Fun thread: Predict how many people will show up to my Texas precinct caucus!

[crispini]

I am a Texas precinct chair. I am trying to guess this right now. Your guess is as good as mine. Join the fun! Let's all guess! I will post the results on the day after the election because I'm sure as heck going to a party and get drunk after my caucus. The person who gets the closest to the actual number of voters that show up, without going over the number, is the winner!

Winner gets .... A NEW CAR! .... um no... a PONY.... no ... a lollipop. No. A lock of my hair which I am tearing out. :crazy:

Here is some basic information about my precinct:

- About 3000 voters on the poll book in the precinct. Some of them are probably in the process of "expiring" off the rolls, because....
- 2527 have voted in at least 1 general election since 1996
- 427 have voted in at least 1 democratic primary and 1 general election since 1996
- 143 people voted in Democratic primary in 2004
- In the 2006 governor's race, we had:
---- 559 votes for Chris Bell
---- 505 votes for Rick Perry (Republican)
---- 376 votes for Kinky Friedman (I)
---- 166 votes for Carole Strayhorn (I)
---- 11 votes for the Libertarian candidate
Edited to add: In 2004, we had 515 votes for John Kerry.

- I have already 144 people from my precinct vote in the Democratic primary in 6 days of early voting. There are four more days to go.

Edited to add: I had 10 people show up for the caucus in 2006.

If all the Bell people and all the Kinky people vote, I'm guessing I might get 900 who vote D in the primary. But how many of them will show up at the caucus on election day?

Edited again to add: For purposes of the game, you must post a number, not a percentage. I will be doing enough math on election day and will refuse to do any more math for a week after that. :D

Only one entry per person, decisions of the judges is final. Do not fold, spindle, or mutilate. Contents may explode under pressure.

[JI7]

1. i would say between 600-900

[JimGinPA]

2. 400

:shrug:

[crispini]

3. You people are scaring me already.

I'm going to the school tomorrow and ask if I can move it to the gym. I think the auditorium might be too small. It's a primary school. :crazy:

[dkf]

7. My state party gave me 40 ballots and 6 pages of sign in

sheets with room for 5 people on each page.

At the end of the night I had 126 ballots cast and had to have people sign in all over the sheet, wherever they could find a space.

We ran out of democratic party applications and someone had to go xerox more.

We were busting out of the cafeteria and one precinct had to meet outside.

Lastly, it was HOT.

Better to overestimate.

I say 1016.

[lojasmo]

43. 500-600

[crispini]

5. I have edited my OP. Feel free to re-post your guess as a number.

:hi:

[Tatiana]

4. This is like the Price is Right! 1001 n/t

[gristy]

6. hmmm. you've asked for both a number and a %, so I'll give you both

146 and 16%

[crispini]

8. I fixed it. Thanks.

:hi:

That would fit in the auditorium. Barely. Hmmmm.... :think:

[texas_indy]

9. Hum, how about a lot more than you plan for!!

We were going to wait till 3/4 to vote but after hearing all the reports in DFW about the early reporting, we decided to vote early tomorrow and get it done to avoid the crowds on 3/4. And it will eb the 1st time we'll attend the caucus so we're looking forward to the experience.

Texas is going big time for Obama! VIVA OBAMA!!

[Kittycat]

10. How many voted early in 2006?

[crispini]

12. It doesn't look like I can get that information.

The link to download the report of the archived election results by early voting breakdown is there, but it's broken. Doubt they'll fix it anytime soon. I'm sure they have other thing they're worrying about at the moment. :D

[blogslut]

11. That's really two questions

How many will show up on election day AND how many will show up to caucus.

I say 1025 will show up to vote - maybe over all, including early votes.

I say you get 132 show up for the caucus.

:)

[Flabbergasted]

13. 7,323,403.

[crispini]

16. Oh, STOP.

Are you trying to give me a heart attack?

:spank: :rofl: :evilgrin:

[grantcart]

14. can you tell me what congressional district your are in ?

[crispini]

17. Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson. Is that 30th? I think so. nt

[grantcart]

19. 432

CONGRESSWOMAN EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON ENDORSES BARACK OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT
February 6th, 2008 · 4 Comments
Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson who represents Texas Congressional District 30 has endorsed Senator Barack Obama in the Democratic Presidential race. In a statement sent to Dallas South, Rep. Johnson explains how she came to her decision.

Senator Obama’s campaign has generated interest in young Americans who have never before been involved in politics.

“Almost two years ago, I endorsed John Edwards before any Democratic candidates declared their candidacy.” said Congresswoman Johnson. “I remained loyal to that commitment until he left the race.”

It seems the Texas Democrat was swayed by the enthusiasm Senator Obama has brought to the race. “Senator Obama’s campaign has generated interest in young Americans who have never before been involved in politics,” she said. “American needs these young people not only for their vote in this election, but for their continued participation in the future of our country.”







http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/3720/proj3ai8.



432 People will arrive and enter your caucus on time
21 Will arrive late and bang on the door to be let in
12 Will go to the wrong address or wrong caucus
8 Will show up on Wednesday at the correct time
1 Jimmie "Showboat" Williams will be driving on south 14th street when he gets a flat tire. He will run 18 blocks and will get there after the doors close.

A preliminary vote had been taken of 331 for Obama and 101 for Clinton.

However since he was bringing the cookies there will be a motion to let him in. It passes unanomously. However the 21 people outside still pissed that they didn't get in liberate most of the cookies from Showboat. Learning that there will not be enough cookies to go around the mood turns ugly. Showboat jumps on top of the table and breaks into a stiriing rendition of "Yes We Can" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY.

Now Maria Sancez starts chanting Si Si Puede. Everyone joins in and the caucus is carried unananomously.

These computer models are pretty good aren't they?


Based on all of the other caucus reports I have read I would definitely move it into the gymnasium and then also have a couple of back up rooms in mind for overflow

[crispini]

24. LOL!

Best prediction yet. :rofl:

[WolverineDG]

51. Just looked at your baseline projections

only a 3% difference between Clinton & Obama & that was before they got here? :wow:

Wonder what that looks like NOW???

dg

[KhaOZ]

15. Here in Wyoming, in Cheyenne alone, they're expecting over 1,000 for Obama. They just switched to

a bigger place to hold everyone. I was in the room, and a little old lady who's an Obama supporter stood up and said "this is our time, if 20 of us give just $100, we can get big enough place for everyone", and next thing you knew, the Dem. guy in charge of getting the place for the caucus, had $2,000 to get the Civic Center here, heh. It was pretty cool.

[pop goes the weasel]

18. 30

I can't go to the precinct convention this year because of work, but I know several people who are intending to go who have never gone before in their lives. In general, I think there will be three times as many people going to the caucus as usual.

[grantcart]

20. How about the winner gets a session with the pink fuzzy handcuffs?

[crispini]

25. hee hee hee.

:evilgrin:

[cali]

21. 659

pulled right out of thin air.

[Johnny__Motown]

22. You only had 10 in 2006? well I will guess 123, and Clinton gets less than 15%

[grantcart]

23. As the saying goes "Your going to need a bigger boat"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4751924

[TexasObserver]

26. I'll go with 1085 Democratic votes in your precinct, Crispini

[crispini]

28. Votes? Or attendance at the caucus?

:hi:

1085 votes, I am not scared of. If 1085 show up at the school on election night to caucus, I am not sure that they would fit even in the gym. :scared:

[TexasObserver]

50. I thought we were guessing votes. Caucus? No idea, except more than your precinct has ever had.

Whatever the record is, double it.

[crispini]

27. .

:kick:

[WolverineDG]

29. $1

oh wait, crap....wrong game show ;)

I'd say about 100 folks at your precinct convention.

I had 2 at mine in 2004. With a 100% increase, I'll have 4 this time. halp!!!


dg

[crispini]

33. Ahahahaa.

How big is your precinct? I don't know why I have such a huge precinct, most are smaller than mine. When do they redistrict these things, anyway?

[WolverineDG]

36. Not sure

but it includes both cemeteries. :rofl:

Haven't seen my stats from the local party chair yet & I've been agitating for them for weeks now. :grr:

dg

[crispini]

38. Bummer. That's the nice thing about the county having everything online.

Want stats? Go get them yourself. :D

I was at the planning meeting for the Senatorial District convention for 16. We were talking about a location, which by law has to be in the boundaries of the SD. We were looking at the map and we found out that SD-16 includes Love Field. So we were actually contemplating asking Southwest to let us use a hanger. :rofl::rofl:

[WolverineDG]

39. ...

:spray: :rofl:

dg

[robbedvoter]

30. Depends. How many GOP-ers have you got?

[crispini]

32. In the 2006 governor's race, we had 505 votes for Rick Perry (Republican)

I doubt the "true" Republicans will show up, though. They have local races they want to vote on in THEIR primary.

[sonias]

31. 100 people come to your caucus

I hope I'm wrong and low balling it. I think it would be neat to be overrun with people, but I also know some people won't follow through. Just getting some people to vote is huge. Especially those that haven't voted in a while.

I expect your total number of voters will be huge. Maybe you get 1,800 people of your 3,000 to come out. Some of them still vote republican. Of the Ds. maybe you get 1,300 total.

I would hope that all those early voters are so fired up, they would come back to the caucus and vote again. They know they should, but there is always some drop off - for whatever reason.

Prepare for 200 but I think 100 would be fabulous too!

Good luck!


Sonia

[crispini]

34. That sounds about right, prepare for 200.

I think 100 would be amazing. More than we have ever had in a long time.

It's funny how I keep revising it up. I started off thinking 50. But every time I hear someone talking about the caucus on the radio or news I'd start revising it upwards. :D

[Lone_Star_Dem]

35. Kind of a hard question considering how different every election you have to go by isn't similar

Then factor in that I've spoke with a lot of Dems who've never caucused before and didn't even know we do a caucus at our precinct convention. Some didn't even know what a precinct convention was...things get even tougher since they've now heard about this amazing thing we do and think they too may want to give it a try.

Hmmmm. The we factor in all the press we've gotten and the fact that there's a bunch of angry Dems in Texas who are chomping at the bit to get their voices heard...I think you're looking at a number of people at or near 45.

My first figures came up with 32 (which would be an amazing and mind boggling improvement) but I decided to raise it just a bit cause it's better to have more than not enough provisions. :D

Good luck!

[crispini]

37. I'm really enjoying the diversity of estimates in this thread.

You're right, it's one big guessing game.

I'm definitely going to go on the high side based on my knowledge of my neighbors. One neighborhood in the precinct is very liberal, very well-informed, but a bit crack-potty. (See all those votes for Kinky Friedman up there? :crazy:) The other neighborhood is very well-off, professional, and we have a lot of lawyers and judges. Both "types" of folks are exactly the "types" of folk that will come out to a caucus. So I'm going high, whatever I finally decide. :D

[Lone_Star_Dem]

40. I gave you an estimated 1075 actual votes

And based on that using a model of the local Democrats I know. Not a very motivated bunch in my precinct though. You go by your gut and what you're reading in the pulse of your local Dems.

Do you know if you've had an increase new registered voters? If so I'd feel safe in assuming most of those are going to be added to your column.

[crispini]

41. That I don't know.

No way of finding out either. Ah well.

This is going to be fun. :crazy:

[CoolOnion]

42. K&R, and I guess 40

This is based on turnout I've observed since 1992. Even in big turnout years, most people either don't know about the precinct convention, or don't care to be involved at that level.

[Arugula Latte]

44. One Meeeellion People!!!

[NoPasaran]

45. I'm going to guess 95

And honestly, I'm hoping that's a high figure. It's still more than enough to fight over 37 delegate and 37 alternate slots.

[crispini]

48. Yes, my one hope, if it's high, is that most don't want to stay.

And if everyone has to get up and give a little speech about why they want to be a delegate, we'll be there all night, so I may suggest small groups or something.

Or fight club. Everybody who wants to be a delegate, in the ring. :evilgrin:

[NoPasaran]

59. My precinct gets 61 delegates plus 61 alternates

I dread the idea that that many people will show up. We had about ten people last time. Damn this relevance!

[Coexist]

46. 142.

[Jersey Devil]

47. The big question is how many will be wearing costumes

I am betting the Kinky people show up wearing Muslim clothes.

[intaglio]

49. 650 was my first choice but

seeing some of the returns from Wisconsin lets go to 1,300

[thevoiceofreason]

52. 114

BTW, how many delegates does your precinct get?

It should be the numbe of 2006 Chris Bell votes/15

[crispini]

54. 37 delegates

and 37 alternates. :hi:

[thevoiceofreason]

62. I have 2685 reg voters in my precinct

19 delegates (and 19 alternates), so I am expecting about 50 people. We are starting to get a strong late break for Obama. Our call-backs to undecided former democratis voters (we're calling off of a double d list) show a 3/1 break in his favor (heavy red west Houston)

[crispini]

63. Only 50? I keep going back and forth about how to play this.

If I only get 50, we can stay in the auditorium and be (somewhat) more comfortable. There are chairs, albeit small ones. If we have more than that we'll need to go to the gym.

Maybe I'll start off rounding them up in the auditorium and use the gym for a fallback.

My precinct is just so damn Democratic, and they are so activist, too. I just go back and forth and back and forth.

[grantcart]

53. Now that you have several hundred people obsessing on putting on

those handcuffs can you send us pictures of the rooms that you plan on using?

Of course we all want to read your blog and see photos of the actual event.

[crispini]

55. Ahahaha, ok!

I'm going by the school tomorrow and I'll try to take some.

I'll try to post here some on election night with my iPhone if I can manage to keep it charged. I may be too busy to do much liveblogging, but I'll certainly come by the next day with the 'results' thread. :D

[IDemo]

56. We had 8,290. With luck, you should be able to double that!

http://garyogrimm.blogspot.com/2008/02/democratic-caucus-boise-idaho-too-full.html

[crispini]

57. Oh, lordy, I hope not.

Actually there are only 2500 voters in the precinct, but if they all show up, they won't fit in the gym. :crazy:

[TexasObserver]

58. Crispini, I didn't read your OP well when I first posted. I'm going to take another look at it.

[crispini]

60. UPDATE: The gym has been booked!

:bounce: Still no pictures yet. Probably Monday for those.

[crispini]

61. UPDATE: Early voting for my precinct (drumroll please).....

265 as of Tuesday.

Go, little precinct, GO!

[CC]

64. I might plan for at least 10 times as many as the

last one after hearing the early voting numbers. If people are excited and wanting to feel like they are a part of history you might want to up that to 20 times or more higher than average turn. Good luck.

[EFerrari]

65. 1200 and I hope you have a parking consession!

:woohoo:

[Emit]

66. Is it an open caucus - open to Repubs, Indies, etc.?

Or only Registered Dems?

[TexasObserver]

67. OK. I'm ready for the caucus number. I'll go with 285.

[TheDoorbellRang]

68. 1263 people. That's my guess

I hear y'all do things big in Texas, after all. :hi: