SteppingRazor
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:00 PM
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Prediction: Super Tuesday will not decide our candidate. March 4 will. What say you? |
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(March 4 primaries include Texas, Ohio, Vermont and R.I -- a total of 444 delegates)
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thereismore
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:02 PM
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1. Maybe even then - who knows what the super delegates will do. nt |
tekisui
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:03 PM
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2. Super Tuesday will assuredly not decide. |
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By March 4th 81+% will have been pledged.
I hope we know then. If we don't by then, I don't think we will until the Convention.
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Radical Activist
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:05 PM
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3. Feb 9 or 12 might do it. |
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Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 02:05 PM by Radical Activist
If somebody wins all but three or four states on 2/5 then that will be the presumptive nominee. Anything close to an even split and you're probably right that Feb 5 won't decide it. But there are enough states left on Feb 9 and 12 that it will probably be decided before March.
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SteppingRazor
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:07 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
4. But given that there's not a single winner-take-all primary on the Democratic side... |
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do those wins matter as much? If all the races are extremely close, then won't the delegate count remain low on both sides?
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Radical Activist
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:18 PM
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6. It isn't just about delegate count. |
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Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 02:42 PM by Radical Activist
Its about the perception that someone knows they aren't going to win the nomination so they had better drop out for the good of the party. I know there's a lot of talk about this being a race for delegates, but it isn't.
If one candidate can say "I won all but four of the 2/5 states" that will be as important or more important than who wins the most delegates. In fact that could happen if Hillary gets a lot of delegates out of New York and CA but then loses a majority of the other states. The delegate winner and the winner of the most state primaries could be two different people. That wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Benhurst
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:15 PM
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5. I'll be waiting with bated breath. |
SPKrazy
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:19 PM
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SteppingRazor
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:23 PM
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8. I sense the presence of an Edwards supporter. |
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;)
Seriously, though, you've got my sympathies. I just figured that maybe it would be nice to have a discussion that didn't center on Edwards dropping out or to whom his supporters will now flock.
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Debi
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:24 PM
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but who knows anymore :shrug:
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goodhue
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:27 PM
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10. I think it will be decided when Obama wins Wisconsin on February 19th |
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Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 02:29 PM by goodhue
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rinsd
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:28 PM
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11. Not likely. If one candidate wins say 20 out of 24 states, delegate count will not matter |
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It will be about momentum.
And between 2/9 & 2/12 another 428 delegates are up for grabs.
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VolcanoJen
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:32 PM
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The most conservative part of Ohio, too, Cincinnati.
And I'll be working my ass off for OBAMA!!!!!!
By the way... the ads have started trickling on to local TV. So far, I've seen a bunch for Huckabee and a bunch for Obama.. but nobody else. Strange.
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CoffeeCat
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:42 PM
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13. This might have been true before today..... |
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Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 02:44 PM by TwoSparkles
...but not now, with Edwards being out of the race.
I am guessing (and obviously I could be totally off the mark) that Edwards will endorse one of the Dem candidates in the mother of all endorsement events.
Edwards and this candidate will stand together, in a major event--much like the Kennedy endorsement.
Edwards will make it clear to his supporters that his agenda will live on through this candidate.
This candidate will step forward to give Edwards supporters (and the rest of the country) obvious and very public assurances that Edwards will play a key role in their administration.
The buzz will be all about Edwards being a vp.
Edwards has all of the power right now... His endorsement--if it indeed comes before Super Tuesday--will propel that candidate over the top and secure him/her the nomination.
There's a reason Edwards did all of this before Super Tuesday. He knows what's at stake. He knows that he has leverage right now--going into Super Tuesday, that he won't have after Super Tuesday is decided.
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Radical Activist
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
15. He did that last time. |
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But he may not want the VP slot this time. If he doesn't want it then he might not make an endorsement until there's a clear nominee. :shrug:
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CoffeeCat
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Wed Jan-30-08 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
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Edited on Wed Jan-30-08 03:03 PM by TwoSparkles
...but why do this before Super Tuesday, when you've been saying all along that you're in it until the end.
I'm just speculating, but I am guessing that he wants to make a big impact before Super Tuesday, and he wants to use his endorsement as leverage, while he still has it.
If there is a clear front runner after Super Tuesday, Edwards' endorsement after Super Tuesday wouldn't carry as much weight.
Right now, his endorsement is pure gold. Edwards can use the power he has now to ensure that he is an important part of the next administration.
I can't imagine that he wouldn't want the vp slot. The second in charge, to the leader of the free world...not a bad gig.
I know...we're all guessing at this point. It's maddening!
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Radical Activist
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Wed Jan-30-08 03:10 PM
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that taking the VP slot is his last chance for elected office. He won't be taken seriously if he runs for President a third time. I also have a hard time seeing him running for Governor or Senate back in NC again. He moved pretty far left since he was elected there before. Where else does he go from here?
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Little Star
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Wed Jan-30-08 02:43 PM
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Renew Deal
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Wed Jan-30-08 03:13 PM
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18. Classical Super Tuesday |
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That's the old Super Tuesday. I think you might be correct. And Obama should unleash his ground game on those states.
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