NJSecularist
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Tue Jan-22-08 10:38 PM
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Should Obama leave South Carolina for a day or two? |
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The South Carolina Primary is on the 26th. He still 3 days left of campaign left before that date. The latest polls show that he has a double digit lead in South Carolina.
In Super Tuesday states like California, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Arizona among others, it's a much different story. Hillary is completely dominating these states. Obama needs to make inroads in these states if he wants to have any chance at getting the nomination.
My question is... should he leave South Carolina a day or two to campaign in an important ST state like California, or should he stay in South Carolina and play it safe and make sure he wins the state?
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Fredda Weinberg
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Tue Jan-22-08 10:39 PM
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1. How sad. Sorry, but this may be his last hurrah. Let it be the best |
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it can. One for the history books.
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NJSecularist
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Tue Jan-22-08 10:42 PM
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2. So you'd rather him win South Carolina decisively... |
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than worry about Super Tuesday states?
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Fredda Weinberg
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Tue Jan-22-08 10:45 PM
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3. For posterity, yes. Let him give this his best and impress n/t |
NJSecularist
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Tue Jan-22-08 11:01 PM
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4. There is still a week before Super Tuesday |
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After South Carolina. He will have time to campaign. He could get an early start though tommorow in California and make in-road in that hugely important state.
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Occam Bandage
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Tue Jan-22-08 11:03 PM
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5. I think any campaigning he does in CA would be too-little-too-late; CA is enormous |
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and changing the course there one rally at a time would be like stopping a freight train by blowing on it. His best bet, I think, is to absolutely trounce Clinton in SC (among both whites and blacks) and then hope to get some surprise momentum mojo cooked up.
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Barack_America
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Tue Jan-22-08 11:28 PM
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Rumor has it that he will stay in SC and campaign primarily in "white areas". From what I hear, Obama is most compelling when you hear him speak in person. If he can get more white votes, it would send a strong message to southern states for Super Tuesday.
Believe it or not, after the debate, there is also the possibility that Hillary could come in third in SC. That obviously would be a big boost to Obama.
If Obama gets a sizable victory in SC (and reports suggest that he will), there will likely be another flood of endorsements. There is speculation that Kennedy will endorse Obama, and his endorsement, combined with Kerry's would be a big boost for Obama in Massachusetts. Realistically, California, Arizona, New York and New Jersey probably won't happen. But there are plenty other states in the Midwest and South in which Obama can expect to do well (and win in many).
Then it come down to the delegate issue. So far Obama has received more delegates in each of the primaries. This is because he appeals to voters in rural areas, which tend to be weighted higher in delegate counts. Obama can expect to do well in similar areas throughout Super Tuesday. As a result, he will rack up a considerable number of delegates, even in states he does not win.
So, in summary, keep the faith!
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NJSecularist
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Tue Jan-22-08 11:43 PM
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If Obama isn't going to head over to a Super Tuesday state, he is going to need to make crossroads with the white community and really start to target that base. He's not going to win Super Tuesday if he loses the white vote like he is in South Carolina.
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Barack_America
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Wed Jan-23-08 11:08 AM
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8. Don't forget that they've only released (recent) polls for 3 Super Tuesday states... |
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...all expected Hillary strongholds. For most of the Southern and Midwestern states we have no clue. And those are the states where Obama can expect to do well for a variety of reasons, including their strong hatred of Hillary Clinton.
And even in the states he doesn't win, he will win delegates, as I mentioned.
It's all good.
If Hillary weren't worried about Super Tuesday, why would she leave SC and risk coming in 3rd, in order to visit her ST strongholds? There's a thought for you.
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