Worthless predictions post for NV caucuses

[cali]

There's no way to post an accurate prediction based on polling- NH demonstrated that, and NV is even riskier as it's a first time caucus state, but what the hell.

My prediction is based largely on gut feeling, and I wish my gut weren't telling me what it is. Hopefully I'm wrong. Here's my prediction:

Clinton- 37%
Edwards- 31%
Obama- 29%

[tekisui]

1. Does the Nevada caucus follow the 15% threshold rule?

I doubt it would have much effect one way or the other, only Kucinich will get less than 15.

My worthless prediction:

Edwards wins one!--35
Obama--33
Clinton--32

[cali]

6. roughly follows it- I've heard that it's not uniformly 15% but

I don't really know. Still, in some caucuses, one or the other of the major 3 might not get to the threshold.

[Crazy Dave]

2. Mine

1. Clinton

2. Obama

2. Edwards

Sorry, no % guess. Good luck to all three.

[ColesCountyDem]

3. Mine:

Obama-- 38%
Edwards-- 35%
Clinton-- 27%

But who the hell knows, right?

:+

[meegbear]

4. Switch Edwards and Clinton and you have mine ...

Obama takes this one, Edwards then takes South Carolina.

[MadBadger]

5. WIth the AF Amer. Support forming around Obama like it has, Edwards won't stand a chance in SC.

Especially if Obama wins Nevada. Not only would he have the momentum, but he already has a decent size lead there, and African Americans are going to him in huge numbers. He should get at least 30% of the total vote in African American support alone.

[cali]

7. kick

look's like I got the order right, but not the numbers. Spread between O and C might not end up too far off.