jackson_dem
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:05 PM
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Obama was up double digits in the polls |
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What happened? This has to be one of the greatest collapses in New Hampshire primary history.
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havocmom
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:05 PM
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1. Polls must have a wee bit more 'margin of error' than they let on |
MadBadger
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:06 PM
Response to Original message |
2. The polls were just wrong. |
HeraldSquare212
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:06 PM
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3. I guess they modeled his voters wrong |
Occam Bandage
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:06 PM
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4. This is an enormous failure of polling. |
99th_Monkey
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:08 PM
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More likely an enormous failure of electronic voting machines w/ no paper trail |
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or more accurately, our reliance on them to tally "results".
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Occam Bandage
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:09 PM
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99th_Monkey
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:32 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
28. Only wild deviations in ONLY Obama & Clinton numbers, but not in any other races |
kurth
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:06 PM
Response to Original message |
5. The sample was from younger voters |
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Very misleading polling snapshot.
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depakid
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
12. How in the world do you figure that? |
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Much of whatever systematic bias in the sampling would have worked to exclude younger voters.
Assuming of course that the outfits commissioning or touting the polls actually were concerned with a representative sample -or a valid and predictive set of questions & responses.
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depakid
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:08 PM
Response to Original message |
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Edited on Tue Jan-08-08 10:09 PM by depakid
Let's hope DU'ers ask themselves that question every time we see a cheap media poll... whether posted here or elsewhere.
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Botany
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:09 PM
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7. Not unless they had horrible sampling my guess is: |
K Gardner
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:09 PM
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8. All I have to say is Diebold. |
KennedyGuy
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
14. was it Diebold in Iowa too? |
elizm
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #14 |
20. Body counts in Iowa. But nice try. nt |
K Gardner
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #14 |
22. They didn't use Optical Scanning in Iowa. n/t |
Superman Returns
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:09 PM
Response to Original message |
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they liked Hillary in the debate, and then they felt sympathy after the media's focus on her emotional moment.
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RoveRage
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:14 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
17. Sympathy? Yeah, that'll win a general election. |
thoughtcrime1984
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:10 PM
Response to Original message |
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They seem to be considerably off far too often.
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Botany
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
13. Not if they are done right |
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a 14 point swing in less than 24 hours is outside of the margin of error.
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no name no slogan
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:13 PM
Response to Original message |
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The only poll that means anything is the one on election day.
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bunnies
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:13 PM
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16. What happened? Hillary cried. |
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Hats off to HRC for the brilliant political maneuver.
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Doofer
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:14 PM
Response to Original message |
18. Obama was up double digits in the polls |
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Something doesn't smell right...
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Penndems
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:16 PM
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19. Part of the fun and excitement of politics is the unpredictability of the electorate |
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Polls can be wrong, and people do change their minds right up until they cast their ballots. It's up to the candidates and their campaign teams to make sure votes for their candidates are locked up. Senator Obama won in Iowa; voters in The Granite State preferred Senator Clinton. Who knows? Maybe former Senator Edwards will take South Carolina. All three of these races are very, very fluid.
Every state and territory has its own particular (and sometimes peculiar!) brand of politics.
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NOVA_Dem
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:17 PM
Response to Original message |
21. My friend from work told me Obama was going to lose NH and here's why... |
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He came over to my cube the day after the IA caucus to celebrate the good news. He said that he has a lot of family in NH and he says they're not as "progressive" as you think (well, he called them racist mf'ers but I didn't want to say that).
My only thing is that if the polling was more or less accurate for McCain why wasn't it for the Dems?
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K Gardner
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:18 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
23. Exactly.. what you said last. Smells, doesn't it? |
NOVA_Dem
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:27 PM
Response to Reply #23 |
26. I think you're going to see a lot people hiding behind the "gender" gap n/t |
jackson_dem
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:23 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
25. This is what happened to Doug Wilder (the first black gov) |
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You may be on to something...
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NOVA_Dem
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #25 |
27. I guess when you're alone in that booth....n/t |
LittleBlue
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:20 PM
Response to Original message |
24. This shift is unprecedented in modern times |
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Never has every poll been wrong after declaring a winner outside the margin of error, afaik.
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marlakay
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:34 PM
Response to Original message |
29. I hope this tells people how fucked up |
aint_no_life_nowhere
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Tue Jan-08-08 10:41 PM
Response to Original message |
30. What is the amount of shift between the polls and the actual numbers? |
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I haven't been keeping up with the polls. Is it just one or two polls or an average of most of the polls that showed Obama significantly ahead? Hillary Clinton is three percentage points up now. How much of a percentage shift was there overall if you average all the polls?
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Fri May 10th 2024, 11:27 PM
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