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Edited on Mon Jan-07-08 04:56 AM by origin1286
Hello all. Been lurking for a little while and figured it was about time to register and share my thoughts.
One thing I've noticed is there is so much bitterness and disrespect between the supporters of one candidate and supporters of another candidate. Despite the fact that all of these candidates presumably have good intentions and plan to do what they think is right, we continue to personally attack them and their supporters.
People want to sit back and claim that the GOP is propping up Obama because they think they can beat him. It is part of their "master strategy." Have any of you ever sat back and thought that maybe their strategy is to prop up the underdog in order to create dissension among the ranks and turn the race nasty? Perhaps they're propping up Obama in the hopes that Hillary will panic and run a slash and burn campaign and do the Republicans dirty work for them. This doesn't apply to just the candidates themselves. You can already see it with supporters making a stink out of Hillary showing a little fire in the debates, chain letters defaming Obama, etc, etc.
You guys gotta keep in mind that we all want a change. Whether you're for Obama, Edwards, or Clinton, you want something better than what we have. I won't sit here and rail on the Republicans because I don't vote the party I vote the candidate. But we all want what is best for our country, as do the candidates. The best way to achieve the change we all so desperately want is by uniting.
Now I delve into my political thoughts.
Claim: Obama can't win the general election
Absolutely bogus. Obama has the unique ability to inspire people from all walks of life and all parties. They rally around him. He has that charisma that makes people want to follow him. I see concerns voiced that the Republicans will play the race card, but I find that to be a stretch and even if they do, it will backfire. See, by running a relatively "nice" campaign, Obama has made himself out to be this innocent everyman out to change the world. He is Jimmy Stewart in It's a Wonderful Life. So when opponents attack him, people rally around him and get angry at the other candidate for unprovoked attacks. Any attacks on Obama make the other candidate seem like the villain, as Obama has made himself out to be the hero. Negative campaigning WILL NOT WORK against Obama. Obama can woo independents better than any candidate in either field. He can woo more republicans than any other democrat. What he lacks in traditional experience, he makes up for in intangibles.
Claim: Criticism of Hillary is Sexist
Please, just shut up. That's all I need to say about this.
Mclurkin
I admit I haven't read much on this, but as I understand it Obama had some anti-gay guy campaign for him.
While that might not have been the best idea, I don't see how it is relevant to Obama's stance on gay rights. I have a friend who dislikes gays, but I am a strong supporter of gay rights. The company one keeps is not always indicative of the stances on takes. Obama has gone on record supporting gay rights.
This is exactly what I was talking about in the first part of this post. Attacking our own candidates. I don't get it.
Random thoughts:
- Edwards "won" the most recent debate
- Hillary came across much better in this debate than usual. I did think she lost her temper a little bit and while watching it I said, "Uh oh, that could be here Dean scream." Watching it again, however, it wasn't as bad as I first thought, but doesn't soften her image which is something she needs to do. Obama isn't a strong debater apparently, but he held his own and came in 2nd by virtue of not screwing up.
- I've seen quotes posted where Obama leaves himself open to changing positions. What is wrong with that? People change their minds. Why do we expect candidates to be any different?
- The reason the "I'm the real candidate for change" argument won't work for Hillary is twofold.
1. Obama embodies change. Obama is younger than the typical candidate - a CHANGE. Obama is black - a CHANGE. Obama is not from a political powerhouse family - a CHANGE. Obama is a fresh face - CHANGE. Voters look at Obama and immediately think change. It is their instant association with him. His mere election represents change whether his policies do or not. Clinton is a woman, yes, but women breaking barriers has never been covered as much as a black man breaking a barrier. When people see Hillary they see someone who has been in the spotlight for almost 20 years. She is the face of status quo, fairly or not. She has been around. She comes from a political family. Her husband was already in office. The change argument doesn't work for her, regardless of whether she would actually be the one to change the most through policy. Negativity will only backfire if used against Obama.
2. Obama started the change argument. Since he has been in the spotlight, he's been seen as the "change" guy. While all candidates were talking about it, Obama really took that message over. By still clinging to the idea of change, it appears as if Hillary is playing "me too!" That does not suit her well if she's trying to come across as the real leader. She needs her own message.
If I'm Hillary, here is what I do. I don't attack Obama. I get off the change-wagon, at least explicitly. I start touting my record - specifics. Not general "35 years of change." I come with things I have changed. "Prior to me doing x, y was the case." I demonstrate my change without saying it. I stop campaigning with Bill. She can't campaign with Bill and still show she is change. When I do mention Obama, it will be contrast, not attack. "I've passed x bills, Obama has passed y bills." Things like that. Contrast, not attack.
They are sort of going that way now, but even that strategy is a long shot. The Obama campaign is built on an idea which is now almost exclusively associated with Obama. It just so happens that that idea has become the buzzword for both parties.
I also keep Edwards in the race through Super Tuesday. I don't know how to go about it. Whether it's backroom deals or what. Edwards is the only thing keeping Hillary alive. If Edwards drops, I'd be willing to bet 80% of his supporters go to Obama and the rout is on.
Anyway, this post is long enough.
Predictions for NH:
Obama 41%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 24%
McCain 33%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 14%
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