...

[Yael]

2. I believe I do.

Be interesting to see what the next few days brings.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. lotsa wittle numbers.

But the trends are there. Barack is taking no prisoners, while Hillary is revising her campaign on the fly.

[Cha]

34. I'm hoping that

shit don't fly.

[jackson_dem]

4. I see a dead heat in most polls

[geiger]

5. and also statistically too close to mean anything

[mucifer]

6. Wouldn't it be nice to live in a democracy where everyone's vote

counted the same? Our primary system is awful and I'm an Obama supporter.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

7. "collapsing" lol. I'd be disappointed in those numbers as an Obama backer nt

nt

[Joe the Revelator]

8. Yeah, I'd hate being the lead and trending upwards in a state that Hillary had complete control of..

3 days ago.

[Arugula Latte]

31. Yes, it's a terrible thing for a candidate to have upward momentum and enthusiasm.

;)

[JackORoses]

12. but utterly devastated if you are a Hillary supporter, right?

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. Nice try. A 0 to 4 point drop immediately after losing in Iowa is not "collapsing

In most polls that is within the margin or error and movements within the margin of error are not dramatic, certainly they don't represent a "collapse". I agree that support for her slipped after Iowa. But "collapsing"? No. The one poll that has Clinton slipping 5 points also has her still tied for the lead. Your wish may yet come true but right now you are day dreaming that possibility.

[JackORoses]

14. I've got news for you, the movement hasn't stopped

this is only primary evidence of it
I think this thread will be a good reference point for tomorrow's polls. See you then.

[suston96]

10. Polls in NH? How reliable are they?

Try this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3970652

[JackORoses]

15. yeah, you've never ever quoted a poll, have you?

why don't you post that poll of polls you bandy about that has data from 2005 in it.
that'll make Hillary look good.

[suston96]

21. Oh, gee. When analyzing the validity or dependability of a pollster......

....how far should you NOT go back? How else but to present a track record from the past.

People around here are funny. Polls that make their candidate look good are valid and dependable. Otherwise they are to be dismissed as unreliable.

All of a sudden Rasmussen is the last word on polling. Actually, it's Zogby who is last according to my link.

[JackORoses]

24. which poll does not demonstrate the trend to Obama?

show us.

[suston96]

27. Where did I argue the contents of any of the polls you posted?

I posted a link to another DU thread which presented a reliabilty rating graph of many pollsters.

There are many polls trending to Obama. Those trends are as reliable as the polls themselves, which is judged by past performance.

[Evergreen Emerald]

11. How could she not collapse? The media is spinning. The masses are too stupid

to see that they are being played. The country is loosing. And we will have another Republican in the White House next year. And ohmygod, it will be McCain.

[Clanfear]

13. Yes, that is it.

The masses are just too damned stupid. :eyes: Of course we are talking about fellow Democrats here.

Is it that hard to accept that maybe your chosen candidate is not the inevitable choice?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

20. I don't think so

[Alexander]

35. Guess what it's time for:

[Bitwit1234]

16. Bush didn't start winning HIS states til much later.

Kerry didn't get a boost til mid season. So what in the S.O.B. hell is all the crap about Obama took one state, with the help of all those bussed in students. When he wins four of five states legitimately then he is a candidate.

[JackORoses]

17. did you hear that Kerry is endorsing Obama?

;)

[ClericJohnPreston]

36. Would that be the same Kerry

who capitulated to King George and sold out this Country, leaving a startled and ANGRY Edwards at his side?

[Skip Intro]

18. All pre-debate.She gets a bounce after last night.

[frazzled]

19. Well, I'm going to stick with the "Poll of Pollsters" reliability ratings for these polls

And the only one that receives a realibility rating of over 50% is the CNN/WMUR/UNH poll, which has Clinton and Obama in a total tie. (33-33-20)

The only thing that looks certain is that Edwards will never get into second place. If she comes in first or second, it's all going to be a question of how much of a spread it is. Looks like it will be an Obama-Clinton race down to the wire both here and in SC. So Super Tuesday should be interesting.

[JackORoses]

22. that poll also shows a 12 point swing to Obama over 3 weeks

[ButterflyBlood]

23. All I'll say is this

[Sparkly]

25. The famously "independent-minded" New Hampshire voters!

We might as well just let Iowa decide the whole thing.

I'm fine with Obama, but I'd really like to see an actual primary process for a change.

[BringBigDogBack]

26. Looks promising!

Let's keep it going

[dailykoff]

28. Looks like the nutcracker suite has lost its marbles.

That's show biz.

[David__77]

29. Let us hope.

I would like to see the earliest possible end to the Clinton campaign.

[MarkInLA]

30. She's in this until at LEAST February 5, even if Obama wins every primary/caucus before then (n/t)

[Egnever]

32. Agreed she will not give up

[AtomicKitten]

33. The trend is O-B-A-M-A.

[Sulawesi]

37. How can anybody deny the polling is trending toward Obama,

how people see only what they want to see is amazing to me...

[JackORoses]

38. *Update*

CNN/WMUR...................12/13 - 12/17...469 LV..26.......38.......14.......8...........Clinton +12.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH............12/27 - 12/30...521 LV..30.......34.......17.......5...........Clinton +4.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH............01/04 - 01/05...359 LV..33.......33.......20.......4...........Tie
CNN/WMUR...................01/05 - 01/06...268 LV..39.......29.......16.......7...........Obama +10.0


......................................................................................22 point swing to Obama

[JackORoses]

39. *Update*

.............................................................Obama...Clinton..Edwards..Richardson

USA Today/Gallup.......12/17 - 12/19...510 LV...32.......32.......18.......8..........Tie
USA Today/Gallup.......01/04 - 01/06...778 LV...41.......28.......19.......6..........Obama +13.0

.....................................................................................13 point swing to Obama

[JackORoses]

40. *Update*

.............................................................Obama...Clinton..Edwards..Richardson

Franklin Pierce.......12/27 - 12/31...403 LV...28.......32.......19.......8..........Clinton +4.0
Franklin Pierce.......01/04 - 01/06...403 LV...34.......31.......20.......1..........Obama +3.0

.....................................................................................7 point swing to Obama