http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/02/09/hillary-may-have-the-edge-in-maine.aspxHillary May Have the Edge in Maine
A lot of us in the press, including me, have looked at Maine on the primary calendar, noticed it was a caucus state, and basically put it in the Obama column as a result.
Now it's true that caucus states tend to reward the extensive organization that Obama excels at. On the other hand, there are a lot of white working-class people in Maine--and, judging from the results of New Hampshire and Massachusetts (look at "high school graduates" and voters making under $50,000), Obama seems to have problems with the New England version of this demographic. (Even in Connecticut, which Obama won, Hillary killed him among "high school graduates"--55-41--though he returned the favor among college graduates.) Whether or not Barry Bonds's diagnosis of the situtation is apt, I can't say. But what's clear is that the terrain isn't super-favorable for him tomorrow.
. . .
Update: Yeah, Maine looks pretty good for Hillary. In the 2004 general election, about 60 percent of Maine voters made less than $50,000 per year. By comparison, only about one-third of New Hampshire voters made less than $50,000. In both cases, Bush won 44 percent of that group, so we're looking at a lot more (almost twice the proportion of) working class Dems in Maine...
--Noam Scheiber