An analysis: If Obama wins NH by 10 points, Clinton shouldn't contest SC & might consider quitting

[Perky]

Hillary might do better to avoid South Carolina if she loses by 10% or more tomorrow. Consider the following:

First the Culinary workers in Nevada are likely to endorse Obama, and that means a third straight win for Obama.
You are also going to see alot of dems jumping on the Obama bandwagon,
You will also see a demoralized staff and people starting to look for ways to catch on with the Obama campaign.,

The other challenges is that fundraising is going to dry up.

On to South Carolina?

I think AA support is going to desert her there and that is 50% of the voting Dems in SC.
I also think there is going to be a huge AA turnout to put him "over the top".
I think Hillary's support in the South has always been tenuous to begin with and with the Big MO probably even more so.
Even that small portion of white Dems who might be less inclined to back Obama on the basis of race will vote for Obama in part because he is not Hillary and because they want to "finish her off" It is only anecdotal but white Southerners I talk to actually like Obama and at minimum think he is confident and transcendent in a way that most black leadership has not been in their view.

I think all this translates readily into a real drubbing at the SC polls. Perhaps approaching 70%. But there is also another obvious undercurrent here in that South Carolina as the birthplace of the Confederacy would be positioned to hand a black man the Democratic nomination for the presidency of the United States. That is an unimaginable, albeit inadequate, genuflection towards reconciliation that should not be lost on anyone. It is an incredibly powerful metaphor

Because a drubbing by Obama in the south a week prior to Super Tuesday would almost invariably winds up very ugly on Super Tuesday, One recourse for Hillary would be to go very negative/scorched earth and try for a comeback in SC but I don't think that would play well with anyone as it runs the risk of appearing bigoted, arrogant and quixotic. She would be perceived at standing in the way of one of the most redemptive moments in US history and if she won the nomination it seems doubtful AAs would easily forgive her.

Her only option would be to concede SC to Obama and focus on Super Tuesday states. It might be too late at that point, but that might be her best shot.

Or she could just say it's over.

[Lerkfish]

1. as much as I don't like Clinton, I don't think she should drop out

I think it was wrong of biden, and dodd to drop out, and its wrong to block out kucinich.
we have a decent field, and they should all remain in to give voters the largest choice.

[Perky]

2. I am not suggesting she drop out

I think she would be smart to concede the South Carolina Tilt if she loses by a wide margin in New Hampshire

[enough already]

3. Damned if you do, damned if you don't

Agreed she will get drubbed there, but the perception of running away from a fight is really bad.

[Perky]

6. in purely political terms she would have lost to Obama

in the midwest, New England, the west and the south to a black man, I don't think she has a case for viability outside of New York and New Jersey.

[Yael]

4. If she goes for a scorched earth plan in the south, that will just trigger every stereotype

that people have of her. That won't play down there. Not from her, and not because she is A female, it is because too many have already made their minds up about THIS female.

[terisan]

8. She is definitely uppity....and is married to that male we call the first black president.

We did not like that kind of mixing down here. (Yes I'm one of those "down there voters'"

[Yael]

14. Please tell me this is a joke

[rox63]

5. I'm an Obama supporter, and I don't think HRC should skip any races

We need a fair fight, and we need all voters to have a chance to be heard.

[Colobo]

7. I don't agree completely, but good post anyway.

Hillary has the money and guts to keep fighting, but it will quickly become a lost cause after tomorrow.

[Perky]

9. I don't think it is lost,,,but I do thinthe aura of ievitability might kick in

[Perky]

10. I just do not see how she can make an effective appeal

either positive or negative in SCand losing by 50% or more going into Super Tuesday would be devastating, Maybe she wins New York and New Jersey but they will not be by wide margins and she be bleeding cash.

[Chef]

11. Obama/Hillary

I had a thought that if she isn't successful in NH, SC, NV, her real firewall will be Super Tuesday. However, if some states where she thought she could pull it out begin to shift to Obama it might put her in jeopardy of a poor showing in her home state. If she pulls less than 50% in NY on Super Tuesday, she then might consider pulling out but I doubt it. Going to the convention with less delegates than Obama, she might count on the super delegates to give her a chance.

[Perky]

18. Are you proposing a ticket?

There is no upside for Obama. He woulod lose uch of his bipartisan appeal.

[Sparkly]

12. Look like she'll lose both NH and SC

I'm not sure whether it's a better strategy to show up in SC though, or just move on as you say. (I don't want any of them to quit, though.) It'll be interesting to watch!

[Renew Deal]

13. I agree with your first three points

I think we're headed in the same direction if she loses NH big.

Hillary might do better to avoid South Carolina if she loses by 10% or more tomorrow. Consider the following:

First the Culinary workers in Nevada are likely to endorse Obama, and that means a third straight win for Obama.
You are also going to see alot of dems jumping on the Obama bandwagon,
You will also see a demoralized staff and people starting to look for ways to catch on with the Obama campaign.,

[dailykoff]

15. If it's more than 10%, yes,

but it probably won't be. It wasn't in Iowa and Hill is pulling out all the stops, and are her neocon friends. They 'll probably keep the damage to 8%, maybe less.

Notwithstanding, my frank opinion is the sooner she folds the more she saves of her national reputation.

[suston96]

16. Hillary needs the women in big numbers.....

...if she doen't get those in NH and her polling shows weakened support from them elsewhere then ..........

[Perky]

17. She split the woman vote on Ioaw and lost young women to Obama

[Blue_In_AK]

19. No one should drop out.

There are 50 states in this country the last time I checked.

[electron_blue]

20. Why should NH have so much say on what Hillary does?

It's early.

[Perky]

22. It is all about momentum/contagion

Hillary could have rebound in NH if she had more time, but the schedule got compressed . The Culinary workers are going to endose Obama if he wins NH that means he wins Nevada. and next up is SC where 50 percent of the dem Electorate is black.
First four states go to Obama and it is in four distinct ares of the country. Three are swing states andthe fourth is Solid red.

By the time we get to a solidly blue state it is pretty much over.

[PATRICK]

21. Can't do anything like

that. She has to soldier on and get hope from the actual campaign. Once engaged she can't stop. IF Edwards beat Obama or she got to Obama, then she is back in the hunt perhaps, but her credibility as a fighter much less a winner will be surrendered if she defects from any state now. She had her chance to avoid Iowa and NH even if that showed weakness. If she couldn't choose that then(and she plainly couldn't given her vulnerability is too real to avoid) it's far too late now. My problem with her candidacy is that she was limited in everything, especially choices right from the start, one of the most hamstrung people ever to garner front runner status in spite and BECAUSE of all the past history.

Now we see what she might have carried into the fall. And most people have always felt this in some fashion. The GOP can screw with reality from sheer illegal power. Hillary's advantages and strategies pale in comparison. Add in candidates with more appeal and less baggage and her only effective friends would be GOP strategists.

[HamdenRice]

23. Agreed. Then Obama and Edwards can have Adlai Stevenson-Eisenhower type debates

Stevenson, you may recall, was famous for raising the level of political debate to an intelligent and honorable level when he ran against Eisenhower.

Once Hillary drops out, the primary campaign would basically be between Obama and Edwards, and that would raise the quality of the debate to an exceptionally high and pragmatic level -- about the direction of the party and what actually needs to be done to restore the country. It would cease to be about "inevitablity," "Clinton restoration" or "gotcha politics," and would be about substance.