An average of 20% are undecided in California - this will decide the race.

[NJSecularist]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

Of the 5 polls, the average of undecideds in these polls is 20%.


Since we can assume that this race will be a dead heat, it's where these undecideds go that will decide the race.

Will they go to Obama? Hillary?

[saltpoint]

1. That is quite a few folks in any primary election and quite a few individual

totals for California.

I wonder what parts of the state that 20% is coming from?

[NJSecularist]

2. Probably all parts

Who really knows. Maybe Southern Cal?

[saltpoint]

5. Hi, NJSecularist. Beats me. But that is a huge percentage just a couple days

out.

It would be really fun to be a field reporter for the primary contest in California right now.

[Liberty Belle]

11. I'ved talked to a lot of Edwards supporters now on the fence;

debating whether to vote for Obama or cast a protest vote for Edwards.

Obama and Hilary are also both out stumping hard and some people who have heard one or the other speak have changed their minds. I was working a political booth at a mall today and talked with hundreds of voters, and not too many seemed solid in their choices.

I think this speaks to the strength of our field, but also to dismay among many at having Edwards exit the race.

[saltpoint]

12. Interesting take. I love your last sentence, by the way.

California's always sharp and interesting in elections. And they're one of the spotlight states on Tuesday, that's for sure.

[Colobo]

3. I hope the First Lady's endorsement sways them to Obama.

[MadBadger]

4. Obama's got the MO.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

6. They'll break for Clinton. They aren't drinking the Kumbaya-Aid

[BootinUp]

7. Must be a good portion of Edwards voters there

I generally think Hillary will get most of his supporters, but that could be different depending on the State.

[MadBadger]

8. Sunday morning was a good day for Obama with all those Newspapers.

[Herman Munster]

9. nobody reads newspapers anymore

[NJSecularist]

10. Herman is in denial

Obama is catching up. He may even win in Hillary's firewall.

[UALRBSofL]

16. Hillary will get a good bump out of her Town Hall Meeting

GOMAMA GOMAMA

[loveangelc]

20. LOL. Um...we'll see.

[Dogmudgeon]

13. It's great to support your candidate but ...

... if I was an Obama supporter, I'd have white knuckles over this.

The primary elections are NOT done deals. The fact that almost all of Obama's lead was picked up in two "bursts" indicates that there is still a lot of voter volatility.

There is no denying that Obama has momentum -- a hundred or more endorsements from the MSM and Democratic mugwumps, and the temporary suppression of anti-press cynicism have helped a lot. But that could disappear -- and return -- three or four times before the convention.

The same obviously applies to Team Clinton. But today, it's the Obama camp that is overconfident. And when you're being gamed by the media, it's not wise to take an early victory lap on their track.

Nobody gets to rest, especially with so much ad money at stake.

--p!

[NJSecularist]

14. It's the Obama camp that is overconfident?

ROFLMAO

It was Hillary on Fox News Sunday today taking about debating with McCain once she won the nomination.

If anybody is overconfident, it is Hillary, Mark Penn and her entire camp and supporters.

[Dogmudgeon]

15. Look around

I don't see many Obama supporters around here who aren't in full gloat.

You also seem to have not gotten what I was saying. Nobody can assume victory -- the MSM is controlling the details. They want a full primary season with lots of people interested in the contest.

Simply saying you're going to win is putting on your "game face". Obama does it as well. It's SOP in politics. And if anybody isn't worried about Tuesday, well, they ought to be.

--p!

[NJSecularist]

18. Look around this entire board

Both Hillary and Obama supporters are gloating equally.

[Dogmudgeon]

19. That is impossible

Obama supporters outnumber Hillary supporters about 3-to-1.

But some of the Hillary supporters are, indeed, gloating. And they might lose.

Barack Obama is not gloating. He is not thinking, "this is a cakewalk". If he is, he's a fool. And Barack OBama does not strike me as a fool.

Bush did that at the start of the Iraq war. Even to the use of the word "cakewalk". Everybody should fear having a "Mission Accomplished" moment.

--p!

[onehandle]

17. Or they won't show up. Undecideds are less likely to make it to the polls than decideds. nt

[Major Hogwash]

21. As Howard Cosell would say - you have a tremendous grasp on the obviuos!

Gee, who woulda thunk it!

LoL

[loveangelc]

22. I may be biased but I think Obama. Only because he's seen more as the "challenger"

and undecideds usually break for them if I remember correctly....