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My Super Tuesday Analysis-Obama ahead in 11/Clinton in 5/Rest Too close to call

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Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 05:35 PM
Original message
My Super Tuesday Analysis-Obama ahead in 11/Clinton in 5/Rest Too close to call
Edited on Mon Feb-04-08 05:37 PM by Tropics_Dude83
I've looked at the state polls and have been completely objective. I base these predictions on state poll results only, not on the ground game and quirks that local state analysts might know that I don't. However, going by the state polls only, I have the following:
1. Alabama-Obama lean
2. Alaska-Obama lean but Mike Gravel could pull an upset.
3. American Samoa-In states with no polls, I assume a Clinton victory so this is C.
4. Arizona-Too close to call-Arkansas-strong Clinton
5. California-Too close to call
6. Colorado-Obama
7. CT-Obama
8. Deleware-Too close to call
9. Dems Abroad-Again no polls and Clinton has huge global support so I say Clinton here
10. Georgia-Obama strong
11. Idaho-Obama strong
12. Illinois-Obama strong
13. Kansas-Governor endorsement so Obama lean
14. Mass- too close to call
15. Minnesota - No data whatsoever so too close to call
16. Missouri-too close to call to lean Clinton
17. New Jersey-Clinton
18. New Mexico-Possible Obama lean
19. New York - strong Clinton
20. North Dakota-Strong Obama
21. Oklahoma-strong Clinton
22. Tennessee-strong Clinton
23. Utah-strong Obama

A race that goes past 2/5 seems HIGHLY likely.
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harun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 05:44 PM
Response to Original message
1. I think Obama will be in the lead from here on out but will likely
still go to the Convention just because of the way the Primary rules work. Then they will have to work something out at the convention.
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Qutzupalotl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I wonder if that would give us a combined ticket
Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton.

That's probably the only way it would ever happen. I just hope there's not too much blood spilled to allow it, because I could get behind either one.
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harun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. After the results of the Primaries tomorrow we will probably know
better the likelihood of an Clinton/Obama ticket.
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