Folks, bookmark this thread: Clinton will win Nevada handily.

[calteacherguy]

Now, I know this isn't what you would expect from an Obama supporter, but I'm a realist. Reid owns the political machine in Nevada, and his son is leading Clinton's effort there. Furthermore, hispanics aren't going to vote for a black man, at least not many of them. I know that sounds crass, but that's the way it is. That's reality.

Best we can do is hope for a big win in S.C. to give us some momentum. Because of S.C., we still have a chance, although Clinton is obviously still the most likely to win the nomination.

Still, that shouldn't cause us to give up hope. We must fight the good fight no matter what! Onward!

[ZinZen]

1. I usually like your posts

but what makes you thinks she has the nomination all wrapped up? If so, lets just throw in the towel and not bother supporting Obama since from your premise it is inevitable she will win anyways?

[calteacherguy]

3. She doesn't have it "all wrapped" up, but the odds are with her.

I still believe we can overcome the odds! But as for Nevada, well...I'm calling it like I see it, sorry.

Still, it's important Obama does well there. Hopefully we can at least keep it close!

[DJ13]

2. I think you drank the Hillary Kool Aide

Hillary will lose by over 5%.

[FrenchieCat]

4. Don't underestimate Obama's organizational skills......

and although I understand that he's going against the Clinton machine and all of those who want to get back to doing what they were doing 8 years ago.......don't rain on my fucking parade! :(

[calteacherguy]

5. I'm not giving up hope, just being realistic.

As far as Nevada, it's going to be all Hillary. Can we still win the nomination? Yes we can!

:hi:

[ronnykmarshall]

6. Hey Teach ....

Are you feeling ok?

:silly:

[Joe the Revelator]

7. Oh ye of little faith, you make me sick

This entire post is just...


The only thing that makes sense is that you're trying to lower expectations, which is stupid because you're only talking to DU.

[Sparkly]

8. You don't have to lower expectations when your guy's ahead.

:P

[calteacherguy]

11. Obama is NOT ahead in Nevada.

Reid's political machine is strong there, and it's not very likely it can be overcome. They have the vote there so organized for Hillary it's almost a shoe-in. A caucus is all about who shows up to vote, and while Obama has a lot of enthusiasm among some supporters, Hillary will win it on organization.

Like I said, bookmark this thread. Hispanics LOVE the Clintons. They will not let them down, and will be a deciding factor in the race.

Plus, Nevada doesn't have a very big African American community. Can's seriously expect him to do as well there as in South Carolina. Oh well.

[loveangelc]

16. Hillary is up by 9 points in this new poll...

http://www.lvrj.com/breaking_news/13871382.html

[JackORoses]

20. that poll was only of that newspaper's subscribers

Obama leads in 2 other polls conducted recently

[Barack_America]

22. Really? I did not know that....n/t

[loveangelc]

24. how do you know that? just wondering.

[dominickdon]

9. I think you are lowering expectations

IMO.

[angie_love]

10. Obama has a hard long fight ahead

I believe Hillary has the edge, but Obama shouldn't give up hope.

[Bread and Circus]

12. I'm feeling that way too. I think it was all a foregone conclusion

from the start. Iowa was an anomaly and Obama failed to galvanize that momentum.

I just sense the winds aren't blowing in his favor.

/sad it is.

[Colobo]

13. Have faith, cal. We have what it takes to win.

[politicasista]

15. I hope your right Katz

:hi:

[FrenchieCat]

14. Who did you say would win Iowa?

and the New Hampshire?

Just askin'

[robbedvoter]

17. I think so too - although it will be close. Union members are not machines.

They'll vote for either of the 3.

[David Zephyr]

18. If Obama wins Nevada, it will be a huge upset because Clinton is favored.

We'll see.

[Barack_America]

19. You don't think that the caucus format affects this at all?...n/t

[Skwmom]

21. The old Clinton meme that Hispanics won't vote for Obama. Well then how has he

gotten Hispanic endorsements?

[Barack_America]

23. I don't think this is as neat as you say.

1). This is a caucus format, which I think changes things (for example, apparently Obama won hispanics by a small margin in Iowa)
2). You have to assume that Clinton and Edwards would be splitting those hispanics voters who aren't comfortable voting for a black man
3). Hispanic voters could comprise just 6% of the electorate (wonder how man of those are Culinary Workers?)
4). Mo Denis, a hispanic legislator in Nevada has endorsed Obama
5-10). Culinary Workers, Culinary Workers, Culinary Workers

Here's a link to the article where I got the facts about Hispanic voters (I think you might enjoy it)
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/politics/ny-usdems0118,0,51868.story