Prediction - Obama Comes Within 5 Points Of Hillary In New York

[THUNDER HANDS]

I think he'll do well in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Upstate New York and Suffolk County. Hillary will be strong in Nassau County, and Westchester and Queens.

I'm predicting a final result of 45-40-5 for Hillary, Obama and Edwards.

[jkshaw]

1. Do you think Ted Kennedy's

endorsement and campaigning for him might even bring Obama up to 45, with Hillary at 40 or below? I don't know right now where the polls put Hillary and Obama right now. But I wonder if it's possible?

[Dogmudgeon]

2. Let's see what the media wants

If they bash on Hillary for nine days, chances are good that she will win by 75 points.

If they decide to make Obama their goat, then he may even carry the state.

Nobody is being fooled by the media circus. They want to see substantive discussions of policy and proposals. If they can't get that, then they will vote against the media, whether they support Obama or Clinton.

--p!

[tekisui]

3. That'd be something, I hope you're right.

[book_worm]

4. I don't know if it will be within five points but he will do pretty well and win a lot of delegates

in Hillary's homebase.

[paulk]

5. I believe NY is a "winner take all" primary

[lurky]

7. Nope.

Proportional.

[kevsand]

8. I don't think it can be a "winner take all,"

since the DNC essentially banned those as part of the reforms begun in 1972. Under the current rules, I don't think there are any "winner take all" primaries on the Democratic side, nor have there been for a very long time.

The Republicans still use them, but not the Democrats.

[paulk]

11. yeah, you're right... it used to be and the Repub one still is

It's not strictly proportional however, 150 of the delegates get chosen that way, another 130 get chosen by the state party...

That would probably give Hillary something of an advantage.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

10. We have no winner-take-all primaries. The DNC banned it. nt

[paulk]

6. Obama will not do well in upstate NY

what are you basing this on?

my prediction is a Hillary win by 10 - 15 points.

[annie1]

9. not a chance. she'll beat him by 10