book_worm
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:08 PM
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I think Obama and Clinton will split the March 4 primaries |
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I think Obama will win Texas and Vermont and that HRC will win Ohio and Rhode Island. Then it's on to Pennsylvania, with a few contests along the way.
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julialnyc
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:09 PM
Response to Original message |
1. I think Obama will take 3 |
rox63
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
10. I think RI will probably go for Clinton, and VT will go to Obama |
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I think both TX and OH will be close. But if Hillary doesn't win at least one of them by a significant margin (double digits), she won't gain much. Certainly not enough to catch up with Obama in pledged delegates.
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grantcart
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Mon Feb-25-08 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
26. Press Release from the Clinton campaign |
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Rhode Island,
Officially known as State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations is the state that is most equipped to decide who should be our next president for the following reasons:
-Rhode Island was the first of the thirteen original American colonies to declare independence from British rule
-Rhode Island is one of the most reliably Democratic states during presidential elections, regularly giving the Democratic nominees one of their best showings. In 1980, Rhode Island was one of only 6 states to vote against Ronald Reagan
-In the 1984 Reagan landslide, Rhode Island provided Walter Mondale with his 3rd best performance
- Rhode Island was the Democrats' best state in 1988 and 2000 and 2nd best in 1996 and 2004
-Rhode Island gave John Kerry a greater than 20 percentage point margin of victory (the third highest of any state) with 59.4% of its vote
-All but three of Rhode Island's 39 cities and towns voted for the Democratic candidate
-The Fox show Family Guy takes place in a fictional town in Rhode Island named Quahog
-The nautical nature of Rhode Island's geography pervades its culture. Newport Harbor, in particular, holds many pleasure boats
-A now defunct professional football team, the Providence Steam Roller won the 1928 NFL title
-Fort Adams, on Narragansett Bay, was the setting for the finish of Eco-Challenge 1995.
If Sen. Obama is not able to win in this one of the most Deomocratic States of the Union which is famous for its cultural, athletic, ecological leadership then he should to the party and the country a favor and quit the race
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rox63
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Mon Feb-25-08 06:52 PM
Response to Reply #26 |
37. It's also the smallest state in the country |
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You can drive across the state in under an hour. That doesn't put it a particularly influential position. If Hillary is planning her campaign around winning RI, she is the delusional one. :crazy:
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cloudythescribbler
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Mon Feb-25-08 07:22 PM
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If Hillary loses either OR if she wins both by narrow margins, then basically it's game set & match |
cloudythescribbler
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Mon Feb-25-08 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
38. If Hillary loses either OR if she wins both by narrow margins, then basically it's game set & match |
scheming daemons
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:09 PM
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2. Um... if they split, she'll concede...... |
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...according to Carville and her husband.
.....or are you moving the goalposts again?
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book_worm
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:11 PM
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6. I'm an Obama supporter who wrote what I think will happen |
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why the snarky reply to me about moving the goalposts again? p.s. I don't think Hillary will concede.
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scheming daemons
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
12. Sorry... my bad.... sounded like a Hillbot lowering expectations..... |
HeraldSquare212
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Mon Feb-25-08 04:28 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
25. They have started doing that. |
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Now they're saying she just can't lose both TX and OH - like Gov. Cozine did this morning.
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democrattotheend
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:09 PM
Response to Original message |
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And I am not sure what happens after that. I think if Clinton loses both Texas and Ohio, she will be pressured to drop out. But if it's a split decision who knows?
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Drunken Irishman
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:10 PM
Response to Original message |
4. If they split, Clinton is done. |
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She can't afford a split to move on. She needs both Texas and Ohio to even create the illusion she's still in this race. Without both, especially if they're not by wide margins, she will become the Democrats version of Mike Huckabee.
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RiverStone
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Mon Feb-25-08 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
36. Very true - and Bill Clinton and James Carville both agree with you... |
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Really - if she loses TX alone it's history. Bill and James said she MUST win both TX and OH to stay in the race.
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Greyskye
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:10 PM
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5. If they split then Obama has won |
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She has to do better then that to stay in the race.
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DJ13
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:11 PM
Response to Original message |
7. I believe Obama also takes Rhode Island |
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Doesnt matter though, if Clinton can do no better than split Texas and Ohio she will be finished.
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GodlessBiker
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
15. Is RI more like MA or CT? |
Little Star
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Mon Feb-25-08 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
28. RI is like MA. Definatly not like VT or CT. |
grantcart
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Mon Feb-25-08 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
29. Press Release from the Clinton campaign |
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Rhode Island,
Officially known as State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations is the state that is most equipped to decide who should be our next president for the following reasons:
-Rhode Island was the first of the thirteen original American colonies to declare independence from British rule
-Rhode Island is one of the most reliably Democratic states during presidential elections, regularly giving the Democratic nominees one of their best showings. In 1980, Rhode Island was one of only 6 states to vote against Ronald Reagan
-In the 1984 Reagan landslide, Rhode Island provided Walter Mondale with his 3rd best performance
- Rhode Island was the Democrats' best state in 1988 and 2000 and 2nd best in 1996 and 2004
-Rhode Island gave John Kerry a greater than 20 percentage point margin of victory (the third highest of any state) with 59.4% of its vote
-All but three of Rhode Island's 39 cities and towns voted for the Democratic candidate
-The Fox show Family Guy takes place in a fictional town in Rhode Island named Quahog
-The nautical nature of Rhode Island's geography pervades its culture. Newport Harbor, in particular, holds many pleasure boats
-A now defunct professional football team, the Providence Steam Roller won the 1928 NFL title
-Fort Adams, on Narragansett Bay, was the setting for the finish of Eco-Challenge 1995.
If Sen. Obama is not able to win in this one of the most Deomocratic States of the Union which is famous for its cultural, athletic, ecological leadership then he should to the party and the country a favor and quit the race
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Hutzpa
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:12 PM
Response to Original message |
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:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:
:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:
:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:
:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:
:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:
:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:
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Coexist
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:13 PM
Response to Original message |
9. I read that Hillary is still pretty far ahead in RI |
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why do you think he will win it? Genuine question.
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book_worm
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
11. I wrote that I think Hillary will win RI and Obama will win VT. |
Coexist
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
16. darn it - I asked in the wrong part |
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I meant to ask a responder, not the OP - Sorry.
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rox63
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:15 PM
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13. I'm an Obama supporter, and I think Hillary will win RI |
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It's politically very much like Massachusetts, its bigger neighbor to the north. Obama will definitely win VT. And I think he may take both TX and OH. But they will be close races.
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mohc
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:15 PM
Response to Original message |
14. Based on the latest polling |
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I think Obama is going to take OH, TX, and VT while Clinton takes RI. The gap is just too narrow in Ohio and has been trending in Obama's direction. He is well ahead in Vermont and in a dead heat already in Texas. The latest poll from Rhode Island shows the gap large enough that Clinton will probably be able to hold on to her lead there, but my guess is that it will be her last and only win after Super Tuesday. Losing Ohio and Texas by any margin would be nothing short of the death knell for the campaign.
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WyLoochka
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:24 PM
Response to Original message |
17. Obama will win Wyoming |
loveangelc
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:26 PM
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18. No, its over for hillary if she loses TX and OH. I promise you it will be. |
HiFructosePronSyrup
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:27 PM
Response to Original message |
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But a split means Obama wins the nomination.
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NJSecularist
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:30 PM
Response to Original message |
20. Rhode Island is her firewall state |
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If she loses Ohio, Texas and Vermont, but wins Rhode Island, she will be able to move on.
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loveangelc
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
22. lol I hpe you're joking |
grantcart
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Mon Feb-25-08 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
30. Press Release from the Clinton campaign |
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Rhode Island,
Officially known as State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations is the state that is most equipped to decide who should be our next president for the following reasons:
-Rhode Island was the first of the thirteen original American colonies to declare independence from British rule
-Rhode Island is one of the most reliably Democratic states during presidential elections, regularly giving the Democratic nominees one of their best showings. In 1980, Rhode Island was one of only 6 states to vote against Ronald Reagan
-In the 1984 Reagan landslide, Rhode Island provided Walter Mondale with his 3rd best performance
- Rhode Island was the Democrats' best state in 1988 and 2000 and 2nd best in 1996 and 2004
-Rhode Island gave John Kerry a greater than 20 percentage point margin of victory (the third highest of any state) with 59.4% of its vote
-All but three of Rhode Island's 39 cities and towns voted for the Democratic candidate
-The Fox show Family Guy takes place in a fictional town in Rhode Island named Quahog
-The nautical nature of Rhode Island's geography pervades its culture. Newport Harbor, in particular, holds many pleasure boats
-A now defunct professional football team, the Providence Steam Roller won the 1928 NFL title
-Fort Adams, on Narragansett Bay, was the setting for the finish of Eco-Challenge 1995.
If Sen. Obama is not able to win in this one of the most Deomocratic States of the Union which is famous for its cultural, athletic, ecological leadership then he should to the party and the country a favor and quit the race
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Greyskye
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Mon Feb-25-08 06:22 PM
Response to Reply #30 |
TheDonkey
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Mon Feb-25-08 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #20 |
33. lol, RI is one of those big blue state firewalls that will suggest she can WIN the GE |
TexasObserver
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:31 PM
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21. nah, she's finished next Tuesday |
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They'll have carted her off in a strait jacket by April 22nd.
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cali
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Mon Feb-25-08 03:32 PM
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23. nope. the clinton camp knows that if the lose either TX or OH |
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it's over. they haven't even made plans past march 4. And he's now only 4 to 11 pts back in Ohio. I think she'll only win RI.
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EmperorHasNoClothes
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Mon Feb-25-08 04:26 PM
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24. Remember that Hillary has to win every remaining state by 57% |
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just to even up the pledged delegate count. A total less than that in any state will only increase the percentage she has to win the remaining states by. Breaking even in OH and/or TX will push her required win percentage for the remaining states up into the 60's.
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Independent-Voter
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Mon Feb-25-08 04:29 PM
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27. Fair enough. RI looks solid for HRC, and Ohioians are known to pick the wrong candidate (see: Bush) |
TheDonkey
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Mon Feb-25-08 06:24 PM
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32. If there is a split, the primary season will be over. |
Dinger
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Mon Feb-25-08 06:25 PM
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RamboLiberal
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Mon Feb-25-08 06:31 PM
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35. You may be right - but she needs both and by big margins |
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or she will be more behind in delegates. Of course she may go on and try to lead this in to a convention fight which I think she's going to lose. But she may well split the party.
Even if she prevailed in a convention fight there's no way in hell she'd win the general cause I can't see African-Americans and many other Obama supporting and voting for her. w/o them she may even lose some battleground blue/purple states.
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