Independents are not all created equal. Those who argue that McCain takes Obama's edge in Independent voters, may not be accurate.
There are different reasons why a voter will declare him/herself to be unaffiliated with either party. That is, there are Independents who lean Democrat who are not interested in voting for a pro-war candidate. These Independents who have voiced disatisfaction with our presence in Iraq, are not Independents that are likely to support a candidate who is pro-war, but likely to support a candidate who was wise enough from the beginning not to support this war. These are Independents likely to vote for Obama.
There are also libertarian type of independents who believe in strong defense and nothing more. These types tend to lean Republican, and are the Independents that would likely swing McCain's way.
The few Independents that may go back and forth from Obama to McCain are those who believe that government is broken. Obama offering a new approach to government may sway them as much as McCain promising to stop the pork. Obama's advantage are his communication skills, and how effectively he would present his case. The Health Care proposal that Obama presents may be what brings him over his way.....as these folks are not against good government, simply do not believe in wasteful and bloated government.
Independent voters are also those voters whose specific political affiliation is not represented by a political party, or who subscribe to an ideology other than those which are espoused by major political parties, such as socialists, libertarians, communists, or monarchists.
While many political pundits believe that
independents either hold centrist views or views that are not properly represented by the major political platforms, in polls many independents state that they identify as independents
because the Democratic and Republican Parties are too partisan and/or governed by special interests.Most
independents claim that party loyalists do not think for themselves. Independents believe that political parties dictate what the voter should think by providing an ideology and platform to follow, which does not allow for original use of the voter's mind
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_(voter)
Example of an Obama Indie Voter vs. a McCain Indie Voter--and why McCain Indies would more likely switch to Obama than an Obama voter switch to McCain:
While as of 2006 approximately 38% of Americans identify as independents in national polls, only 1 out of the 535 members of Congress, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, is Independent although Sanders does openly claim to be a Socialist. After losing the Democratic Primary in the state of Connecticut, Joseph Lieberman ran as an Independent and was elected by the state to continue to serve as Senator.
Obama is a progressive, but is not perceived as an extremist in reference to his social values, i.e., he is a Christian who attends church and believes in a blend of good government and personal responsibility (evidenced by his statement that the African-American community needs to do more for their children...in particular, African American fathers). Obama is perceived to be an original thinker who wants to chart new course, because the old one is broken.
On the other hand, McCain is seen as having very conservative social values, and is an anti-choice candidate who would appoint conservative judges.
A Bernie Sanders Independent would never be attracted to McCain, but a McCain moderate Indie might find appeal in Obama's "no lobbyist-ready for a change" type of appeal.
Wood, Welch and McClure all describe themselves as political independents. Wood is a classic swing voter, while Welch and McClure generally side with one party. They represent two of the five types of independents revealed in a new, in-depth study by The Washington Post in collaboration with the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University.
The new survey underscores the Republican Party's problems heading into 2008. Fueled by dissatisfaction with the president and opposition to the Iraq war, independents continue to lean heavily toward the Democrats. Two-thirds said the war is not worth fighting, three in five said they think the United States cannot stabilize Iraq, and three in five believed that the campaign against terrorism can succeed without a clear victory in Iraq. http://thenexthurrah.typepad.com/the_next_hurrah/2007/07/fighting-over-t.htmland Hillary beware....Many Indies will simply choose to stay home rather than to vote for you.
One of the important things that must be considered when talking about Independents is the
difference between Lean Independents and Pure Independents.Lean Independents tend to be more politically active and are more knowledgeable about the individual candidates than those who claim to be weak members of a party. Lean Independents tend to be more partisan in their voting habits than weak democrats or republicans during most elections and are only surpassed in partisanship by strong party members. Pure Independents on the other hand tend to be the least politically active and the least politically informed out of voting population. While they claim to be the most independent of thinkers, whose ideas are not tied up in partisan politics,
it has been shown that pure independents do not care enough nor know enough to get involved on either side of the spectrum. The 2004 American National Election Study shows that only 54% of registered independents voted in the 2004 Presidential election. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_(voter)
Conclusion: Independents who vote for Obama are not generally the exact same ones that would vote for McCain.
The key with Independent voters, is for them to have someone to VOTE FOR.
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