Obama Could Carry the South

[Bullet1987]

Of the many reasons why Obama is the smarter choice in the General Election (Republican crossover appeal, Indie love, unity message)...something people haven't really looked at is how dramatic of an effect Obama can have in the South. Maybe it's because Obama isn't viewed as a "Southern candidate" so things like this get overlooked. It would be the first time a Black man was ever nominated by a major political party in American history. Now, Black people do vote in the South already, but never in large enough numbers to swing Southern states for the Dems. Nobody has ever really rallied their support, it was always the usual pandering. Going to a Black church, talking about the Civil Rights Movement and MLK in front of a mostly Black crowd, etc. Obama would rally the Black vote in ways never seen before I believe. Almost all Southern states would come into play...

(As of 2005)
Louisiana: 33.5% African-American
South Carolina: 30% African-American
Georgia: 30% African-American
Mississippi: 37% African-American

Those are 4 states that would come into play with Obama as our nominee. Even though some may look at the percentages and not think it's a whole lot. Remember, many of those folks don't vote. What was that people talk about about turning red states purple? In Georgia, Bush only beat Kerry by 548,000 votes. That may seem like a lot, but when you do the math and compare the percentage of AA's against the votes needed to beat Bush...it's clear it could have easily been done. There's over 2 million Black people that live in Georgia...and that isn't even considered a close state from 2004. Same thing goes for the other states too when you do the math. Remember, Bush didn't wipe the floor with Kerry...he barely beat him even after the swiftboating ads and everything else.

The South would be ripe for the picking...but only if Obama gets the nomination.

[aquart]

1. And if we remember to count the votes.

[suston96]

2. I have a tendency to agree. AAs will turn out in huge numbers.....

[jaysunb]

3. Down tickets would benefit mightily

among other positive aspects.

[thunder35]

4. if they don't try dirty tricks to prevent votes from happening

[Thrill]

5. HE WILL CARRY THE SOUTH

[BadgerLaw2010]

33. No. EOM.

[David Dunham]

6. Problem is 65% to 75% of Southern whites will vote AGAINST Obama

[JCMach1]

9. BINGO!

[Bullet1987]

11. 65%-75% Southern Whites already vote to begin with

You would need an epic white voter turnout to throw off the record Black turnout. Which is not outside of the realm of possibility, but not guranteed either. Especially since many of them would have a false sense of hope thinking their state was going to the Republicans like always.

[cali]

12. nope. not even close to 65% percent vote. n/t

[Zynx]

15. More like 85%.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/MS/P/00/epolls.0.html

That's what Bush got against Kerry.

[Bullet1987]

19. I know...the number of white voters is already high as it is

It's not likely to get much higher than 85%...there ARE white people that vote Democratic in the South you guys know right?

[Zynx]

25. My point is that we lose these states by 20% and it will be hard to overcome

that margin.

[BadgerLaw2010]

34. And you can't win down there with that block vote against you. Period.

This is just a raw math problem.

[sandnsea]

29. For a Mormon? For Giuliani?

No they won't. They'll stay home.

[BringBigDogBack]

7. I think he will carry the south

[Zynx]

16. Based on.....what?

Has anyone bothered to look at the margins we lose those states by?

[terisan]

8. It is Dean's 50 state strategy that is making the difference in rebuilding the Dem party in GA.

It is not "ripe for the picking" It is being rebuilt. ......and we don't just vote race.

[Bullet1987]

10. Trust me...if Obama were the nominee

You would see a MASSIVE Black turnout in Southern states. Red states becoming purple states...and some blue.

[terisan]

13. We are going to see massive turnout anyway. We have been rebuilding since Dean.

We have massive support for Dems.

I think you are being insulting to African American voters in the south who always turn out except in those places where they are prevented.



The lines in multicultural voting places in cities vs white rural are long and the linees are patient. We don't leave.

[Zynx]

14. I've heard this argument for YEARS.

The problem is that the whites are nearly as monolithic as the blacks in the south.

[William769]

17. Funny I seem to have missed all these people in the last two elections.

Were they all hiding under one gigantic rock?

[geek tragedy]

18. They didn't turn out like they would for Obama. n/t

[William769]

21. Like Obama did in New Hampshire?

Bullshit is Bullshit it still smells the same.

And before you say anything, I'm not talking about African Americans in New Hampshire.

Obamas biggest problem and this goes for his supporters as well, I don't see substance on Obamas policy ideas, your damn sure not seeing it in GDP. If I have missed any though please supply a link and I will be more than happy to look at it.

[Bullet1987]

20. Nobody rallies them to vote...

Only pander like I said in my OP. Obama would rally them to their feet and draw them out in huge portions.

[Carrieyazel]

22. That's NEVER going to happen. The South is not ripe for the picking.

White voters in these presidential elections in these states overwhelmingly go Repuke, and the sizable black vote is outnumbered.

Does Obama's campaign believe this? If so, It does not bode well; and shows they don't get it.

[calico1]

28. I agree.

And this is not taking into account the RW smear machine. By the time November rolls around Obama will be related to OML, whom he calls and consults, he will be a radical Muslim who's first order of business after taking office is to illegalize Christianity and turn over the country to the Muslim extremists. I would like to be optimistic about an Obama candidacy but I think some here underestimate the power of the RW smear machine and underestimate the large amount of low information, spoon fed people who will eat all this up and vote.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

23. Obama or I suspect Edwards could be the first Dems to once again

make the Democratic Party a power throughout the southern region. Still more reason to support them.

[last_texas_dem]

24. I would love to see this, but I believe it is doubtful

It is not due to a lack of turnout on the part of black voters that Republicans do so well in the south. Blacks vote at a comparable level to whites in southern states. The problem is, as another poster pointed out above, whites vote almost as monolithically Republican as blacks vote monolithically Democratic in the southern states.

Southern states do tend to have worse turnout that most other states, and you are likely right in your assumption that having Obama as the Democratic Presidential candidate would increase black turnout. However, I believe it is also unfortunately true that there would be a similar increase in turnout by white bigots and other right-wing types. Blacks already vote Democratic at very high rates in most southern states; while having Obama on the ticket could increase turnout among blacks, there isn't much room for improvement in terms of the rate at which southern blacks already vote Democratic. However, even with southern whites already voting Republican at pretty disgusting percentages, there is still room for bigoted Democrats and independents who tend to vote Democratic to swing Republican in opposition to a black presidential candidate.

I do not believe, as some do, that Obama would do substantially worse in the south than Clinton or Edwards would. I just believe that the number of voters his candidacy would excite and bring out to vote, would be balanced out by a comparable number of those driven to turn out to oppose him.

[yardwork]

26. I agree that Obama will do well in the south but not because he's black.

African Americans already vote Democratic. I disagree that there is a large untapped pool of black voters. Also, black voters don't necessarily vote for the black guy. Southern blacks love Bill Clinton, and they voted for him in great numbers and supported him through everything. Hillary has been benefiting from the halo effect of that.

I think that Obama will sweep the southern primaries because his generally conservative, bipartisan message will play well in this conservative region, among both blacks and whites.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Ron Kirk And Denise Majette Ran For The Senate From GA And TX

They were both African American and lost by double digits... And both were moderates with crossover appeal...

You need to factor into your equation that the Democrats are getting ninety percent or so of the African American vote in the south already and African Americans are voting fairly close in numbers to their percentage in the population...

I'm not singling out any candidate...All Dems would have problems in the south...

Al Gore was a son of the south and he lost every southern state except Florida* which is only a southern state by virtue of geography...

Oh, somebody brought up John Edwards...He was part of the Kerry-Edwards ticket that got shut out in the south...

Maybe VA and FL are in play...Maybe AR if Hillary is on the ticket...

[Bullet1987]

31. The Senate and the Presidency are two vastly different things....

I at least think he can make some of them purple states and closer races than you guys give him credit for.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. The Only Southern Purple States At The Presidential Level Are VA And FL

The rest of the south is solidly red...

[BenDavid]

30. oh come on folks. you realize obama just like hrc will have a plan

of what states they both need to increase the electoral vote so they can win. Hell, just take the blue states gore won in 2000 and the same as kerry in 04 and find you a couple of states i e west virgina and new mexico and there is the presidency.....If obama wins and tries to win in the south, he will walk away hat in hand. What am I saying he will lose anyway.

[Thrill]

35. You don't have to win the South to be President