Andreshunter77
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:11 AM
Original message |
Breaking Florida Rasmussen poll: McCain leads Obama by 16% (not a typo, 16%) |
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Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 12:13 AM by Andreshunter77
I don't think Hillary has a chance to catch up with Obama in the primaries, so I will only cite these numbers by Rasmussen regarding Obama vs.McCain, in a poll just released and conducted on February 16th. McCain: 53% Obama: 37% Obama does very well in other states in polls conducted at the same time. What is happening in Florida? http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/florida_2008_presidential_election
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Alexander
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:12 AM
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1. Outlier. Most polls have him within striking distance. |
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Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 12:12 AM by Alexander
Plus, the fraud in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006 has convinced many of us that our electoral fortunes lie in places other than Florida.
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woolldog
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:14 AM
Response to Original message |
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either of our candidates has a chance in Florida. Best to focus on other states.
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Andreshunter77
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
6. It may have been a mistake in Rasmussen's methodology |
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Obama was trailing McCain in this state by 2% just about 5 days ago in Rasmussen. I cant' recall anything significant happening that may have tipped the balance so drastically in less than a week.
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woolldog
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
18. yeah I remember seeing that. |
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Still don't think Hillary or Barack have much of a chance there. Edwards could have won Florida, but he's the only democratic contender who had a chance.
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Dr.Phool
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:14 AM
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3. Florida has the stupidest electorate in the country. |
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Nothing down here would surprise me any more.
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NJSecularist
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:15 AM
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Coexist
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Tue Feb-19-08 10:31 AM
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NJSecularist
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:15 AM
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4. Florida is a lost cause |
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with either Hillary or Obama.
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Barack_America
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:18 AM
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9. With McCain running, I agree. |
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If there were to be an electorate that would look favorably on him, that would be the place.
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FrenchieCat
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:16 AM
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7. McCain campaigned up and down Florida..... |
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Barack didn't set foot in the state. He is largely an unknown there. McCain is well known.
It won't be that way once Barack gets in there......mark my words.
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Andreshunter77
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
11. well, that doesn't explain why Obama trailed McCain in FL by 2% a week ago |
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How can the lack of campaigning in FL have hurt Obama just the last week? It's not like McCain went to FL a week ago and yelled "vote for me! not for Obama!" and left.
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nonconformist
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:38 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
25. Yeah, they don't have TVs, or newspapers, or computers in Florida.... nt |
MadBadger
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:16 AM
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stahbrett
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:19 AM
Response to Original message |
10. Obama hasn't campaigned in Florida like he's done in the other states |
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Just wait until he campaigns - Obama has this habit of making big poll leads for his opponents disappear.
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Andreshunter77
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
17. In order to make a person's lead disappear, that person needs to be hated by the media |
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Hillary Clinton was the perfect target, because the media helps her opponent by scrutinizing every word coming out of her mouth. McCain won't have that problem. Trust me.
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thereismore
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:20 AM
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MadBadger
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:20 AM
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13. Obama will lose Florida |
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No thanks to Senator Nelson and the Democratic Operation down there.
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cooolandrew
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:20 AM
Response to Original message |
14. Oh Florida, I listen to the Guy James show and he says it's the reddest state in the union... |
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Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 12:30 AM by cooolandrew
... Not to say there are no Democrats there but I get the feeling they are outnumbered.
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mrreowwr_kittty
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #14 |
22. I lived in Orlando for 2 years. |
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Republican Ground Zero there, I swear to god.
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thoughtcrime1984
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:20 AM
Response to Original message |
15. I am not worried. Bookmark this sucker. |
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Obama wins the Presidency with 52%+ of the popular vote. Wins Electoral College comfortably. Bank it.
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CTLawGuy
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:21 AM
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16. Florida is one of the few states trending red |
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over the past 8 years. this is sadly to be expected.
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Recursion
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:32 AM
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19. I don't see FL being in play for either of our candidates |
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I'm not remotely saying to give up, just that we need to look past our "four corners" strategy of the past 16 years.
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ShortnFiery
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:35 AM
Response to Original message |
20. Am I experiencing Deja Vu? Wasn't the EXACT same topic covered earlier today? |
McCamy Taylor
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:36 AM
Response to Original message |
21. Obama has not campaigned in Florida, sillies, because of the early primary. |
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Where he goes, he wins voters. If he is the nominee, he can go campaign.
However, Florida is pretty damn redneck. I would go for some midwest states that have been hit hard by the economy first.
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Andreshunter77
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #21 |
23. But Obama was tied with McCain in Florida last week |
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At least statistically, trailing McCain by 2% in Rasmussen itself. How can you explain that this suddenly turned into 16%? He wasn't campaigning there last week either.
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billyoc
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:37 AM
Response to Original message |
24. Florida. Old people and their parents. nt |
dysfunctional press
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:41 AM
Response to Original message |
26. well- it's obviously because they won't seat the hillary delegates from florida... |
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i mean- that's what they've all been saying would happen if the rules were upheld, right?
should we surmise that it's started...? :shrug:
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Ivote
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Tue Feb-19-08 01:33 AM
Response to Reply #26 |
still_one
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Tue Feb-19-08 12:41 AM
Response to Original message |
27. In all fairness you should have listed Hillary's numbers against mccain in florida |
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which put her six points behind mccain
However, because of what florida has done to itself in recent years by electing jeb, and their republican legislature, the only thing I can say is that if they are still supporting mccain, especially with the housing and economic situation there, then they deserve exactly what they are getting
Of course, I am not referring to those who are caught in the middle of this insanity, and never voted for the republican in the state
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AndyTiedye
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Tue Feb-19-08 01:15 AM
Response to Original message |
28. There Are No Electoral Votes for Us in the South — We MUST Win Ohio, Somehow |
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Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 01:15 AM by AndyTiedye
Neither of our candidates is viable in the South. We have to find our electoral votes elsewhere. The southwest would be promising if we weren't running against McCain, who is a favorite son there.
That leaves the coastal blue states and Illinois — the states Kerry won — and Ohio. We MUST win Ohio. There is no way either of our candidates can possibly win the Presidency without Ohio. We also have to run the table on the states Kerry won. We can't afford to lose any of them.
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MrRobotsHolyOrders
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Tue Feb-19-08 01:20 AM
Response to Original message |
29. You won't cite the Hillary numbers |
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Because they're barely better than those for Obama.
Florida is going to be an uphill climb. Thank goodness Obama will be putting Virginia, Colorado, Montana, Missouri, Georgia and a host of other states in play.
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Obamaman2008
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Tue Feb-19-08 01:25 AM
Response to Original message |
30. 2 months ago Obama was 20 points behind Hillary n/t |
Orangepeel
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Tue Feb-19-08 01:37 AM
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32. We're not going to win Florida no matter who is the nominee |
lapfog_1
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Tue Feb-19-08 01:44 AM
Response to Original message |
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with links to theoretical match up data. Obama is clearly the better choice. FL looks to be difficult for both. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4646083
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lurky
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Tue Feb-19-08 02:31 AM
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McCain has the crusty old snowbird vote sewn up.
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Sulawesi
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Tue Feb-19-08 10:23 AM
Response to Original message |
35. McCain will play better to elderly voters, FL demographic not great for O. |
Occam Bandage
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Tue Feb-19-08 10:24 AM
Response to Original message |
36. Same reason Hillary won FL. Obama hasn't campaigned there. |
Araxen
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Tue Feb-19-08 10:29 AM
Response to Original message |
37. Florida voted Jeb Bush in |
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They aren't too smart over there.
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karynnj
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Tue Feb-19-08 11:04 AM
Response to Original message |
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I think McCain will win Florida. The Cuban American population likes McCain - probably even more than they did Bush.
The group that likely makes the difference between Obama and HRC now is the Jewish population. As seen on other DU threads, there is a RW hit piece focusing on the Jewish population. It implicitly hits the fact that Obama is not a neo con. In the course of an election, those negatives could be countered - by attacking the core assumption - that the PNAC ideas help Israel. In fact, they have made it at more risk.
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