South Carolina: Obama’s lead over Hillary Clinton is now 44-31

[ProSense]

Obama’s lead over Hillary Clinton is now 44-31 with South Carolina native John Edwards at just 16%. A key finding was that Obama leads Clinton 42-37 among likely female voters. His level of support among African Americans in the state is now up to 68%. Obama leads by large margins in the Low County and the Midlands, while he and Clinton are tied with Edwards just behind in the Upstate.

“It looks like the next big momentum swing in the Democratic contest is going to go in Obama’s direction,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s going to make it imperative for Hillary Clinton to have a strong Super Tuesday, or risk seeing Obama run away with it.”

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[Occam Bandage]

1. It looks like Hillary's strategy of race-baiting (and attempting to blame Obama) is failing.

[knowledgeispwr]

7. Actually, it might be working...

if the polls saying that Obama has pretty low support among white voters are to be believed.

[Occam Bandage]

9. And what, may I ask, were his numbers among whites beforehand? He has always polled poorly with

SC whites.

[jackson_dem]

12. Very good and competitive. He was about equal to Edwards with whites before this week

Now he is a distant third, 11 behind Edwards and 24% behind Hillary. He did shoot up to 68% among blacks so his strategy has worked in the short-term and should give him SC but he will pay a price on Super Tuesday.

[Occam Bandage]

13. What were the numbers beforehand?

[jackson_dem]

27. CNN poll in December

Whites: Hillary 41, Edwards 27, Obama 24
Blacks: Hillary 46, Obama 45, Edwards 5

He was competitive with Edwards among whites, sometimes even ahead of him before. Now he is eleven points behind. Among blacks he has built a huge lead, though, as Hillary's black support has fallen bigtime.

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/12/14/topsc2.pdf

[Occam Bandage]

29. So it looks like Obama went down five points in one group over a month. That doesn't seem to be

outside the standard fluctuation rate, especially given how quickly things move during primary season.

[jackson_dem]

38. He lost seven points to Hillary. Candidates have dropped out

Their numbers are cushioned by Biden and Richardson dropping out. Their support went to the three candidates. That is why you shouldn't look at how much a candidate has gained or lost compared to a month ago but how much ground they have gained or lost relative to the other candidates. Obama has went from a three point lead among whites over Edwards to being behind by eleven. He lost seven points to Hillary.

[Occam Bandage]

43. Spin it how you like, but the truth is Obama has lost only five points of support among whites.

[Joe the Revelator]

33. So he might have lost the MOE with whites

Hillarys collapse among blacks should be the big story coming out

[Occam Bandage]

36. 24/19 could be the totals of two polls in the same week. You're right; the only story here

is Hillary's alienation of yet another bloc.

[jackson_dem]

40. Out of South Carolina it will be

The problem for Obama is if this continues he may lose white support and the story to explain him getting killed on Super Tuesday may be his collapse among white votes.

[Occam Bandage]

44. Continue? LOL. Five points in a month, buddy; that's MOE. Clinton collapsed among blacks.

[jackson_dem]

46. He lost fourteen points to Edwards among whites

[Occam Bandage]

47. Who cares? Edwards is irrelevant. Obama lost five points in a month, and that's your huge collapse?

:rofl:

[jackson_dem]

54. How many of those Edwards votes would have went to Obama?

So whites moving to Edwards while Obama is losing ground is nothing unusual? Obama was competitive with Edwards all of last year with white voters in South Carolina. He even led Edwards in many polls among whites. What changed?

[Occam Bandage]

57. People shift around all the time, for many different issues. Five points in a month?

Way too many possibilities. A collapse of twenty points is remarkable. Five is statistical noise.

[cali]

67. well you can continue hoping that it will

but that's no guarantee. His white support hasn't collapsed so far, and I doubt his youthful support is in any trouble. Too bad for you.

[Renew Deal]

72. I'm sure that makes you very happy

:eyes:

[jackson_dem]

8. Not if you break the numbers down by race. Obama is a distant third with 19% among whites

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4058105

What is going to happen when he goes to states on Super Tuesday that don't have large black populations?

[Occam Bandage]

10. And that's down from what?

[CoffeeCat]

16. Obama has significant support from whites...

He just kicked ass in Iowa--a state that is 97 percent white.

He helped to increase Dem turnout by 100 percent, from the 04 caucuses,
and 04 was a record year.

Furthermore, he had a very strong showing in New Hampshire, with significant
support from white voters.

[jackson_dem]

28. That was before the last week of racial politics between him and Hillary

[Occam Bandage]

32. So Obama "loses" support within the margin of error, considering a poll that

also includes the events of IA, NH, and much else. Clinton, meanwhile, has alienated yet another voting bloc. That's a great story for the Clinton camp, right?

[stillcool]

34. That is Hillary's baby...

she struck the match, lit the fire, and fanned the flames. Looks like she's going to get burned.

[CoffeeCat]

50. As much as you might like it...

...to be true that white supporters are defecting from Obama in droves,
that's not going to happen.

The white vote for Obama in SC has remained pretty static within the past 2 weeks, hasn't it?

[jackson_dem]

56. He was at 28% a week ago

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=066ea20c-d300-48cd-a585-cc9c356df4eb&q=44162

More significantly he was only one point behind Edwards and only 9% behind Hillary.

[Occam Bandage]

59. His NH support collapsed the next day, too. It was the IA bounce fading.

And that was before Hillary's race-baiting started.

[Bullet1987]

66. You CANNOT in any way use ONE poll from ONE state

where he never had strong support amoung Whites to begin with as PROOF that he's losing White support nation-wide. LOL...

[Chomskyite]

20. What happened in Iowa?

n/t

[skipos]

37. "What'll happen in states that don't have large black pops.?" You're right he is FUCKED in Iowa!

That state didn't happen yet, right?

[jackson_dem]

48. Was Iowa before or after the last week of racial politics between him and Hillary?

Do Obamites have calenders?

[origin1286]

11. Obama's support among black voters is irrelevant

If Hillary continues to successfully racialize this campaign and his support with white voters continues to drop he will lose.

Hillary doesn't give a damn if Obama has 100% black vote.

[Occam Bandage]

14. And the day after South Carolina, the story will be back to Obama's momentum. Hers is

a short-sighted strategy.

[William769]

15. Like it was in New Hampshire?

[Occam Bandage]

18. Day after NH, it was all about Hillary regaining momentum, as it should have been.

Obama's Iowa bounce began to fade as Hillary became an empathetic figure, she won, and changed the narrative overnight.

[William769]

22. My point being in this thread anyone who is using polls

Is doing so at their own peril. That goes for any candiates supporter.

[Occam Bandage]

26. I think we can go back to letting the standard

"...unless there are yet-invisible trends that will manifest themselves after the event horizon of polling day" disclaimer be unsaid.

[RaleighNCDUer]

61. Let's pretend that Hillary did not have a 20pt lead in NH prior to

IA, but won NH by only 2pts.

Funny, I read that as an 18pt DROP for Hillary, even if she did win.

That's why she's been so desperate since then - she actually knows how to read the polls, and they aren't looking good for her. Thus, the flailing out by her campaign, trying to find something that will work.

[William769]

65. Facts are facts.

[RaleighNCDUer]

68. Yep.

And the fact is she went from a solid lead to a win in a squeaker in a matter of 10 days.

Her support is a mile wide and an inch deep and the more people hear of her supporters' racial tactics and the silliness in NV, the more people will jump ship from her.

[William769]

69. You just hold onto that thought.

Was Obama not like 10 to 14 points ahead the day of the election? :rofl:

[ProSense]

17. "Hillary doesn't give a damn if Obama has 100% black vote."

Are you serious?

Black votes down count? She'll win the state with only white votes?

[origin1286]

19. No

But she'd easily win the nomination if Obama had 100% black vote but only 19% of white vote. She has already said her strategy is to make this go national. If Obama is only pulling 19% of whites in each state and Hillary is pulling 43%+, it doesn't matter if Obama has 100% of the black vote.

Her racialization strategy is working perfectly if these numbers are too believed.

Obama's support among blacks will go up but his support among whites will go down. If that happens, guess who wins?

[ProSense]

21. Overall: "Obama’s lead over Hillary Clinton is now 44-31"

That's all that matters!

[origin1286]

25. In South Carolina...

I don't think Clinton cares if she loses SC.

She's going to take NY and NJ on Feb 5th.

Obama is going to win Illinois.

Cali is the key. Assuming Obama wins there...

It will come down to March 4th with Ohio and Texas.

Guess who wins those 2 states if Hillary dominates among whites? (Hint: Ohio is 84% white)

The wild card is Edwards and when he drops out.

[ProSense]

31. "I don't think Clinton cares if she loses SC."

She just might!

Blue Jersey: Jersey City has Obama fever!

[origin1286]

35. I don't see Obama taking NJ

But if he does manage to steal NJ from Hillary, it would be a major coup.

[Bodhi BloodWave]

While i think Clinton will win NY, she will be forced to spend valuable resources there

And if Obama gets around 15-20% that could mean around 50 extra delegates for him, the better he manages the more delegates he gets which is good for him(and i am quite sure she will have competition on keeping NY)

The fact that he managed to get on all 28 or 29 delegate slates without having to rely on paid help is quite impressive as well

[Drunken Irishman]

55. Clinton better care about winning So. Carolina.

That's the last primary that counts before Super Tuesday. If Obama wins Nevada and then takes South Carolina, the talk will be how he has some really big momentum heading into Super Tuesday. And while Hillary did a decent job cutting into that momentum in New Hampshire, it'd be far more difficult doing it at a national level.

[Joe the Revelator]

30. This is ONE southern state, where Obama never had a large % of white votes

Do you have any other proof that he's losing white voters in any other state?

[origin1286]

39. None at all, but...

I'm just pointing out that Clinton's strategy is to sacrifice the black vote in order to make this a racial war.

Let Obama have the blacks. She doesn't need them. She'll take the whites.

She'll try to reconcile after she gets the nom.

It's a sickening strategy.

[knowledgeispwr]

45. If that's how it plays out...

she's gonna have a tough time "reconciling." There are a lot of people upset/disappointed by her campaign's tactics and they are going to be super apathetic come November.

[RaleighNCDUer]

62. I think you are making the mistake of comparing black v white

national demographics, not comparing black v white DEMOCRATIC demographics. Blacks may be 20% of the national population, but are better than 40% of Democratic voters. A candidate that loses 100% of the black vote, loses.

[William769]

2. And what was his lead over her in New Hampshire?

[fujiyama]

3. I'm not going to rely on the polls anymore

but I sure hope this is true.

I am disappointed by Edwards poor showing. I think he would be the best hope for working class people of all races.

[jackson_dem]

51. He has a chance at second in South Carolina

If he can win the white vote, which he is within striking distance of doing, and closes the gap among blacks. He is only 15 points behind Hillary among blacks now. That would be unthinkable even two weeks ago. If Hillary keeps the race thing going she will drop by default among blacks. Good campaigning can help Edwards even more. I would not be surprised if Edwards beat Hillary among the black vote in two week's time.

[RaleighNCDUer]

71. You do recognize that he is not going for the white vote or the black

vote.

He is going for the progressive Democrat vote - which is being neglected by both the other leading candidates.

[babylonsister]

4. I love it! nt

[usregimechange]

5. Amazing number!

[Joe the Revelator]

6. If he's leading amoung southern woman, its time for Hillary to start worrying

nt

[stillcool]

23. Boomerang... n/t

[Big Blue Marble]

24. So that then is Hillary's Southern Strategy.

She is betting that she will lose in SC, but if she can demonstrate that Obama can not get the white
vote, she wins even though she loses. Nice.:sarcasm:

What ever it takes, What ever it takes. That is Hillary's motto.

[Barack_America]

42. No wonder she is pulling out the dirty tricks in Nevada.

An Obama victory in Nevada would quickly shoot that theory to shit.

[Barack_America]

41. What happened to the WOMEN VOTERS??

"Obama leads Clinton 42-37 among likely female voters."....Ouch!

But she had such strong female support in NH! What's going on? Do you mean to tell me that all women don't vote the same?? :eyes:

If this trend continues in more Southern and Midwestern states, Hillary's chances in a general election approach zero.

[dailykoff]

49. That's what the machines are for.

And apparently SC is rigged and ready to flip votes.

[ursi]

52. Although I am sad to see JE still trailing, I am elated to see Obama kicking ass!

[JanusAscending]

53. Cool...............now if only S. Carolinians

know how to COUNT THE VOTES !!!

[Just-plain-Kathy]

58. I have a feeling this campaign will be a real tug-of-war.

The more the race evens up, the more money collected for candidate support ----> the more money for candidate support --> the more money goes to our MSM.

[CatnHat]

60. If polls are any indication

of the real facts, look what just happened in New Hampshire. I wouldn't put too much stock in any poll right now, even the media is staying clear; they learned the hard way; predictions are tricky. What really bothers me that race/gender issue has become such a hot button issue, the real issues are not being addressed; and if they are; their being pitted against each other. I know this goes on with every primary; but never at this level. If Obama is about change and unity, its curious that his supporters are anything but; and by the looks of this board, and if Clinton is about experience, why not capitalize on this instead of trying to defend issues that will only create more division. Just a thought.
:shrug:

[Just-plain-Kathy]

63. Welcome to the DU CatnHat...

...I don't think there are any real hot button issues because America isn't paying attention. :(

[CatnHat]

64. Thanks

While I agree most people don't pay much attention to the real issues; I always believed that the responsibility of getting the real issues out there are the candidates. If this bickering goes any further, the democratic party will implode, and lo and behold, another republican president; then our country will surely loose; not Obama or Clinton; they'll still have their cushy jobs and life goes on . . . .:hi:

[RaleighNCDUer]

74. The polls showing a huge lead in NH were only reflecting a bounce

out of IA. Ten days earlier, Hillary had a commanding lead in NH.

What we actually saw in NH was Hillary taking a nose dive over a ten day period, to win with a squeaker of 2 pts. It was not a comeback, it wasn't a change of a trend, it was a skin of her teeth win.

In SC, OTOH, Hillary has not had a commanding lead. It's always been a tight, three-way race there, so any strong movement in the polls now is probably more accurate than the vacillation we saw in NH.

That said, the only polls I really trust are exit polls. So, let's just wait and see.

[suston96]

70. A 13 point lead...that's a wipe-out - just like in New Hampshire.....

[dailykoff]

73. And when those late-evening "exit polls" start showing Hilly creeping ahead,

and they will, just like New Hampshire, some talking head on CNN will claim the racial dust-up obscured the real trend which was for Hillary.

And everybody here will K&R it. MARK MY WORDS.